EESTIMATINGstimating theTHE IMPACTImpact OFof THEthe PRESIDENTIALPresidential CAMPAIGNCampaign ofOF DDONALDonald J. TRUMPTrump ONon HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration and AND VVOTINGoting inIN HHARRISarris COUNTYCounty

RICHARDRichard MMURRAY*urray* ANDand JERONIMOJeronimo CCORTINA**ortina**

I. INTRODUCTION 4545 n.II. REVIEWINGReviewing HHISPANICispanic PPOPULATIONopulation GGROWTHrowth andAND LAGGINGLagging POLITICALPolitical PPARTICIPATIONarticipation in IN HHARRISarris CCOUNTYounty...... 5050 III. PATTERNSPatterns ofOF HISPANICHispanic VOTERVoter REGISTRATIONRegistration AACROSScross HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty INin RECENTRecent YEARSYears ...... 5353 IV. NON-PARTISANNon-Partisan EEFFORTSfforts inIN 20162016 TO to INCREASE Increase HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration and ANI) VVOTINGoting inIN HHARRISarris COUNTYCounty...... 5555 V. CONCLUSION:Conclusion: WILLWill THEthe TRUMPTrump CANDIDACYCandidacy MATTERMatter INin HARRISHarris COUNTY?County? ...... 5858

I. INTRODUCTIONIntroduction

In June 2014, I1 (Richard(Richard Murray) wrote a report forfor thethe officeoffice of HarrisHarris County Attorney Vince RyanRyan entitledentitled "Increasing“Increasing Hispanic Voter Registra-Registra­ tion andand ParticipationParticipation inin Harris County,County, Texas:Texas: ChangingChanging DemographicsDemographics Suggest anan AlternativeAlternative Approach."Approach.” ThatThat report notednoted that Texas oftenoften ranked deaddead last among the fiftyfifty statesstates inin votervoter turnout, turnout, andand thatthat HarrisHarris County had the lowest level ofof votervoter registrationregistration as a percentage of voting age populationpopulation (VAP) of thethe largelarge urbanurban counties inin Texas.Texas. TheThe principalprincipal reason for these poor rankings waswas thethe veryvery lowlow levels ofof registeringregistering andand voting among Hispanic Texans inin thethe statestate as aa wholewhole andand HarrisHarris County in particular.'

* Professor of Political Science,Science. BobBob LanierLanier Chair in Urban Public Policy,Policy, University of Houston. Director ofof Surveying, Hobby Center forfor PublicPublic Policy,Policy, University of Houston. Ph.D., Political Science,Science. UniversityUniversity of Minnesota.Minnesota. M.A.M.A. andand B.A.,B.A.. Government, Government. LouisianaLouisiana StateState University. **•* Associate Professor,Professor, Department ofof Political Science andand the Center for Mexican Ameri-Ameri­ can Studies. Ph.D., Political Science,Science. ColumbiaColumbia University. M.Phil., Political Science, ColumbiaColumbia University. M.A., PublicPublic Administration,Administration, Columbia University. 1.1. See RICHARDRicharfj MURRAY,Murray, INCREASINGIncri-asing HHISPANICispanic VVonothr R REGISTRATION Registration ANI)ani> PARTICIPATIONParticipation IN HARRISHarris COUNTY,Counit, TEXAS:Texas: CHANGINGChanging DEMOGRAPHIC Demographic SUGGESTSucrihst anAN AALTERNATIVEi ternative AAPPROACHpproach 2-5 2-5 (2014).(2014).

45 46 STCLH HISPANIC Hispanic JOURNALJournal OFof LLAWaw && POLICYPolicy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45

After reviewing census data andand countycounty registrationregistration and votingvoting pat-pat­ terns, I suggestedsuggested that a nonpartisan effort to increase Latino civic engage-engage­ ment by workingworking withwith partnerspartners likelike thethe locallocal RomanRoman CatholicCatholic archdiocesearchdiocese was more likely to bebe successfulsuccessful inin HarrisHarris CountyCounty thanthan partisanpartisan effortsefforts like Battleground Texas which are closely alignedaligned with the DemocraticDemocratic Party or its candidates. There were two reasonsreasons why thisthis mademade sensesense inin mymy opinion.opinion. First, only about one-halfone-half of citizencitizen votingvoting ageage HispanicsHispanics identifyidentify withwith the Democratic Party, with the remainderremainder aboutabout evenlyevenly splitsplit betweenbetween Republi-Republi­ cans and politicalpolitical Independents.Independents. That being the case, itit seemedseemed logicallogical to separate any Latino civiccivic engagementengagement effort fromfrom anan overtlyovertly partisanpartisan (i.e.,(i.e., Democratic) voter drive. Second,Second, censuscensus datadata clearlyclearly showedshowed thatthat thethe great-great­ est growthgrowth in HispanicHispanic citizens of voting age was not inin thethe oldold barriobarrio neighborhoods like Denver Harbor, Magnolia, and SouthSouth Houston that areare strongly Democratic inin partisan elections,elections, butbut inin thethe demographicallydemographically mixedmixed outer suburbansuburban communitiescommunities inin schoolschool districtsdistricts likelike Cypress-Fairbanks, Cypress-Fairbanks, Spring, Katy, and Goose Creek—areasCreek—areas that tendtend toto votevote RepublicanRepublican in par-par­ tisan elections. At the time I wrotewrote thethe 20142014 report,report, itit appearedappeared thatthat bothboth majormajor partiesparties were likely to vigorouslyvigorously competecompete for thethe votesvotes ofof HispanicHispanic AmericansAmericans inin the 20162016 presidentialpresidential election.election. TheThe RepublicanRepublican PartyParty NationalNational CommitteeCommittee had, for example, released an "autopsy“autopsy report"report” afterafter thethe disappointingdisappointing 20122012 defeat of theirtheir nomineenominee MittMitt Romney,Romney, notingnoting that:that: If HispanicHispanic AmericansAmericans perceive that aa GOPGOP nomineenominee oror candidatecandidate does not wantwant themthem inin thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates (i.e.,(i.e., self-deportation),self-deportation), theythey will not pay attention to our next sentence. ItIt doesdoes notnot mattermatter whatwhat we say about education, jobs, or thethe economy;economy; ifif HispanicsHispanics thinkthink we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. . . . We are not a policy committee, but amongamong the stepssteps RepublicansRepublicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond,beyond, wewe mustmust embrace and cham-cham­ pion comprehensive immigration reform.reform.^2 In 2014,2014, thatthat recommendationrecommendation seemed likely to bebe adopted.adopted. AA bipartisanbipartisan comprehensive immigrationimmigration reformreform billbill hadhad passedpassed thethe U.S. Senate by a large margin, and head counts amongamong U.S.U.S. HouseHouse membersmembers showedshowed it en-en­ joyed majoritymajority supportsupport inin thatthat body.body. ProspectiveProspective RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential candidates like U.S. Senator Marco Rubio andand formerformer FloridaFlorida governor Jeb Bush were actively behind the effort,effort, asas werewere manymany GOPGOP governorsgovernors andand other party leaders. Passage of thisthis legislationlegislation wouldwould havehave laidlaid thethe ground-ground­ work for a vigorousvigorous competitioncompetition forfor HispanicHispanic votersvoters acrossacross thethe countrycountry inin 2016, a competition that, in our opinion, wouldwould havehave beenbeen decidedly healthy for ourour politicalpolitical systemsystem inin general,general, andand thethe growing growing LatinoLatino populationpopulation specifically.

2. RepublicanRepublican National National Committee,Committee. Growth and OpportunityOpportunity Project,Project. 2013,2013. at 8. 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 47

However, we nownow knowknow that that comprehensive comprehensive immigration immigration reformreform failed. U.S. HouseHouse ofof Representatives Representatives SpeakerSpeaker JohnJohn Boehner was unableunable to overcome the fiercefierce oppositionopposition ofof TeaTea PartyParty membersmembers ofof thethe RepublicanRepublican Conference and ended up letting the legislationlegislation diedie ratherrather than bring it to the floor and pass itit withwith aa majoritymajority of DemocraticDemocratic votes. TheThe unexpectedunexpected failure of the immigrationimmigration reform billbill suggested the recommendations of thethe Growth and Opportunity ProjectProject on on immigrationimmigration reformreform were were goinggoing to face very strong headwinds in the 20162016 RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential primary.primary. Nota-Nota­ bly, thethe juniorjunior senatorsenator from Texas, Ted Cruz, although himself an immi-immi­ grant with a Cuban American father, was an early declared candidate for the White House who mademade opposition toto immigrationimmigration reform a key element of his strategystrategy for winningwinning thethe GOPGOP nomination.nomination. Strong headwinds became a category five hurricanehurricane in the summer of 2015. OnOn JuneJune 16th,16th, businessmanbusinessman Donald J. Trump and his wife MelaniaMelania rode the escalator down to thethe mainmain floorfloor ofof Trump Trump TowerTower inin Manhattan. Manhattan. Mr. Trump stepped upup to a microphonemicrophone and announced his candidacy for the 2016 RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential nomination. That waswas not especially sur-sur­ prising. Mr. Trump had talked about runningrunning forfor presidentpresident inin previous cy­cy- cles. TheThe surprise surprise waswas thethe content content ofof his his announcement announcement speech—aspeech—a brutalbrutal assault on illegalillegal immigrationimmigration inin generalgeneral andand MexicanMexican immigrantsimmigrants inin particular. "When“When Mexico sends its people,people, they'rethey’re notnot sendingsending theirtheir best. TheyThey are sending people that have lots ofof problems,problems, andand they'rethey’re bringingbringing thosethose problems with [them].[them]. They'reThey’re bringingbringing drugs. They'reThey’re bringingbringing crime.crime. They'reThey’re rapists."rapists.” Mr. Trump went on to bash unfair trade deals,deals, the offshor­offshor- ing ofof AmericanAmerican jobs, andand thethe nationalnational debt as partpart of hishis campaigncampaign toto "Make“Make America Great Again.Again."” However, the majoritymajority of coverage andand re-re­ action focused on hishis attackattack onon illegalillegal immigrationimmigration andand his proposalsproposals to forcibly remove—ifremove—if necessary—thenecessary—the 11 oror 1212 millionmillion undocumented undocumented per-per­ sons inin thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates andand toto ensureensure theythey couldcould notnot returnreturn by building a great wall alongalong ourour southernsouthern border andand makemake MexicoMexico pay for it. No presidentialpresidential candidate since George C. Wallace hadhad usedused anythinganything approaching thisthis language and tone in the publicpublic sphere,sphere, andand the AlabamaAlabama governor never camecame closeclose to seizingseizing thethe nominationnomination ofof aa majormajor politicalpolitical party. A year later, Donald Trump is the prospective Republican nominee, having driven 1616 otherother RepublicansRepublicans out of thethe race,race, includingincluding candidatescandidates like JebJeb Bush,Bush, ScottScott Walker,Walker, ChrisChris Christie,Christie, andand MarcoMarco RubioRubio thatthat were considered "first“first tier"tier” contenders and moderates on immigrationimmigration reform, in 48 STCLH HHISPANICispanic JJOURNALournal of OF L LAWaw && POLICYPolicy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45 contrast to thethe 69-year-old69-year-old New Yorker who had nevernever run forfor publicpublic office.office.^3 The totally unpredictedunpredicted success of The Donald in pulling off a hostilehostile takeover of a majormajor AmericanAmerican political party qualifies in our opinion as a black swan event.event. Black swan events werewere discusseddiscussed byby NassimNassim NicholasNicholas Taleb in hishis 20012001 bookbook Fooled by Randomness,Randomness, and extended in his 20072007 book The BlackBlack Swan.Swan. According to Taleb, a black swanswan event hashas threethree attributes. First,First, itit isis anan outlier,outlier, asas itit fallsfalls soso farfar outsideoutside thethe realmrealm ofof normalnormal expectations becausebecause nothingnothing inin the past suggestssuggests it isis possible.possible. Second,Second, because it isis totallytotally unexpected,unexpected, itit producesproduces anan extremeextreme impact.impact. Third, inin spite of itsits essential unpredictability, human nature leads us to concoct after the fact explanations that trytry (unsuccessfully(unsuccessfully in TalebTaleb's’s opinion)opinion) toto explainexplain the event inin hindsighthindsight andand argueargue thatthat itit waswas predictable.predictable. The profoundprofound impact of Donald J. Trump'sTrump’s effectiveeffective capture of thethe Republican nomination withwith hishis victoryvictory in the May 3, 2016,2016, IndianaIndiana Pri-Pri­ mary has become more evident in the weeks since his GOP rivalsrivals leftleft thethe field of battle.battle. First,First, Mr.Mr. TrumpTrump hashas confoundedconfounded conventionalconventional wisdomwisdom byby making it clear that he isis notnot aboutabout toto changechange hishis combativecombative stylestyle withwith anyany sort of "pivot“pivot toto thethe center."center.” HeHe alsoalso continuescontinues toto runrun aa totallytotally differentdifferent campaign than any otherother prospectiveprospective nomineenominee in modernmodem history—nohistory—no poll-poll­ sters, no strategists, littlelittle paid mediamedia budget,budget, andand littlelittle coordination with the party'sparty’s nationalnational leadersleaders and committees. NorNor hashas hehe backedbacked awayaway fromfrom his hardline positions on unfair trade deals and putting America first in interna-interna­ tional relations. But mostmost importantly,importantly, Donald Trump has doubled down inin his attacksattacks onon illegalillegal immigrants,immigrants, stressingstressing the necessitynecessity ofof removingremoving allall undocumented persons from the United States, including their minorminor chil-chil­ dren even ifif thethe youngstersyoungsters areare AmericanAmerican citizens.citizens. And,And, hehe continuescontinues to make clear at every mass rally he holds that he isis going toto buildbuild aa massivemassive wall from Texas to California and make Mexico paypay forfor it. MostMost recently,recently, TrumpTmmp has launchedlaunched a frontalfrontal attackattack onon GonzaloGonzalo Curiel,Curiel, thethe federalfederal judge presiding over the Trump University trialtrial in San Diego, because he is of Mexican origin,origin, whichwhich disqualifiesdisqualifies him him in in thethe eyes of thethe NewNew YorkYork businessman. The political impact of the Trump candidacy hashas varied.varied. In statesstates like Massachusetts, thousands of registered Democrats changed their party re-

3. CharlieCharlie Cook, Cook, one one of of the the most most respected respected election election handicappers handicappers inin AmericanAmerican politicspolitics wrote an articlearticle thatthat appearedappeared in in March March 7, 7, 2015 2015 edition edition of of NAT'L Nat’l J. J. MAG.Mac., titled.titled, The Early Betting Line forfor 2016. Cook identified 1616 possiblepossible contenders for the GOP nominationnomination with the mostmost likely nominees being either formerformer FloridaFlorida Governor Jeb BushBush (35%(35% chance) or Wisconsin Gov-Gov­ ernor Scott Walker (also 35%), or U.S.U.S. SenatorsSenators Ted Cruz (10%), or Rand Paul (10%). Collec-Collec­ tively, Cook gave the remainingremaining 1212 Republicans aa 10% shot atat being the nominee. DonaldDonald J. Trump was not mentionedmentioned in thethe article.article. 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic RREGISTRATIONegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 49 gistration toto vote (mostly) forfor thethe NewNew YorkerYorker inin thethe Republican Republican Primary.Primary. Overall, turnout inin thethe GOPGOP primariesprimaries andand caucuses caucuses isis the highest in history, and TrumpTrump's’s strong appealappeal toto blueblue collarcollar whites may put rust beltbelt states like Michigan in play this fall for the first time since 1988.1988. TrumpTrump rallies have produced huge crowds, includedincluded largelarge numbersnumbers ofof anti-Trump anti-Trump demonstra-demonstra­ tors, and featured physicalphysical confrontationsconfrontations at at a alevel level notnot seenseen since thethe 1960s. But, the question wewe focus on isis whatwhat effecteffect willwill DonaldDonald J.J. Trump'sTrump’s candidacy havehave among Hispanic Americans? NationalNational surveyssurveys showshow a strong backlash against Mr. Trump, withwith unfavorable ratings among Latinos in the range of 80 toto 8888 percent,percent, withwith "very“very unfavorable"unfavorable” assessments well in excess ofof 5050 percent.percent. Given thatthat Harris CountyCounty has both the largest Hispanic population of any county in Texas, and alsoalso has had oneone ofof the lowest levels ofof LatinoLatino registration andand voting, voting, itit isis ofof more than passing interest toto assessassess the im­im- pact of aa TrumpTrump nomination and campaign onon local Latino engagement in the 2016 presidential election.election. InIn doingdoing so,so, we recall NiccoloNiccolo Machiavelli'sMachiavelli’s advice in The Prince that fear is aa moremore powerfulpowerful forceforce inin politicspolitics thanthan love.'love.*^ FiveFive centuriescenturies later,later, political scientistscientist MelissaMelissa Michelson,Michelson, thethe authorauthor of Mobilizing Inclusion: Transforming the Electorate Through Get-Out-the- Vote Campaigns, reaches the same conclusion. InIn aa recentrecent interview with a New YorkYork TimesTimes reporter aboutabout reactionreaction toto the prospective Trump nomina-nomina­ tion, ProfessorProfessor Michelson notednoted thatthat ‘—“[i]t's[ijt’s hardhard to encourageencourage people to participate based based on on good good thingsthings happening,happening,'’ . . .. . 'Fear‘Fear andand threatsthreats areare much moremore powerfulpowerful motivators.'motivators.’ "”5^ A recentrecent editorialeditorial inin The HoustonHouston ChronicleChronicle newspaper makes the same point:point: November 8 will bebe aa tellingtelling dayday forfor HispanicHispanic powerpower inin thisthis country.country. For decades, wewe've’ve heardheard how thethe politicalpolitical landscapelandscape of AmericaAmerica in general and Texas in particularparticular willwill undergo a revolution when citiciti-­ zens ofof HispanicHispanic heritageheritage finallyfinally votevote inin number number commensuratecommensurate with their growing population.population.

Alas, nevernever before has this potential decisive voting bloc hadhad a moremore dynamic reason to register and gogo to the polls. IfIf Trump's Trump’s repugnantrepugnant rhetoric isnisn't’t enough to drivedrive recordrecord numbers ofof Hispanics to castcast

4. See NiccoloNiccol6 Machiavelli,Machiavelli, Concerning Cruelty and Clemency, and Whether it is Better to be Loved,Loved, thanthan Feared, inin THEThe PPRINCErince (Univ. (Univ. of of Chi. Chi. 1998) 1998) (("Returning“Reluming to to the the question question ofof being loved or feared,feared. I1 sum up by saying, thatthat since his beingbeing lovedloved dependsdepends uponupon his subjects,subjects, while his being fearedfeared depends upon himself,himself, a wise Prince should build on what is his own, andand not on what rests withwith others.").others.”). 5. CarolCarol Pogash, Unsettling U.S. Political Climate GavanizesCavanizes Muslims to Vote, N.Y. TIMES, TiMn.s, June 1,1, 2016,2016, http://wwhttp://www.nytimes.com/2016A)6/02yus/unsettling-political-climate-galvanizes-mus w.nytimes.com/2016/06/02/us/unsettling-poli tical-cli mate-gal vani zes-mus lims-to-vote.htmllims-to-vote.html 50 STCLH HHISPANICispanic JJOURNALournal of OF L LAWaw && POLICYPolicy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45

ballots, his frighteningfrightening campaign promise to createcreate aa "deportation“deportation force"force” to hunt down and expel 1111 million people living in thisthis coun-coun­ try should provide thethe ultimateultimate motivation.motivation.^6 Whether thisthis doesdoes or does not happen is an open question that we try to shed light on. We begin by reviewing the recent history of Hispanic popula-popula­ tion growth in HarrisHarris County. As we approachapproach the 20162016 election,election, we areare particularly interested in thethe HispanicHispanic citizen votingvoting ageage populationpopulation or CVAP as measuredmeasured by the AmericanAmerican Community Survey. Next, wewe reviewreview the participationparticipation rates of SpanishSpanish surnamesurname votersvoters inin presidentialpresidential GeneralGeneral Elections from 1996 to 2012.2012. Then,Then, wewe comparecompare registrationregistration patternspatterns of Spanish surname voters on the Harris County rolls over the lastlast five years. We also review current efforts underway in Harris County to increaseincrease His-His­ panic participation. Finally, based on the typical pattern of HispanicHispanic regis-regis­ tration and voting, we project first what would most likelylikely have occurred if the 2016 RepublicanRepublican nominee was a normal candidate—thatcandidate—that is toto saysay not Donald J. Trump—butTrump—but ratherrather aa sittingsitting oror formerformer governorgovernor oror U.S.U.S. senatorsenator running on a GOP platform similar to 2008 or 2012. Finally, we adjust our projection to account for the TrumpTrump factor.factor.

II. REVIEWINGReviewing HISPANIC Hispanic POPULATION Population GROWTH Growth AND and LAGGING Lagging POLITICALPolitical PPARTICIPATIONarticipation inIN HHARRISarris COUNTYCounty

The HoustonHouston area waswas settledsettled byby "Anglos"“Anglos” (non-Hispanic(non-Hispanic whites)whites) inin the 1820s1820s and 1830s.1830s. A Black sizeable minority of enslaved African Ameri-Ameri­ cans were also among the earliest residents of Harris County, but veryvery few persons of Hispanic origin resided in the area until after 19001900 when the City of HoustonHouston began its rapidrapid growthgrowth intointo aa majormajor metropolitanmetropolitan area.area. TheThe booming local economy during and after World War IIII acceleratedaccelerated in-mi-in-mi­ gration, which included large numbers of Latinos from other parts of Texas as well as new arrivals from Mexico and CentralCentral America.America. Table One sum-sum­ marizes the growth of the Hispanic population in Harris County from 19801980 to 2014.2014.

6. Election Impact: Votes Need to do TheirTheir Homework as TheyThey ContemplateContemplate the HistoricHistoric November Election, Hous. CHRON.,Chron., June 2,2, 2016,2016, http://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/edihttp://www.houstonchromc1e.coni/opinion/edi torials/article/Election-impact-7960565.php.torials/article/Election-impact-7960.S6.S.php. 2016] IMPACTImpact onON HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 51

TABLETable ONE:One: THEThe GROWING Growing HISPANIC Hispanic PRESENCE Presence inIN HARRISHarris COUNTY:County: 19801980-2014 — 2014

Total PopulationPopulation Hispanic Population Hispanic Percentage 19801980 2,409,547 369,077 15.3215.32 19901990 2,818,199 644,935 644.935 22.88 2000 3,400,578 1,119,7511,119,751 32.93 2010 4,092,459 1,671,5401.671,540 40.84 2014 4,441.3704,441,370 1,885,5401.885,540 42.45 Source: U.S.U.S. CensusesCensuses forfor populationpopulation on AprilApril 1,I, 1980,1980, 1990,1990,2000, 2000, and 2010. 2014 data is an estimate from the American Community Survey forfor July 1st.1st.

These data make it clear that the singlesingle biggestbiggest driverdriver inin overalloverall countycounty population growth growth since since 19801980 has been thethe increaseincrease inin locallocal HispanicHispanic numbers. Political engagement as measured in registering to vote and voting hashas lagged farfar below overall populationpopulation growth. This reflectsreflects fourfour basicbasic factors:factors: (1) Many Hispanic residents ofof Harris County areare notnot U.S. citizens.citizens. The booming HoustonHouston economyeconomy attractedattracted very largelarge numbersnumbers of Hispanic residents fromfrom outsideoutside the United States between 19861986 and 2007, whichwhich drovedrove thethe non-citizennon-citizen adultadult populationpopulation of LatinosLatinos above 50 percent.percent. (2) The HispanicHispanic populationpopulation is youngeryounger thanthan otherother areaarea residentresident groups, so among thosethose LatinosLatinos whowho areare citizenscitizens byby birthbirth oror natu-natu­ ralization a higher proportion areare youngeryounger thanthan 18 years old. (3) And among Hispanics citizens of votingvoting ageage (CVAP),(CVAP), registrationregistration levels havehave laggedlagged behindbehind thosethose forfor locallocal AnglosAnglos andand AfricanAfrican Americans. (4) And finally, amongamong thethe HispanicHispanic CVAPCVAP whowho areare registered,registered, turn-turn­ out in elections also consistentlyconsistently is wellwell belowbelow thethe percentagepercentage for other registrants. An easy wayway toto measuremeasure the combined impact ofof these factors is to look atat voting patterns inin the lastlast fivefive presidentialpresidential GeneralGeneral ElectionsElections inin HarrisHarris County. Hector de Leon at thethe HarrisHarris County ClerkClerk's’s office hashas matchingmatching individual Spanish surnamessurnames on on thethe countycounty votervoter listlist withwith the people who actually cast ballots in these elections. TheThe resultsresults areare summarizedsummarized in Table Two. 52 STCLH HISPANICHispanic J JOURNALournal of OF Law LAW & &Policy POLICY [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45

TABLETable Two:Two: SPANISHSpanish SURNAMESurname VOTERSVoters INin HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty PRESIDENTIALPresidential ELECTIONS:Elections: 19961996 —- 2012

Total Total Spanish Year Registration Voters Surname Voters SS % 19961996 1,597,2111,597,211 871,656 51,950 5.96 20(X)2000 1,886,6611,886,661 995,631 81,365 8.17 2004 1,876,2961,876,296 1,088,793 1,088,793 115,919 10.65 2008 1,892,656 1,892,656 1,188,7311,188,731 134,953134.953 11.1311.13 2012 1,942,566 1,204,1671,204,167 179,599 179,599 14.9114.91 Source: RegistrationRegistration data is fromfrom thethe websitewebsite ElectionElection ArchivesArchives at thethe websitewebsite HarrisHarrisVotes Votes in the Office of thethe HarrisHarris CountyCounty Tax-AssessorTax-Assessor Collector. The countcount ofof SpanishSpanish surnamesurname votersvoters waswas provided by Hector de Leon in the Office of the HarrisHarris CountyCounty Clerk.Clerk.

Comparing Tables One and Two, we notenote thethe hugehuge disparitydisparity betweenbetween the HispanicHispanic population share share inin HarrisHarris CountyCounty andand thethe share of thethe presidential vote cast by Spanish surnamesurname voters. InIn 19961996 HispanicsHispanics werewere about 28 percent of thethe totaltotal population,population, butbut SpanishSpanish surnamesurname votersvoters werewere less thanthan sixsix percentpercent ofof thethe NovemberNovember electorate.electorate. ByBy 2012,2012, thethe HispanicHispanic population share exceeded 4040 percent in HarrisHarris County,County, butbut thethe SpanishSpanish surname vote totaled less than 1515 percent.percent. The other main pattern that emerges in Table Two is thatthat despitedespite thethe huge differencedifference in LatinoLatino populationpopulation and presidentialpresidential vote share,share, thethe Hispanic electorate actuallyactually tripledtripled betweenbetween 1996 and 20122012 fromfrom aboutabout 52,000 voters to nearly 180,000,180,000, and its share of the totaltotal electorateelectorate rose by 150150 percent. Particularly notablenotable waswas thethe big jump from thethe firstfirst ObamaObama election in 2008, to hishis reelectionreelection inin 20122012 —- a gaingain ofof 45,00045,000 SpanishSpanish surname voters, oror twice as muchmuch asas thethe 2004-20082004-2008 increase.increase. ThisThis likelylikely reflected, as the 2013 Republican NationalNational CommitteeCommittee reportedreported referenced,referenced, the fallout from candidate Mitt RomneyRomney's’s suggestionsuggestion thatthat conditionsconditions shouldshould be made soso uncomfortableuncomfortable for undocumentedundocumented persons in the UnitedUnited StatesStates that they would voluntarily self deport to theirtheir countriescountries of origin.origin. Short-term factors aside, the underlining important driver of this shiftshift has been the steady growth of citizen Hispanics of voting age. In the 1990s,1990s, more than one half of the Latino adult population in Harris County werewere notnot U.S. citizens. By 2014, citizens outnumbered non-citizens by about a 58-42 ration. This shift isis partlypartly duedue toto increasing increasing numbersnumbers ofof Hispanic Hispanic immigrants becoming naturalized citizens.citizens. But, of greatergreater importanceimportance has been the increase in natural born Hispanic citizenship. TheThe 20082008 AmericanAmerican community survey estimated that of the 1,005,9271,005,927 Hispanics 1818 and older in Harris County, 359,294 were native bom.born. The 2012 ACS found that of the 1,152,1491,152,149 voting age Latinos in the county, 475,284 were bornbom in thethe United States. This trendtrend isis acceleratingaccelerating becausebecause netnet immigrationimmigration fromfrom Mexico, the most importantimportant country of origin forfor HispanicsHispanics inin HarrisHarris 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HHISPANICispanic RREGISTRATIONegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 53

County, has been essentially zero for nearly a decade,decade, whilewhile thethe childrenchildren bornbom toto the large undocumented populationpopulation thatthat entered entered the the U.S. U.S. in the late 1980s and 1990s areare now reachingreaching voting age. Table Three shows the sizeablesizeable impactimpact ofof increased increased naturalizationnaturalization and native-born Hispanics Hispanics in in HamsHarris County. County. The The ACS ACS estimateestimate of of CVAP in Harris CountyCounty from from the the 2006-2010 2006-2010 surveyssurveys was was 530,490.530,490. The 2010-2014 data estimateestimate thisthis populationpopulation to to be be 646,875, 646,875, anan increase ofof 116,385.

TABLETable THREE:Three: HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty CITIZENCitizen VOTINGVoting AGEAge POPULATION Population AAVERAGEDveraged overOVER 5-Y5-YEARSears OFof DATAData FROMfrom THEthe AMERICANAmerican COMMUNITYCommunity SURVEYSurvey

2006-2010 2010-2014 Growth Rate Difference Hispanic or Latino 530,490 646,875 22% 116,385 Not Hispanic or Latino 1,700,060 1,788,755 5% 88,695 Total 2,230,550 2,435,635 9% 205,085 Source: U.S.U.S. CensusCensus -- American American Community Community SurveySurvey 55 year year estimates. estimates, https://www.census.gov/rdo/ https://www.census.gov/rdo/ data/voting_age_population_by_citizenship_and_race_cvap.html

III.HI. PATTERNSPatterns OF of HISPANIC Hispanic VOTER Voter REGISTRATION Registration ACROSSAcross HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty INin RECENTRecent YEARSYears Since the passage of the Help America VoteVote ActAct (HAVA)(HAVA) in 2002, the overall pattern of voter registration in Harris County over four-year periods follows aa predictablepredictable pattern.pattern. In the year of a presidential election, registra-registra­ tion rises quite a bit as new enrollees,enrollees, attractedattracted by the coming battlebattle for the White House, either signsign up on their own or are encouraged toto dodo so by various partisan and non-partisan votervoter registration drives.drives. ButBut after the presidential volevote in November, enrollmentenrollment totals drop as HAVA-mandated processes "clean“clean upup"” thethe rollsrolls ofof persons whowho failed to cast ballots, or who are no longerlonger residingresiding atat theirtheir originaloriginal registrationregistration address. Then,Then, as thethe next presidential cycle approaches,approaches, the replenishment of the overall registra-registra­ tion totalstotals begins again.again. In 2011, forfor example,example. HectorHector dede LeonLeon ranran anan analysisanalysis ofof thethe HarrisHarris County voter rolls by TexasTexas HouseHouse ofof Representative Representative districtsdistricts andand foundfound total registration waswas 1,868,034, oror lowerlower thanthan thethe countycounty totaltotal threethree yearsyears earlier when the Barack Obama/John McCain McCain election election occurred.occurred. However, by NovemberNovember of 2012,2012, thethe totaltotal registeredregistered vote countcount inin thethe countycounty hadhad reached 1,942,566, which was aboutabout 50,000 moremore thanthan the total in NovemNovem-­ ber 2008. This cyclicalcyclical presidentialpresidential surgesurge and decline inin registrationregistration over each four-year period isis most pronounced among Latino voters. The surge in the buildup to each presidential election is greatestgreatest among HispanicsHispanics becausebecause 54 STCLH HISPANIC Hispanic JOURNALJournal ofOF LLAWaw & POLICYPolicy [Vol. 1:45 they have a lowerlower basebase ofof registration registration to beginbegin withwith butbut havehave byby farfar thethe highest growth in citizens ofof votingvoting ageage compared compared toto four four yearsyears earlier.earlier. The Anglo CVAPCVAP population,population, byby contrast,contrast, hashas beenbeen decliningdeclining inin Harris Harris CountyCounty since the latelate 1990s.1990s. However,However, the the decline decline in in total total registration registration ofof LatinosLatinos after each presidential electionelection is alsoalso greatergreater because fewerfewer registeredregistered His- panics cast ballotsballots inin thethe NovemberNovember presidential presidential electionelection andand subsequentsubsequent contests, and are thus more likely to bebe placedplaced onon thethe "suspense"“suspense” listlist andand eventually be removedremoved asas partpart of the HAVA cleanup.cleanup. Plus,Plus, thethe youngeryounger andand more mobile Hispanic CVAP isis lessless likely likely to to be be at at their their original original registrationregistration address and toto havehave votervoter registration registration renewalrenewal cardscards returnedreturned asas undeliverable. We cancan seesee thisthis patternpattern inin TableTable Four,Four, whichwhich showsshows thethe SpanishSpanish sur-sur­ name count of registeredregistered voters across the 24 TexasTexas HouseHouse ofof Representa- Representa­ tive districtsdistricts inin HarrisHarris County inin NovemberNovember 20122012 as as compared compared toto January January 2016. 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic RREGISTRATIONegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 55

TABLETable FOUR:Four: NUMBERNumber OFof HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty SPANISHSpanish SURNAMESurname RREGISTEREDegistered VVOTERSoters INin STATEState REPRESENTATIVERepresentative DISTRICTS:Districts: NNOVEMBERovember 2012 2012 ANDand JJANUARYanuary 2016 2016

November 2012 January 20162016 District SSV TotalTotal SSV % SSV Total SSV % 126 12,272 13.92 12,213 12.78 12.78 127 10,468 10.67 10.67 11,032 10.18 128 14,484 15.92 14,735 15.61 129 12,227 12.24 11,467 10.89 130 9,585 9.68 10,337 9.07 131 13,074 17.60 13,408 16.71 132 15,121 18.07 16,364 16.23 133 6,587 6.41 5,614 5.31 134 8,252 7.10 6,742 5.58 135 13,410 15.92 13,541 14.56 137 10,054 20.94 8,066 16.14 138 14,780 19.58 14,337 17.63 139 13,565 15.48 14,552 15.84 140 28,836 54.06 28,097 49.48 141 10,123 14.67 10,251 13.73 142 12,549 17.67 13,436 17.31 143 32,586 51.96 27,844 44.13 144 26,898 49.28 26,252 48.18 145 31,885 53.09 29,845 46.91 146 7,973 9.42 7,392 8.68 147 14,164 14.95 14,233 14.33 148 28,034 39.09 24,996 33.04 33.04 149 12,142 15.68 11,707 14.56 150 10,785 11.46 11,556 10.56 TOTAL 369,945 19.04 358,017 17.20 Source: SpanishSpanish surnamesurname countcount fromfrom HectorHector dede Leon,Leon, organizedorganized byby HouseHouse districts districts byby RichardRichard Murray.Murray. Table Four shows thatthat fewerfewer SpanishSpanish surnamesurname voters were on thethe Harris CountyCounty rollsrolls atat thethe beginning beginning of of 20162016 than waswas thethe casecase in November 2012. And while the count waswas upup inin 11 of thethe 24 locallocal TexasTexas HouseHouse of Representative districts, the Spanish surname percentage of allall registrantsregistrants had declined in every district. Based on the last three presidentialpresidential cycles,cycles, we expect the totaltotal numbernumber ofof Spanish surname votersvoters willwill growgrow as the fall election approaches,approaches, and the overall percentage ofof the county totaltotal shouldshould rise, but by how muchmuch remainsremains to be seen.

IV. NON-PARTISANNon-Partisan EFFORTS Efforts INin 2016 2016 TO to INCREASE Increase HISPANIC Hispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VVOTINGoting inIN HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty

In addition to the usual efforts by the major political parties to increase the voter rolls in areasareas where they expect to do well,well, wewe identifiedidentified threethree 56 STCLH HISPANIC Hispanic JOURNAL Journal OFof LLAWaw && POLICY Policy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45 non-partisan effortsefforts thanthan will be activeactive inin addingadding LatinoLatino votersvoters inin HarrisHarris County.County. OneOne efforteffort isis aa continuingcontinuing oneone beingbeing mademade byby TheThe LeagueLeague ofof WomenWomen Voters of HoustonHouston EducationEducation FundFund directeddirected atat enrollingenrolling newlynewly naturalizednaturalized citizens. TableTable FiveFive summarizessummarizes theirtheir activityactivity fromfrom JuneJune 20152015 throughthrough Feb-Feb­ ruary 2016. The LeagueLeague waswas successfullysuccessfully inin registeringregistering 80% of thethe newnew citizens on site,site, ofof whomwhom wewe estimateestimate 5,6595,659 werewere Latinos,Latinos, withwith aboutabout 4,0004,000 being residents of HarrisHarris County.County. IfIf wewe projectproject thesethese effortsefforts throughthrough Octo-Octo­ ber 2016, thethe LeagueLeague efforteffort shouldshould yieldyield anotheranother 4,0004,000 toto 5,0005,000 naturalizednaturalized Hispanic citizens in HarrisHarris County.County.

TABLETable FIVE:Five: NUMBERNumber 01of NATURALIZED Naturalized CITIZENSCitizens ANDand NEWNew VOTERVoter REGISTRATIONSRegistrations

Petitioners Voter Estimated Estimated Naturalization (Naturalized(Naturalized Registrations Rate of Hispanic New Hispanic Ceremonies US Citizens)Citi7.ens) on ssitessite Response Petitioners Reg. VotersVoters 2016 January 1,0051,005 833 83% 392 392 325 February 2,288 1,9091,909 83% 892 741 Subtotal 3.2933.29.-^ 2,742 83% 1,2841,284 1,066 1.066 2015 December 1,4701,470 1,1231,123 76% 573 573 436 November 1,6361.636 1,3831,383 85% 638 542 638 542 October 2,036 1.5761,576 77% 794 611 September 2.456 1,6611,661 68% 958 958 651 August 2,710 2,148 79% 1,0571,057 835 835 July 2,607 2,014 77% 1.0171,017 783 783 June 2,495 1.814 73% 973 710 Subtotal 15,410 11,71911,719 76% 6,010 4,593 TOTAL 2015-162015-16 18,70318,703 14,46114,461 80%80% 7,294 5.6595,659 Source:Source; LeagueLeague ofof Women Women VotersVoters ofof Houston Houston EducationEducation Fund.Fund. Another local focused effort isis beingbeing undertakenundertaken by Mi Familia Vota'sYota's Education Fund, a nationalnational civilcivil rightsrights andand advocacyadvocacy non-profitnon-profit organiza-organiza­ tion "working“working toto uniteunite thethe LatinoLatino communitycommunity andand itsits alliesallies toto promotepromote socialsocial and economiceconomic justice throughthrough increasedincreased civiccivic participation."participation." They strive to expand the electorate through votervoter registrationregistration and GOTVGOTV as wellwell as issueissue organizing in variousvarious statesstates suchsuch asas Arizona,Arizona, California,California, Colorado,Colorado, Florida,Florida, Nevada, and Texas.Texas. Mi Familia Vota-HoustonVota-Houston has concentrated its voter registration efforts among young Latinos inin selectselect highhigh schoolsschools inin thethe countycounty thatthat havehave sizeablesizeable Hispanic enrollments asas well at thethe UniversityUniversity of Houston'sHouston’s mainmain andand downtown campuses and thethe HoustonHouston CommunityCommunity College. In 2015,2015, theythey registered 2,217 new LatinoLatino votersvoters andand addedadded anan additionaladditional 1,0371,037 fromfrom Jan- 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 57 uary to March 2016,2016, of whomwhom 48%48% werewere registeredregistered duringduring thethe RepublicanRepublican presidential debatedebate inin late February atat the UniversityUniversity of Houston.Houston. Mi FamiliasFamilia's high school project is especially promisingpromising as thethe number ofof His­His- panic juniors and seniors in Harris CountyCounty highhigh schoolsschools is rapidly growing, and, as noted earlier, the great majority ofof these students are American citi­citi- zens by birth.'birth.^ Mi Familia Vota-Houston'sVota-Houston's. staff expects thatthat the tone andand rhetoric surrounding thethe presidentialpresidential primaries,primaries, especially especially onon issues that resres-­ onate among young adult Hispanics, like immigration, will substantiallysubstantially in­in- crease voter registrationregistration this year.year. A third major sourcesource ofof efforts to increase Hispanic civic engagement this year is SpanishSpanish languagelanguage media inin thethe HoustonHouston area.area. The most promi-promi­ nent of these numerous effortsefforts isis UnivisionUnivision's’s Vote forfor YourYour America cam­cam- paign. This isis a anon-partisan non-partisan collaborativecollaborative effort betweenbetween thethe largestlargest Spanish language television networknetwork andand severalseveral nationalnational Hispanic organi-organi­ zations.'zations.* TheThe national national campaigncampaign aimsaims toto register register aroundaround three million Lati-Lati­ nos inin 136136 mediamedia marketsmarkets wherewhere UnivisionUnivision hashas televisiontelevision and/orand/or radioradio stations. Given that Harris CountyCounty isis home to nearly four percent of thethe nation'snation’s Hispanic population, the local shareshare ofof thisthis national national registrationregistration effort would exceed 100,000100,000 newnew LatinoLatino registrantsregistrants if thethe campaigncampaign meets its goal. The Vote forfor YourYour America campaign'scampaign’s most aggressive efforteffort to reachreach Latinos is focused on thethe Copa America CentenarioCentenario 2016 soccer tourna-tourna­ ment which Univision projectsprojects willwill attract attract largerlarger average audiences thanthan the 2014 WorldWorld Cup matches. Univision willwill runrun public serviceservice announcementsannouncements promoting thethe importance ofof civic engagementengagement thisthis presidentialpresidential yearyear andand hold voter registration drives outside the stadiums where matches are held. Of particularparticular significancesignificance isis that threethree ofof the gamesgames werewere scheduledscheduled for Houston at NRG Stadium on June 11, June 13, andand June 21. Univision has something of a personal stake inin thethe 20162016 civic engage-engage­ ment project in that theirtheir longlong time news anchor, Jorge Ramos, was ejected from a Donald Trump news conference in Dubuque, IowaIowa on August 25, 2015 after insistinginsisting onon askingasking thethe candidatecandidate aa questionquestion andand beingbeing ignored.ignored. When later escorted back into the conference, aa heatedheated exchangeexchange occurredoccurred as Mr.Mr. Ramos accusedaccused DonaldDonald TrumpTrump ofof "spreading “spreading hate"hate’’ with his attacksattacks

7. In a tallytally wewe compiledcompiled fromfrom thethe TexasTexas EducationEducation Agency'sAgency’s AEISAEIS DistrictsDistricts reportsreports for 2009-2010 andand 2014-2015,2014-2015, we we found found the the number number of of graduating graduating HispanicHispanic seniorsseniors inin HarrisHarris County public schools grewgrew fromfrom 15,290 inin 20092009 toto 21,898 inin 2014.2014. BasedBased on this rate,rate, we expect the graduating classes this year in HarrisHarris County will includeinclude more than 25,00025,000 Latinos.Latinos. 8. UnivisionUnivision's’s partners include the National Council of LaLa RazaRaza (NCLR),(NCLR), thethe NationalNational Council of LatinoUtino ElectedElected OfficialsOfficials (NALEO)(NALEO) Educational Fund, the League of UnitedUnited LatinLaUn American Citizens (LULAC), Democracy Works/TurboWorksaurbo Vote, Voto Latino,Latino, Get Schooled,Schooled, The Latino Coalition, Hispanic Federation,Federation, Mi Familia VowVoia and Rock thethe VoteVote amongamong others.others. 58 STCLH HHISPANICispanic JJOURNALournal of OF L LAWaw && POLICYPolicy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45 on undocumentedundocumented immigrants inin general and personspersons ofof MexicanMexican originorigin specifically.specifically.^9

V. CONCLUSION:Conclusion WILL: Will THE the TRUMP Trump CANDIDACY Candidacy MATTER Matter INin HARRISHarris COUNTY?County?

Our report has documented several important aspects of Hispanic civic engagement in Harris County.County. TheseThese include:include: • There remains a veryvery largelarge gapgap betweenbetween the sizesize ofof thethe HispanicHispanic population in Harris County (now more than 42 percent), and their level of votervoter registrationregistration (less than 20 percent)percent) andand votervoter turnoutturnout (usually less thanthan 1515 percent).percent). • However, the gap has been closing. InIn 1996,1996, SpanishSpanish surnamesurname vot-vot­ ers cast less than six percent of the total presidentialpresidential vote.vote. ByBy 2012, their share was almostalmost 1515 percent.percent. • Underlying this shift is thatthat whilewhile thethe HispanicHispanic adultadult populationpopulation continues to grow, the LatinoLatino citizen votingvoting ageage populationpopulation is in-in­ creasing at an even more rapid rate in Harris County. ThisThis reflectsreflects a steadysteady increaseincrease inin non-citizensnon-citizens goinggoing throughthrough thethe naturalizationnaturalization process in the Houston area, but more important is that the majoritymajority of Latinos coming of voting age in Harris County were bornbom in the United States in contrastcontrast to earlierearlier generations.generations. Both of thesethese trends will continuecontinue forfor thethe foreseeableforeseeable future.future. • Given that thethe adultadult AngloAnglo populationpopulation inin HarrisHarris CountyCounty hashas beenbeen declining for nearly two decades and African American growth lags Hispanic increases, the long-termlong-term prospects for effectiveeffective LatinoLatino civic engagement are promising.promising. • In additionaddition to thesethese long-termlong-term factors, we know inin JuneJune 20162016 thatthat Donald J. Trump hashas vanquishedvanquished hishis sixteensixteen RepublicanRepublican opponents and is nownow thethe presumptivepresumptive GOP nominee. WeWe alsoalso knowknow that he has not "pivoted“pivoted toto thethe middle"middle” asas prospectiveprospective nomineesnominees typicallytypically do, but has doubled down on expelling undocumented persons from the United StatesStates andand buildingbuilding thethe GreatGreat Wall ofof Mexico.Mexico. • These extreme positions by the prospectiveprospective nominee of a majormajor party have created a strongstrong backlashbacklash from groups Mr. TrumpTmmp has targeted, most notably Hispanics in generalgeneral andand MexicanMexican Ameri-Ameri­ cans specifically.specifically.

9. Mr.Mr. Ramos Ramos was was born bom in in Mexico Mexico City, City, but but lives lives in in Miami, Miami, Florida Florida wherewhere hehe hashas beenbeen anan Univision News anchor for three decades. OftenOften describeddescribed asas thethe "Walter“Walter CronkiteCronkite ofof HispanicHispanic media,"media.” Mr. Ramos became an American citizen in 2008 and is registered to vote in FloridaHonda as an Independent. 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 59

• Aware of thatthat backlash,backlash, a broadbroad coalition of nationalnational andand locallocal groups are working to drive upup LatinoLatino votervoter registrationregistration andand turnoutturnout levels inin 20162016 across across thethe nation nation andand inin HarrisHarris County.County. Given thesethese generalgeneral conditions, we turnturn toto thethe centralcentral questionquestion thisthis report addresses:addresses: WhatWhat willwill bebe the impact of thethe DonaldDonald TrumpTrump candidacycandidacy and likely nominationnomination on HispanicHispanic registrationregistration andand voting inin HarrisHarris County, Texas? Based on populationpopulation data,data, registration levels, andand actualactual votervoter partici-partici­ pation for the last 20 years,years, wewe cancan extrapolateextrapolate whatwhat a a "normal"“normal” presidential election wouldwould havehave likelylikely beenbeen ifif Republican Republican candidatecandidate hadhad someone otherother than Donald J.J. Trump,Trump, likelike JebJeb BushBush oror ScottScott Walker.Walker. InIn thisthis casecase wewe sim-sim­ ply do aa straight-linestraight-line projectionprojection of of thethe trendstrends from from 19961996 toto 20122012 to 2016. This scenario assumes that AngloAnglo voters in the county continue to decline because of continuingcontinuing net outmigration ofof non-Hispanic whites.whites. It also as-as­ sumes that Black turnout isis stablestable comparedcompared toto 20122012 because growth in thethe adult African American communitycommunity in in HarrisHarris County County is is offsetoffset by lowerlower turnout withoutwithout Barack ObamaObama onon the ballot.

Projections with a nomineenominee other thanthan DonaldDonald TrumpTrump Hispanic voter registrationregistration in in November November 2016: 2016: 425,000 (Up from 375,000 in 2012)

Hispanic voter turnoutturnout in in November November 2016: 2016: 204,000 (Up from 180,000 in 2012)

Hispanic share ofof the total presidential vote:vote: 16.94%16.94% (Up fromfrom 14.91%14.91% in 2012)

Our second projection assumes Donald TrumpTrump is the RepublicanRepublican presi-presi­ dential candidate onon the Harris CountyCounty ballotballot inin November 2016. WithWith Mr.Mr. Trump'sTrump’s very low favorabilityfavorability ratingrating among HispanicsHispanics andand thethe energeticenergetic attacks onon the prospective nominee from across the politicalpolitical spectrum,spectrum, in-in­ cluding many Latino Republicans, it is veryvery unlikelyunlikely thatthat Mr.Mr. TrumpTrump will depress normal registration and and votingvoting levelslevels amongamong Latinos.Latinos. OurOur bestbest guess isis thatthat thethe DonaldDonald J.J. TrumpTrump candidacycandidacy will increaseincrease HispanicHispanic votervoter registration in in Harris Harris County County by by about about 40,000 40,000 to to a a total total of of 465,000. 465,000. ThisThis would bebe a gain of 90,000 over 2012 levelslevels ofof whichwhich 50,00050,000 wouldwould havehave likely occurredoccurred duedue to long-termlong-term factors. WeWe expectexpect thethe TrumpTrump factorfactor would not onlyonly addadd additionaladditional HispanicHispanic registrantsregistrants toto the votervoter rolls,rolls, butbut would alsoalso increaseincrease turnoutturnout among personspersons alreadyalready registered so thatthat thethe total Latino votevote wouldwould bebe about 242,000.242,000. ThisThis wouldwould bebe a net gain of 60 STCLH HISPANICHispanic J JOURNALournal of OF Law LAW & P&olicy POLICY [Vol. [Vol. 1:451:45

62,000 fromfrom 2012. AndAnd that,that, wewe estimate,estimate, wouldwould accountaccount for a littlelittle lessless than 20 percent of thethe totaltotal vote, comparedcompared toto 1515 percentpercent fourfour yearsyears earlier.earlier. Gains of thisthis magnitudemagnitude would usher in aa newnew chapterchapter ofof HispanicHispanic civic engagementengagement inin HarrisHarris County, Texas muchmuch asas thethe controversialcontroversial Pro-Pro­ position 187187 vote in CaliforniaCalifornia 2222 years agoago is widely seenseen asas anan inflectioninflection point in the political history of thethe GoldenGolden State.State.