CONSENSUS FORECAST Kazakhstan • July 2015

KAZAKHSTAN 2 CALENDAR 16 NOTES 18

PUBLICATION DATE 7 July 2015 FORECASTS COLLECTED 30 June - 6 July 2015 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 6 July 2015 NEXT EDITION 4 August 2015

Contributors ARNE POHLMAN OLGA COSCODAN ANGELA BOUZANIS Chief Economist Economist Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI CARL KELLY ROBERT HILL Head of Research Economist Economist RICARDO ACEVES TERESA KERSTING ERIC DENIS Senior Economist Economist Economist RICARD TORNÉ DIRINA MANÇELLARI MIRIAM DOWD Senior Economist Economist Editor FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Outlook deteriorates  Lackluster GDP growth in Q1 resulted from a slowdown in the agricultural and services sectors. Conversely, the industrial sector, buttressed by an increase in both the manufacturing and construction sectors, showed a notable improvement in Q1. Although the recession in Russia deepened in Q2, more recent data suggest that the Kazakh economy was more resilient at the outset of Q2. The short-term economic outlook, however, remains weak. The worsening of the crisis in Russia, together with LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages elevated perception of political risk and uncertainty over monetary and exchange rate policies, are likely to dampen bank lending and investment 2011-13 2014-16 2017-19 Population (million): 16.9 17.7 18.5 in the second half of the year. GDP (USD bn): 205 210 246 GDP per capita (USD): 12,126 11,858 13,267 GDP growth (%): 6.2 2.9 4.5  The government’s plan aimed at improving the country’s business and Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.3 -2.7 -1.8 investment climate is expected to ramp up economic growth in the long Public Debt (% of GDP) 12.3 16.2 21.3 Inflation (%): 6.0 6.5 5.9 run. However, the current recession in Russia and oil prices that are lower Current Account (% of GDP): 2.1 -0.7 0.1 than a year ago will weigh on the country’s investment and export revenues External Debt (% of GDP): 67.0 76.8 78.9 this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 1.4% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, our panel of experts sees economic growth picking up to 2.9%.

 Inflationary pressures are fading. Inflation fell from 4.3% in Mayto 3.9% in June, which marked the lowest level in over a decade. The FocusEconomics panel expects inflation to end 2015 at 5.9%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecasts. For 2016, the panel expects inflation of 6.3%.

REAL SECTOR | Economic growth slows down in Q1 Ricardo Aceves Senior Economist Kazakhstan’s economy weakened at the beginning of the year. GDP expanded 2.3% annually in the first quarter of 2015, which marked a slowdown over the 3.8% increase registered in the same quarter last year. Kazakhstan reports growth at an accumulated basis and in the full year 2014 overall economic

GDP | variation in % growth was 4.3% (2013: +6.0 year-on-year).

9.0 The print reflected that the agricultural sector grew 2.9% annually inQ1 2015, which was below the 3.5% increase observed in Q1 2014. In addition, 6.0 services lost strength and expanded 3.7% year-on-year in Q1 2015 (Q1 2014: +5.4% yoy). Conversely, the industrial sector improved and increased 1.1% % in Q1 2015, which contrasted the 1.1% contraction registered in the same 3.0 quarter last year. Growth in the industrial sector bounced back in the first three months of this year, stemming from a notable increase in the manufacturing sector and growth in construction. 0.0 Q2 11 Q2 12 Q2 13 Q2 14 Q2 15 President Nursultan Nazarbayev was inaugurated for another new five-year Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK) and term on 30 April, following his landslide victory in the 26 April presidential FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. elections. President Nazarbayev pledged to use this new term to carry out economic reforms in order to modernize the economy, propel economic growth and improve transparency and accountability in the public sector.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 2 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

On 6 May, Nazarbayev presented a 100-step program in which he outlines the reforms that he wants to implement in order to deliver the five-pillared manifesto promises he pledged during his campaign.

The Ministry of National Economy foresees economic growth of 1.5% in 2015, under a baseline scenario in which the Ministry projects the price-per- barrel of oil to average USD 50. Under a more optimistic scenario, in which the Ministry projects oil prices to average USD 60 per barrel, government authorities expect the economy to increase 2.0%. Analysts see Kazakhstan’s economy rising 1.4% in 2015. This month’s projection is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2016, the panel of analysts expect the economy to pick up pace and expand 2.9%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rebounds in May Industrial Production | annual variation in %

4.0 Kazakhstan’s industrial output rebounded in May and increased 1.1% over the same month last year. The reading bounced back from the 0.4% contraction registered in April and marked the fastest pace of expansion in the last three 2.0 months. %

0.0 The monthly expansion stemmed from a notable increase in mining and quarrying. Conversely, manufacturing output contracted over the previous -2.0 month, as well as electricity generation and water supply.

Year-on-year Annual average -4.0 The overall trend remained stable in May. The annual average growth in May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 industrial production remained unchanged at April’s 0.3% in May. Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %. Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK) and A group of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect that industrial FocusEconomics calculations. production will contract 0.3% in 2015, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s survey. For 2016, the panel sees that industrial production will rebound and expand 1.7%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls to lowest level in over a decade In June, consumer prices fell 0.1% over the previous month, which contrasted Inflation | Consumer Price Index the 0.3% increase observed in May. June’s drop, which was the first one since August 2002, reflected lower prices for food, housing, energy and education. 2.0 8.0

1.5 7.0 Inflation fell from 4.3% in May to 3.9% in June, which marked the lowest level in 16 years.

1.0 6.0

% % As inflationary pressures are fading, the inflation trend continues the downward 0.5 5.0 trajectory in place since December 2014. Annual average inflation fell from 6.5% in May to 6.3% in June. 0.0 4.0 Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale) -0.5 3.0 The National Bank of Kazakhstan expects that, notwithstanding the two Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 scenarios projected by the Ministry of National Economy, inflation will remain

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation in consumer price index in %. within its target range of between 6.0% and 8.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). panelists expect inflation to end 2015 at 5.9%, which is down 0.6 percentage points over the previous month’s forecast. At the end of 2016, the Central Banks expects inflation to rise to 6.3%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 3 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Economic Indicators | 2010 - 2019

Annual Data 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Real Sector Population (million) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 GDP per capita (USD) 9,008 11,136 11,928 13,314 12,175 12,003 11,396 12,137 13,222 14,442 GDP (USD bn) 148 186 202 229 212 212 205 221 244 271 GDP per capita (EUR) 6,715 8,579 9,047 9,662 10,062 10,964 10,726 11,129 11,742 12,379 GDP (EUR bn) 110 143 153 166 175 194 193 203 217 232 GDP (KZT bn) 21,816 27,572 30,347 35,275 38,712 41,463 45,021 49,517 54,691 60,668 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) 28.3 26.4 10.1 16.2 9.7 7.1 8.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 7.3 7.5 5.0 6.0 4.3 1.4 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.1 Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 11.8 10.9 11.0 12.6 -2.3 1.0 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.4 Government Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.7 11.3 13.2 1.7 10.3 - - - - - Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 3.8 3.9 9.1 4.9 0.2 2.3 3.2 4.3 4.8 5.4 Industrial Production (annual var. in %) 9.7 3.6 0.6 2.3 0.2 -0.3 1.7 2.6 3.2 3.7 Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.4 -2.1 -2.9 -2.0 -2.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 Public Debt (% of GDP) 14.4 11.9 12.6 12.6 14.6 16.5 17.5 19.5 21.3 23.1 Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann. var. of M2 in %) 23.1 21.3 7.3 1.5 -8.2 - - - - - Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.8 7.4 6.0 4.8 7.4 5.9 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 7.1 8.3 5.1 5.8 6.7 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.0 5.8 Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 7.00 7.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.97 5.94 5.84 5.71 5.58 Stock Market (BET variation in %) -2.8 -35.7 -12.9 -4.7 2.6 - - - - - Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 147 148 150 154 183 215 224 224 224 224 Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, aop) 147 147 149 152 179 195 220 224 224 224 Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 197 192 199 212 221 225 241 247 257 266 Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, aop) 196 204 192 202 238 214 234 244 252 261 External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.9 5.5 0.5 0.4 2.2 -3.1 -1.1 -0.4 0.1 0.6 Current Account (USD bn) 1.4 10.2 1.1 0.9 4.6 -6.5 -2.3 -1.0 0.2 1.6 Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 28.9 47.4 40.1 35.9 37.0 17.6 24.1 28.5 30.3 28.9 Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 60.0 84.3 86.4 84.7 78.2 57.0 65.5 72.3 76.3 76.7 Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 31.1 36.9 46.4 48.8 41.2 39.4 41.4 43.9 46.0 47.8 Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) 38.8 40.6 2.5 -2.0 -7.6 -27.1 14.9 10.4 5.5 0.6 Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) 9.5 18.6 25.6 5.3 -15.6 -4.4 5.2 5.8 4.8 3.9 International Reserves (USD bn) 28.3 29.3 28.3 24.7 28.9 24.1 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.2 International Reserves (months of imports) 10.9 9.5 7.3 6.1 8.4 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 External Debt (USD bn) 118 125 137 150 157 160 166 176 193 211 External Debt (% of GDP) 79.9 67.5 67.9 65.6 74.0 75.4 81.1 79.7 79.1 77.7

Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 4.1 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.7 Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 7.4 7.4 5.2 3.9 6.1 5.9 6.3 5.0 5.3 6.3 Refinancing Rate (%, eop) 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 6.04 5.97 6.12 6.04 6.00 5.94 Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 182 183 186 186 210 215 220 219 222 224 Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 230 221 199 207 225 225 232 232 239 241

Monthly Data Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -0.7 -1.6 3.6 1.9 -0.8 1.6 0.9 -0.4 1.1 - Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 11.6 12.1 12.0 10.9 4.7 3.1 3.1 1.7 2.4 - Unemployment (% of active population) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 - Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 6.1 5.2 4.6 4.3 3.9 Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) 182 181 182 183 184 185 186 186 186 186 Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) 230 227 226 221 208 207 199 209 204 207

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 4 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2019 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 12-Q4 16 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

15 6 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 BMI Research 2.5 3.3 Citigroup Global Mkts 1.5 2.5 10 4 Credit Suisse 2.3 4.0 Danske Bank 1.2 - 5 Deutsche Bank 2.1 2.6 2 Economic Research Institute 1.9 3.3 0 EIU 0.8 1.7 Frontier Strategy Group 0.8 1.2 0 Halyk Finance 0.0 2.6 -5 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan HSBC 2.0 3.3 Eastern Europe Eastern Europe ING 0.0 4.3 World World -10 -2 JPMorgan 1.5 2.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Oxford Economics 1.8 3.5 Raiffeisen Research - - Renaissance Capital 0.7 3.5 3 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2016 | evolution of forecasts Sberbank 1.8 2.4 8 8 UBS 1.5 2.9 Visor Capital 1.2 - VTB Capital 1.5 - 6 6 WIIW 2.0 3.5 Summary 4 Minimum 0.0 1.2 4 Maximum 2.5 4.3 2 Median 1.5 3.1 Consensus 1.4 2.9 2 History 0 Maximum Maximum Consensus Consensus 30 days ago 1.8 3.2 Minimum Minimum 60 days ago 1.6 2.6 -2 0 90 days ago 2.5 3.2 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Additional Forecasts Government (June 2015) 1.5 - 5 | GDP 2015 | Panelist Distribution IMF (Apr. 2015) 2.0 3.2 ADB (Mar. 2015) 1.9 3.8 60%

40%

20%

0% < -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 > 5.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 GDP, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 5 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in % Consumption Investment 20 variation in % variation in % Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 BMI Research 1.5 3.0 3.0 4.0 Citigroup Global Mkts 1.6 2.5 1.1 2.0 10 Credit Suisse - - - - Danske Bank - - - - Deutsche Bank - - - - Economic Research Institute 0.9 9.0 4.1 3.5 0 EIU 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Frontier Strategy Group 1.0 1.0 - - Halyk Finance - - - - Kazakhstan Eastern Europe HSBC 1.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 -10 ING 1.8 6.9 2.4 4.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan - - - - Oxford Economics - - - - Raiffeisen Research - - - - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst Renaissance Capital - - - - Sberbank - - - - 10 UBS -1.2 6.0 1.5 1.5

Visor Capital - - - - 8 VTB Capital - - - - WIIW 1.5 3.0 3.0 5.0 Summary 6 Minimum -1.2 1.0 1.1 1.5 Maximum 1.8 9.0 4.1 5.0 4 Median 1.0 3.0 2.2 3.3

Consensus 1.0 4.0 2.3 3.2 2 History 30 days ago 0.8 4.2 2.1 2.6 2015 2016 60 days ago 1.4 2.3 1.6 2.2 0 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 0.3 2.1 3.1 3.8

8 | Investment | variation in %

30 Kazakhstan Eastern Europe 20

-10

-20 2000 2005 2010 2015

9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts

4 Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency 2 of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2015 2016 7 Private consumption, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0 8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 6 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Industry and Unemployment 10 | Industry | variation in % Industry Unemployment 20 variation in % % of active pop. Kazakhstan Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 Eastern Europe BMI Research - - - - Citigroup Global Mkts - - 5.0 5.0 10 Credit Suisse - - - - Danske Bank - - - - Deutsche Bank - - - - Economic Research Institute -0.5 1.1 5.2 5.0 0 EIU -1.0 -0.1 6.0 6.2 Frontier Strategy Group -2.0 1.0 6.0 5.8 Halyk Finance - - 5.2 5.1 HSBC 0.8 2.0 5.1 5.1 -10 ING 0.0 3.7 5.2 5.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan - - - - Oxford Economics - - - - Raiffeisen Research - - - - 11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Renaissance Capital 0.0 2.1 5.5 5.3 Sberbank - - 5.2 5.2 4 UBS -1.0 1.0 - - Visor Capital - - - - 2 VTB Capital - - - - WIIW 1.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 Summary 0 Minimum -2.0 -0.1 5.0 5.0 Maximum 1.0 3.7 6.0 6.2 Median -0.3 1.6 5.2 5.1 -2 Consensus -0.3 1.7 5.3 5.3 History 2015 2016 30 days ago -0.8 1.2 5.3 5.3 -4 60 days ago -1.7 0.9 5.5 5.6 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago -1.2 1.4 5.3 5.4

12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.

14 Kazakhstan Eastern Europe 12

4 2000 2005 2010 2015

13 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts

6.0

2015 2016 5.8

5.6

5.4 Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency 5.2 of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5.0 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 7 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Fiscal Balance and Public Debt 14 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

Fiscal Balance Public Debt 2 % of GDP % of GDP Kazakhstan Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 Eastern Europe BMI Research -2.0 -1.9 - - 0 Citigroup Global Mkts -2.2 -1.9 - - Credit Suisse -3.6 -3.0 16.4 16.6 Danske Bank - - - - -2 Deutsche Bank -2.5 -1.3 - - Economic Research Institute -3.0 -2.1 17.2 19.1 EIU -2.6 -2.2 16.6 15.8 -4 Frontier Strategy Group - - - - Halyk Finance -4.5 -4.4 19.2 22.0 HSBC -1.8 -1.3 15.9 18.3 -6 ING -4.0 -3.0 17.5 19.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan -3.0 -2.8 15.5 16.6 Oxford Economics -3.3 -3.3 - - Raiffeisen Research - - - - 15 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts Renaissance Capital -2.5 -2.2 14.7 14.8 Sberbank - - - - 2 UBS -2.2 -1.5 16.2 16.0 Visor Capital - - - - VTB Capital -1.8 - - - WIIW -2.5 -2.5 16.0 17.0 0 Summary Minimum -4.5 -4.4 14.7 14.8 Maximum -1.8 -1.3 19.2 22.0 Median -2.5 -2.2 16.3 16.8 -2 Consensus -2.8 -2.4 16.5 17.5

History 2015 2016 30 days ago -1.9 -1.4 15.5 16.3 60 days ago -1.4 -1.4 15.1 15.4 -4 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago -0.1 0.4 15.1 15.1

16 | Public Debt | % of GDP

60 Kazakhstan Eastern Europe

0 2000 2005 2010 2015

17 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts

2015 2016

Notes and sources 14 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MFRK) and the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 14 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: MFRK. 15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 12 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 16 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: SARK. 17 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 8 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Monetary Sector | Inflation

18 | Inflation | 2000 - 2019 | in % 19 | Inflation | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in %

30 10 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 Kazakhstan BMI Research - - Eastern Europe Citigroup Global Mkts 3.9 5.1 8 Credit Suisse 4.5 5.0 20 Danske Bank - - Deutsche Bank 8.4 7.6 6 Economic Research Institute 6.4 7.0 EIU 6.7 5.6 10 Frontier Strategy Group 8.5 7.5 4 Halyk Finance 3.0 3.9

Kazakhstan HSBC - - Eastern Europe ING 3.5 4.9 0 2 JPMorgan 6.0 7.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Oxford Economics 5.8 6.4 Raiffeisen Research - - Renaissance Capital 8.6 7.5 20 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst 21 | Inflation 2016 | evolution of fcst Sberbank 5.8 5.4 12 10 Maximum UBS 7.0 7.9 Consensus Visor Capital 5.0 - 10 Minimum VTB Capital 5.9 - 8 WIIW 5.0 6.0 Summary 8 Minimum 3.0 3.9 6 Maximum 8.6 7.9 6 Median 5.9 6.2 Consensus 5.9 6.3 4 4 Maximum History Consensus 30 days ago 6.5 6.6 Minimum 60 days ago 6.8 6.5 2 2 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 6.5 6.9 Additional Forecasts Central Bank (June 2015) 6.0 - 8.0 - 22 | Inflation 2015 | Panelist Distribution IMF (Apr. 2015) 4.9 5.5 ADB (Mar. 2015) 6.0 6.2 50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% < 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 > 14.0

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 18 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 20 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months. 21 Inflation, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 22 Inflation, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 9 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate

23 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2019 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 12-Q4 16 | in % Interest Rate | Refinancing Rate

40 12 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan BMI Research 5.75 6.00 Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Citigroup Global Mkts 5.50 5.50 30 10 Credit Suisse 5.50 5.50 Danske Bank - - Deutsche Bank 5.50 5.50 20 8 Economic Research Institute - - EIU - - Frontier Strategy Group - - 6 10 Halyk Finance - - HSBC 7.00 7.00 ING 5.50 5.50 0 4 2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 JPMorgan - - Oxford Economics - - Raiffeisen Research - - 25 | Int. Rate 2015 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2016 | evolution of fcst Renaissance Capital 5.50 6.00 Sberbank - - 8 10 Maximum UBS 7.50 6.50 Consensus Visor Capital - - Minimum VTB Capital - - WIIW - - 6 8 Summary Minimum 5.50 5.50 Maximum 7.50 7.00

4 6 Median 5.50 5.75 Consensus 5.97 5.94 Maximum History Consensus Minimum 30 days ago 6.25 6.08 2 4 60 days ago 6.50 6.25 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 5.90 6.50

27 | Interest Rate 2015 | Panelist Distribution

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% < 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 > 11.00

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 23 Interest rate, Refinancing Rate in % (eop). 24 Quarterly interest rate, Refinancing Rate in % (eop). 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months. 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 27 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 10 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate

250 250 Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 BMI Research 205 215 Citigroup Global Mkts 200 223 Credit Suisse 205 224 200 200 Danske Bank 240 260 Deutsche Bank - - Economic Research Institute 187 188 EIU 211 231 150 150 Frontier Strategy Group - - Halyk Finance 187 192 HSBC 258 258 ING 190 200 100 100 JPMorgan 230 230 2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Oxford Economics 203 228 Raiffeisen Research 220 220 Renaissance Capital 260 250 30 | KZT per USD 2015 | evol. of fcst 31 | KZT per USD 2016 | evol. of fcst Sberbank 220 220 300 300 UBS 250 250 Visor Capital - - VTB Capital 199 - 250 250 WIIW 190 200 Summary Minimum 187 188 200 200 Maximum 260 260 Median 205 224 Consensus 215 224 150 150 History Maximum Maximum Consensus Consensus 30 days ago 215 224 Minimum Minimum 60 days ago 208 225 100 100 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 205 213

32 | KZT per USD 2015 | Panelist Distribution

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% < 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 > 400

Notes and sources

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 28 Exchange rate, KZT per USD (eop). 29 Quarterly exchange rate, KZT per USD (eop). 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2015 forecast during the last 18 months. 31 Exchange rate, evolution of 2016 forecast during the last 18 months. 32 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2015 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 11 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance

Current Account and Trade Balance 33 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance 10 % of GDP USD bn Kazakhstan Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 Eastern Europe BMI Research -0.2 -0.1 32.3 36.3 5 Citigroup Global Mkts -2.3 -1.0 - - Credit Suisse -1.0 0.0 - - Danske Bank - - - - 0 Deutsche Bank -1.9 0.8 - - Economic Research Institute -3.6 -2.9 16.0 16.4 EIU -2.1 1.0 17.0 25.6 -5 Frontier Strategy Group - - - - Halyk Finance -3.3 -1.4 8.6 15.1 HSBC -5.6 -2.1 24.8 31.1 -10 ING -2.7 -0.5 10.7 23.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan -3.8 -3.7 - - Oxford Economics -6.5 -4.4 15.7 16.8 Raiffeisen Research - - - - 34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst Renaissance Capital -5.9 -1.2 14.0 29.0 Sberbank - - - - 2 UBS -1.1 0.7 - - Visor Capital - - - - VTB Capital - - - - WIIW -3.1 -1.3 19.4 23.3 0 Summary Minimum -6.5 -4.4 8.6 15.1 Maximum -0.2 1.0 32.3 36.3 Median -2.9 -1.1 16.0 23.3 -2 Consensus -3.1 -1.1 17.6 24.1 History 2015 2016 30 days ago -2.7 -1.5 19.3 24.4 60 days ago -3.0 -2.0 20.0 23.6 -4 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago -3.3 -1.8 22.1 23.7

35 | Trade Balance | USD bn

100 Trade Balance Imports Exports 75

0 2000 2005 2010 2015

36 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts

Notes and sources 20 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) and the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 33 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: NBK 2015 2016 34 Current account balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 15 35 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Rosstat and Ministry of Economic Development. Source: SARK. Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 36 Trade balance, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 12 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

External Sector | Exports and Imports

Exports and Imports 37 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 90 USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 BMI Research 77.9 83.7 45.6 47.4 60 Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - Credit Suisse - - - - 30 Danske Bank - - - - Deutsche Bank - - - - 0 Economic Research Institute 51.8 52.5 35.8 36.1 EIU 54.6 60.9 37.7 35.3 Frontier Strategy Group - - - - -30 Kazakhstan Halyk Finance 57.6 65.9 49.0 50.8 Eastern Europe HSBC 61.8 67.9 37.0 36.8 -60 ING 51.3 70.4 40.6 47.4 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan - - - - Oxford Economics 53.5 57.9 37.8 41.2 Raiffeisen Research - - - - 38 | Exports | evolution of fcst Renaissance Capital 46.0 66.0 32.0 37.0 Sberbank - - - - 80 UBS - - - - Visor Capital - - - - 2015 2016 VTB Capital - - - - WIIW 58.5 64.4 39.1 41.0 70 Summary Minimum 46.0 52.5 32.0 35.3 Maximum 77.9 83.7 49.0 50.8 Median 54.6 65.9 37.8 41.0 60 Consensus 57.0 65.5 39.4 41.4 History 30 days ago 55.3 59.8 37.9 38.3 60 days ago 53.0 58.5 38.6 39.4 50 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 53.0 59.4 38.0 39.1

39 | Imports | variation in %

Kazakhstan Eastern Europe -30 2000 2005 2010 2015

40 | Imports | evol. of forecasts

2015 2016

Notes and sources 40

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (SARK). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 37 Exports, annual variation in %. 38 Exports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35 39 Imports, annual variation in %. Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 40 Imports, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 13 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

External Sector | Additional forecasts

International Reserves and External Debt 41 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt 12 USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts 2015 2016 2015 2016 BMI Research 22.6 23.7 136 131 Citigroup Global Mkts - - - - 9 Credit Suisse 20.5 21.0 166 168 Danske Bank - - - - Deutsche Bank - - - - Economic Research Institute 28.9 29.9 - - 6 EIU 28.2 26.5 154 155 Frontier Strategy Group - - - - Halyk Finance 23.8 25.3 172 192 Kazakhstan Eastern Europe HSBC - - 164 174 3 ING 22.0 23.5 163 170 2000 2005 2010 2015 JPMorgan 21.9 26.9 157 - Oxford Economics 21.7 22.4 167 174 Raiffeisen Research - - - - 42 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst Renaissance Capital - - 160 162 Sberbank - - - - 34 UBS - - - - 2015 2016 Visor Capital - - - - 32 VTB Capital 27.5 - 160 - WIIW - - - - Summary 30 Minimum 20.5 21.0 136 131 Maximum 28.9 29.9 172 192 28 Median 22.6 24.5 162 169 Consensus 24.1 24.9 160 166 26 History 30 days ago 26.7 26.9 165 172 60 days ago 26.9 27.2 163 172 24 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 90 days ago 26.9 28.8 162 169

43 | External Debt | % of GDP

120 Kazakhstan

Eastern Europe

100

40 2000 2005 2010 2015

44 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts

180

2015 2016

170

Notes and sources 160

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2019 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 41 International reserves, months of imports. 42 International reserves, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months. 150 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 43 External debt as % of GDP. 44 External debt, evolution of 2015 and 2016 forecasts during the last 18 months.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 14 FOCUSECONOMICS Kazakhstan July 2015

Fact Sheet

General Data Kazakhstan in the Region

Official name: Republic of Kazakhstan Population | %-share in Eastern Europe GDP | %-share in Eastern Europe Capital: Astana (0.7m) Other cities: Alma-Ata (1.4m) Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 3.6% 4.2% Chimkent (0.9m) Area (km2): 2,724,900

Population (million, 2014 est.): 17.4 Other 24.7% Population density (per km2, 2014): 6.4 Other 34.0% Russia Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.2 29.7%

Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 70.2 Russia Czech 40.2% Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 0.3 Republic Language: Kazakh, Russian 4.1% Measures: Metric System Poland Poland 10.9% Time: GMT+7 7.9% Turkey Ukraine 15.9% Turkey 8.9% 15.9%

Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure Telecommunication (2013) Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 26.7 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in % Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 181 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 54.0 100 100 Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 11.6 Agriculture Net Exports 80 80 Energy (2012)

Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 6,221 Manufacturing Investment 60 60 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,769 Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 86.1

Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 80.3 40 Other Industry 40 Government Consumption Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,606 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 251 20 20 Private CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 224 Services Consumption

Transportation (2013) 0 0 Airports: 96 Railways (km): 15,333 Roadways (km): 97,418 Trade Structure Waterways (km): 4,000 Chief Ports: Aqtau (Shevchenko), Atyrau (Gur'yev) Primary markets | share in %

Other EU- 27 Political Data Other Other EU-27 Other 12.9% 22.6% 20.1% 20.9% Germany President Nursultan Nazarbayev 5.1% Last elections: 26 April 2015 Next elections: April 2020 France Russia Exports 9.9% Imports Central Bank Governor: Kairat Kelimbetov 8.5% China 25.4% Germany 8.6% Russia China 35.7% 23.3% Italy Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 7.1% Agency Rating Outlook Moody’s: Baa2 Stable S&P: BBB Negative Primary products | share in % Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable Other Other 3.1% 2.3%

Food Manufact. 9.7% Strengths Weaknesses Products 12.4% Mineral Fuels • Abundant in natural resources, • Interventionist and protectionist 11.3% particularly oil economic policy Ores & Metals • Healthy public finances • Regional instability Exports 12.4% Imports • Expected increase in oil • Highly dependent on global production capacity over the next commodities prices Mineral decade • Banking sector crisis not yet Fuels Manufact. 72.1% resolved Products 76.7% . .

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 15 FOCUSECONOMICS Calendar July 2015 Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event 7 July Czech Republic May Industrial Production 7 July Estonia June Consumer Prices 7 July Poland Central Bank Meeting 7 July Romania May Industrial Production 7 July Ukraine June Consumer Prices 7 July Macedonia June Consumer Prices 8 July Bulgaria April Industrial Production 8 July Hungary June Consumer Prices 8 July Latvia June Consumer Prices 8 July Turkey May Industrial Production 9 July Czech Republic June Consumer Prices 9 July Lithuania June Consumer Prices 9 July Serbia Central Bank Meeting 10 July Romania June Consumer Prices 10 July Russia Q2 2015 Consumer Confidence (**) 10 July Slovakia May Industrial Production 10 July Slovenia May Industrial Production 10 July Turkey May Balance of Payments 10 July Belarus June Consumer Prices 13 July Poland June Consumer Prices (**) 13 July Serbia June Consumer Prices 13 July Kosovo June Consumer Prices 15 July Croatia June Consumer Prices 15 July Russia June Industrial Production (**) 15 July Kazakhstan June Industrial Production 16 July Slovakia June Consumer Prices (**) 17 July Belarus June Industrial Production 20 July Poland July Business Confidence (**) 20 July Poland June Industrial Production (**) 21 July Hungary Central Bank Meeting 21 July Lithuania June Industrial Production 22 July Russia June Merchandise Trade (**) 22 July Ukraine June Industrial Production 23 July Turkey Central Bank Meeting 23 July Turkey July Consumer Confidence 24 July Poland June Retail Sales (**) 25 July Hungary July GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index (**) 27 July Turkey July Business Confidence 29 July Croatia June Industrial Production 29 July Macedonia July Industrial Production 30 July Bulgaria June Consumer Prices 30 July Latvia Q2 2015 National Accounts (*) 30 July Lithuania Q2 2015 National Accounts (*)

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 16 FOCUSECONOMICS July 2015

Economic Release Calendar

Date Country Event 30 July Ukraine Central Bank Meeting 31 July Estonia June Industrial Production 31 July Russia Central Bank Meeting 31 July Slovenia July Consumer Prices 31 July Serbia June Industrial Production 31 July Kazakhstan June Merchandise Trade 31 July Kosovo June Merchandise Trade 1 August Czech Republic July Markit Manufacturing PMI 1 August Kazakhstan July Consumer Prices 2 August Poland July Markit Manufacturing PMI 3 August Latvia June Industrial Production 3 August Russia July Markit Manufacturing PMI 3 August Turkey July Markit PMI 3 August Turkey July Consumer Prices

(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 17 FOCUSECONOMICS Notes July 2015 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels.

The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:

Central and Eastern Europe (11 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members. South-Eastern Europe (12 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey; Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are also Central and Eastern Europe members; Cyprus and Greece are also Euro area members. Balkans (7 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. CIS countries (12 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine are not members of CIS, but are included for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure. Central Asia (5 countries): Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Caucasus (3 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

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The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Eastern Europe is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:

FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657, E-08010 Barcelona, Spain E-mail: [email protected] DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

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KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE

REAL SECTOR EXTERNAL SECTOR MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR GDP per capita Current Account Money Economic Growth Trade Balance Inflation Rate Consumption Exports Policy Interest Rate Investment Imports Exchange Rate Industrial Production International Reserves Unemployment Rate External Debt Fiscal Balance Public Debt 127 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS ASEAN Countries Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia, New Zealand East & South Asia Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand Central America Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, & Caribbean Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela Central & Eastern Europe Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Slovenia CIS Countries Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine South-Eastern Europe Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia & Turkey Major Economies G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland Euro Area Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain Nordic Economies Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden & Iceland Middle East & Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, North Africa Tunisia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen Sub-Saharan Africa Angola, Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia

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