Malaysia Marine Heavy
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BIMB Securities Research 19 October, 2020 A Member of BIMB Holdings Group Share Price RM0.32 (MMHE MK) MALAYSIA MARINE HEAVY ENG. BUY▲ Target Price RM0.42 +31.3% Reducing risk exposure towards cyclical oil projects Price Chart (RM) We think MMHE’s expansion in marine business will reduce its 1.00 risk exposure towards cyclical oil development projects; and we Update Company believe this has been largely overlooked. 0.80 MMHE’s orderbook could be boosted by potential roll-out of 0.60 fabrication jobs, but we remain cautious that it may face further 0.40 delay amidst uncertainties in oil price. We are optimistic that MMHE will return to profitability from 0.20 FY21F onwards driven by structural income growth from new dry Jul-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Feb-20 Sep-20 Dec-19 Aug-20 Nov-19 Mar-20 dock DD3 beginning 1Q21. May-20 MMHE MK KLCI Index We upgrade MMHE to BUY (from HOLD) with unchanged SOP- Share Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m derived TP of RM0.42, implies FY21F P/B of 0.3x. We see upside Absolute (4.5) (17.9) (64.4) catalysts outweighing downside risk at current price levels vs FBM KLCI (17.9) (14.6) (62.8) Marine segment to drive earnings FY21F onwards Stock Data We reiterate our view that MMHE’s marine business will be the key Mkt Cap (RM) 512.0 Free float (%) 18.4 earnings driver moving forward leveraging on new contribution from Issued shares (m) 1,600.00 its DD3 which is expected to begin commercial operation in 1Q21F. 52w H/L (RM) 0.97 / 0.255 Oil & Oil Gas & 3m avg daily volume (m) 1,277,027 Oil and Gas Oil and With DD3, we think MMHE’s fundamental will be stronger as it will be less dependent on cyclical development projects. Major Shareholders (%) MISC 66.5 Potential roll-out of fabrication works Technip 8.5 Upstream recently reported that Petronas may soon open a tender Urusharta Jamaah 6.6 for fabrication works of about 20 minimum facility platforms under FYE Dec (RM m) FY18 FY19 FY20F FY21F FY22F “Design One, Build Many” initiatives. While this could benefit MMHE Turnover 974 1,010 1,248 1,795 2,120 in near term, we remain cautious as there is no guarantee that EBITDA -47 24 56 92 111 Pretax Profit -112 -40 -26 13 36 Petronas will commit for the project amidst uncertainties in oil price. Core Profit -111 -34 -26 13 36 Notwithstanding, we remain sanguine with MMHE as its orderbook Consensus NP -80.2 16.1 34.2 EPS (sen) -6.9 -2.1 -1.6 0.8 2.3 remains strong at RM2.6bn (as at June 2020) which provides revenue PER (x) -4.6 -15.0 -20.0 38.4 14.0 visibility until 2023. Its tenderbook currently stands at RM12.5bn DPS (sen) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 which are made up mainly from foreign projects. D. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 P/B (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Keep earnings forecast unchanged We maintain our FY20-22F earnings forecast. We expect MMHE to Key Ratios (%) record core loss of RM25m in FY20 before turning to profit of ROE -4.6 -1.4 -1.1 0.6 1.5 RM13m/RM37m in FY21/FY22. This is driven by (i) earnings growth EBITDA margin -4.8 2.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 Pretax margin -11.5 -3.9 -2.1 0.7 1.7 from DD3 and (ii) strong orderbook of RM2.6bn and potential new Net margin -11.4 -3.4 -2.1 0.7 1.7 order from Aramco/windfarm project. To recap, we have assumed Source: Bloomberg, BIMB Securities an annual orderbook replenishment of RM600m/RM1bn in Equity Equity Oil & Oil Gas & FY21F/FY22F. Upgrade to TRADING BUY Upgrade MMHE to BUY (from HOLD) with unchanged TP of RM0.42. Azim Faris Ab Rahim, CFA We like the stock due to (i) its market leadership in local offshore [email protected] (603) 2613 1734 development projects backed by Petronas’ stewardship; (ii) sizable orderbook of RM2.6bn; and (iii) strong balance sheet with net cash position of RM432m or RM0.27/share (as at June 2020). PP16795/03/2013(031743) 1 BIMB Securities Research Company update : MMHE MBU to drive earnings FY21F onwards MMHE’s marine business unit (MBU) segment which undertakes marine repair and FPSO conversion projects has consistently been making profits over FY13-17. Recall that 2018 is an exceptionally weak year as it fell into losses due to cost provision made for an FPSO conversion project (Chart 1). Recovery was then hampered in subsequent years by the delay in LNG drydocking works due to uncertainties with regards to the implementation of IMO2020 clean fuel rule. Chart 1: MBU segment result RM m % 600 40 495 464 500 445 431 30 365 400 323 285 289 20 300 253 10 200 106 84 99 75 0 100 41 23 17 40 0 -10 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20F FY21F -100 -20 -62 Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin Source: Rystad Energy, BIMB Securities The recurring income from MBU segment provides MMHE with a cushion against the cyclicality of Heavy Engineering Unit (HEU) segment which relies heavily on oil and gas development projects. This leads to the expansion of MBU segment via the construction of new Dry Dock 3 (DD3) which costs c.RM520m. As at 2Q20, the construction of DD3 reached 94% completion. After slight delay in construction works due to restrained movement order amidst the Covid-19 pandemic, DD3 is poised for commercial operation beginning 1Q20. We expect MMHE to secure more work orders moving forward, especially from third-party clients as DD3 will help to reduce bottlenecks at existing drydocks. Currently, DD1 is reserved for MISC drydocking activities hence this virtually leaves DD2 as the sole dry dock for third party jobs. As such, we expect DD3 to provide structural earnings growth to its recurring income from FY21F onwards. We expect this, coupled with normalisation of the drydocking activities following the IMO2020 rule which already came into effect, to underpin MBU as the main driver of MMHE’s earnings moving forward. The roll-out of ‘Design One, Build Many’ to kickstart local projects We think Petronas may sanction low-cost development projects in near-term via the roll-out of ’Design One, Build Many’ (D1BM) initiatives. D1BM is an integrated approach on design standardisation and volume consolidation which targets to reduce the overall development costs, thereby making marginal fields development viable in a low oil price environment. Upstream, an oil and gas news magazine, in May 2020 reported that Petronas has awarded Aker Solutions a contract to provide front-end engineering and design (FEED) service for D1BM initiatives while the tender for construction jobs may be out for bidding in 4Q20. The tender will involve the construction of 20 minimum facility platforms that are required for marginal field development within next 4-5 years. To recap, based on Petronas Activity Outlook 2020-2022, Petronas expects to build 16-29 lightweight wellhead platform (WHP) weighing less than 1,000 tonnes over 2020-2022. A WHP is typically used to house wellheads and equipment and serve as a conduit for a jack- up drilling rig to perform its production drilling activities. We estimate the total contract value for 20 WHPs under D1BM project to be worth at least c.RM1bn based on average cost of RM50m per unit. For comparison, 2 lightweight WHPs (BEDP-A and BEDP-B) and linking bridge that are under construction for Bekok field are worth c.RM150m. PP16795/03/2013(031743) | Page 2 BIMB Securities Research Company update : MMHE Focus remains on projects abroad While there is scarcity in local projects, MMHE continues its effort to reduce its dependency on Petronas’ jobs by pursuing foreign projects. Assuming MMHE can maintain its EBITDA margin of 4-5%, we estimate that it needs a minimum annual revenue of RM1.2-1.5bn to achieve breakeven in HEU segment. Currently, it has a huge chunk of its tenderbook coming from foreign projects. We estimate that bids for foreign projects currently stand at RM10bn, representing 80% of its tenderbook (Chart 2). It is mainly comprised of Saudi Aramco’s contract release purchase order (CRPO) tender bids for projects offshore Saudi as well as offshore windfarm projects in Taiwan. We also expect MMHE to participate in Shell’s Crux gas field development project as a subcontractor to TechnipFMC. Chart 3: Breakdown of MMHE tenderbook (RM bn) 2.5 10.0 Local projects Foreign projects Source: Rystad Energy, BIMB Securities To re-cap, MMHE has signed with Aramco for a 6+6 years long-term offshore agreement which covers the engineering, procurement, fabrication, transportation and installation (EPCI) of offshore facilities offshore Saudi. Amidst oil market turmoil, Aramco is seen to focus on brownfield and offshore maintenance while delay its large-scale capacity expansion and greenfield developments such as for Zuluf, Marjan and Berry fields. Initially the expansion projects are touted to be worth c.USD18bn which could add incremental production of c.1.2m bpd (Marjan: 300,000 bpd, Berri: 250,000 bpd, Zuluf: 600,000 bpd). According to Upstream, Aramco has been spending between USD1.5-2bn per year of offshore maintenance projects as part of LTA agreement. PP16795/03/2013(031743) | Page 3 BIMB Securities Research Company update : MMHE Values re-emerging, BUY Despite poor sentiment over the stock due to low oil price, we opine that the company’s fundamental remains solid with the upcoming DD3 to further enhance its earnings prospect and financial position.