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A View from Brussels Secret NATO Reports About the East European Transition, 1988–1991

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A View from Brussels Secret NATO Reports About the East European Transition, 1988–1991 “It is not easy to predict the future course of events, which will depend to a large extent on the overall political situation in the USSR” is the cautious evaluation of the A VIEW FROM BRUSSELS confidential expert report for the North Atlantic Council in October 1989. In 1988‒1991, the relationship was fundamentally transformed between the Western alliance Secret NATO Reports about system led by the United States and the East European socialist bloc dominated by the Soviet Union. The military, the East European Transition, political, cultural, and ideological confrontation – with the weakening of Moscow and the collapse of its empire – was 1988–1991 replaced during a few months by a new type of cooperation of the parties separated previously by the Iron Curtain. The Edited by eight reports from the NATO Archives (formerly classified confidential), published in the present volume for the first Gusztáv D. Kecskés time in English, illuminate the East European events of these four eventful years from the perspective of expert advisors of the alliance. How were these dramatic changes in Eastern Europe perceived and interpreted in Brussels? ecret NATO Reports about the East European Transition, 1988–1991 Transition, East Reports European the about NATO ecret S • A VIEW FROM BRUSSELS VIEW A A VIEW FROM BRUSSELS SECRET NATO REPORTS abOUT THE EaST EUROPEan TRanSITION, 1988–1991 A VIEW FROM BRUSSELS Secret NATO Reports about the East European Transition, 1988–1991 Edited, compiled, and introductory study by Gusztáv D. Kecskés Budapest, 2019 First (Hungarian) edition: Brüsszelből tekintve. Titkos NATO-jelentések az átalakuló Kelet-Európáról, 1988–1991. Edited, documents translated from French and English, and introduction by Gusztáv D. Kecskés Budapest, MTA BTK–RETÖRKI, 2019. This publication is sponsored by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division. The introduction, footnotes, and appendix were translated by Gábor Demeter. The summary was translated by Miklós Szalai. The English translation was supervised by James P. Niessen. ISBN 978-963-416-180-6 Published by: Cold War History Research Center (Corvinus University of Budapest – Centre for Social Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) and Research Centre for the Humanities, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of History, Hungary. Prepress preparation: Institute of History, RCH HAS Research Assistance Team; Leader: Éva Kovács Page layout: Andrea Hudecz Cover design: Imre Horváth Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................... 7 Foreword of the Editor ................................................. 9 Introduction: The NATO and Transforming Eastern Europe, 1988–1991 ... 11 NATO: Its Principles, Structure, and Operation in 1989 .............. 11 Transformation and Continuity: The Activities and Situation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in 1988–1991 ......... 13 The Administrative Framework of Expertise on Eastern Europe, 1951–1991 ................................................... 25 Documents ............................................................ 37 No. 1: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(88)14 (April 27, 1988) ................................... 39 No. 2: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(88)47 (November 10, 1988) .............................. 61 No. 3: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(89)13 (May 3, 1989) ..................................... 79 No. 4.: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(89)57 (November 8, 1989) ............................... 99 No. 5: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(90)11 (May 8, 1990) .....................................123 No. 6: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(90)66 (November 20, 1990). 151 No. 7: The Situation in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, C-M(91)18 (April 24, 1991) ...................................175 No. 8: The Situation in the Soviet Union and the other Central and Eastern European countries, C-M(91)93 (November 22, 1991) ..........................................201 Appendix ..............................................................211 Biographical notes .................................................213 List of Abbreviations ...............................................229 Figures ............................................................233 TABLE OF CONTENTS Bibliography used for the Footnotes and the Appendix ................237 Summary ..........................................................240 Index of Names ....................................................242 Index of Geographical Names .......................................247 6 Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to those who contributed to the publication of this volume in English: I am grateful to Csaba Békés, Director of the Cold War History Research Center (Budapest) for supporting the project and reading the manuscript; to Norbert Kroó, Andrea Molnár and Attila Pók for their contribution to the application of the European Movement Hungary; to Emese D. Kecskés and Vajk Sarodi for typing and editing the manuscript, and to Gábor Demeter for the workmanlike translation and to James P. Niessen for attentive proofreading, checking, and correcting. With regard the first edition of the book (in Hungarian) I am deeply grateful to Zoltán Bíró, Director General of the Research Institute and Archives for the History of Regime Change (RETÖRKI) and to Péter Horváth, Deputy Director General, for their willingness to support my proposal for the publication of this volume. I am also thankful to the leadership of my home institute, the HAS RCH, Institute of History, for securing technical assistance and optimal working conditions. I would like to thank historians of my home institute for their advice in sup- port of my work: László Bíró, Gábor Demeter, Árpád Hornyák, Miklós Mitrovits, Attila Seres, Andreas Schmidt-Schweizer, Zoltán Sz. Bíró. I also appreciate the mag- nanimous and useful help of Csaba Békés, Géza Jeszenszky, Attila Kovács, Tamás Magyarics and Penka Peykovska, Imre Szilágyi, and László Valki. The friendly support of József Beke, former Director of the Department of Security, Telecommunication, and Documentation at the Ministry of Foreign Af- fairs and Trade, József Sztáray, former head of the NATO delegation of Hungary, and Nikolett Okosi, former staff member of the delegation, was decisive in obtain- ing the copies of the documents published here. The cooperation of Sylvie Prudon, associate of the Archives of French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the positive atti- tude of staff of the NATO Archives also contributed to my research. I am grateful for the Scholarship of the French Community of Belgium and the Hungarian Academy of Sciences that provided the financial basis for my re- search and my stay while abroad, and I am also thankful to NATO for providing a Publication Grant. Finally I should like to thank my wife and children who tolerated my rarely emerging from my study while working on this book. Gusztáv D. Kecskés 7 Foreword of the Editor The relationship between the western alliance system led by the US and the East European socialist bloc dominated by the Soviet Union fundamentally changed in 1988–1991. With the weakening of Moscow and the subsequent, sudden collapse of its empire, the political, cultural, military, and ideological confrontation called the Cold War was replaced within months by a new type of cooperation between the two parts of Europe previously divided by the Iron Curtain. The eight reports from the NATO Archives, formerly classified confidential, that are published in English for the first time in the present volume present the events of these stirring four years from the perspective of western experts meeting together in Brussels: how they perceived and interpreted the events in this transforming region. The term Eastern Europe applied in the title is a political one, and refers to the allies of the Soviet Union, the USSR itself, and Yugoslavia and Albania. In this way we invoke the original term commonly used in these documents (Eastern Europe, in French: Europe orientale) without taking sides in the terminological debate about the proper name for the region. In the Introduction we seek to illuminate the nature of relations between NATO and Eastern Europe as they evolved in the period when the documents were written. We also highlight the operating principles and structural basis of NATO and analyze the far reaching transformation of the alliance. Finally, we examine the circumstances under which these reports were born, touching also on the work of NATO experts on Eastern Europe as early as the 1950s. The Documents section publishes these reports in chronological order in their original (English) language. The names and geographical names appear in their original form as written in the reports. In the Biographical Notes and Index of Names both the officialE nglish version and the version used in the documents are identified, the latter in brackets. We strove for consistency in the use of abbrevia- tions for organizations; in most cases the English and the native forms are given. In the footnotes we provided additional information for the better understanding of events discussed in the documents. In case of recurring problems the footnotes al- ways refer back to the first detailed mention of the problem. The original footnotes of the documents are in brackets. 9 SECRET NATO REPORTS ABOUT THE EAST EUROPEAN TRANSITION,
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