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A Study of Optimum Population Levels-A Progress Report*

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A Study of Optimum Population Levels-A Progress Report* Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA Vol. 69, No. 12, pp. 3839-3848, December 1972 A Study of Optimum Population Levels-A Progress Report* S. FRED SINGER Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va. 22903 ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to explore Then there are economic policies, investment policies, and different approaches and to develop a methodology that tax policies, all of which have an impact; for example, mort- will allow a calculation of "optimum levels of population." subsidies for veterans and other The discussion is specialized to the United States, but the gage policies and special methodology should be broad enough to handle other groups have had an effect upon the development of housing countries, including less-developed countries. The study and population distribution, but also on family size and popu- is based on economics, but with major inputs from the lation growth. areas of technology, natural resources management, en- In turn, the growth and distribution of population have vironmental effects, and demography. resources The general approach will be to develop an index for important consequences. People consume prodi- quality of life (IQL or Q-index) and to maximize this index giously-or rather they transform them into wastes. There- as a function of level and distribution of population. The fore, with an ever-growing population and an ever-increasing technique consists of a reshuffling of national income ac- standard of living, there has come a vastly increased use counts so as to be able to go from the Gross National resources of course, a vastly increased level Product (GNP) to the index for quality of life, plus a care- of natural and, ful discussion of what is and what is not to be included. of pollution. Pollution has been particularly pronounced in The initial part of the study consists of a projection of urban areas. There the density of population has become so the index for quality of life as population level increases large that the additional disamenities of crowding, of traffic and as population distribution changes, under the as- snarls, and of all kinds of urban problems, from drugs and sumption of various technologies, particularly as these burden relate to the consumption of minerals, energy, and other crime to noise, have produced an increasing economic natural resources. One would expect that as economic not only for the residents of the particular city but for the growth continues, an increasing fraction of expenditures nation as a whole. We thus conclude that governmental would be for the diseconomies produced by population policies influence population growth and distribution, but growth and economic growth. in turn have consequences that run counter to the This study should be useful by providing a rational base these may for governmental policies regarding population, both in intended effects. We have here a classic problem of feedback the United States and abroad. Another application of the that calls for systems analysis. In order to understand and study is to technology assessment, by measurement of the predict the effects of policies, we need to establish first an impact on economic well-being through the introduction adequate data base and a model. of new technologies. Therefore, one can gauge the neces- we need to ask is what sary and desirable investments in certain new technolo- One of the most important questions gies. In general, mathematical models resulting from this is the most desirable level and distribution of population. study can become useful diagnostic tools to analyze the What is the optimum or ideal for a country like the United consequences of various public and private policy decisions. States? Do we want more people or less people? If we are need to be sure moved to the going to set up far-reaching policies, we fairly In recent years the question of population has are really desirable. Instead, we find that has become also a concern of the federal that the directions center of the stage and policies are proposed, or at least discussed, without an ade- government. The establishment of the National Commission or even without a clear Future, in March quate understanding of their impact, on Population Growth and the American definition of their goals. Most people, particularly those who 1970, and the passage of the Family Planning Services and for not much the live in crowded environments, would opt Population Research Act, in December 1970, have put believe that our affecting further increase in population. Many even government in a position where policies directly population should be smaller and that this would result in the growth of population may soon come into being. for of us. A few believe that we should keep is to say that government policies have not affected a better life all This not on increasing. Some argue for an immediate zero-population population in the past, but usually this has been a by-product a slowdown is attempt to influence growth or dis- growth-ZPG-while others feel that only rather than a deliberate desirable. Most of these reactions are intuitive. Clearly, we tribution of population. Yet every government policy does to back up our have an effect, directly or indirectly, on population growth would like to have some rational analyses and distribution. During the last century, the policies of policies. t opening up the West made possible the large migration within Defining "optimum population" the United States, and also attracted many additional im- It should be clear at the outset that any quantitative result migrants. In more recent years, agricultural policies and urban about optimum population depends on the assumptions, policies may have led to the large migration from rural areas and especially on how one defines "optimum." A pragmatic to the cities. (In fact, the very success of our agricultural technology has led to a reduction of the agricultural working t It is clear that optimum is not synonymous with maximum; population from something like 80% to our present 5%.) in fact, the optimum level should be well below the maximum sustainable population level. This result is in sharp contra- distinction to, say, the raising of cattle where optimum, from the * A proposal outline of the study was published in Is There An rancher's point of view, means the level that will result in a maxi- Optimum Level of Population (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1971). mum financial yield. 3839 Downloaded by guest on September 24, 2021 3840 COSPUP: Singer Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 69 (1972) approach is to work up a definition with which reasonable to the physical environment, but there seems to be no way people can agree, calculate the corresponding optimum level, of combining these into a single index unless one can use a and then parameterize the situation by varying the definition common denominator, namely dollars. The GNP really works to see how the result changes. This approach can establish because market prices can be used to combine and aggregate just how sensitive the actual result is to the definition. apples and oranges, manufactured goods, and services. The first step, then, is to arrive at a suitable definition for There is a loophole in Denison's statement, however. Had "optimum." What are the criteria for such a definition? It he said "universally acceptable" I would have thrown up should be (i) acceptable, (ii) unambiguous, and (iii) opera- my hands, but "generally acceptable" means to me that tional, i.e., it should incorporate a method of calculation. reasonable people might accept an index, perhaps on a tem- One definition often proposed defines optimum as the porary basis, to see how it works, and then through modifica- "highest quality of life for the largest percentage of popula- tion evolve it into a better index. tion." This puts the burden on defining "quality of life," and With these preliminaries out of the way, let me discuss how on devising a yardstick for measuring it. In our society, one might start with the GNP index and by suitable additions where material comforts are important and contribute to and subtractions and other modifications arrive at an index what people perceive of as happiness, a loose definition might that more nearly represents quality of life. be "having as much money as possible left over after taking Before going into details, however, let me state two general care of the basic necessities, and having the necessary time points that are often overlooked. The first is that we are in- and opportunities for spending it in a pleasant way." It terested only in a relative index and not an absolute index. means also having the maximum range of choices for a way of We want to know whether we are better off this year as com- life. This definition, however, might not be acceptable to a pared to last year, or whether we will be better off 5 years society living a monastic kind of life. from now if we take certain actions or if certain things come The definition just given satisfies our criteria reasonably to pass. This means that we can neglect quantities that are well. It tells us how to measure quality of life in terms of constant, or quantities that change only very slowly over the dollars by calculating the potential consumption and as- time period in which we are interested.¶ signing a monetary value to free time. Specifically, then, one The second point is somewhat related. We have to keep in starts by examining the national income accounts, which ag- mind the purpose to which we want to apply the index. It may gregate the output of the nation, to see which items, and to not be possible, and in fact it may be misleading, to look for what extent, they contribute to an index of quality of life a universally applicable index for quality of life.
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