Reforming Major Interest Rate Benchmarks: 2020 Progress Report
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Interbank Offered Rates (Ibors) and Alternative Reference Rates (Arrs)
VERSION: 24 SEPTEMBER 2020 Interbank Offered Rates (IBORs) and Alternative Reference Rates (ARRs) The following table has been compiled on the basis of publicly available information. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information in the table is accurate as at the date that the table was last revised, no warranty or representation is given as to the information in the table. The information in the table is a summary, is not exhaustive and is subject to change. Key Multiple-rate approach (IBOR + RFR) Moving to RFR only IBOR only Basis on Development of Expected/ Expected fall which forward-looking likely fall- back rate to IBOR is Expected ARR? back rate to the ARR (if 3 Expected being Date from date by the IBOR2 applicable) discontinu continued which which ation date (if Alternative ARR will replaceme for IBOR applicable Reference be nt of IBOR Currency IBOR (if any) )1 Rate published is needed ARS BAIBAR TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC TBC (Argentina) 1 Information in this column is taken from Financial Stability Board “Reforming major interest rate benchmarks” progress reports and other publicly available English language sources. 2 This column sets out current expectations based on publicly available information but in many cases no formal decisions have been taken or announcements made. This column will be revisited and revised following publication of the ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol. References in this column to a rate being “Adjusted” are to such rate with adjustments being made (i) to reflect the fact that the applicable ARR may be an overnight rate while the IBOR rate will be a term rate and (ii) to add a spread. -
LCH Clears First Swaps Referencing SARON
LCH clears first swaps referencing SARON Migration to new Swiss reference rate comes ahead of discontinuation of TOIS on 29 December 2017 SwapClear has cleared circa CHF 30 trillion in Swiss Franc-denominated interest rate derivatives since the service’s inception Basler Kantonalbank, Credit Suisse and Zürcher Kantonalbank among the first members to clear using the new rate 18 October 2017 LCH, a leading global clearing house, today announced that it is now clearing Swiss Franc (CHF) interest rate swaps referencing SARON, the Swiss average overnight rate. The move comes ahead of the migration of CHF reference interest rates from TOIS to SARON, scheduled for 29 December 2017. Basler Kantonalbank, Credit Suisse and Zürcher Kantonalbank were among the first market participants to begin clearing using the rate. SARON is the new rate to be used for CHF overnight indexed swaps (OIS) and has recently been recommended as the alternative to Swiss Franc LIBOR and TOIS*. LCH has cleared approximately CHF 30 trillion in Swiss Franc-denominated interest rate derivatives since SwapClear started clearing the currency in June 2002. Michael Davie, Global Head of Rates, LCH, said: “The Swiss market is in the vanguard of a global move to new risk-free reference rates, attracting special attention given the Swiss Franc’s reserve currency status. LCH is delighted to have worked closely with our members, their clients and the regulators to effect a smooth and timely transition from TOIS to SARON. As well as clearing OTC derivatives referencing SARON, LCH has adopted this new preferred rate for cash flow discounting and investment benchmarking. -
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System John C. Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco December 2016 Working Paper 2016-11 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-11.pdf Suggested citation: Holston, Kathryn, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams. 2016. “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2016-11. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working- papers/wp2016-11.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants∗ Kathryn Holston Thomas Laubach John C. Williams December 15, 2016 Abstract U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest { the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances { have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies { Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. -
Inflation, Income Taxes, and the Rate of Interest: a Theoretical Analysis
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation Volume Author/Editor: Martin Feldstein Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-24085-1 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/feld83-1 Publication Date: 1983 Chapter Title: Inflation, Income Taxes, and the Rate of Interest: A Theoretical Analysis Chapter Author: Martin Feldstein Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11328 Chapter pages in book: (p. 28 - 43) Inflation, Income Taxes, and the Rate of Interest: A Theoretical Analysis Income taxes are a central feature of economic life but not of the growth models that we use to study the long-run effects of monetary and fiscal policies. The taxes in current monetary growth models are lump sum transfers that alter disposable income but do not directly affect factor rewards or the cost of capital. In contrast, the actual personal and corporate income taxes do influence the cost of capital to firms and the net rate of return to savers. The existence of such taxes also in general changes the effect of inflation on the rate of interest and on the process of capital accumulation.1 The current paper presents a neoclassical monetary growth model in which the influence of such taxes can be studied. The model is then used in sections 3.2 and 3.3 to study the effect of inflation on the capital intensity of the economy. James Tobin's (1955, 1965) early result that inflation increases capital intensity appears as a possible special case. -
LIBOR Transition: SOFR, So Good Implications of a New Reference Rate for Your Business • 2021
LIBOR transition: SOFR, so good Implications of a new reference rate for your business • 2021 Contents What is LIBOR? 2 What fallback language is currently in place? 16 Why does LIBOR have to go? 4 How will derivative contracts be impacted? 17 Who is driving the process? 5 How will loans and bonds be impacted? 19 How can LIBOR be replaced? 7 How is Wells Fargo contributing? 21 What should I know about SOFR? 9 Where can I get further information? 22 Why are repo transactions so important? 10 Contacts 22 How can SOFR fill LIBOR’s big shoes? 11 What is LIBOR? A brief history of the London Interbank Offered Rate The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) emerged in How is LIBOR set? the 1980s as the fast-growing and increasingly international financial markets demanded aconsistent rate to serve as • 11 – 16 contributor banks submit rates based on a common reference rate for financial contracts. A Greek theoretical borrowing costs banker is credited with arranging the first transaction to • The top 25% and bottom 25% of submissions are be based on the borrowing rates derived from a “set of thrown out reference banks” in 1969.¹ • Remaining rates are averaged together The adoption of LIBOR spread quickly as many market participants saw the value in a common base rate that could underpin and standardize private transactions. At first, the rate was self-regulated, but in 1986, the British 35 LIBOR rates published at 11:00 a.m. London Time Bankers’ Association (BBA), a trade group representing 5 currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF) with the London banks, stepped in to provide some oversight. -
Replacing the LIBOR with a Transparent and Reliable Index of Interbank Borrowing: Comments on the Wheatley Review of LIBOR Initial Discussion Paper
Replacing the LIBOR with a Transparent and Reliable Index of Interbank Borrowing: Comments on the Wheatley Review of LIBOR Initial Discussion Paper 6 September 2012 * Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz and David S. Evans *Abrantes-Metz is Adjunct Associate Professor at the Stern School of Business, New York University and a Principal of Global Economics Group; Evans is Executive Director of the Jevons Institute for Competition Law and Economics and Visiting Professor at the University College London, Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, and Chairman, Global Economics Group. The authors thank John H. Cochrane, Albert D. Metz, Richard Schmalensee, and Brian Smith for helpful insights. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to affiliated institutions or their clients. 1 I. Summary 1. The Wheatley Review released its Initial Discussion Paper (the “Discussion Paper”) on August 10, 2012 and has sought comments on its preliminary findings and recommendations on how to reform the London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”).1 2. This submission presents an alternative to the LIBOR that would in our view: a. Eliminate or significantly reduce the severe defects in the LIBOR which lead the Discussion Paper to conclude that continuing with the current system is “not a viable option;”2 b. Provide a transparent and reliable measure of interbank lending rates during normal times as well as financial crises; c. Minimize disruptions to the market; and, d. Provide parties relying on the LIBOR with a standard that would maintain continuity with the LIBOR. 3. This alternative, which we call the “Committed” LIBOR (CLIBOR), would: a. -
1- FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC US$15000000000 Euro Medium
SECOND SUPPLEMENT DATED 8 OCTOBER 2019 TO THE BASE PROSPECTUS DATED 16 JULY 2019 FIRST ABU DHABI BANK PJSC (incorporated with limited liability in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates) U.S.$15,000,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note Programme This base prospectus supplement (the "Supplement") is supplemental to, forms part of and must be read and construed in conjunction with, the base prospectus dated 16 July 2019 as supplemented by the first supplement to the base prospectus dated 19 July 2019 (the "Base Prospectus") prepared by First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC (the "Issuer", "FAB" or the "Bank") in connection with the Issuer's Euro Medium Term Note Programme (the "Programme") for the issuance of up to U.S.$15,000,000,000 in aggregate nominal amount of notes (the "Notes"). Terms defined in the Base Prospectus shall, unless the context otherwise requires, have the same meaning when used in this Supplement. This Supplement has been approved by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "U.K. Listing Authority") in its capacity as the United Kingdom competent authority for the purposes of Part VI of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, as amended (the "FSMA"). This Supplement constitutes a supplementary prospectus for the purposes of Section 87G of the FSMA (as that provision stood immediately prior to 21 July 2019) and, together with the Base Prospectus, comprises a base prospectus for the purposes of Directive 2003/71/EC, as amended (which includes the amendments made by Directive 2010/73/EU and includes any relevant implementing measure in a relevant Member State of the European Economic Area) (when used in this Supplement, the "Prospectus Directive"). -
Libor's Long Goodbye
LIBOR’S LONG GOODBYE Readiness for LIBOR transition TRANSACTIONAL POWERHOUSE 1 CASE0155238_Report_Print Ready.indd 1 21/07/2020 12:06:23 Introduction As has been noted in a continuous drumbeat of warnings from major global, regional and local regulatory bodies, LIBOR is expected to go away at the end of 2021, when the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has announced it will withdraw support for the rate. This deadline was first announced This report also includes a matrix written, in each case that mature in a speech by Andrew Bailey, chief showing an assessment of readiness after 2021. The official sector executive of the FCA, in July 2017. for transition by currency and product of regulators and central banks Since more than half of the roughly type. As we’ve noted previously, continues to stress the need to four-and-a-half-year-period that that LIBOR transition is at different develop robust alternative reference speech gave until the deadline has stages of progress in different rates and robust contractual fallbacks now elapsed, it is perhaps fitting to jurisdictions and with respect to in the event that LIBOR were to consider how far markets have come different financial products. cease or become unrepresentative in LIBOR transition, and how much of underlying financial reality, and to further they need to go. LIBOR transition remains a transition to such alternative rates. fundamental issue confronting Despite the uncertainty that exists, the This report assesses the state of financial markets. To date, transition FCA has stated firmly that the end-2021 readiness for transition from LIBOR has been slower than regulators deadline remains in effect, a statement (and other interbank offered rates would like, and considerable it reiterated on 25 March 2020 in (IBORs)) to alternative interest rates uncertainty still exists (and may response to the Covid-19 pandemic. -
2021: a Defining Moment for the Interest Rates Reform City Week 2020 – London
21 September 2020 ESMA80-187-627 2021: A Defining Moment for The Interest Rates Reform City Week 2020 – London Steven Maijoor Chair European Securities and Markets Authority Introduction Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen, It is my great pleasure to participate today in the City Week 2020 forum. The interest rates reform is one of the key challenges that the global financial system is currently facing. Therefore, I would like to thank City & Financial Global and the other institutions involved in the organisation of this forum for inviting me and for including in the agenda a panel discussion on this very important matter. Today, before participating in the panel discussion, I would like to speak about recent and expected developments of the global interest rates reform and the crucial role that the cooperation between public authorities and the financial industry is playing in this process. €STR: the new risk-free rate for the euro area As Chair of a European Authority, please allow me to start with an overview of interest rates transition in the euro area and the challenges that lie ahead of us. ESMA • 201-203 rue de Bercy • CS 80910 • 75589 Paris Cedex 12 • France • Tel. +33 (0) 1 58 36 43 21 • www.esma.europa.eu We are soon approaching the first-year anniversary of the Euro Short-Term Rate, or €STR1, which has been published by the ECB since 2nd October 2019. This rate is arguably the core element of the interest rate reform in the euro area, and I will try to explain why this is the case. -
B. Recent Changes in the Financial Secto R
- 21 - References Calvo, Gullermo A.,1983, “Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12(3), 383–398. Gali, Jordi, and Mark Gertler, 1999, “Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44(2), 195–222. Kara, Amit, and Edward Nelson, 2004, “The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the U.K.,” CEPR Discussion Papers No. 3783. Roberts, John M.,1995, “New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 27(4), 975–984. Walsh, Carl E., 2003, Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition, Cambridge, The MIT Press. - 22 - 1 III. FINANCIAL SECTOR STRENGTHS AND VULNERABILITIES—AN UPDATE A. Introduction 1. This chapter reports on strengths and vulnerabilities that may have developed in the financial system since the time of the Latvia Financial System Stability Assessment (IMF Country Report No. 02/67), and discusses measures available to the authorities for further strengthening of the system. The FSSA found that the banking system was well capitalized, profitable and liquid. It was “fairly resilient” to interest rate increases, rapid credit expansion and possible withdrawal of nonresident deposits. The FSSA recommended continued vigilance by banks and the Financial and Capital Markets Commission (FCMC) to ensure that new vulnerabilities did not develop in these areas. Nonbank financial institutions were judged not large enough to be a source of systemic risk. Supervision and regulation were judged to be robust. 2. The present assessment is based mainly on an analysis of financial soundness indicators, including macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, and on stress tests of the financial system. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
Notice of Listing of Products by Icap Sef (Us) Llc for Trading by Certification 1
NOTICE OF LISTING OF PRODUCTS BY ICAP SEF (US) LLC FOR TRADING BY CERTIFICATION 1. This submission is made pursuant to CFTC Reg. 40.2 by ICAP SEF (US) LLC (the “SEF”). 2. The products certified by this submission are the following: Fixed for Floating Interest Rate Swaps in CNY (the “Contract”). Renminbi (“RMB”) is the official currency of the Peoples Republic of China (“PRC”) and trades under the currency symbol CNY when traded in the PRC and trades under the currency symbol CNH when traded in off-shore markets. 3. Attached as Attachment A is a copy of the Contract’s rules. The SEF is listing the Contracts by virtue of updating the terms and conditions of the Fixed for Floating Interest Rate Swaps submitted to the Commission for self-certification pursuant to Commission Regulation 40.2 on September 29, 2013. A copy of the Contract’s rules marked to show changes from the version previously submitted is attached as Attachment B. 4. The SEF intends to make this submission of the certification of the Contract effective on the day following submission pursuant to CFTC Reg. 40.2(a)(2). 5. Attached as Attachment C is a certification from the SEF that the Contract complies with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulations, and that the SEF has posted a notice of pending product certification and a copy of this submission on its website concurrent with the filing of this submission with the Commission. 6. As required by Commission Regulation 40.2(a), the following concise explanation and analysis demonstrates that the Contract complies with the core principles of the Commodity Exchange Act for swap execution facilities, and in particular Core Principle 3, which provides that a swap execution facility shall permit trading only in swaps that are not readily susceptible to manipulation, in accordance with the applicable guidelines in Appendix B to Part 37 and Appendix C to Part 38 of the Commission’s Regulations for contracts settled by cash settlement and options thereon.