In association with SPECIAL PMMA OUTLOOK BRENNTAG CEO ICIS forecasts global Christian Kohlpainter ISSUE demand falling 15% in prepares for tough Q2 2020 amid crisis 36 with cost measures 40
22-28 May 2020 MAKING SENSE OF CHEMICAL PRICES
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Untitled-2 1 20/05/2020 13:00 Volume 297 Number 19 22-28 May 2020
In association with SPECIAL PMMA OUTLOOK BRENNTAG CEO ICIS forecasts global Christian Kohlpainter ISSUE demand falling 15% in prepares for tough Q2 2020 amid crisis 36 with cost measures 40
22-28 May 2020 MAKING SENSE OF CHEMICAL PRICES in Ning/RB I in L Cover story Presenting the ICIS Top 100 Chemical Distributors, in association with the Fecc. For full story see P27 Shutterstock Coronavirus pandemic has accelerated trend away from PMMA for auto headlights hit by fall in globalisation P10. US housing starts fell by 30.2% month demand, but other markets see rises P36 on month and 29.7% year on year in April P8
NEWS Pricing briefs Plants & projects 12 MA lake down on slowing demand 25 New projects and permanent plant Brie ing 13 Sinopec raises east China propylene shutdowns, 11-17 May 2020 6 Dow shuts units in Midland on loods Pricing snapshot Chemical pro ile 7 Arkema re-appoints Le Henaff as CEO 15 ICIS news evening snapshots, 96 Demand for Europe fatty acids 8 CNOOC, Shell plan third cracker in reported Wednesday 20 May 2020 from personal care is strong, Huizhou Prices & markets automotive weak Focus 17 China policy shift to lift methanol. 97 Typical peak season for US MEG is 9 Plastics recycling industry faces Asia polyester boosted by rising in doubt amid pandemic restrictions low demand and closures amid upstream pandemic 18 Spain chems plea for rescue packs REGULARS 19 Supply length to persist for US TDI as demand dips 5 Commentary TRENDS 20 Global PE margins could surprise in Q2. 94 What’s on Market intelligence Asia acetone sentiment weakens 95 Conferences & events 10 Trend away from globalisation has 21 Next steps for chemicals amid virus been accelerated by coronavirus Global plant status update SPECIAL REPORTS pandemic 22 Major plant disruptions, shutdowns 27 ICIS Top 100 Chemical Distributors 11 Crude prices are pushing petchems and restarts reported by ICIS, The leaders of this important element prices up but demand remains weak 14-20 May 2020 of the chemical supply chain unveiled
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Untitled-2 1 20/05/2020 13:00 CSE20-Exh-Advert-A4-EN_v2.indd 1 15/05/2020 13:01 COMMENTARY
Joseph Chang New York Distribution resilience The sheer diversity in product portfolios is a true strength in these challenging times. Look for an accelerated drive towards digitisation coming out of the crisis
More than ever, the role of chemical distribution as an essential component of industrial and consumer supply chains is in the spotlight. Coming out on the other side of the coronavirus crisis, distributors are set to become even more e icient with an acceleration towards digiti- sation as well as a renewed focus on ESG (environmen- tal, social, governance). We are delighted to bring you this special Top 100 Chemical Distributors issue of ICIS Chemical Business, in association with the European Association of Chemi- cal Distributors (FECC). During the crisis, many distributors have quickly piv-
oted to sourcing and supplying more cleaning chemi- Shutterstock cals and inished products such as hand sanitizer and Chemical distributors are an essential part of the PPE (personal protective equipment) to where they’re supply chain needed - to health professionals, irst responders, es- sential workers and consumers. panies to ind innovative ways to serve customers while The sheer diversity in product portfolios for distribu- many employees are working from home. tors is a true strength in these challenging times, as in- “This move - all of us moving into our home o ices - creased demand for food ingredients and packaging, worked out very well and conirmed that we do live up pharmaceuticals, cleaning chemicals and medical sup- to the aspiration to also be a digital leader in our indus- plies partially offsets broad weakness in automotive, try,” said Hans Joachim Muller, CEO of Belgium-based construction, oil and gas, and consumer durables. distributor Azelis (see page 46). Distributors like Azelis are developing digital tools to During the crisis, many distributors have interact more e iciently with their customers and quickly pivoted to supplying more speed up their time to market by leveraging the dis- cleaning chemicals and inished products tributor’s capabilities. to where they’re needed Sustainability in focus The coronavirus crisis will no doubt cast a brighter “Especially in our business sector, diverse product light on supply chains, and this greater scrutiny will portfolios, thorough market know-how, supply chain ex- also apply to sustainability. cellence and the agility to respond quickly to emerging With security of supply chains at the forefront of priori- challenges and dynamic situations are key to success. ties, suppliers and customers will want to deal with dis- This has helped us greatly to navigate the crisis,” said tributors demonstrating a commitment to sustainability, Dorothee Arns, director general of the FECC (page 29). the circular economy and responsible distribution. Global and local sourcing is also critical to meeting “Mid- and long-term, they will have a huge, long-last- these needs. The shift in supply chain requirements ing impact on the chemical value chain and the way we amid the pandemic - from “just-in-time” to “just-in-case” do business. Not only regulators, but also many chemi- - demands resilience on the part of distributors, notes cal players see Covid-19 as an opportunity to accelerate Robert Stuyt, secretary general of the International a transition which was anyhow underway,” said the Chemical Trade Association (ICTA). FECC’s Arns. “Companies will want to make their supply chains In this special issue, we have commentaries from the more robust and disruption-proof… Countries and com- heads of all the major distributor associations - Europe’s panies will prevent dependence on only one geograph- FECC, the US National Association of Chemical Distribu- ic region or organisation,” said Stuyt (see page 32). tors (NACD), the Brazilian Association of Chemical and While there will be a trend towards more regional Petrochemical Distributors (Associquim), Canada’s Re- supply chains for certain essential products such as sponsible Distribution Canada (RDC), the UK’s Chemical pharmaceuticals and PPE, the coronavirus pandemic Business Association (CBA) and the ICTA. will not lead to full-scale de-globalisation, he maintains. We also feature interviews with the CEOs of key chem- ical distributors to see how they’re handling the coronavi- Drive to digital rus crisis, and to get their outlook for the overall business. Have you seen the ICB web- And the coronavirus crisis will only accelerate the drive And our ICIS Top 100 Chemical Distributors listing is site? Get the latest stories at to digitisation for chemical distributors to more e i- as robust as ever, with participation from distributors icis.com/subscriber/icb ciently serve customers. It’s provided a test run for com- worldwide - both large and small. ■
www.icis.com 22-28 May 2020 | ICIS Chemical Business | 5
ICB_220520_005.indd 5 5/21/20 9:13 AM NEWS For real-time news and analysis from our global team of reporters, visit: icis.com/about/news Brieing AMERICAS this year’s downturn will be worse than Brazil’s deep recession in
Dow shuts units in Shutterstock 2015-2016 when GDP fell 3.55%. Midland on loods Dow has started shutting down Braskem, ALM launch facilities as part of emergency PP for sintering plans activated at its Midland, Brazilian polyoleins producer Michigan, US, facilities, after two Braskem and US irm Advanced dams collapsed due to heavy Laser Materials (ALM) have an- rainfall. Midland Country was de- nounced the availability of a new clared under state of emergency polypropylene (PP) powder for by Michigan’s governor Gretchen use in selective laser sintering Whitmer. According to authori- (SLS). The new PP material will ties, some parts of Midland could bring advantages to SLS additive be under 2.7m (9ft) of water. manufacturing, including mois- “Dow has activated its local emer- ture resistance, improved recy- gency operations centre and is clability and enhanced process- implementing its lood prepared- ing stability, Braskem said. ness plan which includes the safe Sintering is a 3D printing process shutdown of operating units on that uses lasers and thermal en- site,” said the company. Pic of the week ergy to bind powdered material into a solid structure based on a Argentina reineries Michigan loods on dam breaks three dimensional model. back online Michigan’s Midland County in the US is under a state of Two major oil reineries in Argen- emergency after two dams broke, looding the region Total to form alliance tina have resumed operations which includes a number of chemical facilities. with PureCycle after the government’s easing of Total, the French energy and pet- lockdown restrictions sparked an rochemicals major, has formed a upturn in domestic fuel demand. president of Huntsman’s Ad- Dow, partners supply strategic plastics recycling alli- Brazil-based producer Raizen vanced Materials division. PE hospital gowns ance with PureCycle Technolo- conirmed it has partially restart- Dow has partnered with eight gies of the US. As part of the ed its 110,000 bbl/day Dock Sud US to face fewer companies to supply healthcare agreement, Total will purchase reinery in Buenos Aires province Memorial Day travellers workers with protective isolation part of the output of PureCycle’s after a month-long closure The US Memorial Day holiday will gowns during the coronavirus future facility in the US and will caused by the coronavirus crisis. have a low amount of travellers on pandemic. The team has devel- “assess the interest of developing Argentina’s YPF also conirmed it the roads as the coronavirus con- oped Association for the Ad- a new plant together in Europe,” it has restarted its 25,000 bbl/day tinues across the US while gas vancement of Medical Instrumen- said. PureCycle uses a technolo- Plaza Huincul reinery in Neuquen prices remain at 17-year lows. tation (AAMI) Level 2 gowns, Dow gy that separates colour, odour province after processing was While states are beginning to lift said. The 100,000 AAMI gowns and other contaminants from halted at the beginning of April. their lockdowns, many US con- are made with polyethylene (PE) plastic waste feedstock to trans- sumers remain fearful of interstate nonwoven coated with a layer of form it into virgin-like recycled Huntsman completes travel and will remain home this PE ilm made with resin provided polypropylene (PP). CVC Thermoset deal holiday weekend, which is typical- by Dow. They have been approved Huntsman completed the acqui- ly a large travel time. Meanwhile, by the FDA and will be distributed EUROPE sition of CVC Thermoset Special- gas prices in the US are at 17-year equally to government agencies ties from Emerald Performance lows, according to GasBuddy. in Mexico and in the US states of Orlen declines to back Materials. CVC Thermoset makes Louisiana and Texas. coal utility project epoxy resins, toughening agents, HollyFrontier names Poland’s PKN Orlen oil and petro- accelerators, reactive diluents, lubricants president Brazil GDP expected chemicals group said that it has curatives and specialty nitrile la- US reiner HollyFrontier has to contract by 5.1% informed recently acquired texes. They are used in structural named Bruce Lerner as president Economists in Brazil continue to power utility Energa that it will adhesives, protective coatings of lubricants and specialties, ef- lower their outlook for the econo- only become directly inancially and composites. “These prod- fective 1 June. Lerner was presi- my, with GDP now expected to involved in the latter’s construc- ucts deliver enhanced perfor- dent and CEO of PeroxyChem and shrink by 5.12% in 2020, accord- tion of an energy block if the mance, such as durability, lexibil- vice president and global busi- ing to a survey. The weekly survey technology is switched from coal ity, and chemical, crack and ness director of FMC Peroxygens is conducted by the Central Bank to natural gas. Orlen stated that impact resistance, in harsh envi- with FMC Corp prior to that. Lern- of Brazil. In the previous week, its analysis showed the switch ronments. Its applications make er replaces Mark Plake, who is the economists expected GDP to was necessary and added that it products lighter, stronger and stepping down from his role and shrink by 4.11%. If the forecast was willing to enter discussions last longer,” said Scott Wright, plans to retire on 31 December. proves accurate, it suggests that with Energa and Enea, the share-
6 | ICIS Chemical Business | 22-28 May 2020 www.icis.com
ICB_220520_006-008.indd 6 5/21/20 8:35 AM NEWS
To read the full story, visit icis.com/news Voices from the web As petrochemicals storage space in China ills up on es on securing the company’s li- the hope that the country can lead the world in quidity and credit rating,” Coves- economic recovery, here are some important statistics tro added. for you to consider. John Richardson on hopes of a V-shaped recovery VCI warns on foreign ■ www.icis.com/explore/blogs investment controls Germany’s chemical industry Thyssenkrupp will transform from a sprawling con- trade group VCI objects to a gov- ernment proposal to tighten con- glomerate into the “leanest possible” holding com- trols on investments from non-EU pany, as it drives through a radical restructuring plan countries in the wake of the coro- that could leave it with at least 20,000 fewer employ-
Arkema navirus pandemic, it said. A draft ees and result in its steel arm merging with a rival. Arkema extends CEO contract of changes the federal economic Financial Times on Thyssenkrupp to shrink radically affairs ministry proposed shows ■ www.ft.com/companies/industrials holders of Elektrownia Ostroleka, that large parts of the chemical- the company that is to imple- pharmaceutical industry would be Policymakers are struggling to ind solutions to ment the power project. affected by tighter controls. The address one of the biggest threats that our country changes focus in particular on sec- has ever faced - the Covid-19 pandemic. Arkema reappoints tors that develop or produce vac- American Chemistry Blog on industry leaders call on Le Henaff as CEO cines, medical personal protection Congress to save chemical security program France-bases Arkema has ap- equipment (PPE) and other medi- ■ blog.americanchemistry.com pointed Thierry Le Henaff as CEO cal products for the treatment of and chairman for another four highly contagious diseases. years. The move came directly The world is in the grip of the Covid-19 pandemic and after Le Henaff was reappointed Novares restarts 13 the ensuing Great Lockdown has pushed many as director by shareholders at a European plants countries into deep recessions. webcast annual meeting. Le He- The French auto plastics parts IMF Blog on making economies more resilient naff has led Arkema since its spin- group Novares has reopened 13 of ■ blogs.imf.org off from Total and subsequent ini- its 19 production sites in Europe tial public offering back in 2006. after receiving a €45m cash injec- Oil prices are staging a furious comeback from last tion from its two largest share- month’s collapse. RadiciGroup appoints holders. Plants in France, Spain, The Wall Street Journal on return of car traic Bigler as distributor Italy, Portugal, Serbia, Turkey and ■ www.wsj.com/news/business/industrial-services Italy-based RadiciGroup has ap- Romania were reopened, “with pointed Switzerland’s B Bigler as better than expected production distributor in Germany. B Bigler is rates”, it said. The company - hit distributing a range of Radici hard as the coronavirus pandemic products - including polyamide tore into auto sector demand - Check out the ICIS blogs at icis.com/blogs polymers and compounds, ther- closed 40 of its 45 worldwide moplastic engineering polymers plants and last month decided to Most-read and co-polyester elastomers, po- obtain bankruptcy protection. The top ive stories for the week just gone: lybutylene terephthalate, poly- 1 China attracts petrochemical exports mers and yarns - in Europe’s larg- Germany sentiment SINGAPORE - China’s petrochemical industry face est economy. B Bigler operates a improves in May challenges - rising inventories and congestion at ports. German logistics hub near Darm- Expectations for an economic re- 2 NE Asia ethylene prices surge on Chinese buying stadt, south of Frankfurt, and has covery in Germany continued to SINGAPORE - Ethylene import prices in northeast Asia a local sales force in the country. improve in May, according to ana- surged to the highest level in eight weeks. lysts at the Zew Institute. The Zew 3 Pandemic redrawing the map for chemicals trade Covestro to cut Indicator of Economic Sentiment LONDON - The chemicals sector has the potential to dividend in half rose for the second consecutive become less global and more regionally focused. Germany-based Covestro plans month, gaining 22.8 points on 4 ‘Early signs’ of crude market rebalancing to cut its dividend in half as the April’s reading to 51.0 points in LONDON - Crude oil markets are showing “early signs of coronavirus pandemic is hitting May, with particular strength ex- rebalancing” as output cuts by OPEC+ countries kick in. earnings and liquidity. The com- pected in the fourth quarter. De- 5 OPEC cuts 2020 global crude demand forecasts pany is now proposing a dividend spite an anticipated recovery in LONDON - OPEC has slashed its expectations for global of €1.20/share for the 2019 inan- coming months, the assessment demand growth this year by 2.23m bbl/day. cial year. It previously planned to of the current economic situation maintain the dividend at the 2018 continued to decrease slightly, These are the most read stories taken from ICIS news last level of €2.40/share. “The board with the indicator dropping 2.0 week. To ind out more, visit: icis.com/about/news of management currently focus- points to -93.5 points.
www.icis.com 22-28 May 2020 | ICIS Chemical Business | 7
ICB_220520_006-008.indd 7 5/21/20 8:35 AM NEWS For real-time news and analysis from our global team of reporters, visit: icis.com/about/news
EU passenger car look has de¢initely worsened in dustry. They will leverage on pressure in this di©icult environ- sales fall 76% light of the Covid-19 pandemic BASF’s expertise in advanced ma- ment. It is imperative that we re- EU passenger car sales fell 76.3% and the measures taken to con- terials and HIT’s competency in in- main resilient as we face the full year on year in April, the sharpest tain the spread, and we see Japan frastructure for a win-win cooper- impact of the pandemic and sub- fall since records began, as the facing signi¢icant challenges due ation to innovate for a sustainable sequent economic downturn.” automotive industry suffered to the virus impact, on both trade future in China. the lockdowns across the and the domestic economy,” Sin- India’s auto industry 27-country bloc, the European gapore-based UOB Global Eco- India’s proposed needs reforms Automobile Manufacturers’ Asso- nomics and Market Research Covid-19 tax draws ire While the Indian government’s ciation (ACEA) said. The number economist Alvin Liew said. India is proposing to impose a recent move to infuse liquidity of new cars sold during the 15% tax on all chemical and petro- into the economy through a month fell to 270,682, compared IOC, Haldia on high chemical imports, to protect the $266bn ¢iscal stimulus package with 1.14m during April 2019. Of alert for cyclone domestic industry in the current could help the domestic auto in- the largest EU markets, Spain and Companies with manufacturing ¢iscal year ending March 2021 as dustry, the sector will require Italy saw the sharpest falls, with facilities along the eastern coast of it battles the coronavirus pan- long-term reforms to revive it, registrations falling 96.5% and India including Indian Oil Corp demic. Downstream end-users, said industry experts. Indian 97.6%, respectively year on year. (IOC) and Haldia Petrochemicals however, have posed strong op- prime minister Narendra Modi an- have been put on high alert as Cy- position to the measure - dubbed nounced a $266bn ¢iscal stimulus ASIA clone Amphan is expected to as “Covid tax” - which was sup- package to help revive the econ- make landfall. “Amphan is the most posed to take effect for 11 months omy after a nearly two-month CNOOC, Shell plan 3rd intense and the ¢irst super cyclone from May 2020 - as this will trans- long pandemic-induced lock- cracker in Huizhou since the 1999 Odisha cyclone. late to higher cost of production. down. The Indian automotive in- CNOOC and Shell Petrochemical dustry has seen a steady decline Company (CSPC) is planning to BASF to work with Malaysia’s PCG in sales for the past one year and further expand its Huizhou com- China university Q1 net proit falls nearly all automakers recorded plex in Guangdong province, BASF and China’s Harbin Institute Malaysia’s PETRONAS Chemicals zero domestic sales in April. China, by adding a new 1.5m of Technology (HIT) have signed a Group (PCG) reported a sharp tonne/year ethylene cracker, Shell cooperation agreement to jointly drop in its net pro¢it as product Hempel to build said. CNOOC Oil & Petrochemi- conduct research on material so- prices fell in tandem with declin- coatings plant in China cals Co Ltd, Shell Nanhai BV and lutions for sustainable infrastruc- ing crude oil prices as well as Denmark-based Hempel is invest- the Huizhou Government signed ture applications. Research teams softer demand. “The Covid-19 ing $100m to build a new 102,000 a strategic cooperation on the ex- from BASF and the HIT will work pandemic and OPEC+ fallout tonne/year plant for waterborne, pansion in a virtual online cere- together on the testing of new ap- have heightened economic as solvent-based and powder coat- mony on 17 May. The expansion plications for BASF’s advanced well as market uncertainties,” said ings at Yantai, China. The plant at aims to serve the growing num- materials to cut emissions and en- CEO Sazali Hamzah. “Product the Yantai Chemical Industrial Park ber of intermediate and perfor- ergy costs to the construction in- prices will generally remain under is expected to open in 2021. Hemp- mance chemicals customers in el has three plants in China - an ex- the key market of China. isting one at Yantai, and plants at Kunshan and Guangzhou. The new China keeps benchmark plant will sharpen Hempel’s focus lending rate stable on “delivering innovative and more China’s central bank kept its lend- sustainable coating solutions” to ing rate unchanged to keep bor- customers in the region, said Mi-
rowing costs steady. The one- SMITH/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock W LARRY chael Mei, group vice president of year loan prime rate (LPR) will still Hempel in north Asia. be 3.85% and that for ¢ive-year and above at 4.65%, said the Peo- BASF, DiDi sign ple’s Bank of China. Analysts said carsharing agreement that the steady rate means mar- BASF has signed a strategic coop- ket liquidity is high. The LPR was eration agreement with China’s introduced in August 2019 as a leading car-hailing platform Didi benchmarking rate for lenders for sustainable development of and is a regarded reference on the carsharing industry in and out market liquidity. of China. BASF will provide DiDi with sustainable automotive re¢in- Japan braces for ish products developed at its Ji- a deeper downturn angmen site to help reduce VOC Japan is bracing for a steeper End markets emissions and meet the stringent downturn in economic activity standards implemented in various after slipping into a recession, as US housing starts plunge cities. BASF’s paint-related prod- the full impact of the coronavirus US housing starts plunged in April to a seasonally adjusted ucts will be part of the offerings to pandemic on businesses, invest- annual rate of 891,000, down 30.2% month on month and help body shops enhance work- ments and consumption will hit 29.7% year on year. Building permits also fell hard. ¢low and overall performance for the second quarter. “Japan’s out- automotive re¢inishing.
8 | ICIS Chemical Business | 22-28 May 2020 www.icis.com
ICB_220520_006-008.indd 8 5/21/20 8:35 AM NEWS FOCUS
Recycling Mark Victory London Plastics recycling challenges For those that are able, acting now on recycling will ensure they are not caught short in the future
On 15 May, industry association PP), for example, where the major- As a result, there have been projects that had been delayed, Plastics Recyclers Europe (PRE) ity of end-use is for non-packaging widespread concerns over poten- consumption had been expected issued a statement urging the EU applications such as automotive, tial bankruptcies in parts of the to increase sharply from Q2. and member states to include re- outdoor furniture, construction chain depending on the approach Shortages of suitable material cycling as one of the sectors sup- and lower pots (almost all Euro- banks take to debt reinancing. to meet FMCG targets - particu- ported by their recovery plans pean lower pots are now made Additionally, weak demand and larly for food-grade material - has and to continue implementing from R-PP), demand in April fell by an unwillingness to launch new been a major concern. measures under its Circular Econ- around 50% year on year. supply chains amid the current omy umbrella because of the cur- As demand weakened, recy- disruption meant that underlying Recycled and virgin rent pressure on the industry. clers increasingly idled operations market growth in less established Delays to investment now make it PRE warned that the plastics or switched to working purely mechanical recycling industries increasingly likely that there will recycling industry is closing pro- from stock. Cash reserves at recy- such as recycled polyoleins - not be enough material to hit 2025 duction as a result of the crisis, clers are typically signiicantly which had previously been strong brand and regulatory targets, re- citing low demand on the back of lower than petrochemical irms, - has ground to a halt. sulting in increased competition convertor closures, and the low and many rely on short-term debt For maturing recycling mar- for material and an increased dis- price of virgin plastics along with inancing to fund investment. kets such as recycled polyoleins connect between virgin and recy- decreased global activity. With strong consumer and reg- (R-PO), growth in 2020 had been cled material pricing. “If the situation is to persist and ulatory pressure leading to a raft of expected to be strong because Strong demand and the lack of no actions are taken to remedy FMCG brand targets for 2025 of increased use from the cos- supply had already resulted in a the sector, plastics recycling will across recycled polymer markets metics and household goods disconnect between virgin and cease to be proitable, hamper- pre-coronavirus investment levels packaging sectors. recycled polymer prices for ing the attainment of the EU recy- were high, increasing the debt With long testing cycles of grades most attractive to the cling targets and putting in jeop- burden once coronavirus hit. around 18-months and multiple packaging sector. A two-tier mar- ardy the transition towards ket between packaging applica- circular plastics. In such a case, Europe R-PET vs virgin spread tions - where prices are now recyclable plastic waste will have largely driven by demand and €/tonne, spot no alternatives but to be sent to sustainability factors - and non- 800 R-PET colourless lake, FD NWE minus virgin PET landill or incineration,” said PRE 700 R-PET food grade pellet minus virgin PET packaging applications, where President and Director, Group Re- 600 prices remain driven by cost-sav- cycling at CeDo, Ton Emans. 500 ing against virgin, had arisen. 400 It is certainly true that the recy- 300 The charts here show the cling industry is facing signiicant 200 spread between virgin and recy- short-term disruption and strain 100 cled polymer grades - with zero as a result of the coronavirus pan- 0 on the graph representing price -100 demic, including inancial pres- -200 parity, above zero meaning recy- sure not seen since the global -300 cling prices are more expensive economic downturn in 2008. -400 than virgin and below zero mean- -500 ing they are cheaper. Under inancial pressure 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 The irst is the spread between Packaging demand in April fell by R-PET colourless lakes and food- 20-30% across European recycled Europe R-HDPE vs virgin HDPE ilm spread grade pellets and Virgin PET spot polymers because of substitution values. The second graph shows €/tonne, spot back to virgin, despite underlying the R-HDPE pellet price spreads 1,200 packaging demand remaining with virgin HDPE ilm spot prices. strong due to homeworkers using 1,000 The inal graph shows the spread more packaged goods. 800 between natural R-PP pellet pric- Demand for non-packaging es (which are a mix of homopoly- 600 R-HDPE GP Black pellets applications has ground to a vir- R-HDPE Mixed Coloured Pellets mer and copolymer) and the vari- 400 R-HDPE Natural Pellets tual standstill due to widespread R-HDPE Pipe Grade Black Pellets ous grades of virgin spot prices. closures, particularly from key 200 All three graphs show the in- end-uses such as automotive and 0 crease in volatility since the spread outdoor furniture, which have of the pandemic in March. This been most severely affected. -200 volatility has increased uncertainty In recycled polymer markets -400 in the market, and multiple players such as recycled polypropylene (R- May 2019 May 2020 Continued on P16 ❯❯
www.icis.com 22-28 May 2020 | ICIS Chemical Business | 9
ICB_220520_009-016.indd 9 5/21/20 9:16 AM MARKET INTELLIGENCE For real-time news and analysis from our global team of reporters, visit: icis.com/about/news Virus fractures trade Trade had already become more regional before the pandemic struck, driven by the US-China trade war and increasing nationalism. This trend will now accelerate.
Tom Brown London
Supply chain disruption in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic could turn into new long-term arrangements that result in a move away from globalised trade lows, exacerbated by a shift in some countries towards nation- alism, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). A survey of economists, executives and policy mak- ers identiied supply chain disruption as one of the seven key risks for the world over the next 18 months. The bulk of the key risks facing the globe in the wake of the pandemic are economic, including a prolonged recession, a surge in bankruptcies, failure of certain in- dustries to ever fully bounce back, and substantial weakening of key countries. Tighter restrictions on cross-border movements of people and goods was the only geopolitical risk factor highlighted seen as one of the most likely outcomes of
the pandemic. Shutterstock The establishment of new, more localised supply Trade will become more regional in the aftermath chains in response to the extent of disruption caused by of the pandemic lockdowns, production shutdowns and quarantine measures enacted across the globe could become a cal tensions, with the US-China trade war disrupting longer-term ixture of trade lows, according to the WEF. global lows and the UK’s move to quit the EU leading businesses on both sides of the Channel to reduce reli- Saadia Zahidi ance on cross-border trade links. Managing director, WEF Shutdowns initially seen across Asia Paciic and spreading west in ensuing weeks has put further strain “There were already ongoing trends towards on trade links, and exposed the vulnerability of the “just re-shoring or near-shoring… and that, in time” supply chains that carry little inventory on hand. combined with a mood of greater economic “I think that’s something we need to keep a very nationalism could accelerate that” close watch on, and may see the chemicals industry becoming less global in the way product moves,” KP- MG’s global head of chemicals Paul Harnick told ICIS in This could enhance the resilience of supply chains a recent interview. that have proven to be vulnerable to the scale of dis- For chemicals, a retrenchment towards more region- ruption caused by something like a pandemic and in- al supply chains had been in motion before the pan- crease local business opportunities, but could also re- demic and would continue after, according to Arkema sult in cooperation between countries and restrict CEO Thierry Le Henaff. cross-border lows. “[Coronavirus] will not change signiicantly the low “There were already ongoing trends towards re-shor- of chemicals in a material way, because chemicals are ing or near-shoring… and that, combined with a mood being more and more regional. That has been the trend of greater economic nationalism could accelerate that,” so far, and I don’t think that will change,” he said at a re- said WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi, speaking at cent press conference. a press brieing. “What we’ve seen through this crisis is actually an ex- Tighter borders acerbation, an acceleration and a twisting of familiar Some countries grappling with the crisis have already risk trends. It’s not as though this de-coupling was started to place restrictions on exports of key pan- something that was unknown prior to this crisis, so I demic management materials such as biocides and think it becomes fuel… in terms of what companies are protective equipment, while the EU has erupted in a already thinking about,” said Richard Smith-Bingham, standoff between northwestern European and Medi- executive director of professional services irm Marsh & terranean countries about how to inance the inanc- McLennan Advantage, also speaking at the brieing. ing of the recovery. Have you seen the ICB website? Get the latest stories at The status quo of tightly interlinked global supply There are risks of countries turning in,” said Ngaire icis.com/subscriber/icb chains has been challenged by increasing global politi- Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at
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the University of Oxford, also speaking on the WEF brief- ing. “At this moment when people cannot physically travel, politicians can use that… to pursue some kind of Think Tank xenophobic economic nationalism. Nigel Davis London “One of the underlying things that we can see is the emergence of a narrative that helps countries turn in- Crude upturn, weak demand play out wards,” she added.
A crossroads The publication of the coronavirus risk factors report Petrochemical prices may be trend- For products such as polyethylene comes a few months after the WEF released its annual ing upward, largely on the back on terephthalate (PET) it may be a case risk report, which was focused at the time on environ- the rising price of crude oil, but sen- of the market adjusting to a new nor- mental risks, which comprised all of the top ive key timent remains weak and uncertain. mal of demand – stronger in some long-term hazards. Northeast Asia markets are lead- applications linked to health, safety ing the way for price increases, al- and protection, much weaker in oth- Ngaire Woods though demand has been hard hit ers – that could make forecasting Dean, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford by coronavirus lockdowns. Market easier. Something similar may be at dynamics change rapidly. play for the major polyoleins, al- “We cannot simply let every country Asia butadiene (BD) prices have though the sheer volume of demand that can no longer raise credit in capital ticked upwards, but driven by up- into manufacturing, automobiles markets crash, because that’s most of stream naphtha costs rather than and construction, mean that the cor- the world” stronger demand. Asia naphtha pric- onavirus impact is more signiicant. es last week were at a two-month high following the jump in crude. There are signs of a pick up The earlier report covers a decade, longer than the Brent and WTI front-month futures in demand, particularly from coronavirus risk report which is focused on the crisis have been rising since 24 April, un- the construction sector as and aftermath. The risks set out in the longer-range re- derpinning downstream petrochem- national lockdowns ease port are still as pressing as ever, and policy measures icals sentiment. BD spot prices will need to be put in place now to mitigate those issues bottomed out in late April at $350/ in future, according to Peter Giger, group chief risk of- tonne CFR (cost and freight) NE China is certainly restocking as icer of Zurich Insurance. (northeast) Asia, down by about 55% can be seen at the top of the chain in “The planet is still heating up and just because it isn’t from early March. ethylene with June supply tight, al- making the headlines right now doesn’t mean that [the “The key point is demand and though that is also due to con- issue] is gone,” he said. whether it is strong enough to sus- straints on regional production The vast stimulus measures and shifts to the way civi- tain the BD price uptick. China may capabilities. Ethylene prices in lisations are operating at present, from the migration to have resumed market activity earlier southeast Asia have continued to home working in many sectors to plans to pedestrianise than any other country, but the de- rise on China market sentiment, swathes of major cities to allow social distancing, could mand recovery could not just de- tight regional supply and spot de- form the basis for beneicial shifts in the way the global pend on China alone,” a trader said. mand from polyethylene (PE). economy functions, with an increased focus on social Currently, there is good reported Unexpected ethylene supply re- welfare and environmental issues, Zahidi said. demand in China for new vehicle strictions in Europe have helped The political situation in many countries is extremely sales – light trucks, for instance - but underpin prices but there are signs volatile at present, and the way governments respond whether these vehicles are going to of a pick up in demand, particularly to the current crisis is pivotal to peacefully navigating dealerships or to the customer re- from the construction sector as disruption, according to Woods. mains to be seen. There is also re- national lockdowns ease, as re- “You can’t’ afford command and control [political portedly an increase in online sales. ported by ICIS. frameworks],” she said, noting that Gulf countries are facing a huge threat at present due to the perfect storm ICIS daily price index of collapsed oil pricing and the pandemic. “[There is a] really big risk that not enough people 120 US NE Asia at the top of the system will understand that this cri- NW Europe sis for the Gulf is so deep that every person will have 100 Global to take a cut. This is an existential crisis for the Gulf, and if this does not see every person at the top take 80 a big pay cut then you’re going to face a revolution,” she added. 60 Diiculties in accessing liquidity for a huge swathe of global economies are likely to become chronic, she noted, advocating for pooled credit ratings for coun- 40 tries to allow economies to recover and to avoid wider shocks from collapses. 20 Feb Mar Apr May “We cannot simply let every country that can no long- 2020 er raise credit in capital markets crash, because that’s Note: Based on published ICIS daily prices most of the world ,” she added. ■
www.icis.com 22-28 May 2020 | ICIS Chemical Business | 11
ICB_220520_010-011.indd 11 5/20/20 4:25 PM PRICE & MARKET TRENDS For up-to-date information on more than 120 global commodities, visit: icis.com/about/price-reports Brieing EUROPE weak, which a producer has large- reference price has therefore limited demand. Group I SN150 MA lake down on slowing ly attributed to low consumption been set at the mid-point of these domestic bulk prices slipped demand from the automotive industry. conirmed settlements at €500/ $20/tonne to $540-600/tonne The European maleic anhydride Weak demand has contributed to tonne FD NWE. Lengthy supply, FOB NWE. SN150 truck values (MA) market is still seeing some long supply conditions. weak demand and falling spot dipped €20/tonne to €520-570/ downward pressure from the prices have put downwards pres- tonne FCA NWE. In the Group II halt in activity that has taken May ECH contracts soften sure on OX contract pricing. market, prices for 200/220N hold of the automotive sector. on propylene inched down €10/tonne to Most business is still occurring Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) PA contract settles €640-680/tonne FCA NWE. Val- on contract, with buyers seeing freely negotiated contracts have €20/tonne lower ues for Group III 4cSt material similar slower consumption lev- settled lower for May, relecting The European phthalic anhydride edged down €10/tonne on the els at manufacturers down- some upstream propylene cost (PA) contract price for May has low end, widening to €640-760/ stream. MA liquid was assessed relief this month, albeit with some settled €20/tonne lower from tonne FCA NWE. unchanged at €960-€1,100/ moderating factors. Price reduc- April, tracking feedstock orthox- tonne FD NWE while lake lost tions for ECH have ranged from ylene (OX) contract price’s de- ASIA some ground on both ends and €30-55/tonne for May. Availability crease. The contract price for China EO list prices up was assessed at €1,000-€1,125/ is not an issue, although one sup- solid and liquid PA is €704.5-759/ CNY200/tonne tonne FD NWE. plier is still in the process of re- tonne FD NWE, with the mid- China’s domestic ethylene oxide plenishing stocks due to a recent point standing at €732/tonne FD (EO) list prices rose by yuan Glycol ether demand spate of technical issues. NWE. The PA May CP is at levels (CNY) 200/tonne week on week, wanes in May last seen between March and according to market sources. The European glycol ether demand May epoxy resins April 2004 when the market bot- price hike follows the most recent levels in May have dipped and ac- contracts fall tomed at €690/tonne and re- increment of CNY200/tonne on tivity has lessened. Despite spot Europe May epoxy resins contract bounded to €750/tonne in April. 12 May. Prior to that was an in- prices remaining stable, there prices have dropped, amid slow crease of CNY300/tonne on 30 were some pockets of competi- demand from key end sectors and Europe benzene-naphtha April. One of the largest EO pro- tion heard within the market, so good availability. Contract prices spread narrows ducers in China - Sinopec - an- players are waiting to see if the for May are assessed at €2,150- The spread between benzene nounced the revision of its list lack of demand continues. Spot 2,300/tonne FD NWE for standard and naphtha pricing in Europe is price to CNY6,700/tonne ex-tank. prices were assessed stable, be- liquid and €2,050-2,150/tonne FD narrowing as naphtha spot values tween €780-820/tonne FD NWE NWE for standard solid (types 2 have jumped since April. The China 2-EH offers for butyl glycol (BG) and €1,020- and 3). This relects decreases of spread is also impacted by ben- continue to rise 1,070/tonne FD NWE for butyl gly- €50-100/tonne for liquid epoxy zene in Europe being priced at China’s 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) of- col (BDG) spot prices. resins and drops of €100/tonne around $80/tonne below Asia, fers increased on 20 May. Ex-tank for solid epoxy resins compared where the spread to naphtha is offers in east China were at yuan Butac prices soften on with the previous month. more reasonable. Average ben- (CNY) 6,750-6,800/tonne, up by weak demand zene prices stood at $275/tonne CNY50/tonne from 19 May, and The European spot price assess- OX May contracts down CIF ARA. Naphtha prices were those in north China rose by ment for butyl acetate (butac) has €20/tonne $215.5/tonne CIF NWE. CNY100/tonne to CNY6,500- narrowed due to weak demand European May orthoxylene (OX) 6,600/tonne. The increase was at- and long supply. Butac prices contract prices have been settled Base oils domestic, export tributed to rising feedstock prices. were assessed at €840-880/ at a decrease of €20/tonne. Set- prices slump tonne FD NWE – a decrease of tlements were conirmed at European base oils prices for do- MEG rises on costs, €20/tonne on the high end of the €505/tonne FD NWE and €495/ mestic and export markets improving demand range. Demand for butac remains tonne FD NWE. The May contract slumped on lengthy supply and Asia import monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices went up on the back EuropeSINGLE ECDECKH HEADLINE LOOKS BEST XXXX Europe epoxy resins of rising crude and naphtha prices as well as improving demand in €/tonne, contract FD NWE €/tonne, standard liquid, contract FD NWE China. The higher crude values 2,200 2,400 and naphtha prices provided sup- 2,350 port to downstream petrochemi- 2,150 cal markets. Spot discussions 2,300 were at $420-430/tonne CFR CMP with several deals heard 2,100 2,250 done at $425/tonne.
2,200 Sinopec lifts benzene 2,050 list prices 2,150 China’s Sinopec has raised its do- 2,000 2,100 mestic benzene list prices by Jun 2019 May 2020 Jun 2019 May 2020 yuan (CNY) 100/tonne, a compa-
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To read the full story, visit icis.com/news
ny source said on Monday. Its prices went up amid gains in Latin American PET prices from April. US spot export VAM benzene prices were adjusted to the upstream crude oil and remain steady prices were last assessed at CNY3,250/tonne EXW nation- naphtha markets. Naphtha Most Latin American polyethyl- $880-970/tonne. wide. This is the third movement prices in Asia rose to a two- ene terephthalate (PET) buyers made in May. The new list price month high, bolstered by a remain on the sidelines as the US acetone faces has an import parity of $400/ jump in crude oil futures. Bids local economies experience the upward pressure tonne CFR China, L/C at sight, or for PX July shipments for Asia impact of the pandemic. This US acetone remains tight, but around $405/tonne CFR China, origin stood at $502/tonne CFR lack of buying interest is con- players are watching to see if L/C 90 days. Taiwan/China on 18 May. tributing to lat resin prices. supply and demand balance out. Asian PET offers were heard at Upward pressure is present this Sinopec raises east China China isomer MX import $730-750/tonne CFR South month as co-phenol operating propylene talks higher America mark, but sources rates are lower and as demand China’s petrochemical giant Sin- Imports of isomer-grade mixed claim to have negotiated prices holds up in certain segments, opec raised its propylene list xylenes (MX) into China were at the low end of the range, and while imports are constrained prices in east China by yuan discussed at higher levels after even below it at $720/tonne due to antidumping duties (CNY) 100/tonne on 16 May, a crude oil rises on Monday. On CFR South America. (ADDs) and high freight costs. A company source said on Monday. bullish sentiment, buying indi- supplier is seeking a 7 cent/lb Its subsidiary, Zhenhai Reining & cations for July shipments were MEK prices decline due ($154/tonne) increase on ace- Chemical (ZRCC), raised its pro- at $420-425/tonne, against sell- to lower demand tone, effective 7 May, according pylene offers to CNY6,250/tonne ing indications at $430-435/ Methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) prices to market sources. ex-tank, while another subsidiary, tonne, both on a CFR east China fell this week on news of de- Jinling Petrochemical, raised its basis. “The tank storage is tight creased demand, particularly in US toluene trends lower prices to CNY6,200/tonne ex- for the entire month of June, but the industrial sector. Asian im- with gasoline tank. Ningbo Kingfa and Zhejiang stocks are expected to be ports have increased in May, in- US toluene spot prices moved Satellite both raised their list pric- cleared by July. So we only creasing alternatives for US buy- lower with gasoline and mixed es on 16-18 May. Producers in east focus on July arrival cargoes ers. However, Asian imports xylene (MX) spot prices rose on China raised list prices in view of now,” said an importer. continue to make up a relatively tightening supply this week amid increasing propylene prices in small percentage of the US mar- limited trading activity. The week- Shandong and the open arbi- AMERICAS ket. During the week, MEK prices ly range for toluene spot prices trage window. US IPA prices decline as fell by 5 cents/lb ($110/tonne). was $1.02-1.23/gal free on board supply lengthens Domestic prices delivered East of (FOB), and weekly range for MX Shanghai SECCO Isopropanol (IPA) demand contin- the Rockies are now assessed at was $1.07-1.35/gal FOB, as as- increases ACN price ues to be very strong in the US, 83-87 cents/lb. sessed by ICIS. China’s Shanghai SECCO has in- although supply has increased in creased its acrylonitrile (ACN) recent weeks. Following a rise in May could be slowest US June BD contract weekly price to yuan (CNY) 7,250/ Asian imports, prices have fallen month for US VAM nomination lat tonne ex-tank, up by CNY250/ from their highs of several weeks Demand for US vinyl acetate A US June butadiene (BD) con- tonne in comparison with the ago, although they remain much monomer (VAM) has entered tract nomination emerged at a previous week, a company higher than before the coronavi- what could be its slowest month rollover as downstream plants source said on Monday. rus (Covid-19) health crisis. Prices since the coronavirus pandemic start up and demand remains delivered (DEL) to the US Gulf are became more widespread in subdued. A producer nominated PX, PTA higher amid now 85-185 cents/lb ($1874- the western part of the world. 20 cents/lb ($441/tonne), lat upstream gains 4079/tonne), while spot prices The ICIS assessment of US VAM from its May settlement. Global Asian paraxylene (PX) and puri- free on board (FOB) to the Gulf contracts is at 60-62 cents/lb price indications have ticked ied terephthalic acid (PTA) are 110-210 cents/lb. for May, a drop of 2 cents/lb higher, but supply continues to outpace demand. Coronavirus Asia MEG US IPA declines from peaks demand recovery is expected to be slow. $/tonne, spot CFR China Main Ports Cents/lb DEL US Gulf consumer domestic Spot FOB US Gulf export 700 250 Spot FOB US Gulf tank truck North American Q3 TiO2 talks gear up 200 600 North American Q3 titanium di- oxide (TiO2) contract negotia- 150 tions are expected to gain mo- 500 mentum, beginning in June, amid 100 mixed views about the viability of current initiatives. The recent Q2 400 50 small-to-medium volume buyer rollover held the domestic price 300 0 range at $1.60-1.70/lb free deliv- May 2019 May 2020 May 2019 May 2020 ered (FD), as assessed by ICIS.
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