List of Cognitive Biases with Examples
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Addressing Cognitive Biases in Augmented Business Decision Systems Human Performance Metrics for Generic AI-Assisted Decision Making
Addressing Cognitive Biases in Augmented Business Decision Systems Human performance metrics for generic AI-assisted decision making. THOMAS BAUDEL* IBM France Lab, Orsay, France MANON VERBOCKHAVEN IBM France Lab & ENSAE VICTOIRE COUSERGUE IBM France Lab, Université Paris-Dauphine & Mines ParisTech GUILLAUME ROY IBM France Lab & ENSAI RIDA LAARACH IBM France Lab, Telecom ParisTech & HEC How do algorithmic decision aids introduced in business decision processes affect task performance? In a first experiment, we study effective collaboration. Faced with a decision, subjects alone have a success rate of 72%; Aided by a recommender that has a 75% success rate, their success rate reaches 76%. The human-system collaboration had thus a greater success rate than each taken alone. However, we noted a complacency/authority bias that degraded the quality of decisions by 5% when the recommender was wrong. This suggests that any lingering algorithmic bias may be amplified by decision aids. In a second experiment, we evaluated the effectiveness of 5 presentation variants in reducing complacency bias. We found that optional presentation increases subjects’ resistance to wrong recommendations. We conclude by arguing that our metrics, in real usage scenarios, where decision aids are embedded as system-wide features in Business Process Management software, can lead to enhanced benefits. CCS CONCEPTS • Cross-computing tools and techniques: Empirical studies, Information Systems: Enterprise information systems, Decision support systems, Business Process Management, Human-centered computing, Human computer interaction (HCI), Visualization, Machine Learning, Automation Additional Keywords and Phrases: Business decision systems, Decision theory, Cognitive biases * [email protected]. 1 INTRODUCTION For the past 20 years, Business Process Management (BPM) [29] and related technologies such as Business Rules [10, 52] and Robotic Process Automation [36] have streamlined processes and operational decision- making in large enterprises, transforming work organization. -
The Status Quo Bias and Decisions to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Treatment
HUMANITIES | MEDICINE AND SOCIETY The status quo bias and decisions to withdraw life-sustaining treatment n Cite as: CMAJ 2018 March 5;190:E265-7. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.171005 t’s not uncommon for physicians and impasse. One factor that hasn’t been host of psychological phenomena that surrogate decision-makers to disagree studied yet is the role that cognitive cause people to make irrational deci- about life-sustaining treatment for biases might play in surrogate decision- sions, referred to as “cognitive biases.” Iincapacitated patients. Several studies making regarding withdrawal of life- One cognitive bias that is particularly show physicians perceive that nonbenefi- sustaining treatment. Understanding the worth exploring in the context of surrogate cial treatment is provided quite frequently role that these biases might play may decisions regarding life-sustaining treat- in their intensive care units. Palda and col- help improve communication between ment is the status quo bias. This bias, a leagues,1 for example, found that 87% of clinicians and surrogates when these con- decision-maker’s preference for the cur- physicians believed that futile treatment flicts arise. rent state of affairs,3 has been shown to had been provided in their ICU within the influence decision-making in a wide array previous year. (The authors in this study Status quo bias of contexts. For example, it has been cited equated “futile” with “nonbeneficial,” The classic model of human decision- as a mechanism to explain patient inertia defined as a treatment “that offers no rea- making is the rational choice or “rational (why patients have difficulty changing sonable hope of recovery or improvement, actor” model, the view that human beings their behaviour to improve their health), or because the patient is permanently will choose the option that has the best low organ-donation rates, low retirement- unable to experience any benefit.”) chance of satisfying their preferences. -
Bad Is Stronger Than Good
Review of General Psychology Copyright 2001 by the Educational Publishing Foundation 2001. Vol. 5. No. 4. 323-370 1089-2680/O1/S5.O0 DOI: 10.1037//1089-2680.5.4.323 Bad Is Stronger Than Good Roy F. Baumeister and Ellen Bratslavsky Catrin Finkenauer Case Western Reserve University Free University of Amsterdam Kathleen D. Vohs Case Western Reserve University The greater power of bad events over good ones is found in everyday events, major life events (e.g., trauma), close relationship outcomes, social network patterns, interper- sonal interactions, and learning processes. Bad emotions, bad parents, and bad feedback have more impact than good ones, and bad information is processed more thoroughly than good. The self is more motivated to avoid bad self-definitions than to pursue good ones. Bad impressions and bad stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to disconfirmation than good ones. Various explanations such as diagnosticity and sa- lience help explain some findings, but the greater power of bad events is still found when such variables are controlled. Hardly any exceptions (indicating greater power of good) can be found. Taken together, these findings suggest that bad is stronger than good, as a general principle across a broad range of psychological phenomena. Centuries of literary efforts and religious pothesis that bad is stronger than good (see also thought have depicted human life in terms of a Rozin & Royzman, in press). That is, events struggle between good and bad forces. At the that are negatively valenced (e.g., losing metaphysical level, evil gods or devils are the money, being abandoned by friends, and receiv- opponents of the divine forces of creation and ing criticism) will have a greater impact on the harmony. -
Ambiguity Aversion in Qualitative Contexts: a Vignette Study
Ambiguity aversion in qualitative contexts: A vignette study Joshua P. White Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Andrew Perfors Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Abstract Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involv- ing contrived monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion is evident outside of such contexts is largely unknown, particularly in those contexts which cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether ambiguity aversion occurs in a variety of different qualitative domains, such as work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study and health. We presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity. In a separate study we asked participants for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by gain/loss direction but not by the prior probability estimates (with the inter- esting exception of the classic Ellsberg ‘urn’ scenario). Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts, but to different degrees, and may not be generally driven by unfavourable prior probability estimates of ambiguous events. Corresponding Author: Joshua P. White ([email protected]) AMBIGUITY AVERSION IN QUALITATIVE CONTEXTS: A VIGNETTE STUDY 2 Introduction The world is replete with the unknown, yet people generally prefer some types of ‘unknown’ to others. Here, an important distinction exists between risk and uncertainty. As defined by Knight (1921), risk is a measurable lack of certainty that can be represented by numerical probabilities (e.g., “there is a 50% chance that it will rain tomorrow”), while ambiguity is an unmeasurable lack of certainty (e.g., “there is an unknown probability that it will rain tomorrow”). -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Bias Mitigation in Data Sets
Bias Mitigation in Data Sets Shea Brown Ryan Carrier Merve Hickok Adam Leon Smith ForHumanity, BABL ForHumanity ForHumanity, AIethicist.org ForHumanity, Dragonfly [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] adam@wearedragonfly.co Abstract—Tackling sample bias, Non-Response Bias, Cognitive 2) Ethical and reputational risk - perpetuation of stereotypes Bias, and disparate impact associated with Protected Categories and discrimination, failure to abide by a Code of Ethics in three parts/papers, data, algorithm construction, and output or social responsibility policy impact. This paper covers the Data section. 3) Functional risk - bad validity, poor fit, and misalignment Index Terms—artificial intelligence, machine learning, bias, data quality with the intended scope, nature, context and purpose of the system The desire of the authors, and ForHumanity’s Independent I. INTRODUCTION Audit of AI Systems, is to explain and document mitigations Bias is a loaded word. It has serious implications and gets related to all bias in its many manifestations in the data input used a lot in the debates about algorithms that occur today. phase of AI/ML model development. Research around bias in AI/ML systems often draws in fairness, Circling back to the societal concern with the statistical even though they are two very different concepts. To avoid notion of bias - societies, under the law of different jurisdictions, confusion and help with bias mitigation, we will keep the have determined that bias is prohibited with respect to certain concepts separate. In its widest sense, bias can originate, data characteristics - human characteristics, such as race, age, or be found, across the whole spectrum of decisions made gender etc. -
Pleasantness Bias in Flashbulb Memories: Positive and Negative Flashbulb Memories of the Fall of the Berlin Wall Among East and West Germans
Memory & Cognition 2007, 35 (3), 565-577 Pleasantness bias in flashbulb memories: Positive and negative flashbulb memories of the fall of the Berlin Wall among East and West Germans ANNETTE BOHN AND DORTHE BERNTSEN Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark Flashbulb memories for the fall of the Berlin Wall were examined among 103 East and West Germans who considered the event as either highly positive or highly negative. The participants in the positive group rated their memories higher on measures of reliving and sensory imagery, whereas their memory for facts was less accurate than that of the participants in the negative group. The participants in the negative group had higher ratings on amount of consequences but had talked less about the event and considered it less central to their personal and national identity than did the participants in the positive group. In both groups, rehearsal and the centrality of the memory to the person’s identity and life story correlated positively with memory qualities. The results suggest that positive and negative emotions have different effects on the processing and long-term reten- tion of flashbulb memories. On Thursday, November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall fell Wall, and how well do they remember factual details in re- after having divided East and West Germany for 28 years. lation to the event? These are the chief questions raised in On that day at 6:57 p.m., Günther Schabowski, a leading the present article. By addressing these questions, we wish member of the ruling communist party in East Germany, to investigate whether positive versus negative affect is as- had casually announced to a stunned audience during a sociated with different qualities of flashbulb memories. -
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES in RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES IN RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR Debra L. Emmons, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani, and Curtis E. Larsen This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cogni- tive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps for grounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the check- list to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22594/dau.16-770.25.01 Keywords: Risk Management, Optimism Bias, Planning Fallacy, Cognitive Bias Reduction Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification http://www.dau.mil January 2018 This article and its accompanying research contribute an operational FIGURE 1. RESEARCH APPROACH Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist for cognitive bias mitigation in risk management for the aerospace sector. The checklist Cognitive Biases & Bias described herein offers a practical and implementable project management Enabling framework to help reduce biases in the aerospace sector and redress the Conditions cognitive limitations in the risk identification and analysis process. -
Bias and Fairness in NLP
Bias and Fairness in NLP Margaret Mitchell Kai-Wei Chang Vicente Ordóñez Román Google Brain UCLA University of Virginia Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Google Brain Tutorial Outline ● Part 1: Cognitive Biases / Data Biases / Bias laundering ● Part 2: Bias in NLP and Mitigation Approaches ● Part 3: Building Fair and Robust Representations for Vision and Language ● Part 4: Conclusion and Discussion “Bias Laundering” Cognitive Biases, Data Biases, and ML Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Margaret Mitchell Google Brain Google Brain Andrew Emily Simone Parker Lucy Ben Elena Deb Timnit Gebru Zaldivar Denton Wu Barnes Vasserman Hutchinson Spitzer Raji Adrian Brian Dirk Josh Alex Blake Hee Jung Hartwig Blaise Benton Zhang Hovy Lovejoy Beutel Lemoine Ryu Adam Agüera y Arcas What’s in this tutorial ● Motivation for Fairness research in NLP ● How and why NLP models may be unfair ● Various types of NLP fairness issues and mitigation approaches ● What can/should we do? What’s NOT in this tutorial ● Definitive answers to fairness/ethical questions ● Prescriptive solutions to fix ML/NLP (un)fairness What do you see? What do you see? ● Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves ● Bunches of bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas -
Detection of Confirmation and Distinction Biases in Visual
EuroVis Workshop on Trustworthy Visualization (TrustVis) (2019) R. Kosara, K. Lawonn, L. Linsen, and N. Smit (Editors) Detection of Confirmation and Distinction Biases in Visual Analytics Systems . A. Nalcaci , D. Girgin , S. Balki , F. Talay, H. A. Boz and S. Balcisoy 1Sabanci University, Faculty of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey Abstract Cognitive bias is a systematic error that introduces drifts and distortions in the human judgment in terms of visual decompo- sition in the direction of the dominant instance. It has a significant role in decision-making process by means of evaluation of data visualizations. This paper elaborates on the experimental depiction of two cognitive bias types, namely Distinction Bias and Confirmation Bias, through the examination of cognate visual experimentations. The main goal of this implementation is to indicate the existence of cognitive bias in visual analytics systems through the adjustment of data visualization and crowdsourc- ing in terms of confirmation and distinction biases. Two distinct surveys that include biased and unbiased data visualizations which are related to a given data set were established in order to detect and measure the level of existence of introduced bias types. Practice of crowdsourcing which is provided by Amazon Mechanical Turk have been used for experimentation purposes through prepared surveys. Results statistically indicate that both distinction and confirmation biases has substantial effect and prominent significance on decision-making process. CCS Concepts • Human-centered computing ! Empirical studies in visualization; Visualization design and evaluation methods; 1. Introduction cording to existing studies, usual heuristic errors involve confirma- tion bias, which characterizes people’s approaches to receive the Visual perception is the combination of physical and thoughtful de- confirmatory corroboration of a pre-existing hypothesis and dis- sign that provides the ability to interpret the environment and the miss contrary information. -
Memory Category Fluency, Memory Specificity, And
Journal of Experimental Psychology: General © 2019 The Author(s) 2020, Vol. 149, No. 1, 198–206 0096-3445/20/$12.00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xge0000617 BRIEF REPORT Memory Category Fluency, Memory Specificity, and the Fading Affect Bias for Positive and Negative Autobiographical Events: Performance on a Good Day–Bad Day Task in Healthy and Depressed Individuals Caitlin Hitchcock, Jill Newby, Emma Timm, Willem Kuyken Rachel M. Howard, and Ann-Marie Golden University of Oxford University of Cambridge Tim Dalgleish University of Cambridge and Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust In mentally healthy individuals, autobiographical memory is typically biased toward positive events, which may help to maintain psychological well-being. Our aim was to assess a range of important positive memory biases in the mentally healthy and explore the possibility that these biases are mitigated in those with mental health problems. We administered a novel recall paradigm that required recollection of multiple good and bad past events (the Good Day–Bad Day task) to healthy and depressed individuals. This allowed us to explore differences in memory category fluency (i.e., the ability to generate integrated sets of associated events) for positive and negative memories, along with memory specificity, and fading affect bias—a greater reduction in the intensity of memory-related affect over time for negative versus positive events. We found that healthy participants demonstrated superior category fluency for positive relative to negative events but that this effect was absent in depressed participants. Healthy participants exhibited a strong fading affect bias that was significantly mitigated, although still present, in depression. -
The Fading Affect Bias: Effects of Social Disclosure to an Interactive Versus Non-Responsive Listener
This is a repository copy of The fading affect bias: Effects of social disclosure to an interactive versus non-responsive listener. White Rose Research Online URL for this paper: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/85286/ Version: Accepted Version Article: Muir, K, Brown, C and Madill, A (2015) The fading affect bias: Effects of social disclosure to an interactive versus non-responsive listener. Memory, 23 (6). 829 - 847. ISSN 0965-8211 https://doi.org/10.1080/09658211.2014.931435 Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version - refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher’s website. Takedown If you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing [email protected] including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. [email protected] https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISCLOSURE Running head: EFFECTS OF SOCIAL DISCLOSURE The Fading Affect Bias: Effects of Social Disclosure to an Interactive versus Non-Responsive Listener Kate Muir*1, Institute of Psychological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT.