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Unfolding OLED: Pathways to a US$46Bn Market

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Unfolding OLED: Pathways to a US$46Bn Market EQUITY RESEARCH | July 14, 2017 Unfolding OLED Giuni Lee Daiki Takayama +82(2)3788-1177 +81(3)6437-9870 Pathways to a US$46bn market [email protected] [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) Goldman Sachs Japan Imagine a tablet that can be folded to the size of your L.L.C., Seoul Branch Co., Ltd. phone. That technology is here. Organic light emitting diodes don’t need a backlight, so can be manufactured into Simona Jankowski, Brian Lee, CFA thinner, more flexible displays than LCDs. The demand CFA (917) 343-3110 from foldable devices, as well as the demand from Apple (415) 249-7437 [email protected] and Samsung for the displays on their next generation [email protected] Goldman Sachs & phones, will make OLED one of the fastest growing Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Co. LLC markets in the global tech hardware sector. By 2020, we Toshiya Hari Satoru Ogawa expect sales to triple to US$46bn (32% CAGR) vs. US$15bn (646) 446-1759 +81(3)6437-4061 in 2016. We believe Samsung’s market-leading position in [email protected] [email protected] mobile OLED is sustainable and the threat from Chinese Goldman Sachs & Goldman Sachs OLED makers is at least 3-4 years away. Co. LLC Japan Co., Ltd. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. July 14, 2017 Global: Technology: Hardware Table of contents Portfolio Manager’s Summary: Smart screens for smart devices 4 OLED supply/demand tight globally at least until 2019 10 Why now? 11 iPhone a key catalyst for OLED take-off starting in 2017 12 Where’s the market headed? 17 OLED market to triple to US$46bn by 2020 18 What’s next for technology? 23 Foldable displays – the main driver post-2020 24 What are the risks? 31 Risks to our OLED market forecast 32 Who’s best placed to compete? 33 Mobile OLED competitive landscape – will SEC’s success continue? 34 Who’s investing? 45 Global OLED capex – high level of spending expected through 2020 46 Who will be affected? 47 Key stock implications in the global technology sector 48 Appendix 57 Details of our OLED supply and demand model 58 OLED – the display of the future 71 Disclosure Appendix 74 Prices in this report are as of the July 11, 2017 close unless otherwise specified. Unfolding OLED The OLED market is on the cusp of inflection and we see a wide range of implications from this opportunity. See below for related reports: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) : Less cyclical, more shareholder friendly; resume with Buy (add to CL) South Korea: Technology: Hardware: Resuming 7 stocks; Buy Samsung Electronics (CL)/SK Hynix/SEMCO Global: Technology: Semiconductors – Memory: DRAM & NAND update: introducing 2018 supply/demand estimates Global Technology Hardware (Contributing analysts) Asia US Giuni Lee Daiki Takayama Simona Jankowski, CFA Toshiya Hari +82(2)3788-1177 +81(3)6437-9870 +1 (415) 249-7437 +1 (646) 446-1759 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Wei Chen Satoru Ogawa Mark Delaney, CFA Doug Clark, CFA +886(2)2730-4185 +81(3)6437-4061 +1 (212) 357-0535 +1 (415) 249-7453 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Donald Lu, Ph.D Brian Lee, CFA Masaru Sugiyama +86(10)6627-3123 +1 (917) 343-3110 +81(3)6437-4691 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Nozomi Handa Hideaki Mitani +81(3)6437-9886 +81(3)6437-9836 [email protected] [email protected] Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 July 14, 2017 2017 14, July Research Investment Global Sachs Goldman East Asia is where all the major OLED fabs are currently located Location of current/projected OLED fabs in East Asia LG Display Samsung (Paju, Gumi) Electronics JDI (Mobara) (Asan) JDI (Hakusan) Visionox (Gu’an) Sharp (Sakai) BOE (Ordos) Foxconn (Zhengzhou) Current location of the OLED production Visionox (Kunshan) AUO (Kunshan) sites. BOE (Hefei) BOE (Mianyang) CSOT (Wuhan) Tianma (Shanghai) EverDisplay (Shanghai) Potential OLED production sites by 2020. BOE (Chengdu) Tianma (Wuhan) Truly (Huizhou) Royole (Shenzhen) MOBILE OLED MARKET ECOSYSTEM Korea China JP TW BOE (4%) Tianma (3%) JDI Foxconn Samsung Electronics LG Visionox (2%) (2%) (2%) (70% area shipment share in 2020E) Display (10%) EverDisplay (2%) Sharp AUO SUPPLY CSOT (1%) (2%) (1%) Truly (1%) Global: Technology: Hardware Technology: Global: SMARTPHONES China smartphones 22% Samsung (34% of TAM in 2020E) Apple – 39%Apple 39% (Oppo, Vivo, Gionee, etc.) 3 TABLET PC NOTEBOOK/PC AND MONITOR DEMAND VR/AR Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. July 14, 2017 Global: Technology: Hardware Portfolio Manager’s Summary: Smart screens for smart devices OLED: Our 5 key conclusions on the display of the future With applications extending from smartphones and TVs to automotive dashboards and tail lights, Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs) are solid-state emissive displays that generate their own light rather than depending on an external source (i.e., a backlight)1. Through the deep dive analysis presented in this report, we derive 5 key conclusions on how the market for this technology is set to evolve: Global OLED supply/demand will be tight at least until 2019; The OLED market will triple into a US$46bn market by 2020. Expanding at a 32% CAGR, OLEDs will be one of the fastest growing and largest markets in the global technology hardware sector; Apple/China smartphones will drive market growth, with OLEDs replacing existing Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) panels over the next couple of years. Foldable OLED displays also have the potential to create significant growth opportunities and new applications from around 2020; It will take at least 3-4 years before Chinese OLED makers have a chance of increasing their industry presence. Current OLED leader Samsung should therefore sustain its market-leading position over this period. Global OLED capex will remain at a high level through 2020. Why now? OLED iPhone to lead the market take-off in 2017 While the OLED market has grown in tandem with expansion of Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) smartphones over the past 7-8 years, we believe Apple will also start to use OLED screens in one of its iPhone models this year. Due to the high OLED ASP for the OLED iPhone (we expect the iPhone to use high-end OLEDs) we anticipate a significant expansion in the smartphone OLED total addressable market (TAM). On the back of this adoption, we estimate that the OLED panel market this year will grow by 64% yoy to reach ~US$25bn. Exhibit 1: OLED iPhone to lead the market take-off in 2017 Global OLED industry revenue forecast (U$bn) Lower than Apple likely to (% yoy) 50 expected sales of start using OLED 200% 45 GS5 40 150% 35 30 100% 25 20 50% 15 10 0% 5 0 ‐50% OLED revenue Sequential change (RHS) Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. 1 Throughout this report, when mentioning OLED we refer to the mainstream active matrix (AM) OLED, which comprises almost the entire OLED market at present. See Appendix for a primer on OLED technology. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 July 14, 2017 Global: Technology: Hardware Why does OLED matter?: One of the fastest-growing and largest markets in global tech hardware Given the muted growth expected in the traditional tech hardware space, OLED is one of the only tech sub-sectors in which we expect fast growth over the next several years. We expect the US$$15bn market in 2016 to triple in size to US$46bn by 2020 (32% CAGR). To put things in context, we forecast that by 2020 the OLED panel market will be larger than the combined VR/AR hardware and software markets in 2020 (GSe: US$38bn) and the DRAM market in 2016 (US$41bn). Exhibit 2: OLED – one of the fastest growing tech Exhibit 3: OLED has room to grow in many applications hardware subsectors OLED penetration in major applications (2016) Major tech hardware sub-sector revenue CAGR (2016-2020E) 80% 80% 68% 70% 69.1% 70% 60% 60% 50% 40% 32% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 25.1% 10% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 20% 10% 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0% Smartwatch Smartphone Tablet PC TV Monitor Laptop Note: Smartphone and handset based on 2016-2019E CAGR Source: IHS, Gartner, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: IHS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The growth path: Apple/China smartphones, then foldable displays The main catalyst driving this growth during our forecast period is higher smartphone OLED penetration mainly driven by Apple and Chinese smartphone makers. Beyond 2020, an additional catalyst could be the emergence of foldable displays. Samsung targets commercialization of foldable displays in 2018 and mass production by 2019. We expect foldable displays will be a game changer in terms of smartphone and tablet/PC convergence and will enhance new applications including virtual/augmented reality (VR/AR).
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