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Realtors Association of New Mexico

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Realtors Association of New Mexico Realtors Association of New Mexico PRESENTED BY: BRIAN SANDEROFF, PRESIDENT 1 Population Growth 2010-2014 8.0% 7.0% 7.2% Natural 6.0% 6.5% Increase 6.5% +45,255 5.0% 5.3% Net 4.0% Migration -18,886 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% (339,467) (326,670) (26,393) (1,811,397) (179,017) Arizona Colorado New Mexico Texas Utah 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 2 New Mexico Growth Rate by Year 2010 to 2014 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 2010 to 2011 2011 to 2012 2012 to 2013 2013 to 2014 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 3 NEW MEXICO COUNTIES 2013 POPULATION ESTIMATES Ranked by Percent Population Change, 2010 to 2013 % % 2013 Population 2013 Population Population Change Population Change Estimate 2010-2013 Estimate 2010-2013 Lea County (Hobbs) 68,062 5.2% Los Alamos County (Los Alamos) 17,798 -0.8% Curry County (Clovis) 50,598 4.6% Socorro County (Socorro) 17,584 -1.6% Sandoval County (Rio Rancho) 136,575 3.8% Luna County (Deming) 24,659 -1.7% Eddy County (Carlsbad) 55,471 3.1% Lincoln County (Ruidoso) 20,105 -1.9% Otero County (Alamogordo) 65,616 2.9% San Juan County (Farmington) 126,503 -2.7% McKinley County (Gallup) 73,308 2.5% San Miguel County (Las Vegas) 28,541 -2.9% Santa Fe County (Santa Fe) 147,423 2.3% Guadalupe County (Santa Rosa) 4,551 -2.9% Doña Ana County (Las Cruces) 213,460 2.0% Catron County (Reserve) 3,607 -3.2% Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) 674,221 1.8% Sierra County (T or C) 11,572 -3.5% Roosevelt County (Portales) 19,955 0.5% Mora County (Wagon Mound) 4,704 -3.6% Cibola County (Grants) 27,335 0.4% Union County (Clayton) 4,370 -3.9% Taos County (Taos) 33,035 0.3% Torrance County (Moriarty) 15,717 -4.1% Chaves County (Roswell) 65,823 0.3% Quay County (Tucumcari) 8,662 -4.2% Harding County (Roy) 693 -0.3% Colfax County (Raton) 13,094 -4.8% Valencia County (Los Lunas) 76,284 -0.4% Hidalgo County (Lordsburg) 4,654 -4.9% Rio Arriba County (Española) 40,072 -0.4% De Baca County (Fort Sumner) 1,907 -5.7% Grant County (Silver City) 29,328 -0.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Estimates as of July 1, 2013 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 4 New Mexico Population 1910 to 2014 2,085,572 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 5 New Mexico Racial/Ethnic Profile - 2012 ABQ. U.S. N.M. METRO Non-Hispanic White 63.0% 39.8% 41.6% Hispanic 16.9% 47.0% 47.3% Native American 0.7% 8.5% 5.1% African-American 12.3% 1.8% 2.3% Asian/Other 7.1% 2.9% 3.7% * Among Hispanics residing in NM 85% are native born 15% are foreign born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, 2012 population estimates 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 6 New Mexico Economic Landscape Population Growth: Stagnant Economic Growth: Flat Construction and Manufacturing: Depressed Job Growth: Stagnant (except health and energy sectors) Gas & Oil: Increased Production Causing employment growth in the energy sector and increased revenue for state government. Plummeting price of oil causing lower than expected “new” revenues to state government. 177,000 people added to Medicaid rolls Drought 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 7 New Mexico Employment Sectors Pre-Recession 2008 vs November 2014 (Non-Agricultural) Job Changes Number of Jobs Percent Sector Since Oct. 2008 Nov. 2014 (Prelim.) of Total Health Services 12,900 130,100 15.7% Mining and Logging 7,700 28,300 3.4% Financial Activities 1,200 35,700 4.3% Leisure and Hospitality 1,100 87,000 10.5% Other Services 0 29,100 3.5% Transportation and Utilities -700 24,600 3.0% Retail Trade -900 95,900 11.6% Wholesale Trade -2,500 21,700 2.6% Information -2,600 13,700 1.7% Government -4,400 195,700 23.6% Manufacturing -7,700 27,100 3.3% Professional and Business Services -9,900 97,500 11.7% Construction -15,100 43,400 5.2% Total Employment -20,900 829,800 Source: Compiled by Research and Polling, Inc. Utilizing NM Workforce Solutions Department Data 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 8 New Mexico Unemployment Rate 10.0% 8.4% 7.9% 8.0% 6.6% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4% 6.0% 4.4% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.0% Oct. 2007 Oct. 2008 Oct. 2009 Oct. 2010 Oct. 2011 Oct. 2012 Oct. 2013 Nov. 2014 Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 9 Educational Attainment – New Mexico Among Those 25 Years or Older % Who Have at Least a 4-Year Degree Los Alamos County 63.2% Santa Fe County 39.3% Bernalillo County 31.8% Sandoval County (Rio Rancho) 28.1% Doña Ana County (Las Cruces) 26.0% Southern New Mexico (Excludes Doña Ana County) 17.9% Northern New Mexico (Excludes Santa Fe & Los Alamos counties) 16.4% New Mexico (Overall) 25.6% 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 10 New Mexico % Below Poverty in 2012 by Age and Race/Ethnicity 50% 44% 40% 34% 34% 30% 29% 21% 20% 18% 14% 12% 10% 0% % BELOW 18 YEARS 65 YEARS CHILDREN CHILDREN NATIVE AMERICAN HISPANIC NON-HISPANIC POVERTY LEVEL AND OVER AND OVER UNDER UNDER INDIAN CHILDREN UNDER WHITE CHILDREN 5 YEARS 18 YEARS CHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS CHILDREN UNDER 18 YEARS 18 YEARS 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 11 Income Support Programs Monthly Expenditures in New Mexico Monthly Programs Expenditures Food Stamps (SNAP) $56,104,002 (Federal $) (November 2014) Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) $3,805,758 (Federal $) (November 2014) Medicaid 70/30 $405,207,473 (Federal/State $) (November 2014) Total $465,117,233 Number of New Mexico Medicaid and Medicare Enrollees New Mexico Medicaid Enrollees: 756,086 (December 2014) New Mexico Medicare Members: 410,000 Source: New Mexico Human Services Dept. – November 2014 Monthly Statistical Report Source: Centers for Medicare/Medicaid Services 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 12 Federal Tax Dollars (2013) FEDERAL SPENDING FEDERAL TAX COMING INTO DOLLARS GOING OUT NEW MEXICO NEW MEXICO $17.4 BILLION (2013) $8.5 BILLION (2013) 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 13 New Mexico Political Dynamics Republican Governor House: Republican majority (37 to 33) Senate: Democratic majority (25 to 17) (But, Conservative Leadership) Balance of power shifting to conservatives Republicans have marginalized democratic power Coalition building by republicans/conservative democrats 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 14 New Mexico State House Number of Representatives by Party Democrat Democrat Republican Margin Post-Election (2008) (Obama Wave) 45 to 25 20 Post-Election (2010) 37 to 33 4 (Anti-Obama Mid-Term Wave) Post Election (2014) 33 to 37 -4 (Anti-Obama Mid-Term Wave) New Mexico State Senate Number of Senators by Party Democrat Democrat Republican Margin Post-Election (2008) (Obama Wave) 27 to 15 12 Post-Election (2012) 25 to 17 8 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 15 40 60 20 30 50 1/22/2015 45 25 35 55 10 New Mexico New PartyComposition State House 15 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 Following Each Election Each Following 1983 1985 DEM Seats 1987 ResearchPolling, & Inc. 1989 1991 REP Seats 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 16 2015 Top Legislative Issues Budget appropriation and budget projection on the amount of “new money” Drivers licenses for undocumented immigrants Minimum wage Education “Social promotion” hold back 3rd graders who cannot read proficiently Early childhood education Teachers salaries Suspend drivers licenses for chronic truants 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 17 Top Legislative Issues (continued) “Right-to-Work” legislation Prohibit public employee payroll deductions for union dues Photo ID at polls Expand Local Economic Development Act Fund to $50 million Cap loan interest rates at 36% Create an independent hearing office for tax disputes E-cigarettes: tax and prohibit sales to minors Confirm cabinet secretaries (i.e. Public Education Department) 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 18 National Political Mood USA RIGHT TRACK 32% USA WRONG TRACK 59% 45% APPROVE OBAMA APPROVAL RATING: 50% DISAPPROVE 14% APPROVE CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL RATING: 76% DISAPPROVE OUTCOME 9 US SENATE SEATS DEMOCRATS LOSE: 13 US HOUSE SEATS 11 STATE LEGISLATIVE CHAMBERS 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 19 New Mexico Voter Registration 1982 vs 2014 70% 63% 60% 50% 46.5% 40% 31% REPUBLICAN 31.1% 30% 22.3% 20% 10% 7% 0% 1982 2014 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 20 General Election Voter Turnout 1980 to 2014 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 1992 1996 1994 1982 2012 1998 1986 1984 2014 1990 1988 1980 2010 2002 2006 2004 2008 2000 Reg. Voters Votes Cast 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 21 New Mexico 2014 Election Federal Races US SENATE TOM UDALL (D) 55.6% ALLEN WEH (R) 44.4% US CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS CD I MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM (D) 58.6% MICHAEL FRESE (R) 41.4% CD II STEVE PEARCE (R) 64.4% ROXANNE “ROCKY” LARA (D) 35.5% CD III BEN RAY LUJAN (D) 61.5% JEFFERSON BYRD (R) 38.5% 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc. 22 Congressional District 1 FIVE INCUMBENTS SINCE 1969 No Incumbent has ever been defeated 1st Incumbent: Manuel Lujan (R) - Resigned to take cabinet position (1969-1989) 2nd Incumbent: Steve Schiff (R) - Died in office (1989-1998) 3rd Incumbent: Heather Wilson (R) - Sought higher office (1999-2008) 4th Incumbent: Martin Heinrich (D) – Sought higher office (2009-2012) 5th Incumbent: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) – (2013-Present) 1/22/2015 Research & Polling, Inc.
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