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2006 Transboundary Water Cooperation As a Tool for Conflict

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Where is the cooperation? 25 3.4.3 Is ‘benefit-sharing’ a solution? 29 3.5 Analyzing benefits 31 3.5.1 Question 1: Is water resource management an independent variable? 31 3.5.2 Question 2: What role can water management play in regional integration? 33 3.5.3 Question 3: How is benefit-sharing manifest, and therefore measurable? 37 4 Case Study 1: The Jordan River basin 41 4.1 The basin geography 41 4.2 Historical agreements on water-related issues 43 4.2.1 General 43 4.2.2 Broad overview of the existing agreements 44 4.3 The Johnston Plan and connected documents 44 4.4 The current status of water utilization 47 4.5 Conflict and cooperation in the basin 51 iiii 4.6 Factors relating to potential benefits 58 4.7 Conclusions 63 5 Case Study 2: The Kagera River basin 64 5.1 The basin geography 64 5.1.1 The Nile 64 5.1.2 The Kagera 70 5.2 Historical agreements on water-related issues 74 5.2.1 General 74 5.2.2 Broad overview of the existing agreements 76 5.3 Conflict and cooperation in the basin 77 5.4 Factors relating to potential benefits 82 5.5 Conclusions 88 6 Case Study 3: The Mekong River basin 90 6.1 The basin geography 90 6.1.1 General 90 6.1.2 The ecology and livelihood systems 92 6.1.3 The economic geography of the Mekong River basin 94 6.1.4 The management of the basin 95 6.1.5 Pressing development challenges 97 6.2 Historical events and agreements on water-related issues 98 6.2.1 General 98 6.2.2 Broad overview of the existing agreements 101 6.2.3 Activities of particular significance: WUP, BDP, Environment Program 102 6.2.4 The upper reaches of the Mekong 104 6.2.5 Conclusions on the status quo 107 6.3 The current use of the water resources 107 6.3.1 Agriculture 107 6.3.2 Hydropower 109 6.3.3 Fisheries 110 6.3.4 Transportation 112 6.3.5 Tourism 113 6.4 Conflict and cooperation in the basin 113 6.5 Sharing benefits 117 6.6 Conclusions 120 7 Interrogation of the Case Studies; broader implications 122 7.1 The Inter-SEDE model 122 7.1.1 Using the indicators to analyze key drivers 122 7.1.2 Benefits of relevance 129 7.1.3 Does ‘one size fit all?’ 135 7.2 Options and proposed approaches for improvements 140 iv 7.2.1 General issues 141 7.2.2 The Jordan River basin 144 7.2.3 The Nile/Kagera River basins 153 7.2.4 The Mekong River basin 159 7.2.5 Joint water management 164 7.3 Implications of broader relevance 166 8 Addressing the remaining issues 170 8.1 Reprise of the three key questions 170 8.1.1 Question 1: Is water resource management an independent variable? 170 8.1.2 Question 2: What role can water management play in regional integration? 173 8.1.3 Question 3: How is benefit-sharing manifest, and therefore measurable? 173 8.2 Securitization and desecuritization: Resolving the ‘water-security dilemma’ 175 8.3 The role of international financial assistance 177 8.3.1 The paucity of stated policies 177 8.3.2 Proposed keys to future approaches to international assistance 181 9 Conclusions relating to the key issues and questions 184 10 Literature cited 188 Annex 1: Historical Agreements Relevant to the Case Studies 207 Annex 2: Details of the Ranking/Banding Procedures 227 Figures Figure 1. Map of Africa showing the locations and names of the continent’s 61 international river basins. 9 Figure 2. Map of southern Africa, showing the international (shared) aquifer systems used by the SADC States. 10 Figure 3. The numbers of recorded events relating to conflict or cooperation on trans-boundary water resources. 25 Figure 4. Map of the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex, showing the positions of major inter-basin water transfer schemes. 35 Figure 5. The Jordan River basin. 42 Figure 6. A time-line showing major hydro-political and geopolitical events in the Jordan River basin. 51 Figure 7. The Nile River basin. 65 Figure 8. The Kagera River basin. 66 v Figure 9. Map of the El-Salam Canal as originally conceived. 69 Figure 10. A time-line showing major historical and hydro- political events in the Kagera River basin. 78 Figure 11. The MENA Security Complex. 79 Figure 12. The Mekong River basin. 93 Figure 13. The Mekong River basin, showing certain hydrological characteristics. 94 Figure 14. A time-line showing major historical and hydro- political events in the Mekong River basin. 115 Figure 15. Examples of the ranking and banding procedures used to address quantified and descriptive indicators. 123 Figure 16. The existing “vicious cycle” in Rwanda relating deforestation to the quality of water resources and energy generation, and the “virtuous circle”. 139 Figure 17. The recent Israeli proposals for desalination. 147 Figure 18. A diagrammatic representation of the anticipated changes to water allocations during the transition period. 148 Figure 19. Possible changes over time in the availability/allocation of water resources to the co-riparians of the Jordan River basin. 150 Figure 20. Diagrammatic representation of an early version of the Mini Peace Pipeline. 152 Tables Table 1. The factors to be considered
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