Continuous Improvement, Probability, and Statistics Using Creative Hands-On Techniques Continuous Improvement Series Series Editors: Elizabeth A
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Continuous Improvement, Probability, and Statistics Using Creative Hands-On Techniques Continuous Improvement Series Series Editors: Elizabeth A. Cudney and Tina Kanti Agustiady PUBLISHED TITLES Affordability: Integrating Value, Customer, and Cost for Continuous Improvement Paul Walter Odomirok, Sr. Design for Six Sigma: A Practical Approach through Innovation Elizabeth A. Cudney and Tina Kanti Agustiady Continuous Improvement, Probability, and Statistics Using Creative Hands-On Techniques William Hooper All graphs produced in Minitab Statistical Software. Please visit www.Minitab.com for details. All photos shot at GAALT Studios, Granger, Indiana. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2017 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed on acid-free paper Version Date: 20160512 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-138-03507-2 (Paperback) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all mate- rial reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged, please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, repro- duced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www. copyright.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organi- zation that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Hooper, William (Writer on statistics) Title: Continuous improvement, probability, and statistics : using creative hands-on techniques / William Hooper. Description: Boca Raton : CRC Press, 2017. | Series: Continuous improvement series | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2016049741 | ISBN 9781138035072 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9781315269498 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Statistics--Study and teaching. | Probabilities--Study and teaching. Classification: LCC QA276.18 .H66 2017 | DDC 519.5--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016049741 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Dedication This book is dedicated all students that have struggled to learn data analysis, statistics, or continuous improvement. Contents Preface: Learning data, statistics, and continuous improvement another way ......................................................................................................xv Acknowledgments ........................................................................................ xvii Author ...............................................................................................................xix Part I: Simple steps to making probability interesting Chapter 1 The science of learning: Make it interesting or shocking ............................................................................. 3 Why we still remember where we were and what we were doing on 9/11 ...................................................................................................... 3 Overview of the chapters .................................................................................. 7 Part one: Chapters two through four. Card tricks and probability ....... 7 Part two: Chapters five through ten. Juggling and statistics .................. 8 Part three: Chapters eleven through thirteen. Experimental helicopter for continuous improvement .................................................... 9 Part four: Chapters fourteen and fifteen. Making data and statistics fun and interesting ....................................................................... 9 Bibliography ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 The use of two very basic card tricks to explain probability theory ..................................................................... 11 Objectives .......................................................................................................... 11 The basics of the multiplication principle for probability theory ............. 11 Classroom activity 1: Teaching the multiplication principle by card trick—The aces and kings card trick ............................................... 12 The step-by-step mechanics of how a simple card trick can greatly enhance the learning process ......................................................................... 12 Step 1: Preload the deck .............................................................................. 12 Step 2: Bring up to the front a member of the class or audience .......... 12 Step 3: Optional fake shuffle #1 ................................................................. 12 Step 4: Strategically have the student cut the deck ................................ 13 vii viii Contents Steps 5A–5D: The fake shuffle. Moving the four aces and the four kings to the bottom four on the table in what is believed are fully shuffled cards ............................................................................................... 14 Step 5A: Move your four kings from the bottom of the deck to the bottom of a new stack on the table ................................................ 15 Step 5C: Move the student’s stack with the four aces on top to her/his new stack ................................................................................... 16 Step 5D: Shuffle all cards except the cards that have been placed on the table .................................................................................. 16 Step 6: The fake shuffle continued ............................................................ 18 Step 7: Form four piles of cards on each side of the table from the two halves .................................................................................... 18 Card trick finale: Using multiplication principle of probability theory ....... 19 The odds of getting beat ................................................................................. 21 A card trick for teaching probabilities of independent events .................. 22 How to show the difference by card illusion ............................................... 22 Step 1: Student selects and memorizes a card ......................................... 22 Step 2: Deck split ......................................................................................... 22 Step 3: Card insertion and pinky break ................................................... 25 Step 4: Moving the target card to top of the pile .................................... 25 Step 5: False showing of card to student .................................................. 26 Step 6: Reveal ............................................................................................... 26 Step 7: Returning the target card to the deck .......................................... 26 Comparing dependent and independent events ......................................... 28 Reality check: How it works in operations ................................................... 29 Summary and potential next steps for instructors and students ............. 29 Author’s note ..................................................................................................... 29 Bonus section: The process map .................................................................... 30 Summary and next steps ................................................................................ 32 Bibliography ..................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 3 Combinations and permutations by card magic ................. 33 Objectives .......................................................................................................... 33 Overview ........................................................................................................... 33 The concept of combinations and the phone number card trick .............. 33 The mathematics behind a flush in poker .................................................... 34 Classroom activity 3.1: The poker hand flush by the “phone number” card trick .......................................................................................... 35 Step 1: Start by stacking a standard deck similar to examples