Comprehensive Planning Workshop Spring 2010 Niehoff Urban Studio 2008-2010 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Executive Summary This report is a collective presentation of the studio process undertaken by the University of Cincinnati’s School of Planning 2010 Spring Comprehensive Workshop. The focus of the workshop was the Mill Creek Watershed, a 166 square mile area in southwestern Ohio. The Watershed has reached a critical state due to a multitude of both internal and external factors including industrial flight, environmental degradation, building vacancies, unemployment, auto dependence, and a worsening national economy. While numerous organizations construct and implement plans for the future of the Watershed, a lack of regional collaboration often results in little progress. Over the past century, the Mill Creek brought industry and increased population to the Watershed area. Today, the Mill Creek still remains a valuable natural asset. Urbanization has taken its toll, however, and both water quality and riparian corridor health have suffered. Another area of concern is the loss of population in the City of Cincinnati, and corresponding redistribution to the suburbs. Limited transportation options have worsened this outmigration by encouraging auto dependence. Social and environmental justice issues coincide with declining economic and environmental conditions in the Mill Creek Watershed. Due to its uncertain future, planning in the Mill Creek Watershed requires the consideration of multiple possibilities for how the area will transform. This Workshop used the scenario planning approach to establish four plausible outcomes for the Watershed. Scenario planning seeks to open discussions about how things may unfold, providing the opportunity for individuals and organizations to look beyond their individual plans and concerns for the future. The scenarios were created around an axis meant to delineate four combinations of two circumstances, the state of the national economy and regional governance and cohesion. Choice of these circumstances was driven by the results of deliberation sessions whereby students represented various actors and stakeholders in the Mill Creek Watershed. The horizontal axis represents the national state of the economy, ranging from worsening to improving economic conditions. The national economy is an external variable that cannot be controlled by individuals or organizations in the Watershed. The vertical axis represents the level of regional governance and collaboration within the Mill Creek Watershed. This variable is internal to the Watershed since organizations can influence the extent of collaboration by their University of Cincinnati School of Planning/College of DAAP I Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project actions. Based on the axis, four scenario teams were established to represent each of the four combinations. The four teams are “Green Phoenix,” “Factions Speak Louder than Words,” “The Queen is Dead,” and “Kindness in Crisis.” Each team created a statement of conditions of the Watershed in 2030, with differing outcomes depending on the scenario’s particular position on the axis. Fictional characters and narratives were created to portray each scenario in a relatable way. In addition, each team produced a comprehensive plan extending to 2050, based on 2030 scenario assumptions. The baseline scenario team looked to 2020 and assumed no change in current conditions over the next ten years. This group also created the templates for the final report and poster designs. Also, they compiled the reports from each scenario team to create this comprehensive document. The four scenarios portray varying pictures for the state of the Mill Creek Watershed in 2030. These scenarios give residents and organizations an opportunity to envision plausible futures, rather than moving forward passively. Since the Watershed crosses over multiple jurisdictional boundaries, a regional approach to governance is needed. Interestingly, regional collaboration is the common circumstance shared by “Green Phoenix” and “Kindness in Crisis,” the two scenarios that indicate more hopeful futures for the Watershed. Thus, with regional collaboration, the Mill Creek Watershed has the potential to come together in a united effort to positively shape its future. II Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................... I TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................... II ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................... III INTRODUCTION ................................................. 1 EXISTING CONDITIONS ........................................ 7 BASELINE SCENARIO ...................................... 32 SCENARIOS The Queen is Dead ................................. 36 Factions Speak Louder than Words .......... 67 Kindness in Crisis .................................... 99 The Green Phoenix ................................. 119 CONCLUSION .................................................... 148 REFERENCES ...................................................... 150 APPENDIX ......................................................... 151 University of Cincinnati School of Planning/College of DAAP III Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Acknowledgements This Comprehensive Planning Workshop would like to thank the following for their efforts in bringing this project to fruition: Robin Corathers, Executive Director of the Mill Creek Restoration Project and Guest Reviewer Terry Grundy, Adjunct Faculty and Guest Reviewer Susan Hilvert, for her expertise in film and claymation Niehoff Studio and Staff, for tolerating us all twelve weeks And the countless number of people interviewed for their opinions and local expertise iv Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Introduction & Background The story of disparate, divided communities is a timeless one. Rudyard Kipling, Charles Dickens and others have related stories of when “East is East and West is West” and “A Tale of Two Cities.” Social, economic, and cultural divides may be prevalent in our litera- ture, but they need not guide our lived experiences. Divisiveness is not a predetermined fate. Communities, like the Mill Creek Watershed, retain the power to control and influ- ence the direction of their own futures. Source: http://www.wallpapers-free.org/wallpapers/63/John_A_Roebling_Suspension_Bridge_and_Cincinnati_Skyline_-_ wallpaper_travels.jpg University of Cincinnati School of Planning/College of DAAP 1 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project INTRODUCTION The story of disparate, divided communities is a timeless one. Rudyard Kipling, Charles Dickens and others have related stories of when “East is East and West is West” and “A Tale of Two Cities.” Social, economic, and cultural divides may be prevalent in our literature, but they need not guide our lived experiences. Divisiveness is not a predetermined fate. Communities, like the Mill Creek Watershed, retain the power to control and influence the direction of their own futures. The Watershed is currently at a crossroads and faced with an uncertain future. It has steadily declined throughout much of the twentieth century, but through the efforts of many committed governmental and nonprofit organizations, the Watershed can grow in a positive direction. The following report provides an understanding of the current state of the Mill Creek Watershed and outlines four plausible futures. These scenarios are not predictions, rather they are meant to be thought provoking and allow the residents and stakeholders in the Mill Creek Watershed to consider the future of this area, and by translation their own future. History of the Mill Creek Watershed The Mill Creek Watershed (shown in Figure 1 below) occupies 166 square miles within Butler and Hamilton Counties. It includes 43 of the City of Cincinnati’s 52 neighborhoods, several jurisdictions in Hamilton County, the southeast portion of Butler County, and is home to the Mill Creek, one of the most polluted and endangered urban rivers in the United States (Mill Creek Restoration Project). The Mill Creek is not a source of drinking water for the Watershed’s population; however, it empties into the Ohio River, which is one of the Watershed’s primary sources of drinking water. The current state of the Watershed evolved over time, requiring a brief overview of the history of the area in order to gain a full understanding of the existing conditions and the planning process conducted in the Comprehensive Workshop. Figure 1: Map of the Mill Creek Watershed The earliest settlers of the Mill Creek Watershed utilized the area for agricultural purposes and saw 2 Mill Creek Watershed Scenario Project Spring 2010 and gristmills. In order to build the mills, large trees were cut down; this resulted in deforestation and destroyed 85 percent of the original woodland by 1881 (Hedeen 1994, 30). The early economic development of the Watershed also required transportation. The Watershed was an ideal location for river transportation due to its river access and flat topography. Cincinnati’s location on the Ohio River, the advent of the steamboat, and the construction of the Miami and Erie Canals in 1829 helped spur industrial development. The introduction of the canal system to the Watershed increased the Mill Creek’s flow by 35 percent, improving