Nutritional, Ecological, and Economic Evaluation of Dairy Farming Systems and Feeding Strategies in Semi-Arid Environments
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Aus dem Institut für Tierernährung und Stoffwechselphysiologie Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Nutritional, ecological, and economic evaluation of dairy farming systems and feeding strategies in semi-arid environments Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel vorgelegt von M.Sc. Othman Alqaisi aus Jordanien Kiel, 2013 Gedruckt mit Genehmigung der Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel Dekanin: Prof. Dr. Karin Schwarz 1. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Andreas Susenbeth 2. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. U. Latacz-Lohmann Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 6. Juli 2012 Diese Dissertation wurde dankenswerterweise vom Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienst (DAAD) gefördert Contents 1. Introduction………………………………………...……………………….…..1 2. Current situation and the development of the dairy industry in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria ……………….……………..………..…..12 3. Development of milk production and the dairy industry in Jordan …….… 31 4. Nutritional and ecological evaluation of dairy farming systems based on concentrate feeding regimes in semi-arid environment of Jordan………………………………………………….………………….….....51 5. Evaluating the use of food industry by-products as feed to improve the economic performance and mitigate GHG emissions of dairy farming systems in semi-arid areas: the case of Jordan …….….…….........86 6. General discussions……………………………………………………….…..125 7. Summary……………………………………………...….………………........136 8. Zusammenfassung…………….…………………….….…..……………….....138 II List of figures Figure 1.1 Schematic presentations of different methodological approaches of data 7 collection and analysis used in the study Figure 2.1 Map showing the main milk producing areas in Jordan, Syria, and Saudi 15 Arabia Figure 2.2 Milk production trends in Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2007 18 Figure 2.3 Projected milk production in Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan (2008 - 2012) 25 Figure 3.1 Milk production in Jordan (1996-2007) 35 Figure 3.2 Delivered milk to the dairy industry (1996-2007) 39 Figure 3.3 Imported dairy products for Jordan in 2006 41 Figure 3.4 Feed prices in Jordan and the world 44 Figure 3.5 Milk-feed price ratio in Jordan and the world 45 Figure 4.1 Farm locations and a schematic illustration of data collection and analysis 55 Figure 4.2 Monthly (mean) higher and lower temperatures in Jordan (2010) 57 Figure 4.3 Relationship between CO2 eq. emission and daily eDMI intake 70 Figure 4.4 Relationship between CO2 eq. emission and daily ECM milk yield 70 Figure 5.1 Selected performance figures of dairy farming systems in Jordan –status quo 102 Figure 5.2 Impact of alternative feeding scenarios in the large-scale farm type (JO-400) 105 Figure 5.3 Impact of alternative feeding scenarios in the medium-scale farm type (JO-80) 106 Figure 5.4 Impact of alternative feeding scenarios in the small-scale farm type (JO-5) 106 Figure 5.5 Impact of a 22% increase in feed prices on diet composition and milk 107 production costs in the large-scale farm type (JO-400) under alterantive feeding scenarios Figure 5.6 Impact of DM or energy intake reduction on the cost of milk production and 113 total CO2 eq. emissions in the large-scale farm type (sensitivity analysis) III List of tables Table 2.1 Annual changes in the dairy sectors in Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia from 2002 19 to 2007 Table 2.2 Definition of some traditional dairy products in the Middle East 24 Table 3.1 Total milk production in Jordan from different animals (1000 tons) 34 Table 3.2 Development in consumption of dairy products in Jordan 40 Table 3.3 Annual imports and exports of selected dairy products in Jordan (in 1000 tons) 42 Table 3.4 Available fodders for large animals 43 Table 3.5 Available agricultural by-products in Jordan 46 Table 3.6 Annual changes between 2002-2007 in some parameters of the dairy sector in 47 Jordan Table 4.1 Description of the analysed dairy farms 56 Table 4.2 Factors used to calculate GHGs emission from dairy farms 62 Table 4.3 Intake, chemical composition, in vitro gas yield and calculated metabolizable 65 energy , net energy for lactation , digestible organic matter contents of feed used on the farms Table 4.4 Energy and nutrient intake and requirement, milk yield and composition and fecal 68 excretion of lactating cows Table 4.5 Nitrogen and phosphorus balance 69 Table 4.6 Estimated GHGs emission 70 Table 5.1 Overview of three typical dairy farms in Jordan 91 Table 5.2 Chemical composition, in vitro gas production and metabolizable energy, net 94 energy for lactation and digestible organic matter of food industry by-product and conventional feeds used in the study Table 5.3 Review of the literature on the effect and limitations of food industry by-products 97 in ruminant diets Table 5.4 Impact of feeding scenarios and the changes in concentrate price on ingredients 111 composition of diets in the JO-400 farm Table 5.5 Cost of milk production and total CO2 eq. emissions on dairy farms under 116 alternative feeding systems and price levels IV Introduction Chapter one Introduction 1.1 Problem statement Agricultural and rural populations consist of 44.2% of inhabitants in Middle Eastern countries (AOAD 2007). Thus, the livelihood and social welfare of the largest segment of population in the region are still deeply rooted in agriculture and the rural economy. Consequently, the agricultural sector has a potentially significant role to play in achieving higher sustained growth and economic development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Milk and dairy products are very important sources of food in the Middle East due to their nutritional value. They also contribute strongly in the subsistence of a wide number of producers and families in the peri-urban and rural areas (AOAD, 2003). In the last decades, the consumption of dairy products increased at high rates. In 2010, the per capita consumption of dairy products in the MENA was estimated at 120 kg milk per capita (IFCN, 2011). From the demand side, Alqaisi (2011) reported that around 42 million tons of milk was consumed in the MENA region in 2010. A deficit of 12 million tons was estimated for the same year, with a self-sufficiency of 75% in milk production for the whole region. From the production side, milk production in 2010 has reached 30 million tons. During the period between 2005 and 2010, per capita consumption increased from 100 to 120 kg milk per capita. Increased consumption of dairy products was mainly driven by the increasing per capita income and a fast growing population, while the growth in national consumption was driven by population growth. In the same period, the gap between milk production and consumption increased from 6 to 12 million tons. This wider gap was driven by the lower production growth compared to the growth in consumption. The per capita consumption of milk is still lower than in the industrial world, but much higher than in most African, Asian and Latin American countries. 1 Introduction For example, increased consumption of dairy products was mainly influenced by the increasing per capita income and a fast growing population of 2.5%, 2.9% and 3.5% in Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, respectively, creating a growing effective demand (FAO 2003; FAO 2005; MEP 2006). The Middle East is considered as one of the world’s largest importers of dairy products from Europe, the United States and New Zealand. The region also has a strong annual growth rate of 4.6% in dairy imports (EII 2002). To reduce the region’s dependence on imported dairy products, many countries started to promote their local dairy sectors. Governments focused on modern capital-intensive large scale dairy production to supply urban consumers. This kind of production is highly dependent on huge imports of concentrate feed and fodders, particularly in the arid and semi-arid areas of the Middle East. Despite the importation of improved breeds, technology and feedstuff, regional self- sufficiency has not yet been reached. However, one of the limiting factors for the development in dairy production was the regional shortage of water and land resources. The region is endowed with limited arable land, estimated at 53 million hectares in the year 2005, with a per capita arable land of only 0.17 hectares (Siam, 2009). On the other hand, renewable fresh water resource flow amounts to 228 billion cubic metres of water annually in the MENA region, representing 0.5% of total fresh water flows on the earth. It’s well known that semi-arid and arid regions are characterized by low rainfall that results in low primary production and forage quality (Pascual et al., 2000). Grain production and grazing on pasture are limited in such areas because of the extreme shortage in water, arable land and recurrent drought. The rangelands in many countries are not sufficient for dairy cattle due to the low quality and the seasonality (ACSAD 1997). To maintain the development in milk production in MENA countries, natural resources from water and land should be secured to match the growth in milk production. Considering the shortage of these resources, the availability of pasture lands, adequate fodder and feed quantities that fulfil the needs of the sector are limited. As a result, farmers adapt to these adverse circumstances by importing the required feed resources from oversees. For example, in Jordan, in spite the importation of feed resources at high prices, the efficiency of utilisation of available feed is constrained by failure to use recommended management practices that could improve animal output. On the other hand, there are alternative feed 2 Introduction resources for dairy farming which are unused, undeveloped and poorly utilised.