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System Dynamics Model for Coal ED n° 430 : Matériaux, Ouvrages, Durabilité, Environnement et Structures T H E S E Pour obtenir le grade de Docteur de l’Ecole des Mines de Paris Spécialité : Techniques et Economie de l’Exploitation du Sous-Sol Présentée et soutenue publiquement par Ekawan RUDIANTO Le 19 décembre 2006 Charbon en Europe : quel avenir ? Perspectives de l’industrie du charbon et étude des impacts du Protocole de Kyoto devant le jury composé de : René AÏD Examinateur Christian BUHROW Rapporteur Michel DUCHENE Examinateur Damien GOETZ Examinateur Jan PALARSKI Président Robert PENTEL Examinateur T H E S E Pour obtenir le grade de Docteur de l’Ecole des Mines de Paris Spécialité : Techniques et Economie de l’Exploitation du Sous-Sol Présentée et soutenue publiquement par Ekawan RUDIANTO Le 18 décembre 2006 SUJET DE LA THESE Charbon en Europe : Quel Avenir ? Perspectives de l’industrie du Charbon et étude des impacts du Protocole de Kyoto Directeur de thèse : Mr. Michel DUCHENE Jury : M. Jan PALARSKI Président M. Christian BUHROW Rapporteur M. René AÏD Examinateur M. Robert PENTEL Examinateur M. Michel DUCHENE Directeur de thèse M Damien GOETZ Co-Directeur de thèse ii THESIS Submitted to Ecole des Mines de Paris L’ÉCOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS by Ekawan RUDIANTO In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of DOCTEUR DE L’ÉCOLE NATIONALE SUPERIEURE DES MINES DE PARIS Specialisation : Techniques et Economie de l’Exploitation du Sous-Sol COAL IN EUROPE: WHAT FUTURE? Prospects of the coal industry and impacts study of the Kyoto Protocol Thesis Supervisor Professor Michel DUCHENE Professor Damien GOETZ Centre de Géosciences - Ecole des Mines de Paris 35 rue Honoré - 77305 Fontainebleau Cedex iii Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future Niels Bohr Danish physicist (1885 - 1962) iv Pour Wieke, Dimas et Dinand v Acknowledgement I would like to gratefully and sincerely thank Prof. Michel DUCHENE for his guidance, understanding, patience, and most importantly, his friendship during my studies at Centre de Geoscience – Ecole des Mines de Paris. His mentorship was paramount in providing a well rounded experience consistent my long-term career goals. He gave fully autonomy to finish this These and encouraged me to not only an instructor but also an independent researcher. I am not sure many graduate students are given the opportunity to develop their own individuality and self-sufficiency by being allowed to work with such independence. For everything you’ve done for me, Michel, I thank you. I would also like to thank all of the members of the Centre de Geoscience - ENMSP, especially Prof. Damien GOETZ for giving me the opportunity to do research at ENMP. These two friends and co-workers also provided for some much needed encouragement in what could have otherwise been a somewhat stressful laboratory environment. I would also like to thank Prof. Michel TIJANI for his guidance in getting my post-graduate career started on the right foot and providing me with the foundation for becoming a researcher. Additionally, I am very grateful for the friendship of all of the members of Centre de Geoscience, with whom I worked closely and puzzled over many of the same problems. I would like to thank the members of my doctoral committee, Prof. Palaski, Prof. Buhrow, Dr. Aid, Dr. Pentel, for their input, valuable discussions and accessibility. Finally, and most importantly, I would like to thank my wife Wieke Widayani and my sons Dimas and Dinan. Their support, encouragement, quiet patience and unwavering love were undeniably the bedrock upon which the past years of my life have been built. Her tolerance of my occasional vulgar moods is a testament in itself of her unyielding devotion and love. I thank my parents for their faith in me and allowing me to be as ambitious as I wanted. It was under their watchful eye that I gained so much drive and an ability to tackle challenges head on. vi Abstract From the industrial revolution to the 1960s, coal was massively consumed in Europe and its utilization was constantly raised. In the aftermath of World War II, coal had also an important part in reconstruction of Western Europe’s economy. However, since the late 1960s, its demand has been declining. There is a (mis)conception from a number of policy makers that saying coal mining and utilizations in Europe is unnecessary. Therefore in the European Union (EU) Green Paper 2000, coal is described as an “undesirable” fuel and the production of coal on the basis of economic criteria has no prospect. Furthermore, the commitment to the Kyoto Protocol in reducing greenhouse gases emission has aggravated this view. Faced with this situation, the quest for the future of coal industry (mining and utilization) in the lines of an energy policy is unavoidable. This dissertation did a profound enquiry trying to seek answers for several questions: Does the European Union still need coal? If coal is going to play a part in the EU, where should the EU get the coal from? What should be done to diminish negative environmental impacts of coal mining and utilization? and finally in regard to the CO2 emission concerns, what will the state of the coal industry in the future in the EU? To enhance the analysis, a system dynamic model, called the Dynamics Coal for Europe (the DCE) was developed. The DCE is an Energy-Economy-Environment model. It synthesizes the perspectives of several disciplines, including geology, technology, economy and environment. It integrates several modules including exploration, production, pricing, demand, import and emission. Finally, the model emphasizes the impact of delays and feed-back in both the physical processes and the information and decision-making processes of the system. The calibration process for the DCE shows that the model reproduces past numbers on the scale well for several variables. Based on the results of this calibration process, it can be argued that the DCE model can be used to do a forecasting for examining long-term behavior of coal industry in the EU-15. Finally, the algorithm and modules construction for the DCE model can be used to construct a model for other non- renewable energy sources for Europe. Keywords: Coal, Kyoto Protocol, System Dynamics model Résumé Au cours de la période allant de la révolution industrielle aux années 60, le charbon a été massivement consommé en Europe et son utilisation s’est constamment accrue. Après la deuxième guerre mondiale, le charbon a joué également un rôle important dans la reconstruction de l'économie de l’Europe de l'ouest. Il faut noter cependant que la demande de charbon a commencé à décliner depuis le début des années 1960. Il en résulte de la part de certains décideurs une tendance à dire que l'extraction du charbon et son utilisation en Europe sont inutiles. Par conséquent, dans le livre vert de l’union européen 2000 (UE), le charbon est décrit comme un carburant «indésirable», et en se basant sur des critères économiques, sa production n'a aucune perspective. En outre, l'engagement du protocole de Kyoto dans la réduction de l'émission des gaz à effet de serre a aggravé cette perception. Face à cette situation, un nouveau débat sur l’avenir de l'industrie du charbon (extraction et utilisation) dans la perspective d'une politique énergétique communautaire est inévitable. Cette dissertation a fait une enquête profonde en vue d’apporter des réponses à plusieurs questions. L'union européenne a-t-elle toujours besoin du charbon ? Si le charbon est appelé à jouer un rôle au sein de l’UE, d'où proviendrait-il? Que devrait-on faire pour diminuer les incidences négatives sur l'environnement consécutives à l'extraction du charbon et de son utilisation ? Finalement, au regard des soucis d'émission de CO2, quelle sera la situation de l'industrie du charbon dans l'avenir au sein de l’UE ? vii Pour approfondir l’analyse, un modèle dynamique de système appelé « The Dynamics Coal for Europe” (DCE) a été développé. Le DCE est un modèle qui prend en compte trois dimensions : l'énergie, l’économie, et l’environnement. Il s’appuie sur plusieurs disciplines telles que : la géologie, la technologie, l'économie et l'environnement. Il intègre plusieurs modules comprenant l'exploration, la production, l'évaluation, la demande, l'importation et l'émission du CO2. En conclusion, le modèle met l’accent sur l'impact du temps de réaction (retard et recto-action) sur deux processus : physique (par exemple le temps pour faire l’exploration du charbon) et de l'information. Le procédé de calibrage pour le DCE prouve que le modèle reproduit le même résultat que les données réelles. Basé sur les résultats de ce procédé de calibrage, il se peut que le modèle de DCE puisse être employé pour faire des prévisions pour examiner le comportement à long terme de l'industrie du charbon dans l'EU-15. Finalement, l'algorithme et la construction de modules pour le modèle de DCE peuvent être employés pour construire un modèle pour d'autres sources d'énergie non-renouvelables pour l'Europe. Mots-clés : Le charbon, protocole de Kyoto, modèle dynamique du système viii TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgments iv Abstract vii Table of Contents ix List of Figures xii List of Tables xvii Introduction xix Background to the problem xix Research objective xxiv Research approach xxiv Dissertation structure xxv PART I: Coal in Europe: What Future? Chapter 1: Coal as Energy Systems 1.1 Introduction to coal 1.1.1. What is coal ………………………………………………………………….. 1 1.1.2. Origin of coal ………………………………………………………………… 2 1.1.3. Coalification ………………………………………………………………….. 3 1.1.4. Classification …………………………………………………………………. 3 1.1.4.1.
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