EESTIMATINGstimating theTHE IMPACTImpact OFof THEthe PRESIDENTIALPresidential CAMPAIGNCampaign ofOF DDONALDonald J. TRUMPTrump ONon HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration and AND VVOTINGoting inIN HHARRISarris COUNTYCounty RICHARDRichard MMURRAY*urray* ANDand JERONIMOJeronimo CCORTINA**ortina** I. INTRODUCTION 4545 n.II. REVIEWINGReviewing HHISPANICispanic PPOPULATIONopulation GGROWTHrowth andAND LAGGINGLagging POLITICALPolitical PPARTICIPATIONarticipation in IN HHARRISarris CCOUNTYounty.............................. 5050 III. PATTERNSPatterns ofOF HISPANICHispanic VOTERVoter REGISTRATIONRegistration AACROSScross HARRISHarris COUNTYCounty INin RECENTRecent YEARSYears .................................................. 5353 IV. NON-PARTISANNon-Partisan EEFFORTSfforts inIN 20162016 TO to INCREASE Increase HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration and ANI) VVOTINGoting inIN HHARRISarris COUNTYCounty......................... 5555 V. CONCLUSION:Conclusion: WILLWill THEthe TRUMPTrump CANDIDACYCandidacy MATTERMatter INin HARRISHarris COUNTY?County? ......................................................................................... 5858 I. INTRODUCTIONIntroduction In June 2014, I1 (Richard(Richard Murray) wrote a report forfor thethe officeoffice of HarrisHarris County Attorney Vince RyanRyan entitledentitled "Increasing“Increasing Hispanic Voter Registra-Registra­ tion andand ParticipationParticipation inin Harris County,County, Texas:Texas: ChangingChanging DemographicsDemographics Suggest anan AlternativeAlternative Approach."Approach.” ThatThat report notednoted that Texas oftenoften ranked deaddead last among the fiftyfifty statesstates inin votervoter turnout, turnout, andand thatthat HarrisHarris County had the lowest level ofof votervoter registrationregistration as a percentage of voting age populationpopulation (VAP) of thethe largelarge urbanurban counties inin Texas.Texas. TheThe principalprincipal reason for these poor rankings waswas thethe veryvery lowlow levels ofof registeringregistering andand voting among Hispanic Texans inin thethe statestate as aa wholewhole andand HarrisHarris County in particular.' * Professor of Political Science,Science. BobBob LanierLanier Chair in Urban Public Policy,Policy, University of Houston. Director ofof Surveying, Hobby Center forfor PublicPublic Policy,Policy, University of Houston. Ph.D., Political Science,Science. UniversityUniversity of Minnesota.Minnesota. M.A.M.A. andand B.A.,B.A.. Government, Government. LouisianaLouisiana StateState University. **•* Associate Professor,Professor, Department ofof Political Science andand the Center for Mexican Ameri-Ameri­ can Studies. Ph.D., Political Science,Science. ColumbiaColumbia University. M.Phil., Political Science, ColumbiaColumbia University. M.A., PublicPublic Administration,Administration, Columbia University. 1.1. See RICHARDRicharfj MURRAY,Murray, INCREASINGIncri-asing HHISPANICispanic VVonothr R REGISTRATION Registration ANI)ani> PARTICIPATIONParticipation IN HARRISHarris COUNTY,Counit, TEXAS:Texas: CHANGINGChanging DEMOGRAPHIC Demographic SUGGESTSucrihst anAN AALTERNATIVEi ternative AAPPROACHpproach 2-5 2-5 (2014).(2014). 45 46 STCLH HISPANIC Hispanic JOURNALJournal OFof LLAWaw && POLICYPolicy [Vol.[Vol. 1:451:45 After reviewing census data andand countycounty registrationregistration and votingvoting pat-pat­ terns, I suggestedsuggested that a nonpartisan effort to increase Latino civic engage-engage­ ment by workingworking withwith partnerspartners likelike thethe locallocal RomanRoman CatholicCatholic archdiocesearchdiocese was more likely to bebe successfulsuccessful inin HarrisHarris CountyCounty thanthan partisanpartisan effortsefforts like Battleground Texas which are closely alignedaligned with the DemocraticDemocratic Party or its candidates. There were two reasonsreasons why thisthis mademade sensesense inin mymy opinion.opinion. First, only about one-halfone-half of citizencitizen votingvoting ageage HispanicsHispanics identifyidentify withwith the Democratic Party, with the remainderremainder aboutabout evenlyevenly splitsplit betweenbetween Republi-Republi­ cans and politicalpolitical Independents.Independents. That being the case, itit seemedseemed logicallogical to separate any Latino civiccivic engagementengagement effort fromfrom anan overtlyovertly partisanpartisan (i.e.,(i.e., Democratic) voter drive. Second,Second, censuscensus datadata clearlyclearly showedshowed thatthat thethe great-great­ est growthgrowth in HispanicHispanic citizens of voting age was not inin thethe oldold barriobarrio neighborhoods like Denver Harbor, Magnolia, and SouthSouth Houston that areare strongly Democratic inin partisan elections,elections, butbut inin thethe demographicallydemographically mixedmixed outer suburbansuburban communitiescommunities inin schoolschool districtsdistricts likelike Cypress-Fairbanks, Cypress-Fairbanks, Spring, Katy, and Goose Creek—areasCreek—areas that tendtend toto votevote RepublicanRepublican in par-par­ tisan elections. At the time I wrotewrote thethe 20142014 report,report, itit appearedappeared thatthat bothboth majormajor partiesparties were likely to vigorouslyvigorously competecompete for thethe votesvotes ofof HispanicHispanic AmericansAmericans inin the 20162016 presidentialpresidential election.election. TheThe RepublicanRepublican PartyParty NationalNational CommitteeCommittee had, for example, released an "autopsy“autopsy report"report” afterafter thethe disappointingdisappointing 20122012 defeat of theirtheir nomineenominee MittMitt Romney,Romney, notingnoting that:that: If HispanicHispanic AmericansAmericans perceive that aa GOPGOP nomineenominee oror candidatecandidate does not wantwant themthem inin thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates (i.e.,(i.e., self-deportation),self-deportation), theythey will not pay attention to our next sentence. ItIt doesdoes notnot mattermatter whatwhat we say about education, jobs, or thethe economy;economy; ifif HispanicsHispanics thinkthink we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. We are not a policy committee, but amongamong the stepssteps RepublicansRepublicans take in the Hispanic community and beyond,beyond, wewe mustmust embrace and cham-cham­ pion comprehensive immigration reform.reform.^2 In 2014,2014, thatthat recommendationrecommendation seemed likely to bebe adopted.adopted. AA bipartisanbipartisan comprehensive immigrationimmigration reformreform billbill hadhad passedpassed thethe U.S. Senate by a large margin, and head counts amongamong U.S.U.S. HouseHouse membersmembers showedshowed it en-en­ joyed majoritymajority supportsupport inin thatthat body.body. ProspectiveProspective RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential candidates like U.S. Senator Marco Rubio andand formerformer FloridaFlorida governor Jeb Bush were actively behind the effort,effort, asas werewere manymany GOPGOP governorsgovernors andand other party leaders. Passage of thisthis legislationlegislation wouldwould havehave laidlaid thethe ground-ground­ work for a vigorousvigorous competitioncompetition forfor HispanicHispanic votersvoters acrossacross thethe countrycountry inin 2016, a competition that, in our opinion, wouldwould havehave beenbeen decidedly healthy for ourour politicalpolitical systemsystem inin general,general, andand thethe growing growing LatinoLatino populationpopulation specifically. 2. RepublicanRepublican National National Committee,Committee. Growth and OpportunityOpportunity Project,Project. 2013,2013. at 8. 2016] IIMPACTmpact onON HISPANICHispanic REGISTRATIONRegistration andAND VOTINGVoting 47 However, we nownow knowknow that that comprehensive comprehensive immigration immigration reformreform failed. U.S. HouseHouse ofof Representatives Representatives SpeakerSpeaker JohnJohn Boehner was unableunable to overcome the fiercefierce oppositionopposition ofof TeaTea PartyParty membersmembers ofof thethe RepublicanRepublican Conference and ended up letting the legislationlegislation diedie ratherrather than bring it to the floor and pass itit withwith aa majoritymajority of DemocraticDemocratic votes. TheThe unexpectedunexpected failure of the immigrationimmigration reform billbill suggested the recommendations of thethe Growth and Opportunity ProjectProject on on immigrationimmigration reformreform were were goinggoing to face very strong headwinds in the 20162016 RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential primary.primary. Nota-Nota­ bly, thethe juniorjunior senatorsenator from Texas, Ted Cruz, although himself an immi-immi­ grant with a Cuban American father, was an early declared candidate for the White House who mademade opposition toto immigrationimmigration reform a key element of his strategystrategy for winningwinning thethe GOPGOP nomination.nomination. Strong headwinds became a category five hurricanehurricane in the summer of 2015. OnOn JuneJune 16th,16th, businessmanbusinessman Donald J. Trump and his wife MelaniaMelania rode the escalator down to thethe mainmain floorfloor ofof Trump Trump TowerTower inin Manhattan. Manhattan. Mr. Trump stepped upup to a microphonemicrophone and announced his candidacy for the 2016 RepublicanRepublican presidentialpresidential nomination. That waswas not especially sur-sur­ prising. Mr. Trump had talked about runningrunning forfor presidentpresident inin previous cy­cy- cles. TheThe surprise surprise waswas thethe content content ofof his his announcement announcement speech—aspeech—a brutalbrutal assault on illegalillegal immigrationimmigration inin generalgeneral