INTERNATIONAL CONSULTING DIVISION CHEMONICS AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY REFORM PROGRAM: DESIGN OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING SYSTEM Contract No. PDC-5517-I-00-0103-00 Delivery Order No. 13 Submitted to: USAID N'Djamdna, Chad Submitted by: Chemonics International 2000 M Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 Joy Hecht, Environmental and Regional Planner G. Edward Karch, Forestry Resources Specialist Scotty Deffendol, Range Management Specialist Joseph A. Tabor, Agriculture and Soil Science Specialist James Keith, Wildlife Conservation Specialist Robert Hanchett, Regional Environmental Officer, REDSO/WCA Darrel Plowes, Biodiversity Specialist June 10, 1993 2000 M at., N.W. Tali (202 466-5340 or 293-1176 Bulte 200 Fax: (202)331-8202 Wamhington, D.C. 20036 ITT Tolelt 1440361 CHNC UT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ili SECTION I INTRODUCTION I-1 A. Description of ATPRP I-1 B. Monitoring the Environmental Impacts of ATPRP Reforms 1-2 C. Why monitor? 1-3 C1. Overview 1-4 SECTION 11 THE NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT INDICATORS FRAMEWORK 1-1 A. The Framework 11-1 B. Application of the NRM Indicators Framework to ATPRP 11-2 SECTION III IMPA CTS OF ATPRP REFORMS rI-i A. Will Policy Reforms Occur? rn-1 B. How Will Policy Reforms Affect Agricultural Output? rn-1 C. How Will Increased Output Affect the Environment? f11-5 Ci. Cultivation of New Land and Shortened Fallows MI-5 C2. Increased Use of Agrochemicals 111-5 C3. Increased Income Mn-6 D. How Will Tariff Reforms Affect Truck Use? 111-6 E. How Will Increased Trucking Affect the Environment? 111-7 SECTION IV STRATEGIES FOR ADDRESSING MONITORING AND MITIGATION IV-1 A. Conventional Ecological Monitoring IV-1 Al. Land Use/Land Cover IV-1 A2. Water Quality IV-2 A3. Wildlife Populations IV-2 B. Monitoring IV-2 B1. Conventional Monitoring Systems IV-2 B2. Targeted Monitoring IV-3 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) C. Mitigation IV-4 D. Multi-step Monitorig IV-6 E. Long-term Monitoring IV-8 F. Conclusion IV-9 SECTION V MULTI-STEP MONITORING PLAN V-1 A. Linking Impact mid Environmental Monitoring V-1 B. Timing the Monitoring Activity V-1 C. Step 1: The Statistical Survey V-2 D. Step 2: Impacts of Agricultural Expansion on Vegetation and Habitat V-4 Dl. Expanding Cultivation and Shortened Fallows V-5 D2. Increased Use of Inputs V-8 E. Step 3: Impacts of Pollution or Hajitat Degradation on Wildlife V-9 El. Pollution V-9 E2. Habitat Degradation V-I F. Monitoring Schedule V-11 G. Institutional Structure and Staffing V-12 H. Cost Estimates V-14 SECTION VI CONCLUSION: IMPLICATIONS FOR AID VI-I A. The Problem V1.l B. Monitoring-What For and How Much? VI-1 C. Mitigation-To What End, and At What Cost? VI-2 D. Timing VI-3 E. Conclusion VI-3 BIBLIOGRAPHY VI-4 ANNEX A AGRICULTURE AND SOILS A-I ANNEX B RANGELAND RESOURCES B-1 ANNEX C FOREST RESOURCES IN CHAD C-1 ANNEX D WATER D-1 ANNEX E WILDLIFE CONSIDERATIONS E-1 ANNEX F PERSONS CONTACTED; SCOPE OF WORK F-1 LIST OF ACRONYMS AID (U.S.) Agency for International Development ASECNA Agence pour la S~curit6 de la Navigation en Afrique et I Madagascar ATPRP Agricultural Trade Policy Reform Program/Project B.E.T. Bourkou-Ennedi-Tibesti CAR Central African Republic CBLT Commission du Bassin du Lac Tchad CIRAD Centre International de Recherche sur l'Agriculture et le Ddveloppement CTA/PDLCD Cellule Technique d'Appui Ala Mise en Oeuvre du Plan Directeur de Lutte Contre la Dosertification DESV Direction de l'Elevage et des Services Vdtrinaires DFA Development Fund for Africa DREM Direction des Ressources en Eau et de la Mdt6orologie EC European Community FAC Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation FED Fonds Europden de Ddveloppement FEWS Famine Early Warning System GIS geographic information system GOC Government of Chad GPS global positioning system ICBP International Council for Bird Preservation IPM integrated pest management IRCT Institut de Recherche sur le Coton et le Textile IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature LCBC Lake Chad Basin Commission MMERE Ministre des Mines, de l'Energie, et des Ressources en Eau NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NGO non-governmental organization NPA non-project assistance NRM natural resources management OAU Organization for African Unity ONDR Office National de Ddveloppement Rural ORSTOM Organisation de Recherche Scientifique et Technique en Outre-Mer PAAD Program Assistance Approval Document PASET Projet d'Appui au Secteur d'Equipements ' t des Transports PVO private voluntary organization PVO/DIP Private Voluntary Organization/Development Initiatives Program RRR rapid rural reconnaissance UDEAC Union Douanibre des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNSO United Nations Sudano-Sahelian Office i USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture VT village territory i EXECUTIVE SUAEMARY The Agricultural Trade Policy Reform Program (ATPRP) is designed to increase the efficiency of Chad's agricultural marketing system for non-industrial crops, by encouraging tariff and regulatory reforms and by helping traders and farmers take advantage of resulting economic opportunities. The reforms focus on several areas: * Reduction of import duties on agricultural inputs, trucks, and spare parts within UDEAC, the regional customs union * Elimination of export duties on agricultural production, including those imposed by prefectures * Liberalization of export licensing procedures for agricultural products Linked to this program is an effort to track the environmental impacts of ATPRP reforms, which forms the subject of this report and its annexes. Monitoring the environmental effects of a set of policy reforms is not an easy task, even when reliable time-series data on the economy and the natural environment are available. Moreover, ATPRP reforms have been proposed as part of a package of interventions, including road construction, direct project support for agricultural marketing, etc. These interventions are complementary, so it may not be possible to identify the impact of each one separately. The general approach we take in this report is to identify a series of causal links through which ATPRP reforms may affect the environment. First, the tariff and regulatory reforms are expected to stimulate agricultural production, either through extensification onto currently uncultivated land, through shortening fallow cycles on cultivated land, or through introducing chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Second, extensification onto uncultivated land and shortened fallow cycles cn destroy or degrade natural vegetation. Chemical fertilizers and pesticides will enter the water table, the rivers, and critical lakes such as Lake Chad. Third, degraded vegetation will reduce wildlife habitat and populations. Water pollution could lead to environmental harm through several mechanisms: direct poisoning of animals or humans, poisoning of species low in the food chain reducing the food supply to other species, excess fertilizer creating algal blooms that eventually decrease oxygen supply available to other aquatic species, and so on. The ecological systems of these lakes ii are delicate and poorly understood, so we can only roughly approximate the precise impacts of increased agrochemical use. In addition to the impacts on agriculture, liberalizing truck imports should lower trucking costs, which would lower the cost of fuelwood and potentially result in more rapid forest degradation around urban areas. The report considers five different strategies for monitoring or mitigating these effects. One is conventional ecological monitoring-simply tracking trends in the environment over time-its major drawback is that it does not establish a relationship between changes in the environment and ATPRP policy reforms. A second strategy is targeted monitoring-tracking the villages and farmers most likely to be affected by ATPRI' reforms. This approach addresses the causal link, but does not show the magnitude of the impacts. A third strategy is simply to mitigate environmental harms without attempting to monitor them, the logic being that it is difficult and costly to show actual impacts, so resources are better spent on direct prevention or mitigation. This strategy, however, raises a wide range of questions about what mitigation is intended to accomplish and how mitigation activities could be designed. The fourth strategy breaks the monitoring effort into three independent, simultaneous steps, each corresponding to one link in the causal chain between ATPRP policy reforms and the environment. This has the advantage of making it possible to establish a causal connection between ATPRP and the environment, even though that impact will not actually occur until well after the life of the project. The fifth strategy is similar to the fourth, but stretches the monitoring out over a 10-15 years, making it possible to observe verifiable ATPRP impacts; however, this approach is not feasible within standard AID project cycles. From a scientific standpoint, the fifth strategy would be the best for monitoring ATPRP impacts; however, because of the length of time involved, the team recommends the fourth approach, multi-step monitoring, as a second-best option. The monitoring would proceed in three steps: " First, the ink between policy reform and agriculture is examined through a statistical survey of farmers designed to determine the extent to which agrochemical use increases or land use intensifies, and to attribute those changes to a variety of possible causes (including ATPRP reforms). This survey would be conducted once, about three years after the tariff reforms go into effect. " Second, field data collection, aerial videos, and farmer interviews are conducted to calculate the impact of increased input use and intensified land use on vegetation and water quality. This aspect of the monitoring can begin at once, rather than waiting for the reforms to take effect, since the impact of increased agricultural output on the environment will be the same no matter what the ultimate cause. " Third, field data collection is used to monitor the effects of habitat degradation and water pollution on wildlife populations.