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Structured Finance Public Finance Tax Supported / U.S.A. Manhattan, Kansas General Obligation Bonds New Issue Report New Issue Details Ratings New Issues Sale Information: $5,930,000 General Obligation Bonds, Series 2015-A, and $5,290,000 General Obligation Bonds, Series General Obligation Bonds, Series 2015-B, scheduled to sell competitively on Nov. 17. 2015-A AA+ General Obligation Bonds, Series Security: The unlimited tax general obligation bonds and notes are secured by Manhattan’s 2015-B AA+ Outstanding Debt (the city) full faith and credit and its ad valorem taxing power, without limitation. The Unlimited Tax General Obligation transportation development district (TDD), sales tax special obligation revenue (STAR) and tax Bonds AA+ Temporary Notes AA+ increment financing (TIF) bonds are secured by the city’s pledge of legally available funds, Sales Tax Special Obligation subject to annual appropriation, cash-funded debt service reserves, state and local sales taxes Revenue Bonds AA– and incremental property tax collected within designated development areas. Taxable Sales Tax Special Obligation Revenue Bonds AA– Senior Lien Special Obligation Tax Purpose: Bond proceeds will be used to redeem previously issued short-term debt that funded Increment Funding Bonds AA– various city capital projects. Transportation Development District Sales Tax Bonds AA– Final Maturity: Series 2015-A: Nov. 1, 2035; series 2015-B: Nov. 1, 2027. Key Rating Drivers Rating Outlook Stable Regional Economic Engine: The city serves as the economic and cultural center for the region, which includes Fort Riley and Kansas State University (KSU). Regional economic prospects are strong, with continued assessed valuation growth, low unemployment rates, above-average per capita personal income and notable economic developments projected to come online over the long term. Sound but Declining Reserves: The city’s finances are marked by conservative budgeting and a reliance on economically sensitive sales tax revenues. Fund balance levels remain adequate. However, further deterioration in the city’s financial flexibility may result in downward rating action. Strong Management: The city’s financial management is strong, with frequent and robust financial, economic and debt reporting, careful cost controls, conservative budgeting of economically sensitive revenues and a good expenditure cushion should revenues underperform. High Debt Burden: The city’s debt burden is high but has declined in recent years. Pension Related Research payments are rising but will remain low. Fitch Rates Manhattan, KS ULTGO Bonds ‘AA+’; Outlook Stable (November 2015) Appropriation Debt Rating: The ‘AA–’ rating on the TDD, STAR and TIF bonds reflects the city’s commitment to appropriate annually for debt service and the lack of a security interest in and non-essentiality of the financed projects. Rating Sensitivities Financial Flexibility: Fitch Ratings expects the city to maintain its long practice of conservative budgeting. Maintenance of strong financial flexibility is a key mitigant to Fitch’s Analysts concerns about high debt and dependence on economically sensitive revenues. Any Monica Guerra +1 646 582-4924 deterioration in the financial profile would likely cause a downgrade. [email protected] High Debt Levels: Fundamental to the ‘AA–’ rating is the expected reduction of debt levels over Eric Friedman +1 212 908-9181 the intermediate term due to city issuance of new debt at a slower pace and the rapid [email protected] amortization of outstanding debt. Continued high debt levels could pressure the rating negatively. www.fitchratings.com November 17, 2015 Public Finance Rating History Credit Profile Outlook/ Manhattan is located in northeastern Kansas in Riley and Potawatomie Counties, roughly Rating Action Watch Date AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/10/15 55 miles west of Topeka. The 2014 population estimate of 56,078 increased 25% since 2000 AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/12/14 through both real gains and limited annexations. AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/13/14 AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/15/13 AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/15/12 Regional Economic Engine AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/11/12 AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/9/11 The city’s stable economy is anchored by Fort Riley, a military base with 21,065 military AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/2/10 AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/14/10 personnel located 10 miles west of the city limits, and KSU, with roughly 24,500 students AA+ Revised Stable 4/30/10 located within the city. In the long term, the city is anticipating additional economic growth AA Downgraded Stable 11/3/09 AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/14/09 associated with the construction of the U.S. National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility (the facility), AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/18/08 which broke ground in 2010 and which management projects will be fully operational around AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/19/08 AA+ Affirmed Stable 11/2/07 2020. In the short term, construction activity related to the facility will benefit the city. AA+ Affirmed Stable 5/10/07 AA+ Upgraded Stable 11/6/06 Taxable assessed valuation (TAV) grew 4.8% in both 2014 and 2015 and weathered the AA Affirmed Positive 5/15/06 housing market downturn well, up 21% since 2008. Approximately one-fifth of the city’s value is AA Revised Positive 10/28/05 AA Affirmed Stable 5/16/05 tax-exempt due to KSU’s notable presence in the city. While private developers have several AA Affirmed Stable 10/29/04 projects in progress, the recently tempered pace of development has resulted in a 55% decline AA Assigned Stable 5/14/04 in building permit revenues. State legislators recently approved a property tax lid, effective fiscal 2018, that will require municipalities to receive voter approval for increases in the property tax levy that exceed the rate of inflation. While property tax revenues represent a small 10% of general fund resources, Fitch will monitor the effect of the tax lid for potential restriction on revenue-raising flexibility. City income indicators are mixed, and the city’s poverty rate (24.2%) is high compared with 13.6% for the state and 15.5% for the national rates. The city’s large student population skews the city’s poverty rate and may not accurately reflect the students’ full economic impact, with Fitch recently published an exposure purchasing power garnered from external sources. This factor is an important contributor to the draft of state and local government tax- city’s sales tax-dependent financial profile. supported criteria (Exposure Draft: U.S. Tax-Supported Rating Criteria, dated Sept. 10, 2015). The draft includes a The city’s unemployment rate was very low at 3.3% in August 2015, down from August 2014 number of proposed revisions to existing (3.8%) and well under state (3.8%) and national (4.9%) rates. criteria. If applied in the proposed form, Fitch estimates the revised criteria would result in changes to fewer than 10% of existing tax-supported ratings. Fitch Sound Reserves Provide Important Flexibility expects that final criteria will be approved and published by Jan. 20, The city ended 2014 with a $2.6 million unrestricted fund balance, representing 10% of 2016. Once approved, the criteria will be applied immediately to any new issue spending. Fitch’s ‘AA+’ rating relies on the city’s additional financial flexibility outside of the and surveillance rating review. Fitch general fund in various discretionary accounts. Combined, available balances totaled a strong anticipates the criteria to be applied to all ratings that fall under the criteria within a 60% of general fund spending in 2014. 12-month period from the final approval date. The city beat its 2014 budget and reported results ahead of break-even projections. The 2014 audited results showed a $280,000 operating surplus after transfers, equal to 1.08% of spending and up from 2013’s deficit of $471,000. Management reports that the marginal increase in fund balance was the result of an increase in both sales tax revenues and in the property tax levy due to positive TAV trends. Management expects that sales tax (roughly 60% Related Criteria Tax-Supported Rating Criteria (August of general fund revenues) will continue to grow. 2012) U.S. State Government Tax-Supported The city’s 2015 budget represents a largely steady state budget, with an increase in spending Rating Criteria (August 2012) driven by a full year of operations at two new fire stations. As with prior years, the city budgeted Exposure Draft: U.S. Tax-Supported use of fund balance, as well as contingency operational and debt service support. Furthermore, Rating Criteria (September 2015) the city conservatively assumes a 3% increase in spending in 2015 from the 2014 budget. Manhattan, Kansas 2 November 17, 2015 Public Finance Performance year to date is positive, with expenditures coming in under budget and sales tax ahead of the prior-year’s flat performance. The city has additional budgetary flexibility from the county sales tax, renewed in late 2013, of which the city receives two-thirds. This additional revenue was not included in the county’s 2015 budget. The city has dedicated 30% of this source to the city’s bond and interest fund. The ‘AA+’ rating is based on Fitch’s expectation that the city will maintain a good financial cushion given the city’s regular and comprehensive interim reporting, coupled with strong cost controls, conservative budgeting and a comfortable expenditure reduction cushion. In 2016, the city will likely maintain these budgeting practices and continue reflecting a positive performance. General Fund Financial Summary ($000,
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