Queensland state election, 2015

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 tially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either Legislative Assembly of Queensland. two or three seats short of a majority.[2][3] Political ana- The incumbent centre-right Liberal National Party lysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter’s Australian Party and independent Welling- (LNP), led by Premier , was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party ton. (ALP), led by Opposition Leader . Wellington announced on 5 February he would sup- Labor formed a minority government with the support of port a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Welling- confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote ton. It is only the seventh change of government in on conscience.[4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commis- Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since sion of Queensland declared the results of the election. 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting La- win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk bor in a position to form a minority government in the became the first woman to win government from oppo- hung parliament.[5][6][7] Even allowing for the LNP’s pre- sition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare viously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government 2001 at an election in a territory). in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44- The previous election saw Labor, which had governed seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two- the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state’s his- 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points. tory. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority gov- Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 ernment in Queensland history—compared to seven for February and advised him that she could form a minor- Labor, two for Katter’s Australian Party, and two won by ity government.[8][9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again independents. Following Labor’s defeat former Premier on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally in- retired from politics and was succeeded by vited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter’s Australian Party sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland.[10] while two further LNP MPs became independents, result- ing in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections 1 Results saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for state election, 2015 and Results of the Queensland state another term with a reduced majority. election, 2015 On election night, the outcome of the election was incon- clusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up 1.1 Seats changing hands being a record 14-point two-party swing.[1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recover- Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sit- ing much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 elec- ting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With tion. Brisbane had been Labor’s power base for more than the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman an- a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election nounced his retirement from politics, though remained as holding 36 of the capital’s 40 seats, losing all but three caretaker premier pending the final results. According at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane’s The in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for Courier-Mail, Labor had taken at least 30 seats off the a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins it needed to form government in its own right—a feat ini- than in 2012.

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Although Queensland is Australia’s least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been ex- tremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election un- derscored this. None of the LNP’s safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP’s safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor’s safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candi- The disproportionality of the Queensland parliament in the 2015 date for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to election was 11.91 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly be- be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligi- tween Labor and The Greens. ble to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat.[12] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a 2 Voting method statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland used an optional preferential version of the Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The instant-runoff system in single-member electorates, in [13] statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome. 2016 compulsory preferential voting was readopted. The , who succeeded Newman as LNP election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker govern- Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parlia- ment to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by- ment. In Queensland, a parliamentary term was for a election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung par- maximum of three years, measured from the day set for liament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove.[14] Con- the return of the electoral writs, as a result of the 2016 ref- versely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that erendum in future Queensland will have fixed four year the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would terms. The previous state election was held on 24 March not affect who forms government.[15] Professor Graeme 2012. Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a care- taker government until a possible by-election analogous 3 Date to a “constitutional coup”. Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election.[16] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a matter to the Court of Disputed Returns.[17] The Ferny maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs in- Grove tally later indicated that PUP candidate Taverner cluding the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to did not have an effect on the outcome of the election, seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral destroying any chance of the Court of Disputed Returns roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to en- ordering a by-election.[18] rol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.[22] On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queens- land stated that, based on legal advice, they would not The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Dis- that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than puted Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor three years from the day set for the return of writs for the minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey in- previous election, after which time the Legislative As- vited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The sembly expires.[23] The day set for the return of writs for LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with the 2012 election was 23 April 2012.[24] The Electoral Springborg later releasing a statement where he “congrat- Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general elec- ulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and tion no more than four days after the Legislative Assem- her government”.[19][20] On 16 February the LNP an- bly is dissolved or expires.[22]:§78(2) The last possible day nounced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than result.[21] 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legisla- tive Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015. Under current election rules, the date of the election is at the discretion of the Governor under advice from the Premier, although the leaders of the two largest parties support in principle a change to fixed four-year terms.[25] 3

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Newman intended to announce the election date the next Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate day.[26][27] On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twit- won the 2014 Stafford by-election in ter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and July. held Bligh’s former seat of South Bris- writs had been issued for an election on 31 January.[28][29] bane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following This was the first time in over a century that an Australian Bligh’s resignation from parliament. general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 7 Pre-election pendulum 1874–75.[30] The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Dav- See also: Pre-election pendulum for the Queensland enport state by-election in South Australia. state election, 2015

Following the 2012 election, Ray Hopper left the LNP 4 Key dates to lead Katter’s Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents (Carl Judge in the electorate of Yeerongpilly and Dr Alex Douglas in the electorate of 5 Contesting parties Gaven), resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. By- Besides the ALP and LNP, the election was contested by elections in Redcliffe and Stafford saw Labor defeat the The Greens, Family First, Katter’s Australian Party, One LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Nation and the Palmer United Party.[32] 8 Retiring MPs 6 Last election Main article: Candidates of the Queensland state elec- See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland tion, 2015 state election, 2012 Members who were deselected or who chose not to The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queens- renominate were as follows: land state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and 8.1 Labor a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the • Tim Mulherin (Mackay) – announced 9 January Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The 2015[33] election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded as Premier in 2007. Newman was the for- • Desley Scott (Woodridge) – announced 11 March mer Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having 2014[34] resigned the position to run for Premier. As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he 8.2 LNP chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of par- • Peter Dowling (Redlands) – deselected 25 October liament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposi- 2014[35] tion Leader in the parliament. • Bruce Flegg (Moggill) – deselected 7 December The Labor Party went into the election with a modest 2014[36] margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, • David Gibson (Gympie) – announced 2 May the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with 2014[37] Newman winning of Ashgrove from the former Environ- • ment Minister, Kate Jones. Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – announced 5 Septem- ber 2014[38] Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter’s Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP • Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – announced 2 October won two seats. Only two of the independent members 2014[39] were re-elected. • Ted Malone (Mirani) – announced 26 September Three by-elections have occurred since the last state 2014[40] 4 11 REFERENCES

• Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – announced 19 • Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, September 2014[41] 2015–2018 • Politics of Queensland 8.3 Independent 11 References • Liz Cunningham (Gladstone) – announced 6 Jan- uary 2015[42] [1] “New premier tipped for Queensland”. SBS World News (Australia). AAP. 30 January 2015. Retrieved 2 February 2015.

9 Polling [2] Agius, Kym (31 January 2015). “Queensland election 2015: Campbell Newman concedes Ashgrove to ALP’s Kate Jones”. ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 1 Febru- ary 2015.

[3] Wardill, Steven; Tin, Jason (1 February 2015). “Queensland election 2015: Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor on brink of victory”. The Sunday Mail. Retrieved 1 February 2015.

[4] Remeikis, Amy (5 February 2015). “Queensland Elec- tion: Peter Wellington supports Labor to govern”. Brisbane Times. Retrieved 6 February 2015.

[5] “Live Results - Queensland Election 2015”. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 9 February 2015.

[6] Kimmorley, Sarah (8 February 2015). “The ALP is close to forming government inPrimary- Queensland”. Business Insider vote polling from the 2012 election until late 2014 Australia. Retrieved 9 February 2015.

[7] “Queensland election 2015: Annastacia Palaszczuk in- vited to form government, interim ministry to be sworn in Saturday”. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corpora- tion). 13 February 2015. Retrieved 14 February 2015.

[8] Withey, Andree; Agius, Kym (9 February 2015). “Queensland election 2015: Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk to seek Governor’s permission to form govern- ment”. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Retrieved 9 February 2015.

[9] “Queensland election 2015: Labor secures 44 seats, enough to form minority government”. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 13 February 2015. Retrieved 19 February 2015.

[10] “Queensland election 2015:Two- Annastacia Palaszczuk sworn party-preferred polling summary from the 2012 election in as Premier”. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Cor- until early 2015.]] poration). 14 February 2015. Retrieved 14 February 2015.

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Aus- [11] Seats changing hands, 2015 QLD election: Antony Green tralian is conducted via random telephone number selec- ABC tion in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually con- [12] “Queensland election 2015: Ferny Grove by-election sist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin 'likely' after PUP candidate bankruptcy revelation, LNP of error is ±3 percentage points. president Bruce McIver says”. ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). 4 February 2015. Retrieved 8 February 2015. 10 See also [13] “Electoral commission will ask court to decide on Ferny Grove byelection”. The Guardian Australia. Australian Associated Press. 8 February 2015. Retrieved 8 February • Candidates of the Queensland state election, 2015 2015. 5

[14] Bochenski, Natalie (8 February 2015). “Election re- [31] “Election Timetable: 2015 State General election”. Elec- sult should wait on Ferny Grove: Springborg”. Brisbane toral Commission of Queensland. Retrieved 16 February Times. Retrieved 8 February 2015. 2015.

[15] Green, Antony (5 February 2015). “The Impact of Ferny [32] Atfield, Cameron (7 January 2015). “Queensland elec- Grove on Forming Government in Queensland”. Antony tion: Minor parties line up”. Brisbane Times. Retrieved Green’s Election Blog. Australian Broadcasting Corpora- 25 January 2015. tion. Retrieved 9 February 2015. [33] “Deputy ALP leader Tim Mulherin resigns on day four [16] Orr, Graeme. “The Caretaker’s Number is Up”. Re- of the campaign”. ABC News. Australian Broadcasting trieved 11 February 2015. Corporation. 9 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015. [34] Remeikis, Amy (11 March 2014). “Cameron Dick’s plan [17] Robertson, Joshua (11 February 2015). “Queensland La- to return puts Labor leadership in the spotlight”. Brisbane bor one step closer to taking office, but court appeal Times. Retrieved 25 January 2015. looms”. The Guardian Australia. Retrieved 11 February 2015. [35] Remeikis, Amy (25 October 2014). "'Sexting' MP Peter Dowling shattered as LNP members vote 'no'". Brisbane [18] Green, Antony (12 February 2015). “Ferny Grove Pref- Times. Retrieved 25 January 2015. erence Distribution Published”. Antony Green’s Election Blog. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 14 [36] “Queensland MP Bruce Flegg defeated in preselection February 2015. battle for Moggill”. ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 8 December 2014. Retrieved 25 January [19] Brennan, Rose; Wardill, Steven (13 February 2015). 2015. “Electoral commission declares final seats in Queensland election”. The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 14 February 2015. [37] Atfield, Cameron (3 May 2014). “Queensland MP David Gibson to quit politics”. Brisbane Times. Retrieved 25 [20] Remeikis, Amy (14 February 2015). “Queensland Elec- January 2015. tion 2015: A long, short road back to government”. Brisbane Times. Retrieved 14 February 2015. [38] “LNP congratulates retiring Howard Hobbs”. Liberal Na- tional Party. Retrieved 25 January 2015. [21] Vogler, Sarah (16 February 2015). “LNP decides against legal challenge to Ferny Grove election result”. The [39] “Retirement of Vaughan Johnson MP”. Liberal National Courier-Mail. Retrieved 19 February 2015. Party. Retrieved 25 January 2015. [40] “Ted Malone won't run for Mirani seat again”. Daily Mer- [22] “Electoral Act 1992” (PDF). Queensland Government. cury. 26 September 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2015. Queensland Legislation. Retrieved 25 January 2012. [41] “Retirement of Rosemary Menkens MP”. Liberal Na- [23] “Constitution of Queensland 2001” (PDF). Queensland tional Party. Retrieved 25 January 2015. Government. Queensland Legislation. Retrieved 25 Jan- uary 2012. [42] “Gladstone MP confirms she won't run in 2015 election”. The Observer. 6 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January [24] “Election Timetable: 2012 State General election”. 2015. Electoral Commission of Queensland. Retrieved 25 Jan- uary 2012. [43] “7 The Essential Report - Queensland State Election” (PDF). news.com.au. 29 January 2015. Retrieved 29 Jan- [25] “Fixed four-year terms on horizon in the Sunshine State”. uary 2015. The Australian. 29 March 2012. Retrieved 25 January 2015. [44] “7 News - Queensland poll - 20 January 2015”. Reach- TEL. 21 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015. [26] “Queensland Premier expected to call snap election”. [45] “Queensland State Election too close to call with only a ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 5 Jan- week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier uary 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015. in NSW”. Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Re- [27] “Campbell Newman to name Queensland election date to- trieved 25 January 2015. morrow”. The Courier-Mail. 5 January 2015. Retrieved [46] “Galaxy Polling - Queensland State Election - 7-9 January 25 January 2015. 2015”. Galaxy Research. Retrieved 12 January 2015.

[28] “Campbell Newman: @theqldpremier”. Twitter. Re- [47] “Queensland” (PDF). Newspoll. The Australian. Re- trieved 25 January 2015. trieved 25 January 2015.

[29] Remeikis, Amy (6 January 2015). “Queensland election: [48] “7 News - Queensland poll - 6 January 2015”. ReachTEL. parties scramble after poll called”. Brisbane Times. Re- 7 January 2015. Retrieved 11 January 2015. trieved 6 January 2015. [49] “Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close [30] Owens, Jared (7 January 2015). “Queensland election: to call. Palmer United Party loses support in every State”. January call defies holiday wisdom”. The Australian. Re- Roy Morgan Research. 26 November 2014. Retrieved 11 trieved 7 January 2015. January 2015. 6 12 EXTERNAL LINKS

[50] “Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to [69] “The LNP Looks Set to Easily Win Saturday’s Queensland call”. Roy Morgan Research. 28 October 2014. Retrieved State Election with Former Brisbane Lord Mayor Camp- 11 January 2015. bell Newman Elected Premier”. Roy Morgan Research. 22 March 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015. [51] “ALP in ‘Box Seat’ for Victorian State Election. Coali- tion still ahead in NSW & Queensland”. Roy Morgan Re- [70] “Palmer to re-form UAP party for election”. Brisbane search. 1 October 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015. Times. 25 April 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[52] “18/19 Nov 2014: SUPPORT FOR LNP DROPS TO [71] Howells, Melinda (6 June 2013). “Billionaire Clive NEW LOW”. Galaxy Research. Retrieved 25 January Palmer’s party gains official registration in Qld”. ABC 2015. News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Retrieved 11 January 2015. [53] “Working for Queenslanders - Queensland state poll - 2nd April 2014”. ReachTEL. 4 April 2014. Retrieved 11 Jan- uary 2015. 12 External links [54] “Queensland poll - July 2013”. ReachTEL. 11 July 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015. • 2015 State General Election – Electoral Commis- [55] “7 News - Queensland poll - May 2013”. ReachTEL. 26 sion Queensland May 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015. • 2015 Queensland election – Antony Green ABC [56] “Do Queenslanders give a Gonski?". ReachTEL. 24 April 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[57] “Largest scientific political poll in Australian history”. ReachTEL. 10 April 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[58] “Newman maintains lead in Queensland”. ReachTEL. 21 March 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[59] “Sharp increase for LNP support in Queensland”. Reach- TEL. 24 February 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[60] “Queensland Labor support higher to start 2013”. Reach- TEL. 20 January 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[61] “Queensland LNP performance causing Federal issues”. ReachTEL. 16 December 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[62] “LNP vote slumps further in Queensland”. ReachTEL. 25 November 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[63] “No support for asset sales in Queensland”. ReachTEL. 14 October 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[64] “LNP support unchanged in QLD after a difficult month”. ReachTEL. 16 September 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[65] “Newman cops battering in State poll - Nine News Bris- bane”. ReachTEL. 21 August 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[66] “L-NP Lead in Four Major States”. Roy Morgan Research. 17 August 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.

[67] “Campbell Newman’s first 100 days - LNP increases lead over Labor”. ReachTEL. 3 July 2012. Retrieved 11 Jan- uary 2015.

[68] “MORGAN POLL STATE VOTING INTENTION L- NP LEADS IN AUSTRALIA’S BIGGEST STATES: NSW: L-NP (61%) CF. ALP (39%); VICTORIA: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) & QUEENSLAND: LNP (62%) CF. ALP (38%)". Roy Morgan Research. 16 June 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015. 7

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