Queensland State Election, 2015

Queensland state election, 2015 The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 tially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either Legislative Assembly of Queensland. two or three seats short of a majority.[2][3] Political ana- The incumbent centre-right Liberal National Party lysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter’s Australian Party and independent Welling- (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party ton. (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Wellington announced on 5 February he would sup- Labor formed a minority government with the support of port a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Welling- confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote ton. It is only the seventh change of government in on conscience.[4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commis- Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since sion of Queensland declared the results of the election. 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting La- win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk bor in a position to form a minority government in the became the first woman to win government from oppo- hung parliament.[5][6][7] Even allowing for the LNP’s pre- sition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare viously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government 2001 at an election in a territory). in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44- The previous election saw Labor, which had governed seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two- the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state’s his- 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points. tory. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority gov- Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 ernment in Queensland history—compared to seven for February and advised him that she could form a minor- Labor, two for Katter’s Australian Party, and two won by ity government.[8][9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again independents. Following Labor’s defeat former Premier on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally in- Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded by vited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter’s Australian Party sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland.[10] while two further LNP MPs became independents, result- ing in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections 1 Results saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for state election, 2015 and Results of the Queensland state another term with a reduced majority. election, 2015 On election night, the outcome of the election was incon- clusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up 1.1 Seats changing hands being a record 14-point two-party swing.[1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recover- Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sit- ing much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 elec- ting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With tion. Brisbane had been Labor’s power base for more than the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman an- a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election nounced his retirement from politics, though remained as holding 36 of the capital’s 40 seats, losing all but three caretaker premier pending the final results. According at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane’s The in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for Courier-Mail, Labor had taken at least 30 seats off the a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins it needed to form government in its own right—a feat ini- than in 2012. 1 2 3 DATE Although Queensland is Australia’s least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been ex- tremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election un- derscored this. None of the LNP’s safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP’s safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor’s safe seats were in the capital. Following the election, the Palmer United Party candi- The disproportionality of the Queensland parliament in the 2015 date for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to election was 11.91 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly be- be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligi- tween Labor and The Greens. ble to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat.[12] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a 2 Voting method statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland used an optional preferential version of the Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The instant-runoff system in single-member electorates, in [13] statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome. 2016 compulsory preferential voting was readopted. The Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker govern- Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parlia- ment to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by- ment. In Queensland, a parliamentary term was for a election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung par- maximum of three years, measured from the day set for liament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove.[14] Con- the return of the electoral writs, as a result of the 2016 ref- versely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that erendum in future Queensland will have fixed four year the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would terms. The previous state election was held on 24 March not affect who forms government.[15] Professor Graeme 2012. Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous 3 Date to a “constitutional coup”. Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election.[16] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a matter to the Court of Disputed Returns.[17] The Ferny maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs in- Grove tally later indicated that PUP candidate Taverner cluding the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to did not have an effect on the outcome of the election, seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral destroying any chance of the Court of Disputed Returns roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to en- ordering a by-election.[18] rol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[22] On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queens- land stated that, based on legal advice, they would not The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Dis- that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than puted Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor three years from the day set for the return of writs for the minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey in- previous election, after which time the Legislative As- vited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The sembly expires.[23] The day set for the return of writs for LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with the 2012 election was 23 April 2012.[24] The Electoral Springborg later releasing a statement where he “congrat- Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general elec- ulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and tion no more than four days after the Legislative Assem- her government”.[19][20] On 16 February the LNP an- bly is dissolved or expires.[22]:§78(2) The last possible day nounced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than result.[21] 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legisla- tive Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015.

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