Review of Derby Traffic Flows and Effects of A38 Junctions Improvements Author: K Timmis Rev: A Date: December 2019 1 Contents Introduction 3 Data 3 Analysis 4 Discussion 5 Conclusion 10 Appendix A - Daily Average Traffic Flow by Direction 11 Appendix B - Analysis 12 2 Introduction This report reviews the traffic flow on and across the A38 around Derby and investigates the potential effect that the planned construction work may have on traffic in and around Derby. Highways England plan major improvements to the road junctions at; Little Eaton, Markeaton and Kingsway, with work commencing in March 2021 and being completed by September 2024. During this period the construction work on the three islands will restrict traffic capacity, with potentially single lane working and speed restrictions. Data The traffic flow data has been obtained from the Department for Transport Road Traffic Statistics website. Vehicle counts are collated for strategic sites on most major roads that are summarised on the website, the data includes; average annual daily flow, average annual daily flow by direction and raw data counts. The raw data provides a detailed breakdown for different categories of vehicles for each hour during the day, between the hours of 07.00 and 18.00. Many of the sites are subject to annual count, with some having automated counter systems, while others are estimated with periodic manual counts. Further information about the road traffic statistics can be found at the following; https:// roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/about. The data is counted at different dates throughout the year which introduces inconsistencies into any use of the data. Traffic flow data has been obtained from the website for traffic flowing along the A38 from south of the Ripley junction to north of the junction with the A50 near Findern and for every major road that joins the A38 between those two points. The traffic flow data has been summarised in Appendix A, daily average traffic flow by direction. The traffic flow on the A38 around Derby varies between junctions and counts from three locations; at Abbey Hill, Mickleover and Heatherton Village have been recorded and summarised in Table 1, Traffic Flow along A38 around Derby. This illustrates how traffic flow varies along the A38, with a Location Direction Traffic Flow A38 - Ripley North 25666 South 25600 A38 - Abbey Hill North 25350 South 26003 A38 - Mickleover North 33345 South 31442 A38 - Heatherton Village North 26435 South 22450 A38 - Findern north 31286 South 29675 Table 1 Traffic Flow along A38 around Derby 3 significant flows of traffic leaving and joining at junctions such as the A516 to Etwall, between the Mickleover and Heatherton Village counting locations. Analysis The A38 between Ripley and the A50 junction has been considered as a system with vehicles entering and leaving from each end and at each major road junctions between the defined end points. The average traffic flow, by direction, for each entry point has been collated from the 2018 counts, as shown in Appendix A. This data has been analysed to evaluate the probability of traffic movements between all of the junctions, this then allows the traffic flows between each of the junction to be predicted, for explanation see Appendix B. The data shows there are about 170,000 vehicle movements along or across the A38 on average each day. Results of the analysis are summarised in Table 2, Predicted Traffic Routes on A38 Predicted Vehicle Flows. There is a moderate flow of Vehicle Flow vehicles travelling through on the A38 but this is not the majority of traffic using the Through traffic 12754 road. A similar level of traffic is joining the Traffic - west of city to / from 11985 A38 from the west of the city to travel north south and north. However, the volumes of traffic coming from the city to travel north Traffic - west of city to / from 12203 south and particularly south is significantly greater, about 22,000 travelling north and Traffic - city to / from north 21978 45,000 south. Traffic - city to / from south 44563 About 24,000 vehicles cross the A38 Traffic - crossing A38 direct 2448 indirectly, travelling between junctions before continuing their journeys either west Traffic - crossing A38 indirect 23480 or into Derby. Only a relatively small Traffic - from city along A38 & 18671 number of vehicle cross the A38 directly, return to city either in or out of the city. A large number of journey start from within the city, east of Traffic - from west along A38 4341 & return west the A38, to travel around the A38 to then return into the city, about 19,000 vehicles. A simplistic assessment of the traffic flows along Table 2 Predicted Vehicle Flows or across the A38 around Derby, using the data in Appendix A, this shows there are approximately 155,000 vehicles entering or leaving Derby from the A38 while there are approximately 170,000 vehicle travelling up or down the A38 or joining or leaving from the countryside. This is a general view of the traffic flows and indicates there are large volumes of traffic travelling in and out of the city. The traffic flow along the A38 varies around Derby, see Table 1, which indicates that traffic is entering and leaving the A38 at various junctions. The analysis may not be detailed but it indicates the sorts of flows that occur daily. Although the average daily flows indicate general volumes of traffic only detailed hourly flows will give an indication of whether congestion can be expected on any of the routes. 4 2400 North South 2100 1800 Vehicles /hr Vehicles 1500 1200 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Time Fig. 1 Traffic Flow - Queensway Discussion The average traffic flow data is assumed to be a realistic representation of traffic at each location, there is no indication of whether there have been holdups or other incidents that could affect the local traffic volumes. Traffic flows are not counted every year so intermediate years are estimated, which can cause irregularities in the year on year counts. A number of the daily average traffic flow data sets used in this analysis have been estimated but where the raw data has been referenced, peak flow figures, these are all manually counted. The data analysis has used the daily average vehicle counts by direction for the basis of the predicted traffic flows on or across the A38 around Derby. These predicted flows can only be used as a guide since the original data is typical average flows during the day, making no adjustment for the day of the week or other traffic related issue in the proximity of the count location. However, the average daily flows only provides an indication of vehicle travelling throughout the day, to appreciate the peak flows the raw data is used to give an indication of what can be experienced throughout the day with the hourly counts. Typically there will be peaks in the morning and afternoon traffic flows as indicated in Figure 1, Traffic Flows - Queensway, the section of A38 between Markeaton island and Duffield Road, where the peaks are clearly seen in the morning and afternoon. A difference can be seen in the direction of flow, more traffic flowing north in the morning while during the afternoon the greater flow is south bound. Once the road works commence there will be extensive periods when the roadway is reduced to a single carriageway and its capacity will be significantly affected. To evaluate the traffic flows on a single lane the recommended two second gap between vehicles travelling at 40 mph (65 kph) gave a flow of 1600 vehicles / hour. As traffic never flows smoothly it was considered that flow rate would probably be about 1400 vehicles / hour, which coincides with maximum traffic flows indicated in through roadworks in ‘Safety at 5 Street Works and Road Works’ 2013. Figure 2 illustrates the traffic flows along the Abbey Hill section of the A38 and the 1400 vehicle single lane traffic flows has been 2400 North South 2100 1800 Vehicle / hr Vehicle 1500 1400 1200 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Time Fig. 2. Traffic Flow - Abbey Hill 4000 North South 3300 2600 Vehicle / hr Vehicle 1900 1400 1200 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Time Fig. 3 Traffic Flow - Mickleover superimposed. The chart indicates that the traffic flows exceed the 1400 vehicles / hour 6 flow during most of the working day, thus any single lane working will inevitably cause substantial congestion. Similarly, Fig. 3 shows the traffic flows along the A38 at Mickleover, south of the Kingsway junction, where the the 1400 vehicles / hour are exceeded throughout the day. Clearly, the planned roadworks on the A38 will cause considerable delays to journeys. A consequence of traffic congestion, increased journey time, additional costs and inconvenience, can influence peoples behaviour, drivers may change their route or time they travel to avoid the worst of the congestion. Where there is not adequate capacity on alternative routes then people may make significant changes to their routines; choose alternative modes of travel, alternative destinations, change the frequency of their journey, making more efficient use of journeys made, car sharing or no longer making journeys, hence, potentially reducing demand1. The immediate reaction to the congestion will be to find alternative routes. This will inevitably mean additional traffic finding its way onto the cities streets. The following considers the possible routes that drivers may decide to take: Rykneld Road; originally the main route to Derby from Birmingham, a Roman road known as Ryknild Street.