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What Players Are Worth

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What Players Are Worth What Players Are Worth We asked Vince Gennaro, a consultant to the Cleveland Indians, to calculate the revenue that players could potentially bring their teams this season. On the condition that he would not disclose information about players on the Indians, Mr. Genarro started by using a stat from BaseballProspectus.com called Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), a measure of a player’s ability to create runs (or in a pitcher’s case, to prevent runs)—and win games—compared to the contribution that could be expected from a below-average player. A WARP of 5 means a player brought his team five wins that it wouldn’t have gotten without him. Next, Mr. Gennaro determined how much incremental revenue each win would generate for a given team, based on factors like the size of the market, TV earnings and how close it is to making the playoffs. Because his approach factors in an individual team’s revenue potential—as well as its competitiveness—a player’s value can be different depending on whom he plays for. Also, most players sign multiyear contracts, so they might grow in value to a team if it improves enough to gain playoff status. $ VALUE TO 2007 2 UNDERVALUED (-) 2007 TEAM SALARY /OVERVALUED (+) PLAYER/TEAM WARP1 (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) (MILLIONS) COMMENT DEREK JETER 10 $29.2 $22 -$7.2 Mr. Jeter ranks highest in the league in “marquee value,” an attempt to New York Yankees quantify a player’s overall likeability and popularity. JERMAINE DYE 9 11.9 7 -4.9 The slugging outfielder is one of the league’s most underrated, and Chicago White Sox apparently undervalued, players. DAVID ORTIZ 8 16.1 12.5 -3.6 Mr. Ortiz, who performs well in the clutch, is one of his team's most UED Boston Red Sox critical players. But he's off to a slow start, hitting .207 as of Thursday. L CARLOS BELTRAN 10 17.4 14 -3.4 Mr. Beltran looked like a bust in his first year in New York. After his and VA New York Mets his team’s stellar 2006, he looks more like a steal. BARRY ZITO 7 12.8 10 -2.8 Mr. Zito will make $126 million over 7 years, a contract the Giants say is San Francisco Giants also about maintaining the strength of the team’s brand. GARY MATTHEWS JR. It was widely viewed that the Angels overpaid for Mr. Matthews, but UNDER 5 9 8 -1 Los Angeles Angels he might be a steal if the team makes it to the World Series. J.D. DREW 7 14.8 14 -0.8 Risk of injury is not part of the value calculation for Mr. Drew, who has a Boston Red Sox history of getting hurt. ICHIRO SUZUKI 7 11.4 11 -0.4 Mr. Suzuki's value to the Mariners is a hot topic as he plays in the final Seattle Mariners year of a four-year, $44 million contract. ALBERT PUJOLS 12 15.3 15 -0.3 Last season, no player improved his team as dramatically as Mr. Pujols St. Louis Cardinals lifted the Cardinals, by one measure. VERNON WELLS 6 5.3 5.6 +0.3 Mr. Wells recently signed a seven-year deal worth $126 million that will Toronto Blue Jays pay him $9 million in 2008. ALFONSO SORIANO 9 16.2 17 +0.8 The cellar-dwelling Cubs spent enough money this off-season to be a Chicago Cubs contender, making Mr. Soriano worth the price. BARRY BONDS 6 11.9 15.8 +3.9 The hype surrounding Mr. Bonds’ chase of the all-time home run record San Francisco Giants could draw enough fans to make him worth his paycheck. MIKE PIAZZA 3 4.2 8.5 +4.3 The A’s expect Mr. Piazza to improve his recent performance now that Oakland Athletics he doesn’t have to play catcher. GREG MADDUX 3 4.1 10 +5.9 His agent says Mr. Maddux makes his pitching staff-mates better. As San Diego Padres of Thursday, they had allowed a league-low 2.11 runs per game. GARY SHEFFIELD 7 7 13 +6 Other experts predict more than 83 wins for the Tigers, which Detroit Tigers would boost Mr. Sheffield’s value to the team. CARLOS LEE 5 6.4 14 +7.6 Mr. Lee’s $100 million contract looks excessive right now, but he could H ouston A str os prove worth the risk if the team improves. ALEX RODRIGUEZ 6 19.3 27 +7.7 Mr. Rodriguez's relatively poor 2006 season contributed to his lower New York Yankees WARP rating. But so far this year, he leads the the league in home runs. U E D L JASON SCHMIDT 6 7.4 15.5 +8.1 In the NL West, a mediocre team can win the division, which could Los Angeles Dodgers make Mr. Schmidt a good value. VA GIL MECHE 4 0.6 9 +8.4 By this measure, Mr. Meche might be overvalued, but even Cy Young ER Kansas City Royals couldn't help the Royals this year. TODD HELTON In recent years, he's been the lone high-priced star on a bad team. OV 6 5.4 16.6 +11.2 Colorado Rockies The first baseman would be more valuable to a contending team. 1 2006 WARP from Baseball Prospectus.com, except for Sheffield (2005); 2 Salaries from players' agents and MLB4U.com, and in some cases include bonuses.
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