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EUR 30618 EN This Publication Is a Science for Policy Report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’S Science and Knowledge Service EUR 30618 EN This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. Contact information Name: Jose Moya Address: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755 ZG Petten, The Netherlands Email: [email protected] Tel.: +31 22456-5244 JRC Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC123508 EUR 30618 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-30987-1 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/510714 Print ISBN 978-92-76-31019-8 ISSN 1018-5593 doi:10.2760/975966 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021 © European Union, 2021 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content© European Union, 2021, except: - Cover page: adaptation from ©Hurca! AdobeStock, ©SimpLine AdobeStock. All maps have been created with QGIS 3.10 using the ‘NUTS 2021’ and ‘Countries 2021‘ datasets from GISCO- Eurostat (European Commission): © EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/administrative-units-statistical-units). How to cite this report: Kapetaki, Z., Alves Dias, P., Conte, A., Kanellopoulos, K., Mandras, G., Medarac. H., Nijs, W., Ruiz, P., Somers, J., Tarvydas, D., Recent trends in EU coal, peat and oil shale regions, EUR 30618 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2021, ISBN 978-92-76-30987-1, doi:10.2760/510714, JRC123508. Recent trends in EU coal, peat and oil shale regions The European coal sector employs nearly 340 000 people in direct and indirect activities. By 2030, it is estimated that between 54 000 and 112 000 direct jobs may be lost. The peat and oil shale sectors for energy are smaller than the coal sector in Europe. We estimate that there are nearly 12 000 direct and indirect peat- related jobs in the countries of focus, while oil shale-related jobs total nearly 7 000 in Estonia, the only Member State with such activities. With no concrete plans on oil shale use and limited interdependency of direct jobs to peat as a fuel, the impact on jobs in these sectors appears very limited. Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 5 2 The current status of coalpeat and oil shale mining ................................................ 7 2.1 Coal ........................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Operating coal mines in the EU .............................................................. 7 2.1.1.1 Coal mine production at NUTS 2 level ............................................. 10 2.1.1.2 Coal mine productivity at NUTS 2 level ........................................... 12 2.1.2 Operating coal-fired power plants in the EU........................................... 13 2.1.3 Direct employment in coal power plants and mines ................................ 18 2.1.3.1 Direct jobs in coal-fired power plants .............................................. 18 2.1.3.2 Direct jobs in coal mining .............................................................. 20 2.1.3.3 Overall assessment of current direct employment ............................ 22 2.2 Peat ......................................................................................................... 25 2.2.1 Operating fuel peat extraction sites in the EU-27 ................................... 28 2.3 Oil shale ................................................................................................... 37 2.3.1 Operating oil shale extraction sites and power plants in the EU ................ 38 2.3.2 Direct employment in oil shale-fired power plants and sites .................... 40 2.4 Indirect jobs in coal, peat and oil shale-related activities ................................ 41 2.5 Key points ................................................................................................ 47 3 Changes in coal mining and coal power generation up to 2020 .............................. 50 3.1 Mine closures since 2010 ............................................................................ 50 3.2 Changes in coal production between 2015 and 2018 (comparison to the previous report) ........................................................................................................... 53 3.3 The evolution of coal mining employment since 2010 ..................................... 55 3.3.1 Variation of direct employment in coal mining regions between 2015 and 2018 (comparison to the previous report) ....................................................... 56 3.4 Retired coal-fired generation capacity between 2016 and 2020 ....................... 58 3.5 Direct employment lost in coal power plants ................................................. 58 3.6 Key points ................................................................................................ 60 4 Possible future developments of coal, peat and oil shale activities .......................... 61 4.1 Coal, peat and oil shale use in energy scenarios ............................................ 61 4.2.1 Coal mines ........................................................................................ 64 4.2.1.1 Performance of operating coal mines and potential impacts on employment ............................................................................................ 64 4.2.1.2 Announced mine closures and impacts of power plant decommissioning on mining employment ............................................................................. 65 i 4.2.1.3 Announced expansions and exploration developments ...................... 67 4.2.2 Peat and oil shale sites ....................................................................... 68 4.3 Impacts of power plant retirement on employment ........................................ 69 4.3.1 A snapshot of European coal power plants – age and new entries ............ 69 4.3.2 Expected coal fleet decommissioning .................................................... 70 4.3.3 Risk for job losses in power plants at national level ................................ 70 4.3.4 Risk for job losses in power plants at NUTS 2 regional level .................... 71 4.4 Impacts on overall direct employment in the coal sector ................................. 72 4.4.1 Potential job losses between 2020 and 2030 ......................................... 72 4.4.2 Potential job losses against total current jobs ........................................ 74 4.5 Peat and oil shale: potential impacts on employment ..................................... 75 4.6 Key points ................................................................................................ 77 5 Mapping of carbon-intensive industries ............................................................... 78 5.1 Overall coal consumption in carbon-intensive industry .................................... 78 5.2 Coal consumption by industry in coal regions ................................................ 82 5.3 Peat and oil shale consumption by industry ................................................... 85 5.4 Key points ................................................................................................ 86 References ......................................................................................................... 88 List of abbreviations and definitions ....................................................................... 92 List of boxes ....................................................................................................... 93 List of figures ...................................................................................................... 94 List of tables ....................................................................................................... 96 Appendices ......................................................................................................... 97 A. Coal-fired power plant capacity in EU Member States, aggregated at NUTS 2 level 97 B. Coal mines in EU Member States by NUTS 2 region ...................................... 100 C. Distribution of 2018 direct jobs in coal activities in the NUTS 2 regions .......... 102 D. Coefficient used in determining direct jobs in power plants ........................... 105 E. Methodology behind the estimation of indirect employment .......................... 106 F. Number of coal indirect jobs at NUTS 2 ...................................................... 107 G. Coal power plants under construction
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