South East Europe's Consolidation in Light of the EU Crisis, Refugee Influx and Religious Extremism
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Study Group Information Predrag Jureković (Ed.) South East Europe’s Consolidation in Light of the EU Crisis, Refugee Influx and Religious Extremism 32nd Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” 4/2017 Vienna, February 2017 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Command Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria In co-operation with: PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Study Group Information Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports All rights reserved February 2017 ISBN 978-3-903121-14-0 Printing: HDruckZ-ASt Stift 17-0419 Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Table of Contents Foreword 5 Predrag Jureković Abstract 9 PART I: EXPERIENCES FROM DEALING WITH THE MIGRATION CRISIS 11 A Perception from the “Balkan Route” 13 Aja Fukuda Experiences from Dealing with Migration Crisis in the Republic of Serbia 25 Saša Gosić A Testimonial from a Humanitarian NGO Activist Regarding the Refugee Crisis in Macedonia 51 Jasmin Redžepi PART II: RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM AND COUNTER-STRATEGIES: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DIMENSION 63 Functional Model of Integration of Muslims – Croatian Example 65 Nermin Botonjić A Plea for a Tolerant Discourse 71 Drago Pilsel PART III: EU AS A POLITICAL ROLE MODEL: STILL UNDISPUTED? 75 The Multiple EU Crises and the Unfinished Business in the Western Balkans: About Immortal Myths and Harsh Realities in the Enlargement World 77 Michael Schmunk 3 Refugees/Migrants Imbroglio and EU Enlargement: What Consequences for Macedonia? 87 Dane Taleski The EU as a Role Model Still Undisputed? – Serbia’s Case 97 Aleksandra Joksimović Ambiguity is Never Constructive – How the EU is Failing to Stabilise the Balkans through the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue 115 Besa Shahini EU as a Political Role Model – Still Undisputed? Brussels we have a Problem…Softening a Wrong Power 133 Amer Kapetanović Montenegro in the EU – A Prospect with No Alternatives 151 Blagoje Gledović Normative Incongruence between EU Norms and the Albanian Political Elite: Explaining the Limited Effectiveness of EU Democratic Conditionality 167 Sokol Lleshi PART V: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 197 Policy Recommendations from the Study Group Regional Stability in South East Europe 199 Predrag Jureković List of Authors 207 4 Foreword Predrag Jureković The 32nd workshop of the Study Group “Regional Stability in South East Europe” was convened in Reichenau, Austria, from 19 to 22 May 2016. Under the overarching title of “South East Europe’s Consolidation in Light of the EU Crisis, Refugee Influx and Religious Extremism” almost 40 ex- perts from the South East European region, the international community and major stakeholder nations met under the umbrella of the Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Insti- tutes and the Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sports, represented through its National Defence Academy and Directorate General for Securi- ty Policy. Global security developments as well as crises phenomena, which are con- nected to the European Union (EU), have had or could have an increased influence on processes of regional consolidation in South East Europe. As a consequence of the ongoing violent conflicts in the Middle East, hun- dreds of thousands of refugees have fled to Europe, using among others the “Balkan route”, which until March 2016 was an important “transit zone” for migrants on their way to a noticeably overwhelmed EU. Apart from the challenges that are linked to the refugee/migrant crisis, there are rising concerns within EU member states – in particular after the attacks in Paris, Brussels and Berlin in 2015/16 – of becoming the target of further terrorist attacks by radical Islamists. This circumstance has also turned the spotlight on radicalized individuals and groups from the Western Balkan countries that have shown sympathy for the terrorist organization “Islamic State”, have built up links with it, or even joined their combat forces as foreign fighters. 5 Enhanced by the international refugee/migrant crisis, various crises symptoms have emerged within the EU, such as the lack of solidarity and cohesion, disintegrative developments – such as, the British referendum – as well as the rise of semi-authoritarian political models. A further deterio- ration of EU standards and co-operative behaviour would harm not only the EU as a political union but could challenge its unique global position as a democratic and co-operative role model, as well as its integrative function for South East Europe. The aforementioned international and EU crises phenomena come up against a semi-consolidated South East European region that still suffers from the legacies of former wars and huge economic problems, despite the progress that has already been achieved. How these external challenges interact with intra-regional consolidation necessities was discussed during the Reichenau workshop. The following key questions constituted the framework of discussion and debate during the workshop and, thus, also form the structure of the con- tributions from the three panels in the following pages: • To which extent do the various crises and insecurities in Europe and abroad (refugee flows, terrorism and religious radicalization, lack of EU cohesion, authoritarian political models, separatist movements etc.) influence the various processes of consolidation in South East Europe? • How has the refugee/migrant crisis been managed along the so called “Balkan route”, thus far, and what are the lessons learnt for the crisis management capabilities of the individual countries, as well as the regional cooperation in this field? • To what extent are countries in South East Europe endangered by terrorist attacks undertaken by Islamists? • What is the “contribution” of local extremists to the so-called “Is- lamic State” and other international terrorist organizations? Is re- gional co-operation of security agencies doing well in orchestrating counter strategies? • On the other hand, how can the positive co-existence of different ethnic and religious communities in South East Europe be used to 6 delegitimize religious extremism? • The spreading of the international refugee/migrant crisis to Europe has shown a worrying lack of cohesion and solidarity among EU countries in difficult times. Could this weakness, if not addressed appropriately, undermine the EU’s consolidation and integration policies towards South East Europe in the medium term? • Will the ongoing turbulences within the EU demand a more active role of the US to tackle unsolved issues in South East Europe? • To which extent does the electoral success of semi-authoritarian pol- iticians in some EU countries and abroad influences the process of democratization in South East European transition countries? • Could separatist movements within South East Europe be boosted by disintegrative developments in the EU (British referendum, Cat- alonia) and beyond? In part I of this book; Aja Fukuda (Group 484, Belgrade), Saša Gosić (Ser- bian Ministry of the Interior) and Jasmin Redžepi (NGO Legis, Skopje) address, from different perspectives, the experiences of Western Balkan countries in dealing with the migration crisis in 2015/16. Nermin Botonjić (Islamic Community in Croatia, Zagreb) and Drago Pilsel (Autograf.hr / Initiative “Dobrodošli”-Welcome) focus on the issues of religious dialogue and extremism in their contributions in part II. The role that the EU still can – and has to – play in regard to her support for normalizing the fragile regional relations in the Western Balkans is analysed comprehensively in part III of this Study Group Information. Ambassador Michael Schmunck (GIGA Hamburg), in his in-depth contribution, deals with the connections between the multiple EU crises and the unfinished business in the Western Balkans. This is followed by regional case studies, which are authored by Dane Taleski (South East European University, Skopje) on Macedonia, Aleksandra Joksimović (Center for Foreign Policy, Belgrade) on Serbia, Besa Shahini (independent analyst, Prishtina / Priština), Amer Kapetanović (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sarajevo) on Bosnia and Herzegovina, Blagoje Gledović (Ministry of Justice, Podgorica) on Montenegro and Sokol Lleshi (Albanian Institute for International Studies, Tirana) on Albania. The policy recommendations and findings of the expert group are summarized by Predrag Jureković (National Defence Academy, Vienna) at the end of this publication in part IV. 7 The editor would like to express his thanks to all authors who contributed papers to this volume of the Study Group Information. He is pleased to present the valued readers with the analyses and recommendations of the Reichenau meeting and hope this Study Group Information can contribute in generating positive ideas for supporting the current challenging process- es of consolidating peace in South East Europe. Special thanks go to Ms. Adriana Dubo, who supported this publication as facilitating editor, to Mr. Ali El-Haj for his support in the proofreading process, and to Mr. Benedikt Hensellek for his stout support to the Study Group. 8 Abstract The publication of the 32nd workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in Sout East Euroe” entitled “South East Europe’s Consolidation in Light of the EU Crisis, Refugee Influx and Religious Ex- tremism“, aims at presenting