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Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2017

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Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2017 BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP7920, 9 March 2017 Northern Ireland By Noel Dempsey Assembly Elections: 2017 Contents: 1. Background 2. Main parties 1998 to 2017 3. Candidates and MLAs 4. Results 5. Turnout 6. NI Assembly 1998 to 2017 7. 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly Members www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2017 Contents Summary 3 1. Background 4 How many representatives are elected? 4 What is the system used to elect MLAs? 4 What is a petition of concern? 5 2. Main parties 1998 to 2017 6 3. Candidates and MLAs 9 4. Results 10 5. Turnout 12 6. NI Assembly 1998 to 2017 13 7. 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly Members 15 Tables and underlying data in this briefing paper are available as Excel files via: http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7920 Abbreviations: Alliance - Alliance Party of Northern Ireland DUP – Democratic Unionist Party MLA – Member of the Legislative Assembly SDLP – Social Democratic & Labour Party TUV – Traditional Unionist Voice UKIP – UK Independence Party UK Unionists – UK Unionist Party UUP – Ulster Unionist Party … - not applicable All data on the 2 March 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly elections in this briefing paper have been sourced from The Electoral Office of Northern Ireland, NI Assembly Elections 2 March 2017 unless stated otherwise. Cover page image: Belfast Stormont Parliament attributed to EHRENBERG Kommunikation – licenced under CCA Share-Alike 2.0 Generic, image cropped. 3 Commons Library Briefing, 9 March 2017 Summary The Northern Ireland Assembly elections on 2 March 2017 took place just 301 days since the previous elections. The resignation of the Northern Ireland Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness, on 9 January 2017 set in train a sequence of statutory provisions that has led to an early election to the Northern Ireland Assembly. The March 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections were conducted with the Single Transferrable Vote system. 90 Members were elected, 5 for each of the 18 constituencies; previously 108 Members were elected. The DUP remained the largest party in the Assembly with 28 MLAs (31.1% of seats) although they no longer have enough MLAs to unilaterally use a “petition of concern” (a blocking mechanism) in the Assembly. Sinn Féin is the second largest party with 27 MLAs (30% of seats). The UUP lost their position as the third largest party in the Assembly (a position they had held since 2007) and was replaced by the SDLP. The Alliance party kept the same number of seats as they had in 2016 although their share of total seats increased. 27 women were elected to the Assembly; 30% of MLAs are women, the highest proportion ever. The turnout was 64% (based on valid votes), higher than any previous Assembly election since 1998. Northern Ireland Assembly elections: 2017 Seats won 1st Preference votes Change Change from 2016 from 2016 2017 % of seats % pts Number % of votes % pts DUP 28 31.1% -4.1% 225,413 28.1% -1.1% Sinn Féin 27 30.0% +4.1% 224,245 27.9% +3.9% SDLP 12 13.3% +2.2% 95,958 11.9% -0.1% UUP 10 11.1% -3.7% 103,314 12.9% +0.3% Alliance 8 8.9% +1.5% 72,717 9.1% +2.1% PBPA 1 1.1% -0.7% 14,100 1.8% -0.2% TUV 1 1.1% +0.2% 20,523 2.6% -0.9% Green Party 2 2.2% +0.4% 18,527 2.3% -0.4% Other 1 1.1% +0.2% 28,518 3.6% -3.6% Total 90 100.0% 803,315 100.0% 4 Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: 2017 1. Background The Northern Ireland Assembly elections on 2 March 2017 took place just 301 days from the previous elections. The resignation of the Northern Ireland Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness, on 9 January 2017 set in train a sequence of statutory provisions that has led to an early election to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Mr McGuinness’s resignation was in protest at the conduct of the First Minister, Arlene Foster of the DUP. His resignation letter sets out his reasons in detail. They pertain mainly to Ms Foster’s reaction to criticism over her role in the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) energy subsidy scheme, which has led to significant costs to the taxpayer and criticism from the Northern Ireland Audit Office.1 Further information on the reasons why Martin McGuinness resigned and the statutory provisions which has led to the election can be found in the House of Commons Library brief note entitled Northern Ireland: resignation of Deputy First Minister. How many representatives are elected? There are 90 Members of the Assembly (MLAs); 5 for each of the 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland. These areas are the same as the current constituencies used to elect the 18 Northern Ireland Members of the UK Parliament. A party standing in an Assembly election can put forward as many candidates as it wants per constituency. Previously under the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland Act 1998 there were 108 member assembly with constituencies aligned to Northern Ireland Westminster Parliamentary constituencies. Each constituency elected 6 MLAs using the Single Transferable Vote system. As a result of the Assembly Members (Reduction of Numbers) Act (Northern Ireland) 2016 the number of MLAs would be reduced from 108 to 90 at the next election after the election on 5 May 2016. The Northern Ireland Assembly briefing paper Assembly Members (Reduction of Numbers) Bill 2016 provides further detail. What is the system used to elect MLAs? Under the system of Single Transferrable Vote, voters have as many preferences as there are candidates. They mark the candidates 1, 2, 3 etc. in order of preference. Voters do not have to state a preference for all candidates – they can choose as many or as few as they like. A candidate is elected as soon as they reach the ‘quota’ computed according to a particular formula, known as the ‘Droop Quota’: = + 1 + 1 � � 1 Paul Bowers, House of Commons Library, Northern Ireland: resignation of Deputy First Minister, January 5 Commons Library Briefing, 9 March 2017 For Northern Ireland Assembly elections, the top line of this formula is the total number of valid ballot papers; the bottom line is six (five seats per constituency plus one). A candidate who has reached or exceeded the quota is deemed elected. Any surplus votes are then redistributed fractionally to the other candidates on the basis of the second choices expressed by electors. The same operation is carried out in the case of candidates placed last, who are eliminated. If there are still seats to be filled after the second count, the process continues. STV in practice: 1. The ballot paper lists the names of the candidates from each party. Voters put a ‘1’ next to the name of their favoured candidate, a ‘2’ next to the name of their next favoured candidate and so on. They stop when they cannot decide between the candidates – they do not need to vote for them all. 2. The number of votes which candidates need to be elected (the ‘quota’) is calculated by dividing the total number of valid ballot papers by the number of people to be elected plus one 3. The ballot papers are sorted into piles according to the first preferences. If any candidate has more first preference votes than the quota, they are elected. 4. The next stage is to transfer any surplus votes for these elected candidates, i.e. the difference between their vote and the quota needed to be elected. To avoid the problem of deciding which of the votes are surplus, all ballot papers are transferred but at a reduced value so that the total adds up to the number of surplus votes. 5. After all the surpluses have been transferred, more candidates might have achieved the quota to be elected. If they have not, then the candidate with the fewest votes is excluded and their votes are transferred to the voters’ second preferences. 6. This process of transferring surpluses and excluding candidates continues until enough candidates have reached the quota to fill all the places to be elected. Adapted from: Electoral Reform Society, What is STV? What is a petition of concern? A petition of concern is a mechanism within the Assembly which allows a group of at least 30 MLAs to block a decision of the Assembly. In such cases, a vote on proposed legislation will only pass if supported by a weighted majority (60%) of members voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting. A petition of concern can be used regardless of subject matter.2 2 Gareth Gordon, BBC, Petitions of concern: Is Stormont’s safeguard system being abused?, 9 July 2013. Democratic Unionist Party • In 2017, the DUP Summary 1998 to 2017 retained its position 1998 2003 2007 2011 2016 2017 as the largest party in the Assembly Seats No. 20 30 36 38 38 28 which it had been % 18.5% 27.8% 33.3% 35.2% 35.2% 31.1% since 2003. 1st pref votes No. 146,917 177,944 207,721 198,436 202,567 225,413 % 18.1% 25.3% 30.1% 30.0% 29.2% 28.1% • In 2017, DUP Women MLAs No. 1 3 3 5 8 6 candidates had % 5% 10% 8% 13% 21% 21% 28.1% of first preference votes, down slightly on 2011 and 2016. Seats % 1st pref votes % 40% • Just over 1 in 5 (21%) of DUP MLAs 30% are women; the same proportion as 20% in 2016.
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