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General Motors' Futurama Exhibit in the 1939 World's Fair Included A and Intelligent Connected Downloaded from http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/memagazineselect/article-pdf/134/11/32/6357972/me-2012-nov2.pdf by guest on 30 September 2021 Automated cars that communicate: How much can that save us in lives, money, and frustration? Ahmed K. Noor and Sven A. Beiker eneral Motors’ Futurama exhibit in the 1939 World’s Fair included a vision of what transportation might look like 20 Gyears in the future. The forecast for 1959 included self-guided cars and automated highways. GM’s forecast was a bit hasty, and its full vision has yet to be realized. But developments since then, especially in the past four decades, have brought us closer. Major automotive companies have added automated functions to their vehicles, and various driver assistance systems—adaptive cruise control, video-based lane analysis, steering and braking assistance—are currently available on high-end models. Automated systems can assess some traffic situ- Ahmed K. Noor is Eminent ations faster than humans can. As a result, auto- Scholar and William E. Lobeck mated driving is expected to significantly reduce Professor of Modeling, Simulation, and Visualization accidents and traffic fatalities, improve traffic flow Engineering at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va. Sven A. and highway capacity, achieve better fuel efficiency, OMINION UNIVERSITY OMINION d Beiker is the executive director and reduce emissions. d of the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford (CARS) Cars will be able to drive safely while close in the Mechanical Engineering Department of Stanford together, with far less need for wasteful accelera- University in California. tion and braking. If people can be entirely relieved WILSON/OL DEREK 32 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING | November 2012 Autonomous Cars.indd 32 10/5/12 12:39 PM Downloaded from http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/memagazineselect/article-pdf/134/11/32/6357972/me-2012-nov2.pdf by guest on 30 September 2021 Transportation may some day stress the “auto” in automobile: vehicles that can safely guide themselves through a cluttered and unpredictable world. November 2012 | MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 33 Autonomous Cars.indd 33 10/5/12 4:22 PM of driving and navigation tasks, they will prohibit or specifically regulate the opera- be able to talk on the phone or text tion of autonomous vehicles and that without causing accidents. rule-making is required before 2015. Human error is the most costly It isn’t Futurama, but automated influence on the road. The National driving is here. Autonomous sys- Highway Traffic Safety Administra- tems help with steering and with tion reported 32,788 traffic fatali- path planning, including accelera- ties in the U.S. for 2010 and esti- tion and braking. High-precision mated that 93 percent of them are navigation, using GPS, other sen- attributable to human error. sors, and databases determine the An advocacy group, the Association route to a destination. They all make for Unmanned Vehicles International, driving easier and support the driver, Downloaded from http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/memagazineselect/article-pdf/134/11/32/6357972/me-2012-nov2.pdf by guest on 30 September 2021 published an estimate in May that traffic who remains in control. MOTORS GENERAL congestion alone costs the U.S. economy more The GM EN-V, a The level of automation can vary. The human than $85 billion a year. prototype autonomous driver may be required to monitor the system Still, the public needs to be convinced that the electric vehicle. and be prepared to take over complete control technology is useful, desirable, and safe. There are also cul- of the vehicle at any time. In highly automated and fully tural, social, legal, business, and other issues that need to automated modes, the driver becomes the operator of the be resolved before society accepts fully autonomous cars. vehicle, and does not need to monitor the system as long But there are already signs of change. Nevada has become as it is active. In case of a takeover request, the driver has a the first state to officially license autonomous vehicles. certain time to react before the system returns to the mini- California meanwhile has confirmed that the state does not mum risk condition (standstill) by itself. Accomplishments in Autonomous Vehicle Technologies n the last four decades several San Diego, Calif., before a gathering of creative minds to the development of attempts have been made in the United transportation professionals and public autonomous car concepts. As of 2012, IStates, Europe, and Japan to develop officials. Because of budget constraints, the Google fleet included five Toyota car automation systems. the U.S. Department of Transportation Priuses and one Audi TT, which continue A simple self-driving vehicle, built by canceled the program in 1998. to navigate the highways of California Japan’s Tsukuba Mechanical Engineer- In 2000 Japan’s Advanced Cruise-Assist and have logged over 200,000 miles (with ing Laboratory in 1977, could track white Highway System Research Associa- occasional human intervention). street markers for up to 50 miles and tion demonstrated the effectiveness of Researchers at MIT recently developed reach a speed of 20 miles per hour. A magnetic sensors in driver assistance an “intelligent co-pilot” system that vision-guided Mercedes-Benz automated systems on the road using a group of 38 enables the car to share control with the van, built in the 1980s by Ernst Dick- cars, buses, and trucks. driver. The system monitors the driver’s manns and his team in Munich, could Between 2000 and 2002 a consortium performance and makes behind-the- reach a maximum speed of 60 miles per of 12 car manufacturers, suppliers, and scenes adjustments to avoid collision hour on streets without traffic. research institutes were funded by the with obstacles and to keep the vehicle The first automated research vehicles European Commission to work on the within a safe region of the environment. that were able to move without human Carsense project. Stock cars were used If the driver is distracted, and is about intervention in heavy traffic for long as a platform and were augmented with to run into a barrier, the system takes distances were developed through the wide range of sensors to enable fully over, and steers the car back into a safe Pan-European Eureka Prometheus Proj- automated driving. Prototypes were suc- zone. The system is considerably lighter ect. The twin autonomous vehicles, VaMP cessfully tested at slow speeds in dense in sensors and computational require- and VITA-2, which were built in the 1990s, traffic environments, and around urban ments, and therefore is less expensive, could reach speeds exceeding 110 miles areas with traffic jams, tight curves, and than current fully autonomous vehicles, per hour on the German Autobahn. They crossings, in the presence of pedestrians. like Google’s driverless car. used computer vision to recognize very Google’s driverless car fleet and various In summer 2012 the U.S. Department of different kinds of objects and automati- autonomous vehicle competitions—such Transportation started an extensive pilot cally avoided them. as the DARPA Grand Challenge in 2005 test for vehicle safety communication The National Automated Highway and the Urban Challenge in 2007, with in Michigan. It equipped 3,000 vehicles. System Consortium successfully dem- successful entries from Stanford Uni- First results are expected next year. A onstrated in 1997 the use of a fleet of versity and Carnegie Mellon University, target date may be announced next year more than 20 fully automated vehicles and VisLab Intercontinental Autonomous for the deployment of this technology to on a seven-mile stretch of highway in Challenge in 2010—have helped attract the general public. 34 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING | November 2012 Autonomous Cars.indd 34 10/5/12 12:39 PM The goal of automation is to create intelligent vehicles not likely to meet automotive industry requirements of that can manage di erent situations and to connect all traf- being maintenance-free and una ected by dust or weath- fi c participants with each other in some way. Connected er. The challenges for the laser sensors are important, vehicles have the potential of improving situational aware- since in all automated research vehicles those sensors ness, safety, mobility, and the environment. Vehicles would provide the precise information about the contour and be able to inform drivers of roadway hazards and danger- distance of objects. To date, no alternative to laser sensing ous situations they cannot see. A vehicle driving over a has been identifi ed. patch of black ice, for example, can warn other vehicles and Sensors can provide accurate information regarding an also alert safety crews to treat the hazard. object’s distance, contour, and potentially, its material. In an intelligent vehicle, a large suite of sensors moni- However, more context information is needed to deter- tors the state of the vehicle and its surrounding environ- mine the actual driving situation, its severity, and the nec- ment. A positioning system takes data from the sensors essary action by the car. and provides information about the location of the car Current automated research vehicles cannot navigate in Downloaded from http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/memagazineselect/article-pdf/134/11/32/6357972/me-2012-nov2.pdf by guest on 30 September 2021 on the planet, on the construction zones, ac- road, and in the lane. cident areas, or other un- A motion planning expected situations as well subsystem guides the car as an experienced human in its second-to-second driver can. Current auto- movement so that it can mated driving systems are abide by tra c rules and not adequate to make deci- avoid collisions. Planning sions under uncertainty. tasks include automated For example, the images parking, and adaptive generated by laser, radar, cruise control, using A Volkswagen or camera of a plastic bag radar to control velocity autonomous blown across the street research vehicle Accomplishments in Autonomous Vehicle Technologies and distance from the is conspicuously and of a ball followed by preceding vehicle.
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