January 14, 2016 The Weakening of ISIS and Its Territorial Losses in and (2015)

"Victory picture" of the : an Iraqi flag hung on police headquarters in the city of in the Anbar Province (Al-Sumaria TV, December 28, 2015).

ISIS Loss of Territory in 2015 and the Causes

1. While 2014 was a year of conquest and expansion for ISIS, in 2015 it suffered a series of setbacks in Syria and Iraq, resulting in the loss of extensive areas under its control. Most important was the loss of Ramadi, the capital city of the Sunni Anbar Province, in Western Iraq. According to the spokesman of the Western anti-ISIS coalition, ISIS lost about 40% of the territory it had held in Iraq and 20% in Syria (Businessinsider.com). In addition, its oil production was hard hit, resulting in the loss of a substantial portion of its income from oil exports. ISIS also lost many fighters, including senior operatives, and its military infrastructures Iraq and Syria were damaged.

2. The following are the main areas previously under ISIS's control and lost primarily during the second half of 2015 (see the Appendices):

1) In Iraq the Iraqi army, with the support of Shi'ite and Sunni militias, retook a number of key cities and the regions around them: Ramadi (at the end of December), whose cleansing of ISIS operatives is not yet complete; Tikrit (April); Baiji (October). In addition, the Kurdish Peshmerga took the city of Sinjar and its surroundings 2

(November). , the jihadists' stronghold and symbol of power in Iraq, remains surrounded by the Iraqi army and isolated from ISIS backup and its main power base.

2) In Syria

A. The Kurdish forces, with aerial support from the and the coalition countries, took three important cities from ISIS: Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) (January), Tel Abiad (June) and Al-Hasakah (end of July). That made it possible for the Kurds to establish an autonomous region in the northeastern part of Syria and create a territorial continuum along most of Syria's border with Turkey. Kurdish forces recently took control of the Tishreen Dam (December), which lies south of Kobanî, and its nearby power plant, depriving ISIS of an important economic asset.

B. In Aleppo and the surrounding regions the Syrian army lifted ISIS's siege of the Kuweyres military airport (November) and established itself in the rural area to the south of the city. Southeast of Homs the Syrian army took the town of Mheen (January 2016) and threatens the city of Al-Qaryatayn (captured by ISIS at the beginning of August). In the region north of Aleppo ISIS was weakened but is still active.

C. ISIS was also weakened in the Yarmouk refugee camp and the Damascus neighborhood of Al-Hajar al-Aswad, in the southern part of the city. At the end of December ISIS reached an agreement for the evacuation of its operatives under UN aegis, but the agreement has not yet been implemented. In the Al- Qalamoun region northwest of Damascus rebel organizations were weakened, ISIS among them. The ISIS-affiliated "Al-Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade" in the southern Golan Heights was also weakened.

3. The main causes of ISIS's loss of power and territory were most likely the following:

1) The increasing international efforts against ISIS, especially after Russia joined the campaign (although a considerable number of Russia's aerial attacks have targeted the rebel organizations in general, not just ISIS). In addition, after the terrorist attack in Paris, and Britain began carrying out aerial attacks (November). Saudi Arabia, which formed and led a counter-terrorism coalition of 35 Arab-Muslim countries, will most likely also continue to increase pressure on ISIS. The intensive, ongoing aerial strikes have weakened ISIS's military capabilities (causing casualties and damaging its military infrastructure). 3

2) The military capabilities of the local forces in Iraq and Syria fighting ISIS have improved:

A) The Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq (YPG and Peshmerga) have shown they possess good military capabilities and their morale is high. However, the (strategic) controversy between them and Turkey, an ally of the United States and the West, hampers the use of the Kurdish forces' potential to promote the campaign against ISIS.

B) The military capabilities of the Iraqi army improved, especially of their counter-terrorism task force, and its aerial and ground collaboration with the United States strengthened. Politically, the success of the Iraqi regime in recruiting militias from among the Sunni tribes in Anbar Province to support the Iraqi army also contributed to the victory in Ramadi (previously, Iranian-supported Shi'ite militias played a key role in taking over Sunni regions, which led to sectarian frictions).

C) The Syrian army's offensive capabilities also improved to a certain extent, thanks to intensive Russian aerial support and the ground involvement of and Hezbollah: The most recent ground offensive was begun by the Syrian army three months ago (with the Iranians spearheading the attack and as a result suffering heavy losses). The result was a series of Syrian army successes to the south and east of Aleppo and south and east of Homs.

3) The blows to ISIS's income:

A) A strategic goal of Russia and the American-led coalition was to hit ISIS's sources of income. They attacked ISIS's oil production and marketing system, with intensive aerial strikes which increased in recent months. As a result, according to the American assessment, ISIS lost 40% of its oil revenues.

B) The United States is waging a multifaceted campaign against ISIS's financial system. It carried out targeted killings of senior figures in the organization's financial apparatus and attacked a building in the center of Mosul where ISIS stored large quantities of currency (used to pay its operatives and fund terrorist attacks). A senior official in the American Department of Defense said that millions of dollars in currency were destroyed (CNN, Agence France-Presse, January 11, 2016). 4

C) It is not yet clear to what extent the above-mentioned 40% drop in oil revenues has influenced ISIS's military and governmental capabilities, but most probably they will be influenced (such as ISIS's ability to recruit large numbers of new foreign fighters, replace its lost military infrastructure, and maintain the level of the services the Islamic State provides to the populations under its control).

Picture published by the Russian Ministry of Defense: the Russian air force strikes ISIS oil tanks in Syria (Tass, December 30, 2015).

4. Increased preventive measures taken by Turkey: In the past Turkey was a transit country for ISIS operatives on their way to Syria and a destination for the export of ISIS's petroleum products. After a long period during which Turkey turned a blind eye to ISIS's activities and did not take effective steps to prevent them, it began acting against ISIS (the result of both international pressure and ISIS terrorist attacks on Turkish soil). In recent months Turkey has increased the supervision of its border crossings and the routes leading to Syria, making it difficult for ISIS to exploit its logistic lifeline. However, the measures instituted so far have not been sufficiently effective and ISIS continues using Turkey as the main way station for its operatives and market for its petroleum exports (while carrying out terrorist attacks to deter Turkey from taking further action).

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What Next?

5. Despite the loss of territories and the defeats suffered in Syria and Iraq, ISIS still controls extensive swathes of land and a large population in western Iraq and eastern Syria. The core of ISIS's power is Mosul in Iraq and Al-Raqqah in Syria. Even after its financial capabilities were damaged, ISIS remained the richest terrorist organization in the world. Its ideological appeal throughout the Arab-Muslim world has not waned. On the other hand, the foreign powers involved in Syria are not enthusiastic about sending a significant ground force to conquer ISIS's power bases, and the local organizations fighting ISIS also fight among themselves. In addition, the internal chaos in Iraq and Syria which allowed for ISIS's growth is not expected to undergo a fundamental change in the foreseeable future, so the ground remains fertile for ISIS activity in both countries.

6. Therefore, the pressure exerted on ISIS can be expected to continue degrading the organization but will not be able to destroy it. ISIS will probably look for strategic responses in the following fields:

1) In the military field: ISIS will continue taking the necessary steps to reduce the effects of the pressures on it, for example by moving forces from isolated or besieged areas where it is weak to its core areas (for instance, the agreement reached for evacuating ISIS operatives from south of Damascus); improving its defensive capabilities in the areas surrounding Mosul and Al-Raqqah; intensifying its guerilla warfare and terrorist attacks against the Iraqi army, the Syrian army, the Kurds and rival rebel organizations (including the use of suicide bombers); using mobile forces to carry out surprise raids in isolated areas to attack army forces and the civilian infrastructure and create the image of new victories and achievement (and leveraging them further in the media). ISIS can also be expected to continue minimizing its visible presence in cities and open areas to make it difficult for the Western and Russian coalition to carry out aerial strikes.

2) Making an effort to gain footholds and establish itself in other Arab-Muslim countries: It is probable that as pressure on ISIS increases in Iraq and Syria the organization will increase its efforts to establish itself in other countries and construct alternative arenas for its activities. Its top priority is apparently , where during 2015 ISIS extended its territorial control of the region around . From its base in Sirte ISIS seeks to take control of regions to the east (the oil port of Sidr and the town of Ra's Lanuf, where Libya's oil industry is located), to the south (Libya's oilfields) and to the west (the capital city of and the cities near it). 6

Second on ISIS's list of priorities is probably the Sinai Peninsula, where its local branch is engaged in stubborn fighting with the Egyptian security forces (which have not succeeded in uprooting the ISIS operatives). ISIS will probably make an effort to extend its terrorist activities from the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt itself. Third on ISIS's list of priorities are probably countries and regions like Yemen, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan and Pakistan (Khorasan).

3) Increasing terrorism abroad: ISIS's weakening in Iraq and Syria was accompanied by an increase in terrorism abroad, including the attack in Paris, crashing the Russian plane and attacking Western tourists in hotels in Muslim countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia). It can be assumed that the more blows ISIS suffers in Iraq and Syria, the greater its motivation will be to carry out attacks abroad to deter its enemies and try to preserve its image as victorious and the leading jihadist organization.1 Countries likely to be in ISIS's crosshairs are the Western countries (especially in western Europe), Israel (recently the subject of an increasing number of ISIS threats), Russia and the Arab states participating in the campaign against ISIS (mainly Saudi Arabia). ISIS terrorist attacks abroad can be handled from Syria, Iraq and the Sinai Peninsula, or can be inspired by ISIS and carried out by its supporters in the Arab-Muslim world and in the Muslims communities in the West and other countries (including foreign fighters who returned to their countries of origin from Syria and Iraq).

7. Two appendices follow which summarize ISIS's loss of territory in Syria and Iraq in 2015.

1 That may create a kind of "competition" between ISIS and Al-Qaeda, which was involved in terrorist attacks on hotels in Bamako, the capital of Mali, and Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. 7

Appendix A ISIS's Loss of Territory in Syria Overview

1. ISIS's center of power in Syria is Al-Raqqah in the eastern part of the country. ISIS also controls extensive areas in Deir al-Zor and Al-Hasakah Provinces, and in the Tadmor (Palmyra) region. That gives ISIS control of two border crossings between Syria and Iraq (Al-Tanf and Abu Kamal), and one between Syria and Turkey (Jarabulus).

2. Pockets of the Syrian army and rebel organizations do, however, remain in the territory under ISIS control, but it can be said that ISIS is still the dominant force in eastern and northern Syria. In those regions, ISIS conducts campaigns against its many enemies on various fronts: the Kurds (the YPG), the Syrian army, the Al-Qaeda- affiliated Al-Nusra Front and rebel organizations with various ideologies and orientations (some of them supported by the United States and the West).

3. In 2015, primarily in the second half of the year, the military situation changed significantly, to the detriment of ISIS:

1) ISIS was forced to fight armies, organizations and militias whose combat capabilities had improved. It had to fight on many fronts simultaneously with a limited number of operatives, giving it numerical inferiority. On some fronts ISIS had to defend cities and wage static fighting in built-up areas, a type of combat it was unused to. It also had to deal with continuous aerial strikes carried out by the American-led coalition, and during the past months by the Russians as well (whose attacks were not limited to ISIS, although ISIS received considerable attention from the Russians). Therefore, in 2015 the strategic initiative passed to ISIS's enemies and forced the organization to fight according to new rules.

2) In the face of so many obstacles and threats ISIS found it difficult to employ its usual combat tactics, which it had used to win impressive territorial gains in 2014. Those tactics included concentrating on swift conquest (of cities, economic facilities, military units), using mobility for surprise attacks and leveraging the low morale of its enemies. ISIS also waged guerilla warfare using suicide bombing attacks and car bombs to intimidate its enemies and inflict losses and damage. However, such tactics could not essentially change the weakening of the organization and its territorial losses, and thus in 2015 ISIS found itself having to employ defensive strategies in Iraq and Syria. 8

4. The Americans estimated that during the fighting in Syria in the last months of 2015 ISIS lost about 20% of the territory under its control,2 a reasonable estimate. It lost most of its territory at the hands of the Kurdish forces along the Syria-Turkey border (Kobanî, Tel Abiad, Al-Hasakah). The Syrian army with Russian air support liberated important areas east of Aleppo and southeast of Homs. ISIS was weakened in the regions around Damascus and southern Syria, and is no longer a direct threat to the heart of the regime in Damascus. On the other hand, in May 2015 ISIS conquered the cities of Tadmor (Palmyra) and Sukhnah in the Syrian desert, the only two cities it took control of in 2015.

5. Information follows about the most important regions ISIS lost in 2015 and those where it still has a presence but is weakened.

Aleppo Region

6. On October 7, 2015, the Syrian army, with Russian aerial support and ground support from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Shi'ite militias, began a ground offensive. It was directed against ISIS, the Al-Nusra Front and the other rebel organizations in northern Syria. The objective was to retake the regions of Idlib and Aleppo under the control of the various organizations, to ease the strategic pressure on the coastal city of Latakia, and to create a military threat against the areas under rebel control to the north of Aleppo (the region near the Turkish border). It gained a foothold on the ground in the rural area south of Aleppo controlled by the rebel organizations and attacked ISIS's strongholds east of Aleppo and southeast of Homs (see below). The Syrian army ground offensive continues.

7. The ground offensive pushed ISIS out of regions it had occupied east of Aleppo. On November 10, 2015, the Syrian army reached the military airbase at Kuweyres and relieved the long-term siege ISIS had imposed on it. With Russian air support and the aid of Hezbollah forces, ISIS operatives were expelled from the region a year after they had surrounded the airport. The Syrian air force rushed to occupy the base and the Syrian regime announced it had become the exit point for forces whose task was "to destroy the terrorist nests in the eastern part of the city."

2 According to The Atlantic, based in Washington, DC, the Syrian army liberated 80 cities, towns and villages in Syria in an area of more than 500 square kilometers (almost 195 square miles). 9

Kuweires Military Airbase

The military airbase at Kuweyres, east of Aleppo (Google Maps)

8. In the three weeks following the takeover of the airbase at Kuweyres the Syrian army established itself in the region, repelled ISIS's guerilla attacks (including suicide bombing attacks), and began advancing towards the important city of Al-Bab, which was under ISIS's control (north of the airbase and northeast of Aleppo). At the beginning of January 2016 the Syrian army was reportedly situated about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the town of Tadif, south of Al-Bab. If Al-Bab is conquered, the Syrian army threat on the ISIS strongholds east and north of Aleppo will increase.

Kuweires Military

Tadif and Al-Bab, approached by the Syrian army at the beginning of 2016. ISIS is still in control of Al-Bab (Google Maps)

9. The region north of Aleppo is important for ISIS because logistic routes between Syria and Turkey pass through it. In the second half of 2015 there was fighting throughout the region between ISIS and the rebel organizations seeking to expel it. ISIS still has a 10 presence north of Aleppo, where it controls Jarabulus, Al-Bab, Manbij and Marea. However, its strongholds are threatened by other terrorist organizations (operating in the region), by the Syrian army (from the south) and by Kurdish forces (from the east).

הכוחות Jarabulu הכורדים

צבא סוריה

ISIS's main strongholds north of Aleppo. They are threatened by Kurdish forces (from the east), the Syrian army (from the south) and other terrorist organizations (operating in the region) (Google Maps)

ISIS Is Pushed Out from the Area Southeast of Homs

10. At the end of 2015 ISIS's forces southeast of Homs were under pressure from the Syrian army. After battles lasting several weeks, the Syrian army, with Russian aerial support, took control of the town of Mheen, located about 60 kilometers (37 miles) southeast of Aleppo (conquered by ISIS on October 31, 2015, by an ISIS force sent from the city of Al-Qaryatayn).

11. The loss of Mheen (December 29, 2015) was another failed effort by ISIS to advance westward and threaten the main road leading to Damascus (Aleppo–Homs–Hama). It now appears that the Syrian army's next objective will be the city of Al-Qaryatayn, an important center in the agricultural region southeast of Homs, conquered by ISIS at the beginning of August 2015.

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Left: The damage done to the town of Mheen, seen after it was liberated (@KhaledgAlkhteb, December 30, 2015). Right: Al-Qaryatayn, under ISIS control, threatened by the Syrian army after it conquered Mheen (Google Maps).

Map of the region around Al-Qaryatayn, from a Twitter account supporting the Bashar Assad regime. The arrows indicate the progress of the Syrian army towards Al-Qaryatayn (@Syria_Protector, December 29, 2015).

ISIS Is Pushed Out of Areas around Damascus

12. During the first half of 2015 ISIS tried to establish itself in the town of Al-Hajar al- Aswad and in the Yarmouk refugee camp south of Damascus. In April 2015 ISIS operatives reportedly took control of a substantial portion of the refugee camp. They also tried to take control of the Al-Qaboun, Barzeh and Tishreen neighborhoods in the northern part of Damascus. Their objective was to threaten, along with the other rebel organizations, the power center of the Syrian regime. However, because they were weak and isolated in other sectors, they could not establish themselves in the region around 12

Damascus or deal with the many pressures exerted by the Syrian army, the other rebel organizations (primarily the Al-Nusra Front) and the local Palestinian forces.

Areas of ISIS presence and activity around Damascus during the first half of 2015: the neighborhoods of Al-Qaboun, Barzeh and Tishreen north of Damascus; the Yarmouk refugee camp and the town of Al-Hajar al-Aswad south of Damascus (Google Maps).

13. ISIS's weakness in the rural areas south of Damascus forced it, at the end of December 2015, to reach an arrangement for evacuating about 2,000 of operatives and their families from the Yarmouk refugee camp and Al-Hajar al-Aswad, under UN supervision. According to the arrangement, the ISIS operatives and their families would be allowed to go to Al-Raqqah and other areas under their control. It was also arranged that the Syrian army would take the arms left by ISIS (Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, December 25, 2015). It was agreed that Al-Nusra Front operatives would also be evacuated from the region.

14. On December 25, 2015, buses came to the Yarmouk refugee camp to transport the ISIS operatives. However, so far the arrangement has not been implemented, apparently because of the tension following the killing of Zahran Alloush, commander of the Islamist Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam). However, the fact that ISIS agreed to such an arrangement seems to indicate it is weak in the region around Damascus and would rather relocate to its "capital" of Al-Raqqah. ISIS Pushed Away from the Turkish Border by Kurdish Forces

15. During 2015 the Kurdish forces had a series of victories, expelled ISIS from large areas near the Turkish border, and established the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northeastern Syria. ISIS suffered three conspicuous defeats in Syria at the hands of the 13

Kurdish forces (YPG) at the beginning of 2015, the fall of the cities of Kobanî (Ayn al- Arab), Tel Abiad and Al-Hasakah. The Kurdish forces had aerial support from the United States and the coalition countries, but that support was apparently secondary and not the main cause behind its achievements. The Kurdish forces proved their good military capabilities and strong motivation in the fighting against ISIS, and showed themselves as an effect force that the West could rely on.

16. The (Kurdish) Kobanî or (Arab) Ayn al-Arab is a Kurdish city east of Jarabulus, near the Syria-Turkey border. Before the fighting began about 200,000 people lived in the city and its surrounding areas, although almost all of them have fled, most of them to Turkey. Since the summer of 2014, when ISIS took over Kobanî and its surroundings, the city has become a symbol of the struggle of the Kurds against ISIS.

17. At the end of January 2015 the Kurdish forces expelled ISIS from Kobanî, liberated the city and returned the inhabitants who had fled. After the loss of Kobanî ISIS withdrew from dozens of villages in the surrounding rural areas. Since then the Kurdish forces have strengthened their control along the border and in June 2015 they restored their control over Tel Abiad, threatening Jarabulus and ISIS strongholds in the region north of Aleppo.

The destruction wreaked on Kobanî by four months of fighting (Twitter account of Ayn al-Arab, February 2, 2014). Ayn al-Arab)

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Kurdish fighters on the outskirts of Kobanî (Syriansnews.com).

18. At the beginning of August 2015 Kurdish forces liberated the city of Al-Hasakah, which had been occupied by ISIS. The Kurds had aerial support from the United States and the coalition countries. The Kurdish forces later established their control over the rural areas surrounding the city, gained control of the road leading from Kobanî to Al-Hasakah, and established a territorial continuum. Expelling ISIS from Al-Hasakah and its surroundings established the Kurdish Autonomous Region in northeastern Syria, raising concerns in Turkey.

Jarabul

Tell منبج Manbij

Tishri n Dam

The sites liberated by the Kurdish forces: Al-Hasakah, Tel Abiad, Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) and the Tishreen Dam (Google Maps).

19. On December 26, 2015, Kurdish forces, with support from local Arab forces (the "," SDF) took control of the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates, accomplished with aerial support from the United States and the coalition. The dam is an 15 important facility and is close to one of the most important power stations in northern Syria (providing about 40% of Syria's electricity).

20. The conquest of the area around the dam signaled the expansion of the Kurdish forces and threatened ISIS's supply lines from Al-Raqqah to Aleppo. It was also a financial blow to ISIS, preventing it from controlling the supply of electricity to large parts of Syria (especially Aleppo and its surroundings). The dam also serves as an important bridge over the Euphrates, by which it is possible to reach ISIS's strongholds north of Aleppo from the east.

Jarabulu

Tishrin Dam

The Tishreen Dam, south of Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab), captured by the Kurds (Google Maps).

ISIS's Only Conquests in 2015: Tadmor (Palmyra) and Sukhnah in the Syrian Desert

21. The conquest of the cities of Tadmor (Palmyra) and Sukhnah, in the heart of the Syrian desert east of Homs, was ISIS's only significant territorial achievement in 2015. On May 13, 2015, ISIS operatives took control of Sukhnah, the second largest city in the Syrian desert (Tadmor is the largest). It is located on the road between Tadmor and Deir al-Zor. On May 21, 2015, ISIS conquered Tadmor and its surrounding areas by means of special forces brought in from ISIS-controlled areas in Syria and Iraq. The Syrian army withdrew from the city without really fighting. ISIS also took over the city's economic facilities, including its T-3 pumping station, situated about 44 kilometers (27 miles) east of Tadmor, two phosphate deposits south of Tadmor and the Al-Hul and Arak gas fields northeast of Tadmor.

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ISIS's only territorial achievements in 2014: the conquest of Tadmor and Sukhnah (Google Maps)

22. After its success in Tadmor and Sukhnah, on May 22, 2015, ISIS took control of the Al-Tanf border crossing between Syria and Iraq. It was the last border crossing between Syria and Iraq still under Syrian army control. On May 24, 2015, ISIS operatives took control of the Iraqi side of the border (the Al-Walid crossing), facilitating the movement of its forces between eastern Syria and western Iraq.

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Appendix B ISIS's Loss of Territory in Iraq

Sinjar

Cities in Iraq captured by ISIS in 2015 (Google Maps)

Overview

1. ISIS had its greatest achievement in Iraq in June 2014, when it conquered Mosul. It still controls extensive areas in western and northern Iraq, including Mosul, which is the country's second largest city. The aerial attacks of the coalition countries helped contain ISIS in Iraq, but until recently they could not fundamentally change the situation on the ground created in the summer of 2014. That is because of the military and political weakness of the Iraqi army, and the low morale of its soldiers, supported by the Shi'ite militias (the so-called "popular enlistment"), handled by Iran.

2. During 2015 the Iraqi army, with support from Shi'ite and Sunni militias, liberated two key Sunni cities, Tikrit and Baiji, from ISIS, and in the northwest the city of Sinjar and its surroundings fell to the Kurdish forces (mainly the Peshmerga). Ramadi in Anbar Province was also taken (although its cleansing of ISIS operatives has not yet been completed). Fallujah, the stronghold of the jihadists in Iraq, is currently surrounded by the Iraqi army and isolated from ISIS's power bases in Iraq and Syria. In Mosul, ISIS's main stronghold in Iraq, ISIS's control has not been affected, but the defeats it has sustained elsewhere are liable to erode its position. The City of Tikrit

3. One of ISIS's most conspicuous failures in 2015 was the fall of Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein. ISIS held Tikrit for eight months before the Iraqi army, with support from 18

Shi'ite militias, managed to restore its control in April 2015, after a month of fighting. The fall of Tikrit was ISIS's worst defeat in Iraq since its victories of June 2014. However, the Iraqi army's victory was marred by reports of Shi'ite militia harassment of local Sunni residents. The City of Baiji

4. On October 24, 2015, Iraqi President Haydar Abadi and the Iraqi army announced the liberation of the oil city of Baiji from ISIS after seven months of fighting. The restoration of Baiji, its oil refineries and surroundings, to the control of the Iraqi army was an important achievement, also carried out with the support of pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias. However, the entire area has still not been rid of ISIS operatives, and Iraqi army forces have been stationed in the city of Samara, south of Baiji, to deal with ISIS's continuing guerilla attacks. The City of Sinjar

5. Sinjar is a city in Nineveh Province in northwester Iraq, near the Syrian border. Most of its inhabitants are Yazidis who collaborate with the Kurdish forces. In November 2015, a year after the city fell to ISIS, the Kurdish forces, with aerial support from the international coalition, gained control of the city and surrounding areas (about 150 square kilometers, or 60 square miles). The liberation of Sinjar was carried out mainly by Kurdish forces (the Peshmerga with the support of the PKK and YPG). The Kurdish forces were also supported by the Yazidis and had aerial support from the American-led coalition countries.

6. The conquest of Sinjar led to cutting off the main road, Route 47, which leads from Mosul to Syria. That made it difficult for ISIS to transfer supplies and operatives between Syria and Iraq, although there were alternative routes it could use. The conquest of Sinjar again demonstrated the strong military capabilities of the Kurdish forces in the campaign against ISIS.

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SYRIA

Route 47 from Mosul to Sinjar, and from there to Syria (Google Maps)

Ramadi

7. Ramadi, about 100 kilometers from , is the capital of the Sunni Anbar Province. It lies on the banks of the Euphrates at a crossroads leading to Syria and Jordan, and is an important commercial center. When the American army was in Iraq Ramadi was the capital of the Sunni tribes who fought against Al-Qaeda, and it later turned into a jihadist stronghold. In 2004 about half a million Iraqis lived in Ramadi, but most of them fled the fighting, some to suburbs of Baghdad. Apparently during the conquest by the Iraqi army not many inhabitants remained in the city. Ramadi was taken from the Iraqi army by ISIS on May 15, 2015, in what in retrospect was its greatest territorial acquisition in Iraq since the conquest of Mosul in June 2014.

8. On December 28, 2015, the Iraqi army, with aerial support from the United States and coalition countries, took control of the center of the city, where the government buildings are located. Apparently the Iraqi army has taken over most of the city, fighting against several hundred ISIS operatives. However there are still pockets of resistance inside the city and in the surrounding areas, and the Iraqi army is trying to rout them. It is too early to estimate how long it will take to fully rid the city and surrounding areas of ISIS operatives, but apparently the Iraqi army and the Sunni militias supporting it have a long road ahead of them.3

9. The liberation of Ramadi was a defeat for ISIS and an important media and military success for the Iraqi army and the American-led coalition. It was the first time since the collapse of Mosul that the Iraqi army restored its control over a city with strategic

3 For further information about the conquest or Ramadi, see the January 4, 2016 bulletin, " The Liberation of Ramadi – The situation on the ground and significance."

20 importance from which its soldiers had fled seven and a half months previously. In fighting inside the city the Iraqi army's counter-terrorism task force used tactics taught by the United States, and was aided by close aerial support from the United States and the coalition countries.

Left: The Iraqi army counter-terrorism task force in one of the neighborhoods in Ramadi. Right: Iraqi forces during the siege of Ramadi (Twitter account affiliated with the Shi'ite militias supporting the Iraqi regime, December 23, 2015).

Left: The Iraq counter-terrorism task force enters the center of Ramadi (Twitter account affiliated with the Shi'ite militias supporting the Iraqi regime, December 22, 2015). Right: Forces land in the Al-Jumaiya neighborhood in the northern part of Ramadi (Twitter account affiliated with the Shi'ite militias supporting the Iraqi regime, December 23, 2015).