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Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan

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Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan Enhancing Security and Stability In Afghanistan December 2019 Report to Congress In Accordance With Section 1225 of the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015 (P.L. 113-291), as amended. The estimated cost of this report for the Department of Defense is approximately $123,000 for the Fiscal Year 2019. This includes $13,000 in expenses and $110,000,511 in DoD labor. Generated on Jun 27, 2019 RefID: E-247BED4 This page left intentionally blank This report is submitted in accordance with sections 1225 and 1532 of the Carl Levin and Howard P. "Buck" McKeon National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 (P.L. 113-291), as amended by sections 1213 and 1531 of the NDAA for FY 2016 (P.L. 114-92), Sections 1215 and 1521 of the NDAA for FY 2017 (P.L. 114-328), and sections 1215 and 1521 of the NDAA for FY 2018 (P.L. 115-91); section 1223 of the NDAA for FY 2019 (P.L. 115-232); section 1216 of the NDAA for FY 2016 (P.L. 114-92); addresses p. 348 of House Report 116-84 to accompany H.R. 2968, the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2020; and provides information sought as indicated on p. 264 of Senate Report 116-48 to accompany S. 1790, National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2020. It includes a description of the strategy of the United States for enhancing security and stability in Afghanistan, a current and anticipated threat assessment, and a description and assessment of the size, structure, strategy, budget, and financing of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. This report was prepared in coordination with the Secretary of State and is the eighth in a series of reports required semi-annually through calendar year 2020. This report describes efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from June 1, through November 30, 2019. The data cutoff date for this report is October 31, 2019. This report complements other reports and information about Afghanistan provided to Congress and is not intended to be the single source of all information about the combined efforts or the future strategy of the United States, its coalition partners, or Afghanistan. A classified annex accompanies this report. The next report will include an analysis of efforts to enhance security and stability in Afghanistan from December 1, 2019 through May 30, 2020. TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Section 1 – Strategy and Objectives ............................................................................................... 3 1.1 United States Strategy in Afghanistan .................................................................................. 3 1.2 United States Objectives in Afghanistan ............................................................................... 4 1.3 United States Counterterrorism Mission ............................................................................... 7 1.4 NATO-led Resolute Support Mission ................................................................................... 8 1.5 Peace negotiations ............................................................................................................... 14 1.6 Stewardship of United States Resources ............................................................................. 14 Section 2 – Threat Assessment ..................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Current Security Conditions ................................................................................................ 16 2.2 Mitigating Casualties in Afghanistan .................................................................................. 18 2.3 Influence of Regional Actors .............................................................................................. 22 2.4 Threats from Insurgent and Terrorist Groups ..................................................................... 25 Section 3 – Overview of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ............................... 27 3.1 ANDSF Structure And Size ................................................................................................ 27 3.2 ANDSF Objectives .............................................................................................................. 28 3.3 Progress on Developing Ministry Capacity and Capability ................................................ 31 3.4 Security of Afghan Women and Girls ................................................................................. 39 SECTION 4 – Ministry of Defense and Afghan National Army.................................................. 43 4.1 Ministry of Defense ............................................................................................................. 43 4.2 Afghan National Army ........................................................................................................ 49 Section 5 – Ministry of Interior and Afghan National Police ....................................................... 71 5.1 Ministry of Interior .............................................................................................................. 71 5.2 Afghan National Police ....................................................................................................... 76 Section 6 – Financing the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces ................................... 81 6.1 United States Contributions ................................................................................................ 81 6.2 International Contributions ................................................................................................. 82 6.3 Afghan Government Contributions ..................................................................................... 84 Annex A – Acronyms ................................................................................................................... 85 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The principal goal of the President’s South Asia Strategy is a durable and inclusive settlement to the war in Afghanistan that protects the United States homeland from terrorist attacks. During this reporting period, the United States, and Coalition Allies and partners help execute a focused military campaign against the Taliban and intensified efforts to counter ISIS-K and Al-Qaida, while paving the way for reconciliation. The Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation pursued an agreement with the Taliban. President Trump suspended formal negotiations in September 2019 citing an attack in Kabul that killed 1 U.S. Soldier and 11 others. The President has expressed support for re-opening formal negotiations, but the Taliban must demonstrate their commitment to peace and end senseless violence against Afghans, and U.S., NATO and coalition partners’ forces. USFOR-A and Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) aggressively combatted ISIS-K and other terrorist groups, successfully preventing them from developing the ability to export violence. As long as Al-Qa’ida and ISIS-K are operating in Afghanistan, maintaining U.S. military pressure on these terrorist groups is the best way to prevent their resurgence. In the fall of 2018, USFOR-A adjusted its campaign plan to intensify pressure on the Taliban to drive the group to participate in negotiations to end the Afghan war. Under the campaign plan, USFOR-A enabled the ANDSF and launched initiatives to enhance preparedness, effectiveness and responsiveness. For example, the Crisis Response Group (CRG) is a virtual network utilized by the ANDSF and Coalition that identifies imminent or occurring threats across Afghanistan and communicates them quickly up the chain of command. In addition, the Combined Situation Awareness Room (CSAR) is an operations center staffed by various elements of the ANDSF and Coalition, to create a common vision for focusing on GIROA level counterterrorism objectives. The Combined Situation Awareness Room (CSAR) speeds intelligence integration and communication, and promotes a common operating picture for ongoing operations. The additional capabilities provided by these new initiatives, coupled with USFOR-A’s sustained military pressure, helped prevent the Taliban from successfully seizing any provincial centers in 2019. During this reporting period, terrorist and insurgent groups continued to present a formidable challenge to Afghan, U.S., and Coalition forces. ISIS-K maintained the ability to conduct attacks, and sought to retain territory in eastern Afghanistan despite pressure from the Coalition, ANDSF and the Taliban. Although ISIS-K continues to develop connections to other networks outside of Afghanistan, it remains operationally limited to South and Central Asia. Al-Qa’ida poses a limited threat to U.S. personnel and our partners in Afghanistan. Al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) remains interested in attacking U.S. forces and other Western targets in Afghanistan. However, continuing U.S. counterterrorism pressure has reduced AQIS’s ability to conduct operations in Afghanistan without the support of the Taliban. The Taliban employed a “fight-and–talk” strategy with no reduction in violence for the first half of the reporting period. In the lead-up to the Afghan presidential election, the Taliban increased the scale and violence of its attacks against population centers, including indiscriminate attacks against civilians to
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