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Geopolitical Report Vol.1/2019 Belt and Road Initiative: : Security ISSN 2532-845X ASRIE Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa GEOPOLITICAL REPORT Volume 1/2019 BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE SECURITY ISSUES, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND GEOPOLITICS ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Geopolitical Report Belt and Road Initiative: Security Issues, Investment Opportunities and Geopolitics Volume I Year 2019 A publication of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa Online ISSN: 2532-845X Pag. 2 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Geopolitical Report A publication of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa (ASRIE) The first volume of Geopolitical Report titled Belt and Road Initiative: Security Issues, Investment Opportu- nities and Geopolitics is dedicated to the analysis of the Chinese strategy to interconnect Europe and Asia with the purpose of highlighting current geopolitical problems and challenges, possible investment opportunities and political and economic trends. Website: www.asrie.org Email: [email protected] Registered at the Italian Revenue Agency, Fiscal Code 97759360585 Online ISSN: 2532-845X Date: October 2018 Author(s): Ambrish Daka, Emaneul Pietrobon, Chen Xiaoding, Daniele Garofalo, Fabio Tiburzi, Mattia Bal- doni, Yulia Prokopenko, Sagira Tulesheva Editor: Giuliano Bifolchi Scope The aim of the Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Africa (ASRIE) is to promote international relations and business among Italy and foreign countries and further the study of and teaching on the geopolitical, economic, cultural and social characteristics of processes and developments in different areas of the world. The Association is the result of shared experience and knowledge by geopolitical analysts, journalists, businessmen willing to promote the intercultural exchange between Italy and countries in both the Eurasian Region and Africa, creating a link among the world of Business, Academy and Research. The association’s publication, Geopolitical Report, aims at investigating the current geopolitical and sociocul- tural events and trends which are shaping the world of international relations, business and security creating a debate by allowing scholars and professional experts to share their views, perspectives, work results, reports and research findings. One can submit manuscripts, analytical reports, critical responses, short articles, com- mentaries, book reviews to [email protected]. Information about the association’s goals, activities, projects and publications which can be freely downloaded can be found on the website www.asrie.org. Copyright © 2018 ASRIE All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed “Attention: Permissions Coordinator,” at [email protected]. Pag. 3 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Introduction by Giuliano Bifolchi1 The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also well-known as the New Silk Road, in- terests the Eurasian continent with the purpose of improving commercial trade and hu- man interconnection. Since China launched its strategy in 2013 Beijing has invested a huge amount of financial resources to improve the economy, security and stability of those countries interested by the BRI. Therefore, the People’s Republic of China has become one of the main investors in the infrastructural development projects in Europe, Asia and Africa aiming at creating a secure economic and political environment. The Association of Studies, Research and Internationalization in Eurasia and Af- rica (ASRIE) decided to analyse the BRI and its security issues, investment opportuni- ties and geopolitical implications because we believe that Beijing’s strategy can heav- ily impact the Eurasian dynamics changing current political alliance and balances and opening new markets to foreign investors. Since 2013 the Italian government has shown its interests in the BRI because thanks to the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Italy can use its geographical position in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea to play a decisive role in the Mediterranean maritime and trade market. The Italian goal is to attract Chinese and foreign invest- ments in the maritime and port sectors to transform the Bel Paese in a logistic and commercial hub which will connect Europe, Asia and Africa and boost the European – Chinese trade. The BRI might have a significant positive impact on the Italian economy but can change the geopolitical balances in Europe and the Mediterranean area. For this reason, 1 Giuliano Bifolchi. Director of ASRIE OSINT Unit, he has worked for several years as a journalist and Open Source Intelligence analyst specialised in the field of international relations, terrorism and security in the Middle East and the post-Soviet space. He holds a master’s degree in Peacebuilding Management and International Relations from Pontifical University San Bonaventura and a B.A. and M.A.in History from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. Currently, he is a PhD candidate at the University of Rome Tor Vergata with particular interests in geopolitics, history of Islamic countries, strategic communication, conflict management and ethnic minorities. E-mail: [email protected] Pag. 4 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X the European Union and the United States look suspiciously the Chinese strategy la- belling the New Silk Road as Beijing’s strategy to control the entire Eurasian area and influence the international arena. In fact, since the Modern era, Eurasia has been the theatre of confrontation between great empires before and superpowers later to control this region and ‘decide the destiny of the world’. Political thinkers, scholars, geogra- phers and politicians such as Sir Halford John Mackinder in his Heartland theory, Nicholas Spykman in his Rimland theory and Zbigniew Brzezinski highlighted the cen- trality of Eurasia in the field of geopolitics and military strategy. In the 19th century, the Tsarist and the British Empires clashed in a political and diplomatic confrontation over Afghanistan and the neighbouring territories in Central and Southern Asia described by Captain Arthur Conolly (1807 – 1842) as ‘The Great Game’. Also, in the 20th century, Eurasia was the target of the Great Game between the United States and the Soviet Union which culminated in the Soviet-Afghan War (1979- 1989) and ended with the collapse of the USSR. In the 21st century, it is possible to state that we are experiencing a new confron- tation to control the destiny of the world not only by military means but especially through economy and business. In this context, the New Silk Road and those countries interested by Beijing’s strategy might represent the new battleground where trade agreement, oil and natural gas pipeline, and foreign direct investments (FDIs) are be- coming more and more decisive and fundamental in the clash among the West, Russia and China. In this international competition, it is not possible to forget the vast impact of terrorism, ethnic tensions and conflicts which are the biggest threats to countries’ sta- bility and security and the final success of the BRI. Indeed, the New Silk Road interests the Middle East, North Africa, the post-Soviet space, the Sub-Indian continent and South-East Asia which have experienced an increase of radicalisation process, terrorist attacks and geopolitical confrontations among states. In 2014 the world witnessed the rise of the Islamic State that aroused as the big- gest threat after a more than a decade characterised by al-Qaeda’s terrorist attacks. Pag. 5 ASRIE Geopolitical Report Volume 4/2018 ISSN 2532-845X Although nowadays it seems that the international coalition forces and local govern- ments defeated the Islamic State and the fall of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria might support this theory, foreign fighters and jihadist propaganda still represent a threat to the international security and a solid obstacle to the success of the BRI. Recent studies have demonstrated that there is the risk of a convergence relationship between terror- ism, organised crime and illicit trafficking in a unique entity which can become the predominant factor of instability among the countries of the New Silk Road. The incomplete modernization process in the Eurasian and African regions, the external influences by foreign governments and international companies because of geopolitical and strategic reasons, the rise of terrorist groups due to domestic and soci- oeconomic problems and ethnic conflicts, organised crime and illicit trafficking and their link with the international terrorist networks are among the main threats and future challenges for the BRI which Beijing should consider, manage and contrast for the success of this strategy. The first volume of Geopolitical Report of this year has the purpose to describe the BRI analysing geopolitical factors, security issues and investment opportunities thanks to analysis and consultancy of Italian and foreign experts and scholars. Professor Ambrish Dhaka in his paper The Belt and Road Semiotics and Its Ge- opolitical
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