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First Sensor AG Sponsored Research First Sensor AG Sponsored Research Germany | Technology Hardware & Equipment Investment Research Full Company Report Reason: Company newsflow 17 May 2018 Accumulate Narrowing the profitability gap to peers from Share price: EUR 23.90 The First Sensor group (FIS) is an established sensor producer with leading closing price as of 16/05/2018 market positions in clearly defined strategic target markets. During the next Target price: EUR 27.00 years the group will benefit from various megatrends related to different industries. Based on its outlined strategy the group will reach a sustainable, Upside/Downside Potential 13.0% higher level of profitability in our view. Furthermore the group will remain a Reuters/Bloomberg SISG.DE/SIS GR strong cash flow generator. The strong share price performance since the Market capitalisation (EURm) 244 beginning of 2016 already partly reflects the positive outlook. We initiate our Current N° of shares (m) 10 coverage for the First Sensor shares with an Accumulate rating and a target Free float 59% price of EUR 27.00 per share. Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 29 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 742.95 Price high/low 12 months 11.15 / 30.50 Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -2.05/6.70/105.15 Benefitting from some megatrends: FIS serves three strategic target markets Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e which are Industrial, Medical and Mobility. Industry 4.0 will change the Sales (m) 148 157 168 philosophy of production and sensors and sensor systems definitely will play an EBITDA (m) 20 23 23 important role. In Medical E-health applications are on the rise, while in Mobility EBITDA margin 13.3% 14.4% 13.9% EBIT (m) 11 12 14 autonomous driving, among other factors, is in the centre of First Sensor's EBIT margin 7.2% 7.9% 8.0% interest. Net Profit (adj.)(m) 4 7 8 ROCE 6.0% 7.0% 7.6% Five pillar strategy: The profitable growth strategy is based on five pillars: 1) Net debt/(cash) (m) 23 20 15 Target Markets Industrial, Medical and Mobility where FIS will benefit from Net Debt Equity 0.3 0.2 0.2 several megatrends. Therefore more customised products and solutions will be Net Debt/EBITDA 1.2 0.9 0.6 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 10.6 10.5 10.8 developed. 2) Key customers and products: The benefit will come from better EV/Sales 1.7 1.7 1.5 economies of scale. 3) Forward Integration: Selling more systems and solutions EV/EBITDA 12.6 11.8 11.2 which offer a higher margin potential. 4) Internationalization: Entrance and EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.6 11.8 11.2 penetration of new markets in North America and Asia. 5) Operational EV/EBIT 23.4 21.4 19.2 P/E (adj.) nm 35.6 31.9 excellence: Cross sectional function for better margins. P/BV 2.8 2.8 2.7 OpFCF yield 1.2% 1.9% 2.9% Profitability uplift: With regard to EBIT-margins FIS harvested first fruits, as Dividend yield 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% can be seen in the EBIT-margin 2016 of 6.6% (2015: 0.9%) and 2017 of 7.2%. EPS (adj.) 0.40 0.67 0.75 Mid-term we estimate a level of >9% while the company is aiming for ~10% on a BVPS 7.91 8.42 8.99 sustainable level, what is not out of reach in our view. DPS 0.16 0.18 0.20 Shareholders FIS a strong cash flow generator: The operating cash flow margin in the last DPE Deutsche Private Equity GmbH 36%; Teslin Capital Management BV 5%; two years came out higher than 10%, combined with a favourable cash conversion rate >"1" (2013: 3.8x). We expect this level to continue so that vvdsvdvsdy32 financing of the growth, in addition with other financial sources, is secured in our 30 28 view. 26 24 22 Reopening of dividend payments: After ten years without paying dividends for 20 2017 the management made the proposal to the AGM to pay EUR 0.16 per 18 16 share (payout ratio of 40%). We interpret this as a sign of confidence to capital 14 12 markets that First Sensor is on the right track. 10 Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18 Source: Factset Key risks comprise among other factors: 1) FIS might not keep the speed with FIRST SENSOR AG SDAX (Rebased) regard to new, innovative products and as a result could lose market share over Analyst(s) time. 2) FIS will not meet timely all defined milestones of their overall strategy Winfried Becker [email protected] plan what can result in a lower than expected profitability. 3) Hiring of new and +49 69 58997-416 skilled employees could become more challenging. Produced by: For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report. All ESN research is available on Bloomberg, “ESNR”, Thomson-Reuters, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) First Sensor AG CONTENTS First Sensor at a glance 3 Investment case in charts 4 Investment case and SWOT analysis 5 Valuation 7 DCF valuation 7 Peer group analysis 9 Company profile 12 Company overview 12 First Sensor's strategy for growth 12 Segment Industrial 15 Segment Medical 16 Segment Mobility 17 Market environment 19 Financials 23 Earnings analysis 23 Financial analysis 25 List of abbreviations 28 Page 2 First Sensor AG Exhibit 1: First Sensor at a glance Business Units Industrial Medical Mobility A wide range of standardized and customized sensors in such applications as First Sensor offers solutions measuring pressure, flow, liquid level, oxygen, In the segment Mobility, First Sensor develops and manufacturs sensor Products/ length measurement, radiation and security, Smart Building, industrial process light, radiation and acceleration for such areas as breathing and respiration, devices in such applications as advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) applications control and aerospace dialysis, endoscopy, and diacnostics. and OEM pressure sensors and camera solutions A broad range of industrial end-markets OEMs for medical devices Automotive OEMs and large suppliers, retrofitters Customers Daimler Trucks, VW, FUSO, Volvo, Renault, Paccar, Hella, Delphi, Velodyne, A broad customer base of c. 2.000 business clients Roche, Fresenius, Siemens, Draegerwerke Autoliv, Kenworth, DAF, Navistar, Western Star No concrete figures disclosed; most likely above average position pressure Market share/ No concrete figures disclosed; most likely strong position in industrial pressure Most likely strong position in pressure and flow sensors; optical sensors (e.g. LiDAR systems) with strong growth in upcoming positioning sensors and optical sensor solutions years A) Miniaturization of medical technology, B) increasing demand for intelligent Drivers A) Development of Industry 4.0, B) Demand for process automation solutions, which analyse and communicate the measured data, C) general e- A) Autonomous driving, B) Green mobility health trend Main Hamamatsu, Amphenol Advanced Sensors, Excelitas, Detection Technology, Honeywell, all sensors, Merit Sensor, OSI Systems, Sensirion Bosch, Hamamatsu, Excelitas, Sensata Technologies competitors Smi Pressure Sensors Entry barriers/ Positioned in strategic target markets which are of limited interest for large players; FIS covers the entire value chain for sensor solution systems; focus on individual solutions for specific customer needs; higher pricing power for sensor competitive advantage system solutions due to high complexity; lower pricing power in the direction of suppliers; Strategy: Higher profitability Guidance 2018e (First Sensor): equinet Estimates Consensus EUR 150-160m EUR 157m n.a. (I) Targets and Markets Revenue: Revenue: y/y 1.7% - 8.5% y/y 6.4% n.a. Strategy & (II) Key Customer & Products Guidance (III) Forward integration EBIT 7.0% - 9.0% EBIT 7.9% n.a. (IV) Internationalization Sales (EURm) 147.5 EBITDA (EURm) 19.6 EBIT adj. (EURm) 10.6 Sales 5Y hist. CAGR 5.7% 2017 Margin 13.3% Margin 7.2% Organic growth y/y n.a. Sales split by region Sales split by division Group sales development 200 10.0% 10% 0% DACH 8.0% Industrial 150 12% 30% Other Europe 6.0% Sales & EBIT 100 Split m EUR 50% 4.0% North America 51% Medical 50 2.0% 28% Asia 0 0.0% 19% Mobility 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e Other Industrial Medical Mobility EBIT margin CEO Dr. Dirk Rothweiler CFO Dr. Mathias Gollwitzer Shareholder structure CEO (appointed until end of 2019) CFO (appointed until 2022) DPE Deutsche • Background in physics • Head of group controlling, EnBW Priv ate Equity Shareholder GmbH structure & • EVP Optical Systems at Jenoptik • CFO Mercedes-Benz France SAS 36% management • Vice President Sales & Service at TCZ • Head of Corporate Controlling, DaimlerChrysler AG Free Float • MD Asia-Pacific for Süss Microtec AG 59% Teslin Capital Management BV 5% # of employees 798 (FTE) FY 2017 Source: First Sensor, equinet Research; Customers: solely equinet Research Page 3 First Sensor AG Investment Case in Charts Exhibit 2: Long-term perspectives for sensors Exhibit 3: FIS active in 4-5 sensor market segments 6% Industrial 5% 36% Automotive 8% Consumer Medical 21% Aerospace and Defence Other 22% Source: Yole Développment Source: AMR, BCC, R&M, equinet Research Exhibit 4: EBIT-margin improvement long-term … Exhibit 5: … and short-term 200.0 organic growth since 2012 40.0% 60 15.0% 160.0 10.0% 20.0% 40 120.0 5.0% 0.0% EUR m EUR 20 EUR m EUR 80.0 0.0% -20.0% 40.0 0 -5.0% 0.0 -40.0% Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q1 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018e Q3 Q2 2018e Q2 2018e Q4 Revenue EBIT Margin Revenues EBIT Margin Source: First Sensor, equinet Research Source: First Sensor, equinet Research Exhibit 6: FIS a strong cash flow generator Exhibit 7: EBIT-margin and multiple landscape 30 Hamamatsu 30.0 Photonics 25 Jenoptik ams AG Melexis 20.0 First Sensor 20 10.0 Integrated OSI Systems TE Connectivity 15 Device Technology EUR m EUR 0.0 Elmos Sensata 10 Technologies -10.0 Semiconductor Detection Technology EV/EBIT 2018e 5 -20.0 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Operating CF Operating FCF EBIT-Margin 2018e Source: First Sensor, equinet Research Source: FactSet, equinet Research Page 4 First Sensor AG Investment case and SWOT analysis The First Sensor group currently holds leading market positions in its defined strategic end- markets.
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