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Riverlands Brazoria County MUD Market Study

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Riverlands Brazoria County MUD Market Study Riverlands Brazoria County MUD Market Study Prepared for Riverlands Development LLC, October 2016 Metrostudy — 10707 Corporate Drive, Suite 200, Houston, Texas 77477 Phone: 713.622.9909 Email: [email protected] web: www.metrostudy.com Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 1 CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3 Purpose and Methodology ............................................................................... 3 Development Area Location and Characteristics ............................................ 4 I. Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 6 Economic Overview ......................................................................................... 6 Houston Employment Overview ........................................................................ 6 Housing Market Overview ................................................................................ 6 Competitive Market Area Analysis .................................................................. 7 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 10 II. HOUSTON OVERVIEW .................................................................................... 14 SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 14 HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT ............................................................................... 15 Total Employment .......................................................................................... 15 Employment by Sector .................................................................................... 16 Employment Clusters ...................................................................................... 17 Energy Sector Trends ..................................................................................... 19 Houston Demographic Trends ....................................................................... 20 Total Population ............................................................................................. 20 Age Distribution ............................................................................................. 21 Income Distribution ........................................................................................ 23 Houston Housing Market ............................................................................... 24 Multi-Family Market ........................................................................................ 24 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Activity .............................................................. 25 New Housing Starts & Forecast ....................................................................... 26 New Home Inventory Trends ........................................................................... 29 Vacant Developed Lot Inventory, Deliveries and Absorption ............................... 31 III. Competitive Market Area .............................................................................. 34 Introduction .................................................................................................. 34 Definition and Justification ........................................................................... 34 Population and Household Trends ................................................................ 35 Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 2 CONTENTS, CONTINUED IV. Residential Analysis ...................................................................................... 38 CMA New Single-Family Housing Market ...................................................... 38 Housing Starts ............................................................................................... 38 Vacant Developed Lots ................................................................................... 40 Lot Delivery and Absorption ............................................................................ 41 Price Range Distribution of New Home Starts and VDL ...................................... 43 CMA Demand by Lot Size ................................................................................ 46 CMA Subdivisions Ranked by Annual New Home Starts ..................................... 48 Projected Tax Rates ........................................................................................ 48 Planned Housing Projects, Future Lot Inventory ................................................ 49 V. Site Analysis and Evaluation ........................................................................... 51 Site Analysis .................................................................................................. 51 VI. Assumptions & Limiting Conditions .............................................................. 53 Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 3 Introduction Purpose and Methodology The purpose of this market analysis is to provide future projections of new single-family housing absorption within the Riverlands community, which will be served by a yet-to- be-named Brazoria County Municipal Utility District (“The District”), for the District Creation Application. In order to achieve this, Metrostudy has analyzed and projected expected single-family housing demand within a defined Competitive Market Area (CMA) surrounding the District. It is from within the Riverlands/South Houston CMA that the subject development will draw much of its market support. Metrostudy evaluated the overall Houston economy, particularly the trends in household formation and employment growth, to determine the correlation between economic expansion and single-family housing demand. By analyzing these historical trends, Metrostudy established a forecast for housing starts in the Houston Market1 and the CMA. A map of the CMA can be found on page 34 of this document. Single-family housing production was also analyzed to establish the manner in which Houston’s housing supply expands and/or contracts in response to economic activity. Metrostudy monitors the supply of new homes on a quarterly basis to accurately determine the size of the Houston market, as well as the size and number of competing subdivisions. Furthermore, a demographic analysis of the CMA was completed to determine the percentage of the population that is capable of purchasing new homes in comparison to the region overall. Metrostudy’s focus is on area demographics, historical starts, and lot inventories for the subdivisions located within the CMA boundaries. 1 Metrostudy’s Houston Market is Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller Counties. It is the MSA, less Austin County. Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 4 Development Area Location and Characteristics The proposed Riverlands community is located in the southern area of the Houston region, within Brazoria County. The proposed community is located along the east side of F.M.-521, directly south of County Road-56, approximately 2.9 miles west of Texas State Highway-288/South Freeway. The following map shows the location of the community and District. Riverlands Development The District is located within the Angleton Independent School District. Savannah, which is located to the northwest of the State Highway-6 and State Highway-288 intersection, has been one of the most active communities within the area, with nearly 170 annual starts on 50’ to 75’ lots. In addition to Savannah, the Southlake and Rodeo Palms communities within the CMA have also experienced significant annual starts activity over the past twelve months. Most of the development pattern surrounding the Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 5 subject site consists of low-density single-family residential uses and low-density strip- retail centers anchored by grocery stores and other neighborhood-serving shops. The Riverlands community occupies approximately 522 acres located to the southeast of F.M.-521 and County Road 56. Although the community is yet to establish a finalized lot program, a mix of 45’, 50’ and 60’ lots is envisioned for the site. Riverlands BC-MUD Market Study | 6 I. Executive Summary Economic Overview Houston Employment Overview • The national economy has increased its non-farm employment by 1.7 percent over the last twelve months ending June 2016, while Texas and Houston have grown by 1.5 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. • Houston’s economy is in the midst of a slight correction in response to oil prices recently dropping below $40/bbl, after several years of robust job growth. Although oil prices have risen to approximately $47/bbl, annual job growth slowed to about one percent in 2015 compared to the three-to-four percent employment growth achieved following the recovery from the Great Recession. According to the most recent Bureau of Labor Statics release, nonfarm employment grew at an annualized 1.0 percent over the first half of 2016. • After several years of substantial gains in Professional and Business Services, Manufacturing, and Mining, those three very important sectors registered significant contractions in over the previous twelve months. Professional and Business Services experienced the greatest job losses, with total employment reduced by approximately 15,500 jobs. Similarly, Manufacturing and the Mining and Logging sectors have experienced declines in employment of 15,200 and 13,600, respectively. Adverse effects of this jobs decline were mitigated
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