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Abrupt Climate Change and Storm Surge Impacts in Coastal Louisiana in 2050 University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses 12-19-2008 Abrupt Climate Change and Storm Surge Impacts in Coastal Louisiana in 2050 Jay Ratcliff University of New Orleans Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Recommended Citation Ratcliff, Jay, "Abrupt Climate Change and Storm Surge Impacts in Coastal Louisiana in 2050" (2008). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 879. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/879 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Abrupt Climate Change and Storm Surge Impacts in Coastal Louisiana in 2050 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In Engineering and Applied Science By Jay Ratcliff B.S. Tulane University, 1979 M.E. University of New Orleans, 1994 December 2008 To my mother ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My storm surge modeling team members, especially Dr. Joannes Westerink, provided me constant guidance and assistance in working with large finite element meshes and in understanding and executing the ADCIRC storm surge model. Vann Stutts and Dr. Don Resio first introduced me to the vast arena of statistical modeling and risk analyses. Andy Cox and Vince Cardone of Ocean Weather, Inc for use of their PBL wind model. I would also like to acknowledge my committee members help and support including Dr. George Ioup, Dr. Ioannis Georgiou, D. Martin Guillot, Dr. Donald Barbe, Dr. Bhaskar Kura, Dr. Joannes Westerink, and Dr. Alex McCorquodale. Dr. Alex McCorquodale has taught me over the years and allowed me to complete this research under his guidance. I will also be forever grateful to Dr. Alim Hannoura who has been and will always be my teacher, mentor, and friend. iii Table Of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................vi List of Tables ...........................................................................................................viii List of Abbreviations..................................................................................................ix Abstract.......................................................................................................................x Chapter 1 Introduction.................................................................................................1 1.1 Background........................................................................................................1 1.2 IPET ..................................................................................................................2 1.3 Global Climate Change......................................................................................4 1.4 Abrupt Climate Change......................................................................................9 1.5 Scope and Objectives of Research....................................................................13 1.5.1 2050 Storm Surge Simulations. .....................................................................13 1.5.2 Abrupt Climate Change.................................................................................14 1.5.3 Frequency Analyses. .....................................................................................16 Chapter 2 Storm Surge Models Literature Review .....................................................18 2.1 Historic Storm Surge Models ...........................................................................18 2.2 ADCIRC..........................................................................................................21 2.2.1 Model Formulation .......................................................................................25 2.2.2 ADCIRC Louisiana mesh validation .............................................................28 2.2.3 ADCIRC Numerical Implementation ............................................................29 2.2.4 ADCIRC Input and Forcing Functions ..........................................................32 Chapter 3 Global Climate Change..............................................................................33 3.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................33 3.2 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1 st through 3 rd Assessments .....37 3.3 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4 th Assessment Report (AR4) ..43 iv 3.4 Abrupt Climate Change....................................................................................50 Chapter 4 2050 Storm Surge Simulations with Present Climate .................................54 4.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................54 4.2 Analyses ..........................................................................................................56 4.3 Results.............................................................................................................59 Chapter 5 Abrupt Climate Change on Simulated Surges ............................................69 5.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................69 5.2 Analyses ..........................................................................................................72 5.3 Results.............................................................................................................76 Chapter 6 Frequency Analyses...................................................................................89 6.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................89 6.2 Review of Existing Work.................................................................................90 6.3 Surge Frequency Analyses .............................................................................101 Chapter 7 Discussion...............................................................................................110 7.1 Effect of Relative Sea Level Rise and Degradation of Coast on Surge Impacts ............................................................................................................................110 7.2 Effect of Abrupt Climate Change on Coast and Surge Impacts.......................114 7.3 Hurricane Frequencies and Surge Impacts in 2050 .........................................115 7.4 Uncertainties..................................................................................................116 7.4 Recommendations..........................................................................................119 Chapter 8 Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................123 References...............................................................................................................126 Vita .........................................................................................................................140 v List of Figures Figure 1 SST versus Power Dissipation Index from (Emanuel, 2005) ..............................7 Figure 2 Power dissipation index landfalling storms from Landsea (2005).......................9 Figure 3 ADCIRC Finite Element Mesh used for Louisiana surge modeling..................23 Figure 4 ADCIRC Mesh Internal Boundaries for Coastal Louisiana ..............................24 Figure 5 ADCIRC Mesh Detail Lake Pontchartrain .......................................................24 Figure 6 Yearly Global Average Surface Temperatures (IPCC, 2007) ...........................39 Figure 7 Global Average Temperature Series from (IPCC, 2007) ..................................41 Figure 8 Spatial Model Resolutions from (IPCC, 2007).................................................42 Figure 9 Atmospheric concentrations of green house gases 10,000 years to present (IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.1).......................................................................................................46 Figure 10 Observed changes in global temperatue, sea level, and snow cover................47 Figure 11 Projected average global surface temperatures (IPCC FAR, Figure SPM.5)...49 Figure 12 Difference Between 2050 topography and ADCIRC mesh topography of present-day topography with 2007 levee configuration ..................................................56 Figure 13 Relationship Observed MPI vs. Theoretical ...................................................57 Figure 14 cyclone intensity as a function of the SST under the eye (Schade, 2000)........58 Figure 15 Storms 191 through 195 tracks ......................................................................59 Figure 16 2007 Topography Storm 192 Surge Peaks (USACE, LACPR 2007 Tech Report)..........................................................................................................................60
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