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Club Du Sahel OECD CI.SS ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC PERMANENT INTERSTATE COMMITTEE CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT FOR DROUGHT CONTROL IN THE SAHEL CLUB DU SAHEL SAHEL D(.83) 221 July 1983 Or.: French DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFED AG;RICULTURE IN THE SAHEL OVERVIEW AND PROSPECTS FIFTH CONFERENCE OF THE CLUB DU SAHEL Brussels, 26-27-28 October 1983 DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFED AGRICULTURE IN THE SAHEL OVERVIEW AND PROSPECTS 16263 TABLE OF CONTENTS Pages SUMMARY..................................................... INTRODUCTION .............................................. I - THE POSITION OF RAINFED AGRICULTURE 3 1.1 - DATA UNCERTAINTIES .............................. 3 1.2 - THE ROLE OF RAINFED AGRICULTURE ................ 4 Rainfed agriculture and population employed... 4 Rainfed agriculture and acreage cultivated .... 4 Rainfed agriculture and food production ....... 4 Rainfed agriculture and exports ................ 5 1.3 - CEREALS AND CASH CROPS .......................... 5 1.4 - TRENDS IN CEREAL CROPS .......................... 7 Production growth ............................... 7 Vulnerability to climatic factors ............. 9 Productivity and yields ........................ 10 1.5 - TREND OF OTHER TYPES OF RAINFED CROPS ........ 11 Groundnuts ...................................... 11 Cotton .......................................... 12 Other Crops ..................................... 13 1.6 - TRENDS IN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS ................... 14 Selected seeds .................................. 14 Fertilizers ..................................... 14 Pesticides and plant protection ................ 15 Use of animal traction ......................... 16 1.7 - THE PROBLEM OF LAND ............................ 17 1.8 - CEREAL MARKETING AND IMPORTS ................... 17 II - DEVELOPMENT POLICIES 19 2.1 - THE ORGANISATION OF DEVELOPMENT ............. 19 2.2 - THE MARKETING OF INPUTS ....................... 20 2.3 - MARKETING OF PRODUCTS ......................... 22 2.4 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT ........................... 23 2.5 - TRAINING ....................................... 24 2.6 - RESEARCH ....................................... 25 III - PROSPECTS 27 3.1 - THE PRESENT SYSTEM ENTERING A DEAD END ...... 27 3.2 - THE SAHEL'S RESOURCES ARE GREATER THAN ITS NEEDS .......................................... 28 IV - PROPOSALS FOR THE FUTURE 31 4.1 - A NEW APPROACH ................................. 31 4.2 - THE ORGANISATION OF DEVELOPMENT ............. 32 4.3 - LAND POLICY .................................... 33 4.4 - AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH ......................... 34 4.5 - TRAINING ....................................... 35 4.6 - SUPPLY OF INPUTS .............................. 36 4.7 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT ........................... 38 4.8 - PRICE, MARKETING AND STORAGE POLICIES ....... 39 4.9 - THE DESIGN, EXECUTION AND FINANCING OF DEVELOPMENT OPERATIONS ........................ 40 - iii - SUMMARY The programme/overviews undertaken in the Sahel States in 1981 and 1982 by the Secretariats of the CILSS and the Club du Sahel analysed the development of rainfed agriculture in the Sahel. Despite the poor reliability of data available on rainfed agri­ culture and the differences, and even contradictions, between data sources, the following picture can be given: - Rainfed agriculture employs more than half of the active popu­ lation in the Sahel and covars over 96% of the cultivated area. Providing 95% of the cereals produced and being one of the three pillars of the region's exports, along with livestock and mining, rainfed agriculture plays a capital role in the Sahel economy. - Three major facts appear for cereal crops: • production does not follow the growth of needs, from either a quantitative or a qualitative point of view; cereal imports (commercial imports and food aid) are on a constant upward trend; towns are increasingly depen­ dant on foreign sources for grain supplies; " Production remains very vulnerable to climatic conditions; • farm productivity and land yields are stagnating at a very low level; although progress has recently been ob­ served in the use of modern production factors (animal traction, fertilizers), they are still used in very limited amounts. - As regards export crops: * groundnuts reached a peak in 1975 and since then, pro­ duction has been dc:reasing; * cotton has been developed to a large extent and has shown a spectacular increase in yields, but production has reached its ceiling, and may even have decreased in the last two or three years. - With stagnating cereal production, population growth is making new lands scarce in certain regions and already over­ worked soil is degradating. In sum, the overview of rainfed agriculture reveals a critical situation. Despite encouraging but often isolated progress, the main trends are disquieting: the region is not moving towards food self-sufficiency, and rainfed agriculture is playing a decreasing role in the Sahelian economy. - iv - Turning to the future, and taking and rural an average hypothesis of urban population growth, it can be seen that each had 2.8 mouths to farmer who feed in 1980 will have 3.6 in the year 2000. The prospects are quite clear: - should productivity and land yields remain stagnant there will be a four-fold increase in cereal imports The Sahel will over twenty years. become increasingly dependent and will largely have used up its land capital sources; - should there be a significant increase in productivity and yields through improved methods (a productivity per roughly 1.4% increase in year) the cereals deficit will be at least stabilised and land dete:ioration checked. The programme/overviews show that resources the Sahel has the necessary to achieve the second alternative. However, a new approach to to do so, the development of rainfed agriculture is needed. The programme/overviews have set out some suggestions which are very (many of rich) for this new approach. The main suggestions can be summarized under two broad headings: Rather than asking rural populations to participate in develop­ ment projects which have been drawn up ment assistance without them, develop­ should be considered as assistance to projects whose roots lie in the rural world. This implies a thorough change in the structures of agricultural development, a new approach to drawing projects, them up and implementing etc. It necessitates a major effort world to express to help the rural its ideas, create and manage its own structures, and use them as a development tool. The Sahel governments and aid sources must play an active part in this change. Creating an environment favourable to the success of projects: Past experience shows that the only projects of success that have a chance are those which generate farmers' interest. often been the case This has for export crops, almost never so for cereal crops. This dis-symmetry must be progressively conditions created reduced and the to promote the development of cereal crops. This pre-supposes an overall policy, covering in particular: - the search for more efficient production systems and their widespread introduction, - the creation of efficient input distribution systems, - V ­ - the access of farmers to credit, and - the guarantee that farmers can sell their cereal production at an attractive price that is compatible with the cost of inputs. Food strategies must be directed at remodeling marketing systems and protecting national markets against low-cost cereal imports, etc. This will not always be easy and will necessitate substantial aid from the International Community. Nevertheless, the creation of an evnironment favourable to the success of projects originat­ ing to a large extent from the rural world itself is the sine qua non for moving forward towards food self-sufficiency. Two key concepts emerge from the programme overviews: re­ habilitation of the rural world and the development of cereal policies. - 1 - INTRODUCTI ON A series of investigations undertaken in the Sahel in 1979 pro­ duced an overview of the development of irrigated agriculture in the region together with proposals for the future of these crops. Sahel leaders and donors alike recognised the value of the report in which the overview and prospects were set out. The participants in the 4th Conference of the Club du Sahel (Kuwait, 1980) asked for a similar report covering rainfed acri­ culture. In 1981 and 1982, the Secretariats of the CILSS and the Club du Sahel organised missions to upper Volta, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal and Cape Verde, and produced a set of country reports. The study on the Gambia was started only in early 1983, and this report will be published soon. It has not yet been possible to begin investigations in Chad. The five published national documents provide an extremely rich fund of information. They describe the present position of rain­ fed agriculture and recent trends, and make a thorough examina­ tion of the obstacles to the development of these crops, the policies pursued, the structures developed and the projects im­ plemented, with substantive proposals for future action. Analyses of this kind had never previously been published. Given the constraints specific to each country, the national re­ ports have generally not gone into specifics as regards the pro­ gramming of future projects. However, the analyses and the recommendations drawn from them will no doubt prove invaluable to national executives in preparing future policies and projects. In addition to the interest of the overviews at country level, the Secretariats of the CILSS
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