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Japan Life and Non-Life Insurance Insurance Life and Non-Life Insurance Japan Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: Japan Life and Non-Life Insurance Life Insurers' Main Risk is Low Yields, Non-Life's is Catastrophes Teruki Morinaga, Director Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Stable Fitch Ratings expects stable underwriting fundamentals, especially for life insurance, and well- “Fitch believes stable underwriting fundamentals, well managed managed international diversification to offset challenges faced by Japanese insurers. Life insurers international diversification, and strengthened capital buffers will continue to focus on profitable protection products, especially the most profitable and moderately offset challenges faced by Japanese insurers. We view the biggest growing ‘third’ (health) sector products. Non-life insurers are likely to suffer the negative impact potential risks for Japanese insurers will continue to come from from consecutive natural catastrophe losses in their operations in Japan. financial markets, including the equity, interest rate, currency and credit markets.” The major life and non-life groups are managing their foreign insurance subsidiaries adequately on the whole, which is positive for their business diversification. Insurers’ capital buffers continue to strengthen by increasing retained earnings and hybrid issuance. Japan's Life and Non-Life Insurers - Rating Changes Fitch continues to believe that the largest risks for Japanese insurers stem from financial markets. Upgrades (LHS) Downgrades (LHS) Downgrades/Upgrades (RHS) Sustained low yields in Japan lead insurers to seek higher returns by increasing credit risk, (No.) (x) especially outside Japan, which carries currency risk. Interest-rate, stock-market, currency and 10 5 credit risks are the most important influences on Japanese insurers’ creditworthiness. 8 4 Rating Outlook: Stable 6 3 Fitch eliminated the “top down” sovereign rating constraint and substituted an enhanced “bottom- up” analysis of country risk in the criteria we adopted in January 2019. Fitch upgraded the 4 2 majority of rated Japanese life and non-life insurers’ Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings, which had been constrained by Japan’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (A/Stable), given their financial 2 1 fundamentals and business profiles. As a result, the outlook for ratings in 2020 is Stable. 0 0 Rating Distribution Weighting: Investment Grade 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Japanese insurers are rated between 'BBB+' and 'AA-'. Insurers with better credit profiles tend to Source: Fitch Ratings have access to quality business, and apply prudent underwriting strategies in both Japan and overseas. A healthy solvency buffer, sound profitability and operating stability are also key Japan's Life and Non-Life Insurers - Rating Distribution influencing factors. (No.) 8 6 What to Watch 4 Super low yield environment forces life insurers to invest more in foreign assets 2 Global group management and governance at Japanese major insurance groups Continued hybrid debt issuance 0 AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ & Underwriting to remain sound on the whole for life insurers, although stricter regulations Lower restrain some specific segments Source: Fitch Ratings Catastrophe risks remain the biggest underwriting risks for non-life insurers Outlook │ 29 November 2019 Fitchratings.com/Outlooks 1 Insurance Life and Non-Life Insurance Japan Increasing Foreign Credit Investments – Positive Spread, Rising Credit Risk General Account Assets Breakdown: Life Insurers Fitch expects Japanese life insurers to keep increasing their investment allocations to foreign- Foreign securities Domestic stocks JGBs currency fixed-income in the hunt for higher yield. This is due to the low yields on Japanese (%) government bonds (JGBs). For example, the 20-year JGB yield has been well below 1% for nearly 80 four years, while the yield curve has moderately steepened in the last six months. Major insurers 60 are raising exposure to credit risks, including illiquid infrastructure loans, by using the expertise of their foreign insurance subsidiaries or their groups’ foreign asset-management companies. 40 Currency Risk More Likely to Rise Gradually 20 We believe increased investments in foreign-currency bonds will prompt more insurers to manage their growing currency and asset/liability management risks. Most insurers that have boosted 0 their foreign-bond assets have hedged against currency risk on the majority of their positions and Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Sep 19 strengthened their risk-management focus. However, the cost of hedging currency risks remains Source: Fitch Ratings, Companies high, so most insurers plan to raise their non-hedged positions for 2020. We believe insurers should be able to retain a positive investment spread unless the Japanese yen appreciates Gap Between Guaranteed Interest Core Profit & Investment Spread: Lifers substantially. and Investment Return: Life Insurers Core profit Investment spread (JPYbn) Importance of Overseas Business Opportunities and Risks Guaranteed Investment return (%) 3,000 Fitch expects insurers to continue expanding overseas, driven by a saturated domestic market – 3.5 especially for life insurance – caused by an ageing population and shrinking workforce. The 2,000 country’s four major life insurance groups and three major non-life insurance groups are likely to 3.0 continue acquiring insurers in the US, the UK and Australia (see table on the following page). 2.5 1,000 2.0 These developed markets will immediately provide significant additional premiums and earnings 0 after acquisition. These markets are mature, but we believe their growing populations will provide 1.5 moderate growth for Japanese insurers. Meanwhile, a few major non-life groups started to divest Sep19 Mar17 Mar15 Mar16 Mar18 Mar19 their unnecessary foreign subsidiaries, which is positive for their credit profiles. Mar14 Mar09 Mar14 Mar08 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar15 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar07 Note: Sep 19 numbers are annualised ones Source: Fitch Ratings, Companies Source: Fitch Ratings, Companies Solvency Margin: Life Insurers Solvency Margin: Non-Life Insurers Unrealised gain on marketable securities Unrealised gain on marketable securities Retained earnings, reserves, etc. Retained earnings, reserves, etc. (JPYtrn) (JPYtrn) 50 16 Negative Impact from Stricter Regulations in a Few Segments 40 12 The Japanese government has tightened regulation in a few segments, which will have a negative 30 8 20 impact on the revenues of Japanese life insurers. 4 10 0 For example, the Japanese tax authority introduced stricter standard for tax-saving type products 0 for SMEs. As a result, the sales of this type of product fell substantially. Another example is the Sep19 Mar16 Mar19 Mar15 Mar17 Mar18 stronger guidelines on the disclosure of risks when insurers sell foreign currency-denominated Mar14 Sep19 Mar14 Mar19 Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar15 Source: Fitch Ratings, Companies insurance products to unsophisticated customers, such as elderly people. This is likely to dampen Source: Fitch Ratings, Companies sales of these products. However, Fitch believes Japanese life insurers’ underwriting profits will not be much affected by the changes as the profitability of these segments is not very high. Outlook │ 29 November 2019 Fitchratings.com/Outlooks 2 Insurance Life and Non-Life Insurance Japan Hybrid Issuance Continues to Sustain Sound Capital Adequacy Hybrid Issuance by Japanese Insurers in 2018-2019 Fitch expects accumulation of retained earnings and capital reserves. The average statutory Issuer Security Issuance Maturity Amount solvency margin ratio of the nine traditional life insurers was 1,013% at end-September 2019, up Meiji Yasuda Life Sub debt Apr 18 Apr 48 USD1bn from 935% a year earlier, and that of the four major non-life insurers rose to 801% from 762%. Nippon Life Sub debt Apr 18 Apr 48 JPY100bn Insurers are also likely to keep strengthening their capital by issuing hybrid securities. Japanese Asahi Mutual Life Sub debt Aug 18 Perpetual USD430m insurers treat hybrid securities as regulatory capital in their solvency margin ratios, partly so they Nippon Life Sub debt Sep 18 Sep 48 JPY120bn can maintain their credit ratings when undertaking major M&A. Meiji Yasuda Life Kikin Sep 18 Sep 23 JPY50bn Life Insurers: Persistent Interest-Rate Risk Mitsui Sumitomo Sub debt Mar 19 Perpetual USD0.9bn Fitch estimates that the asset duration of traditional life insurers is three to 10 years shorter than Dai-ichi Life Holdings Sub debt Mar 19 Perpetual JPY85bn their liability duration. We view the pace of narrowing in the asset/liability duration mismatch will Nippon Life Sub debt Apr 19 Apr 49 JPY90bn continue to be slow if JGB yields remain low. Sensitivity analysis shows that at end-March 2019, a Sumitomo Life Sub debt Jun 19 Jun 79 JPY50bn 0.5% decrease in the risk-free rate would have caused a moderate rise of up to 16% in European Nippon Life Kikin Aug 19 Aug 24 JPY50bn embedded value (EEV), compared with up to 12% a year earlier. This demonstrates high balance- Meiji Yasuda Life Kikin Aug 19 Aug 24 JPY50bn sheet sensitivity to interest-rate changes. Fukoku Life Kikin Aug 19 Aug 24 JPY12bn Aioi Nissay Dowa Sub debt Sep 19 Sep 79 JPY50bn Life insurers’ economic value-based surplus would compress if the yield curve were to further Dai-ichi Life Holdings Sub debt Sep 19 Perpetual JPY65bn flatten, as the economic value of liabilities rises by more than the economic value of assets. Meiji Yasuda Life Sub debt Sep 19
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