DOCSLIB.ORG

Special Feature Ihpeiin H Oe Aaeesadtesaeof State the and Know, Parameters Nature

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Special Feature Ihpeiin H Oe Aaeesadtesaeof State the and Know, Parameters Nature Ecology, 84(6), 2003, pp. 1403±1411 q 2003 by the Ecological Society of America UNCERTAINTY AND THE MANAGEMENT OF MULTISTATE ECOSYSTEMS: AN APPARENTLY RATIONAL ROUTE TO COLLAPSE G. D. PETERSON,1 S. R. CARPENTER,1 AND W. A. B ROCK2 1Center for Limnology, 680 N. Park St, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA 2Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA Abstract. We use a simple model of ecosystem management to demonstrate that ap- parently rational management approaches can lead to ecological collapse. Our model of the ecosystem management of lake eutrophication integrates lake dynamics, management decision-making, and learning in a framework that is deliberately simpli®ed to highlight the role of model uncertainty. The simulated lake can switch between alternate eutrophic and oligotrophic states. Managers consider two management models of the lake, one for an oligotrophic lake and the other for a eutrophic lake. As managers observe the lake varying from year to year, they estimate how well each of the two management models is supported by the observed data. Management policies maximize the expected net present value of the lake. Even under optimistic assumptions about environmental variation, learning ability, and management control, conventional decision theory and optimal control ap- proaches fail to stabilize ecological dynamics. Rather, these methods drive ecosystems into cycles of collapse and recovery. We suggest how scientists could help prevent ecosystem management from driving ecosystems toward collapse. Key words: collapse; ecological economics; ecosystem management; eutrophication; model un- certainty; optimal control; resilience. Special Feature INTRODUCTION the management of salmon in the Columbia River for example, ecological management has focused on ex- Ecosystem management has a long and diverse his- pensive and sophisticated attempts to assess the cred- tory. It has sometimes been successful (Berkes and ibility of a wide variety of alternate models of eco- Folke 1998), and sometimes not. For example, histor- system functioning (Marmorek and Peters 2001). The ical societies, such as the Maya (Hodell et al. 2001), aim is to discover which model or set of models appears and modern scienti®cally managed resource extraction to best forecast the future behavior of the ecosystem. systems, such as that for the Northern cod (Walters and Although such efforts are certainly worthwhile, there Maguire 1996), have appeared to succeed at ecosystem may be pressure for science to act as a dispassionate management until an abrupt and surprising collapse. tool to assess the relative validity of a selected set of Researchers have tried to explain these collapses. Some alternative models. Too often, the consideration of un- researchers attribute ecological collapse to ignorance certainty focuses only upon the prediction errors of a of gradual ecological change (Martin 1973, Alroy single model while the credibility of the model itself 2001), rational overexploitation (Clark 1973), or the is not assessed (Clark et al. 2001). The credibility of dif®culties of creating effective institutions to manage a given model depends on the other models with which common pool resources (Hardin 1968). Others focus it is compared and on the data available for comparing on the role of social inequality and greed (Blaikie and models. If the data represent only a subset of the po- Brook®eld 1987). Although few people would argue tential behavior of the ecosystem, then the model com- that resource collapses derive from single causes, we believe that downplaying the uncertainty of manage- parison may be biased, or the appropriate model may ment models may be a neglected cause of ecological not even be discovered, because the behaviors of the collapse. ecosystem relevant to the appropriate model have not A large portion of ecological management involves been observed. If an important model is omitted from decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Cur- the set of models under consideration, substantial errors rent approaches to ecosystem management often cope can occur in assessing the credibility of models, making with uncertainty by ®tting models to data, or using data predictions, and choosing management actions. Thus, to compare competing models (Hilborn and Mangel model uncertainty has critical implications for ecosys- 1997, Clark et al. 2001). In some ecological con¯icts, tem management, but the assessment of model uncer- tainty is limited by the range of ecosystem behaviors observed in the data, and by the diversity of models Manuscript received 3 December 2001; revised 3 June 2002; accepted 21 June 2002; ®nal version received 3 July 2002. Cor- created by the analyst. responding Editor: J. S. Clark. For reprints of this Special Fea- In this paper, we show that when the family of mod- ture, see footnote 1, p. 1349. els being considered does not adequately capture key 1403 1404 G. D. PETERSON ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 84, No. 6 dynamics, even sophisticated management approaches builds up in soil that erodes into water bodies and caus- will function poorly. We model a management process es eutrophication (Bennett et al. 2001). Agricultural that uses passive adaptive management to select poli- production depends upon the use of fertilizer. Because cies. Passive adaptive management is thought to be the fertilizer increases the value of agriculture while de- best management practice when active adaptive man- creasing the value of ecosystem services, there is a agement experiments are not possible (Walters 1986). trade-off between the bene®ts from polluting activities In this case, passive adaptive management chooses pol- and the costs these activities impose on ecosystem ser- icies based on the posterior probabilities of two com- vices. peting models given observed data. We focus on model Phosphorus recycling within a lake can maintain a misspeci®cation by allowing the managers to know, eutrophic state. Recycling exhibits threshold behavior with precision, the model parameters and the state of that is related to the accumulation of P in sediments, nature. wind mixing, and the oxygen content of deep water (Carpenter et al. 1998a). Experimental lake manipu- RATIONALE lations have shown that only a few years of high P Case studies and detailed simulation models provide levels can lead to the accumulation of enough P in the insight into the diversity of ecosystem management sediment to initiate P recycling (Schindler et al. 1987). approaches that have been applied in different situa- In eutrophic lakes, the amount of P recycled from lake tions. However, the complexity of the examples and sediments may exceed annual inputs (Soranno et al. the multiple interacting sources of variation in each 1997). The ease with which a eutrophic lake can return situation make it dif®cult to isolate the role of uncer- to an oligotrophic state following a reduction of nu- tainty in a clear way. Therefore, we have created an trient inputs depends upon properties of the lake such exceptionally simple socioecological model of ecosys- as area, depth, food web structure, submerged vege- tem management that isolates the role of model un- tation, and the concentration of P in lake sediments. certainty. Some eutrophic lakes quickly return to an oligotrophic Our model greatly simpli®es the dynamics of the state following the cessation of nutrient addition, while ecosystem, the information available to managers, and others do not (Scheffer et al. 1993, Carpenter et al. the impact of management interventions, in order to 1998a). focus attention on model uncertainty, its interaction with decision-making, and its implications for ecosys- AMINIMAL MODEL tem dynamics. We use linear equations to describe lake Our model of ecosystem management consists of a dynamics, providing access to useful analytical sim- model of lake dynamics, a learning process, and a man- pli®cations. Our model omits social complexities, such agement decision-making process (Fig. 1). Lake P dy- as institutional interactions, and ecological complexi- namics can produce eutrophic or oligotrophic states. Special Feature ties, such as the interaction of local feedbacks with Managers have two competing management models of external drivers. Rather, our model focuses on the role the lake. Their degree of belief in each of these models of model uncertainty in the dynamics of a managed determines their expectation of the lake's response to ecosystem. We will show that the dynamics of model management. Lake management is based upon maxi- choice from a limited set of alternatives lead to cycles mizing the expected value of a trade-off between lake of collapse and recovery. pollution and lake ecosystem services. Each year, sci- To investigate the dynamics of ecosystem manage- entists collect data and update their beliefs about their ment we use the problem of lake eutrophication. Lakes management models. The details of the lake, learning, can exist in either an oligotrophic or eutrophic state and management components of our ecosystem man- (Scheffer et al. 1993, Smith 1998). Oligotrophic lakes agement model are presented in the following sections. are characterized by low nutrient inputs, low to mod- erate levels of plant production, and relatively clear Lake dynamics water. Eutrophic lakes have high nutrient inputs, high We represent the state of a lake by the concentration plant production, and murky water. They can also be of P. We assume that the dynamics of P within a lake anoxic and produce blooms of toxic algae. People usu- depends upon the loading of P, P removal, and P re- ally ®nd that oligotrophic lakes produce ecosystem ser- cycling. The P dynamics in a lake are modeled by the vices, such as water for human consumption, irrigation, difference equation or industrial use, resources such as ®sh or waterfowl, or recreation, that are more valuable than those pro- BXtttt1 b 1 l 1 S if X , Xcrit Xt11 5 duced by eutrophic lakes (Wilson and Carpenter 1999). 5BXtttt1 r 1 b 1 l 1 S if X $ Xcrit Eutrophication is usually caused by the excessive S ; N (0, s 2) (1) input of nutrients, primarily phosphorus (P) to a lake t (Schindler 1977).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse Graeme S
    TREE 2271 No. of Pages 19 Review Unifying Research on Social–Ecological Resilience and Collapse Graeme S. Cumming1,* and Garry D. Peterson2 Ecosystems influence human societies, leading people to manage ecosystems Trends for human benefit. Poor environmental management can lead to reduced As social–ecological systems enter a ecological resilience and social–ecological collapse. We review research on period of rapid global change, science resilience and collapse across different systems and propose a unifying social– must predict and explain ‘unthinkable’ – ecological framework based on (i) a clear definition of system identity; (ii) the social, ecological, and social ecologi- cal collapses. use of quantitative thresholds to define collapse; (iii) relating collapse pro- cesses to system structure; and (iv) explicit comparison of alternative hypoth- Existing theories of collapse are weakly fi integrated with resilience theory and eses and models of collapse. Analysis of 17 representative cases identi ed 14 ideas about vulnerability and mechanisms, in five classes, that explain social–ecological collapse. System sustainability. structure influences the kind of collapse a system may experience. Mechanistic Mechanisms of collapse are poorly theories of collapse that unite structure and process can make fundamental understood and often heavily con- contributions to solving global environmental problems. tested. Progress in understanding col- lapse requires greater clarity on system identity and alternative causes of Sustainability Science and Collapse collapse. Ecology and human use of ecosystems meet in sustainability science, which seeks to understand the structure and function of social–ecological systems and to build a sustainable Archaeological theories have focused and equitable future [1]. Sustainability science has been built on three main streams of on a limited range of reasons for sys- tem collapse.
    [Show full text]
  • Technology Driven Inequality Leads to Poverty and Resource Depletion T ⁎ M
    Ecological Economics 160 (2019) 215–226 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon Analysis Technology driven inequality leads to poverty and resource depletion T ⁎ M. Usman Mirzaa,b, , Andries Richterb, Egbert H. van Nesa, Marten Scheffera a Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Netherlands b Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Sub-department of Economics, Wageningen University, Netherlands ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The rapid rise in inequality is often seen to go in-hand with resource overuse. Examples include water extraction Inequality in Pakistan, land degradation in Bangladesh, forest harvesting in Sub-Saharan Africa and industrial fishing in Technology Lake Victoria. While access to ecosystem services provided by common pool resources mitigates poverty, ex- Social-ecological systems clusive access to technology by wealthy individuals may fuel excessive resource extraction and deplete the Poverty trap resource, thus widening the wealth gap. We use a stylised social-ecological model, to illustrate how a positive Dynamic systems feedback between wealth and technology may fuel local inequality. The resulting rise in local inequality can lead Critical transitions to resource degradation and critical transitions such as ecological resource collapse and unexpected increase in poverty. Further, we find that societies may evolve towards a stable state of few wealthy and manypoorin- dividuals, where the distribution of wealth depends on how access to technology is distributed. Overall, our results illustrate how access to technology may be a mechanism that fuels resource degradation and conse- quently pushes most vulnerable members of society into a poverty trap. 1. Introduction at first and then drops as gains are distributed more evenly in developing economies, giving rise to an inverted U shaped curve (Kuznet, 1955).
    [Show full text]
  • From Predator to Parasite: Private Property, Neoliberalism, and Ecological Disaster
    From Predator to Parasite: Private Property, Neoliberalism, and Ecological Disaster Jenica M. Kramer John B. Hall ABSTRACT The institution of private property forms the basis for ecological disaster. The profit-seeking of the vested interests, in conjunction with their modes of valuing nature through the apparatuses of neoclassical economics and neoliberalism ​ proceed to degrade and destroy life on Earth. We assert that the radical, or original ​ institutional economics (OIE) of Thorstein Veblen, further advanced by William Dugger, have crucial insights to offer the interdisciplinary fields of political ecology and ecological economics which seek to address the underlying causes and emergent complications of the unfolding, interconnected, social, and ecological crises that define our age. This inquiry will attempt to address what, to us, appears to be either overlooked or underexplored in these research communities. Namely, that the usurpation of society’s surplus production, or, the accumulation of capital, is a parasite that sustains itself not only through the exploitation of human labor, ​ ​ but by exploiting society and nature more broadly, resulting in the deterioration of life itself. We attest that the transformation of the obvious predator that pursues power through pecuniary gain into a parasite, undetected by its host, is realized in its most rapacious form in the global hegemonic system of neoliberal capitalism. JEL CLASSIFICATION CODES B520, N500, O440, Q560 KEYWORDS Ecological Economics, Environmentalism, Neoliberalism, Original Institutional Economics, Political Ecology This inquiry seeks to establish that the institution of private property forms the basis for ecological disaster. The profit-seeking of the vested interests, in conjunction with their modes of valuing nature through the apparatuses of neoclassical economics and neoliberalism proceed to ​ ​ degrade and destroy life on Earth.
    [Show full text]
  • The Inflated Significance of Neutral Genetic Diversity in Conservation Genetics PERSPECTIVE Jo~Ao C
    PERSPECTIVE The inflated significance of neutral genetic diversity in conservation genetics PERSPECTIVE Jo~ao C. Teixeiraa,b,1 and Christian D. Hubera,1 Edited by Andrew G. Clark, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, and approved December 30, 2020 (received for review July 22, 2020) The current rate of species extinction is rapidly approaching unprecedented highs, and life on Earth presently faces a sixth mass extinction event driven by anthropogenic activity, climate change, and ecological collapse. The field of conservation genetics aims at preserving species by using their levels of genetic diversity, usually measured as neutral genome-wide diversity, as a barometer for evaluating pop- ulation health and extinction risk. A fundamental assumption is that higher levels of genetic diversity lead to an increase in fitness and long-term survival of a species. Here, we argue against the perceived impor- tance of neutral genetic diversity for the conservation of wild populations and species. We demonstrate that no simple general relationship exists between neutral genetic diversity and the risk of species extinc- tion. Instead, a better understanding of the properties of functional genetic diversity, demographic his- tory, and ecological relationships is necessary for developing and implementing effective conservation genetic strategies. conservation genetics | adaptive potential | inbreeding depression | genetic load | species extinction Are Species with Little Genetic Diversity Moreover, low genetic diversity is related to reduced Endangered? individual life span and health, along with a depleted Climate change caused by human activity is currently capacity for population growth (9). In contrast, high responsible for widespread ecological disruption and levels of genetic diversity are often seen as key to habitat destruction, with an ensuing unprecedented promoting population survival and guaranteeing the rate of species loss known as the Anthropocene Mass adaptive potential of natural populations in the face of Extinction (1–4).
    [Show full text]
  • Combating Ecosystem Collapse from the Tropics to the Antarctic
    Received: 13 October 2020 | Revised: 12 January 2021 | Accepted: 20 January 2021 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15539 OPINION Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic Dana M. Bergstrom1,2 | Barbara C. Wienecke1 | John van den Hoff1 | Lesley Hughes3 | David B. Lindenmayer4 | Tracy D. Ainsworth5 | Christopher M. Baker6,7,8 | Lucie Bland9 | David M. J. S. Bowman10 | Shaun T. Brooks11 | Josep G. Canadell12 | Andrew J. Constable13 | Katherine A. Dafforn3 | Michael H. Depledge14 | Catherine R. Dickson15 | Norman C. Duke16 | Kate J. Helmstedt17 | Andrés Holz18 | Craig R. Johnson11 | Melodie A. McGeoch15 | Jessica Melbourne- Thomas13,19 | Rachel Morgain4 | Emily Nicholson20 | Suzanne M. Prober21 | Ben Raymond1,11 | Euan G. Ritchie20 | Sharon A. Robinson2,22 | Katinka X. Ruthrof23,24 | Samantha A. Setterfield25 | Carla M. Sgrò15 | Jonathan S. Stark1 | Toby Travers11 | Rowan Trebilco13,19 | Delphi F. L. Ward11 | Glenda M. Wardle26 | Kristen J. Williams27 | Phillip J. Zylstra22,28 | Justine D. Shaw29 1Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment, Kingston, Tas., Australia 2Global Challenges Program, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia 3Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia 5School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of New South Wales, Randwick, NSW, Australia 6School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia
    [Show full text]
  • Ecological Collapse and the Emergence of Travelling Waves at the Onset of Shear Turbulence
    LETTERS PUBLISHED ONLINE: 16 NOVEMBER 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NPHYS3548 Ecological collapse and the emergence of travelling waves at the onset of shear turbulence Hong-Yan Shih, Tsung-Lin Hsieh and Nigel Goldenfeld* The mechanisms and universality class underlying the that would indicate some form of collective behaviour, as well remarkable phenomena at the transition to turbulence remain as small-scale modes that would be representative of turbulent a puzzle 130 years after their discovery1. Near the onset to dynamics. In particular, we report here the behaviour of the velocity 1 2 . / θ turbulence in pipes , plane Poiseuille flow and Taylor–Couette field uz , uθ , ur , where the bar denotes average over z and , and 3 4 flow , transient turbulent regions decay either directly or ur D0. We refer to this as the zonal flow. In Fourier space, the zonal through splitting5–8, with characteristic timescales that exhibit flow is given by uQ.kD0,mD0,r/, where k is the axial wavenumber a super-exponential dependence on Reynolds number9,10. and m is the azimuthal wavenumber, r is the real space radial The statistical behaviour is thought to be related to directed coordinate and the tilde denotes Fourier transform in the θ and percolation (DP; refs6,11–13). Attempts to understand z directions only. Turbulence was represented by short-wavelength . /≡. = /P R jQ. /j2 transitional turbulence dynamically invoke periodic orbits and modes, whose energy is ET t 1 2 jk|≥1,jm|≥1 u k,m,r dV . streamwise vortices14–19, the dynamics of long-lived chaotic Shown in Fig.1a is a time series for the energy 20 .
    [Show full text]
  • Direct and Indirect Trophic Effects of Predator Depletion on Basal Trophic Levels
    Direct and indirect trophic effects of predator depletion on basal trophic levels Honors Thesis Steve Hagerty Sc.B. Candidate Environmental Science Brown University April 17, 2015 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract 3 Introduction Human impacts on coastal ecosystems 4 Predator depletion in New England salt marshes 5 Consequences on meiofauna 6 Question and Hypothesis 7 Materials and methods Study sites 8 Correlative sampling 8 Consumer removal 9 Sediment type experiment 9 Results 10 Discussion Predator depletion impacts on lower trophic levels 14 Direct vs. indirect trophic effects 15 Indirect habitat modification effects 15 Conclusion 15 Acknowledgements 17 Literature Cited 17 Appendix 22 2 INTRODUCTION Human impacts on coastal ecosystems Human impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide is one of the most pressing problems for conservation biology and ecology (Vitousek et al. 1997a, Karieva et al. 2007). Understanding these impacts sufficiently to predict and/or mitigate them requires elucidating their mechanistic nature, interactions and cumulative effects. All ecosystems have been impacted by human activity, whether on local scales by human development and point source pollution (Vitousek et al. 1997a, Goudie 2013) or on global scales by climate change and shifts in the global nitrogen supply (Hulme at al. 1999, Vitousek et al. 1997b, Galloway et al. 2008). Accelerated by unchecked human population (Luck 2007, Goudie 2013) and economic growth (He et al. 2014), these impacts have led to the unprecedented collapses or major degradation of critical marine ecosystems, including coral reefs (Mora et al. 2008, Hughes et al. 2015), seagrasses (Lotze et al. 2006), mangroves (Kathiresan and Bingham 2001, Alongi 2002), benthic continental shelves (Jackson et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Habitat Loss, Trophic Collapse, and the Decline of Ecosystem Services
    2022-58 Workshop on Theoretical Ecology and Global Change 2 - 18 March 2009 Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services DOBSON Andrew* and other authors Princeton University Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Guyot Hall M31, Princeton NJ 08544-1003 U.S.A. Ecology, 87(8), 2006, pp. 1915–1924 Ó 2006 by the the Ecological Society of America HABITAT LOSS, TROPHIC COLLAPSE, AND THE DECLINE OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES 1,10 2 3 4 1 5 ANDREW DOBSON, DAVID LODGE, JACKIE ALDER, GRAEME S. CUMMING, JUAN KEYMER, JACQUIE MCGLADE, 6 2,11 7 8 9 1 HAL MOONEY, JAMES A. RUSAK, OSVALDO SALA, VOLKMAR WOLTERS, DIANA WALL, RACHEL WINFREE, 2,12 AND MARGUERITE A. XENOPOULOS 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544-1003 USA 2Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, P.O. Box 369, Juniper and Krause Streets, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556-0369 USA 3Fisheries Centre, 2204 Main Mall, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4 Canada 4Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, P. Bag Rondebosch 7701, Cape Town, South Africa 5University College of London, 10 The Coach House, Compton Verney CV35 9HJ UK 6Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Herrin Labs, Room 459, Stanford, California 94305-5020 USA 7Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912 USA 8Department of Animal Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32 (IFZ), D-35392 Giessen, Germany 9Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523-1499 USA Abstract.
    [Show full text]
  • Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale
    University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit -- Staff Publications Unit 1998 Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale Garry D. Peterson University of Florida, [email protected] Craig R. Allen University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] C. S. Holling University of Florida Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ncfwrustaff Part of the Other Environmental Sciences Commons Peterson, Garry D.; Allen, Craig R.; and Holling, C. S., "Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale" (1998). Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit -- Staff Publications. 4. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ncfwrustaff/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit -- Staff Publications by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Ecosystems (1998) 1: 6–18 ECOSYSTEMS ௠ 1998 Springer-Verlag O RIGINAL ARTICLES Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale Garry Peterson,1* Craig R. Allen,2 and C. S. Holling1 1Department of Zoology, Box 118525, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; and 2Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, 117 Newins-Zeigler Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA ABSTRACT We describe existing models of the relationship redundant species that operate at different scales, between species diversity and ecological function, thereby reinforcing function across scales. The distri- and propose a conceptual model that relates species bution of functional diversity within and across scales richness, ecological resilience, and scale.
    [Show full text]
  • China's Drivers and Planetary Ecological Collapse
    real-world economics review, issue no. 82 subscribe for free China’s drivers and planetary ecological collapse Richard Smith [System Change Not Climate Change] Copyright: Richard Smith, 2017 You may post comments on this paper at https://rwer.wordpress.com/comments-on-rwer-issue-no-82/ Abstract Can China lead the fight against climate change? If not, why not? Richard Smith, drawing on his forthcoming book China’s Engine of Ecological Apocalypse (Verso, 2018) argues that the built-in drivers and barriers of China’s hybrid bureaucratic- collectivist capitalism severely limit President Xi Jinping’s options, rendering his ambitions impossible and reinforcing China’s role as the world’s leading driver of global warming and thus planetary ecological collapse. Since President Trump pulled out of the Paris climate accord, there has been speculation that China could take the lead in the fight against global warming. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has certainly been eager to assume this role just as at Davos in January he championed globalisation and free trade against Trump’s nationalist posturing. At first glance, this might seem improbable. After all, China is by far the leading emitter of CO2, pumping out more emissions per year than the US, the EU, and Japan combined. Moreover, China wastes staggering quantities of energy in its inefficient industries: According to the US Energy Information Administration, China’s industries consume 7.9 times as much energy per US dollar of GDP as Japan, 5.8 times as much as the UK, and 3.9 times as much as the US.1 Though China’s GDP is still only two-thirds that of the United States, the country’s disproportionate resource consumption and out-of-control pollution mean that “China has now passed America and is now the most physically important country on the planet.
    [Show full text]
  • The Security Threat That Binds Us the Unraveling of Ecological and Natural Security and What the United States Can Do About It
    THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US THE UNRAVELING OF ECOLOGICAL AND NATURAL SECURITY AND WHAT THE UNITED STATES CAN DO ABOUT IT FEBRUARY 2021 an institute of AUTHORS EDITED BY Rod Schoonover Francesco Femia Christine Cavallo Andrea Rezzonico Isabella Caltabiano This report was prepared by the Converging Risks Lab, an institute of the Council on Strategic Risks. With generous support from the Natural Security Campaign, funded in part by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. This report should be cited as: R. Schoonover, C. Cavallo, and I. Caltabiano. “The Security Threat That Binds Us: The Unraveling of Ecological and Natural Security and What the United States Can Do About It." Edited by F. Femia and A. Rezzonico. The Converging Risks Lab, an institute of The Council on Strategic Risks. Washington, DC. February 2021. © 2021 The Council on Strategic Risks an institute of THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US THE UNRAVELING OF ECOLOGICAL AND NATURAL SECURITY AND WHAT THE UNITED STATES CAN DO ABOUT IT February 2021 Cover Photo: Top Row: (1) Heaps of overfished mackerel minnows near Andaman Sea (Tanes Ngamson/ Shutterstock), (2) Demonstrators protest over ongoing drought in La Paz, Bolivia 2017. (David Mercado/Reuters). (3) Dead bee, killed by pesticide. (RHJ Photo and illustration/Shutterstock); Bottom Row: (1) Rhino dehorned to prevent its killing, South Africa (John Michael Vosloo/ Shutterstock); (2) Malaysian and Vietnamese fishing boats destroyed by Indonesia for illegal fishing. (M N Kanwa/Antara Foto, Reuters). Background image: Aerial drone view of tropical rainforest deforestation (Richard Whitcombe/ Shutterstock). Composition by Rod Schoonover. CONTENTS 6 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 KEY FINDINGS 10 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 12 II.
    [Show full text]
  • Addressing the Ecological Determinants of Health
    Fall 08 Global Change and Public Health: Addressing the Ecological Determinants of Health THE REPORT IN BRIEF WORKING GROUP ON THE ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH APRIL 2015 Trevor Hancock, Donald W. Spady and Colin L. Soskolne (Editors) GLOBAL CHANGE AND PUBLIC HEALTH: ADDRESSING THE ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH DEDICATIONS This report is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Anthony (Tony) J. McMichael AO, Professor emeritus of Population Health at the Australian National University, who died September 26th 2014. Dr. McMichael was a brilliant environmental epidemiologist and advocate, a giant of public health, an eminent scientist, a generous mentor and a visionary leader who inspired his colleagues and generations of students Among his many accomplishments he was the leader of the Health Effects Committee of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1993 - 2001, wrote the seminal text on global ecological change and its health impacts for the general public (Planetary Overload, 1993) and made numreous other contributions to scientific and human understanding of the health implications of tobacco, the health risks from lead production, uranium mining, rubber production, and ozone depletion as well as climate change. In addition to the Order of Australia, he was an Elected member, US National Academy of Sciences; Fellow, Australian Faculty of Public Health Medicine; Honourary Professor of Climate Change and Health at University of Copenhagen; Honourary Fellow of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Fellow of Australian Academy of Technological Sciences, and a former President of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology. The report is also dedicated to Dr. John M. Last OC, Emeritus Professor of Epidemiology and Community Medicine at the University of Ottawa (and another Australian, by birth).
    [Show full text]