Continuous Improvement, Probability, and Statistics Using Creative Hands-On Techniques Continuous Improvement Series Series Editors: Elizabeth A. Cudney and Tina Kanti Agustiady PUBLISHED TITLES Affordability: Integrating Value, Customer, and Cost for Continuous Improvement Paul Walter Odomirok, Sr. Design for Six Sigma: A Practical Approach through Innovation Elizabeth A. Cudney and Tina Kanti Agustiady Continuous Improvement, Probability, and Statistics Using Creative Hands-On Techniques William Hooper All graphs produced in Minitab Statistical Software. Please visit www.Minitab.com for details. All photos shot at GAALT Studios, Granger, Indiana. 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Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Hooper, William (Writer on statistics) Title: Continuous improvement, probability, and statistics : using creative hands-on techniques / William Hooper. Description: Boca Raton : CRC Press, 2017. | Series: Continuous improvement series | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2016049741 | ISBN 9781138035072 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781315269498 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Statistics--Study and teaching. | Probabilities--Study and teaching. Classification: LCC QA276.18 .H66 2017 | DDC 519.5--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016049741 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Dedication This book is dedicated all students that have struggled to learn data analysis, statistics, or continuous improvement. Contents Preface: Learning data, statistics, and continuous improvement another way ......................................................................................................xv Acknowledgments ........................................................................................ xvii Author ...............................................................................................................xix Part I: Simple steps to making probability interesting Chapter 1 The science of learning: Make it interesting or shocking ............................................................................. 3 Why we still remember where we were and what we were doing on 9/11 ...................................................................................................... 3 Overview of the chapters .................................................................................. 7 Part one: Chapters two through four. Card tricks and probability ....... 7 Part two: Chapters five through ten. Juggling and statistics .................. 8 Part three: Chapters eleven through thirteen. Experimental helicopter for continuous improvement .................................................... 9 Part four: Chapters fourteen and fifteen. Making data and statistics fun and interesting ....................................................................... 9 Bibliography ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 The use of two very basic card tricks to explain probability theory ..................................................................... 11 Objectives .......................................................................................................... 11 The basics of the multiplication principle for probability theory ............. 11 Classroom activity 1: Teaching the multiplication principle by card trick—The aces and kings card trick ............................................... 12 The step-by-step mechanics of how a simple card trick can greatly enhance the learning process ......................................................................... 12 Step 1: Preload the deck .............................................................................. 12 Step 2: Bring up to the front a member of the class or audience .......... 12 Step 3: Optional fake shuffle #1 ................................................................. 12 Step 4: Strategically have the student cut the deck ................................ 13 vii viii Contents Steps 5A–5D: The fake shuffle. Moving the four aces and the four kings to the bottom four on the table in what is believed are fully shuffled cards ............................................................................................... 14 Step 5A: Move your four kings from the bottom of the deck to the bottom of a new stack on the table ................................................ 15 Step 5C: Move the student’s stack with the four aces on top to her/his new stack ................................................................................... 16 Step 5D: Shuffle all cards except the cards that have been placed on the table .................................................................................. 16 Step 6: The fake shuffle continued ............................................................ 18 Step 7: Form four piles of cards on each side of the table from the two halves .................................................................................... 18 Card trick finale: Using multiplication principle of probability theory ....... 19 The odds of getting beat ................................................................................. 21 A card trick for teaching probabilities of independent events .................. 22 How to show the difference by card illusion ............................................... 22 Step 1: Student selects and memorizes a card ......................................... 22 Step 2: Deck split ......................................................................................... 22 Step 3: Card insertion and pinky break ................................................... 25 Step 4: Moving the target card to top of the pile .................................... 25 Step 5: False showing of card to student .................................................. 26 Step 6: Reveal ............................................................................................... 26 Step 7: Returning the target card to the deck .......................................... 26 Comparing dependent and independent events ......................................... 28 Reality check: How it works in operations ................................................... 29 Summary and potential next steps for instructors and students ............. 29 Author’s note ..................................................................................................... 29 Bonus section: The process map .................................................................... 30 Summary and next steps ................................................................................ 32 Bibliography ..................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 3 Combinations and permutations by card magic ................. 33 Objectives .......................................................................................................... 33 Overview ........................................................................................................... 33 The concept of combinations and the phone number card trick .............. 33 The mathematics behind a flush in poker .................................................... 34 Classroom activity 3.1: The poker hand flush by the “phone number” card trick .......................................................................................... 35 Step 1: Start by stacking a standard deck similar to examples