South West Monsoon
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SITUATION REPORT India South West Monsoon The south-west monsoon has been active during June and July across the country. As per IMD reports mid season report, for this year 2007, southwest monsoon had set-in over the South Andaman Sea on 10th May, almost 10 days ahead of its normal date, in association with the formation of a Depression over the North Andaman Sea (3rd–5th May) and the subsequent advancement of monsoon flow was disrupted due to the formation of a low pressure system in the mid-latitude westerlies that culminated into a cyclonic storm “Akash” had moved northeastward during 13th- 15th May. It also disrupted the monsoon flow by prolonging the mid-latitude westerly intrusion over the region. Monsoon system revived gradually and the onset took place over Kerala on 28th May, 4 days in advance of the normal date of onset over Kerala. Once again the monsoon flow was disrupted due to the formation of a Super Cyclone, “Gonu”, over East-Central Arabian Sea (1st-7th June) which crossed the coast of Oman and subsequently Makran coast of Iran. Further the advancement of monsoon took place from 8th June onwards after a hiatus of 9 days. It covered the north-eastern states by 10th June, peninsular and central India by 25th June and subsequently the entire country on 4th July, nearly 11 days ahead of normal schedule. The active monsoon phase started with the formation of a Deep Depression over the West Central Bay of Bengal (21st – 23rd June). The system crossed Andhra coast close to Kakinada, moved west- north-westwards across the south peninsula and weakened into a low pressure area and emerged into the North East Arabian Sea on 24th June. This low pressure area intensified subsequently into a cyclonic storm `Yemyin’ over the North Arabian Sea (25th – 26th June) and crossed Pakistan coast. Another Deep Depression formed over the North West Bay of Bengal (28th – 30th June) and crossed Orissa coast, close to Puri and moved westwards, gradually forming into a low pressure area over southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood. This gave rise to active/ vigorous monsoon conditions over the central India and parts of peninsula. Subsequently, a Depression that was formed over Bangladesh coast (4th – 9th July), which also took a westerly course had reached up to Rajasthan as a low pressure area. This was followed by another well marked low pressure area, which formed over the North West Bay off Orissa – West Bengal of Bengal coast (13th – 18th July). It moved north- westward and dissipated over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood. Thereafter, weak monsoon conditions prevailed over the country as the monsoon trough shifted to the foothills of the Himalayas and it continued to persist there till the end of July. Rainfall Distribution: the Monsoon activity was subdued during the first 10 days of June. However, rainfall activity over the country started improving from 11th June and subsequently active monsoon conditions prevailed over the country almost for one month from 11th June. Monsoon remained in a weak phase during the second fortnight of July. However, in North-East India, Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal & Sikkim received above normal rainfall during this period. During the month of June 2007, rainfall was excess in 14, normal in 16 and deficient in 5 meteorological sub-divisions It was scanty in only one sub-division (Jharkhand). As on 30th June, the cumulative seasonal rainfall averaged over the country was 14% above of its Long Period Average (LPA). During the month of July 2007, rainfall was excess in 7, normal in 18 and deficient in 11 sub- divisions (Fig.4). The monthly rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during the month of July 2007 was 97% of its LPA. As on 31st July, the cumulative seasonal rainfall since 1st June was averaged over the country as a whole was 103% of its LPA. Over the four broad geographical regions of India, the cumulative rainfall was 94% of LPA over NW India, 99% over NE India, 105% over Central India and 118% over South Peninsula. As on 31st July, cumulative seasonal rainfall was excess in 11, normal in 20 and deficient in 5 meteorological sub-divisions. Today’s Weather Update: The depression over Chhattisgarh has moved west-northwestwards and lay centred over East Madhya Pradesh. The system is likely to continue to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken further. Under its influence, widespread rainfall (>25cm) is likely to occur over South Madhya Pradesh & Vidarbha till 9th August and decrease thereafter. Isolated rainfall is also likely over Chhattisgarh and Marathawada during next 24 hours only. Enhanced rainfall activity (>25cm) is likely over Gujarat state, Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) and Madhya Maharashtra till 9th and decrease thereafter. Fairly widespread rainfall is also likely over south Rajasthan during the same period. The sea Sitrep –-Flood 8th August 2007 SITUATION REPORT India conditions along off-shore of Arabian Sea particularly from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast widespread rainfall persist with visibility being poor and state of sea will be moderately rough. Along the off shores of Bay of Bengal, the state of sea will be moderately rough with on-shore winds blowing at 45 - 55 kmph in a south-westerly direction and poor visibility. The following table shows the level of water in rivers and dams. 17 rivers are flowing at danger levels with a moderate flooding trend and 13 rivers flow in a low flood trend. River Inflow Flood Forecast District State Trend Flow Trends of Dams & River touching Moderated Flood situation Ghaghra Ayodhya Faizabad Uttar Pradesh Falling Kosi Baltara Khagharia Bihar Falling Rapti Bansi Siddharthnagar Uttar Pradesh Rising Bagmati Benibad Muzaffarpur Bihar Falling Adhwara Group Ekmighat Darbhanga Bihar Falling Ghaghra Elgin Bridge Barabanki Uttar Pradesh Falling Rapti Gorakhpur (Birdghat) Gorakhpur Uttar Pradesh Falling Bagmati Hayaghat Dharbhanga Bihar Falling Adhwara Group Kamtaul Darbhanga Bihar Falling Burhi Gandak Khagaria Khagharia Bihar Falling Kosi Kursela Katihar Bihar Falling Burhi Gandak Muzaffarpur Sikandarpur Bihar Falling Burhi Gandak Rosera Samastipur Bihar Falling Burhi Gandak Samastipur Samastipur Bihar Falling Ghaghra Turtipar Ballia Uttar Pradesh Low Flood Situation Kosi Basua Supaul Bihar Falling Kosi Basua Supaul Bihar Rising Ganga Bhagalpur Bhagalpur Bihar Falling Ganga Chatia Mothihari Bihar Falling Kopilli Dharmatul Morigaon Assam Falling Ganga Hathidah Patna Bihar Falling Mahananda Jhawa Katihar Bihar Steady Jiabharali Jiabharali (NTX) Sonitpur Assam Steady Ganga Kannauj Kannauj Uttar Pradesh Rising Ganga Kanpur Kanpur Uttar Pradesh Rising Kushiyara Karimganj Karimganj Assam Falling Burhi Gandak Lalbeghiaghat Mothihari Bihar Falling Brahmaputra Neamatighat Jorhat Assam Falling Dhansiri (S) Numaligarh Golaghat Assam Rising Ganga Patna (Dighaghat) Patna Bihar Rising Ganga Patna (Gandhighat) Patna Bihar Rising Puthimari Puthimari (NTX) Kamrup Assam Falling Dam/Reservoirs not exceeding Warning Levels Alamati Dam Krishna Bijapur North Interior Karnataka Rising Hirakud Dam Mahanadi Sambalpur Orissa Rising Narayanpur Dam Krishna Gulbarga North Interior Karnataka Rising Telangana (Andhra P.D.Jurala Project Krishna Mehboobnagar Rising Pradesh) Rayalaseema (Andhra Srisailam Dam Krishna Kurnool Rising Pradesh) Tungabhadra Dam Tungbhadra Bellai South Interior Karnataka Rising AFFECTED STATES • Bihar: Due to heavy rainfall in Upper River catchment areas of Nepal and also in northern parts of Bihar unprecedented floods 19 Districts have been affected. A total population of about 12.398,000 million has been affected in 110 blocks, 584 Panchayats and 3173 - Sitamarhi (17 talukas), Muzaffarpur (12 talukas), Sahraha (6 talukas), Patna (6 talukas), Bhagalpur (9 talukas), East Champarah (23 talukas), West Champaran (8 talukas), Darbhanga (18 talukas), Supaul (6 Sitrep –-Flood 8th August 2007 SITUATION REPORT India talukas), Katihar (11 talukas), Madhubhani (18 talukas), Samasitpur (8 talukas), Sheohar (5 talukas, Nalanda (7 talukas), Gopalganj (8 talukas), Madhepura ( 3) Araia and Begusarai. The excessive rains in a short span of time in catchment areas of Bagmati, Kamala Balan and Burhi Gandak have caused breaches along the embankments of these rivers. Altogether 23 breaches were reported of which 6 were along the embankments of Bagmati, 14 nos. along Kamala Balan and 1 each on Khiroi, Burhi Gandak and Bhutahi balan rivers. The canal irrigation network has been damaged leaving the entire Eastern Kosi canal system, Chandan irrigation system and part of the Eastern Gandak canal system in its low lying areas damaged which requires repairs and restoration. Extensive damage to road network in North & East areas has left roads disconnecting District head quarters, Sub Division head quarters and Block head quarters due to overtopping of flowing water upto 3 1/2 ft to 4 ft. above the road. The roads developed breached at sections due to strong currents. The National Highways connecting Darbhanga and Madhubani and parts of the East-West Corridor under construction being overtopped. The road connecting Bettia (NH- 28B) and Raxaul (NH-28A) were overtopped. Similarly the Darbhanga-Samastipur road and NH- 107 was overtopped. Major bridges and cross drainage works in the districts of North & East Bihar have suffered extensive damage. The district of Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Sheohar, East Champara, West Champaran, Vaishali, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur, Saharsa, Supaul, Madhepura, Purnea, Araria, Kishanganj, Katihar, Khagaria,