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The Role of Trade Partners' Cohesiveness in the Conclusion of Interregional Agreements with The

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The Role of Trade Partners' Cohesiveness in the Conclusion of Interregional Agreements with The ADVERTIMENT. Lʼaccés als continguts dʼaquesta tesi queda condicionat a lʼacceptació de les condicions dʼús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons: http://cat.creativecommons.org/?page_id=184 ADVERTENCIA. El acceso a los contenidos de esta tesis queda condicionado a la aceptación de las condiciones de uso establecidas por la siguiente licencia Creative Commons: http://es.creativecommons.org/blog/licencias/ WARNING. The access to the contents of this doctoral thesis it is limited to the acceptance of the use conditions set by the following Creative Commons license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/?lang=en PHD THESIS The role of trade partners' cohesiveness in the conclusion of interregional agreements with the European Union Jordi Mas Elias Supervised by Esther Barbé Izuel and Patricia Garcia-Duran Huet September 2018 PROGRAM IN POLITICS, POLICIES AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC LAW AND LEGAL HISTORY STUDIES FACULTY OF LAW | FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND SOCIOLOGY “Parsimony is bought at expense of nuance” Gøsta Esping-Andersen Acknowledgments In such a solitary work as writing a thesis is, I could never have imagined that there would be so many people in the acknowledgments list. Or at least, I want them to appear here. One of the most important things you realize during the long path you run in a PhD is how important it becomes the help of colleagues and friends in every single piece of work you write. All we produce in life, no matter how solitary it might seem, is teamwork. Some help to improve your work in a more direct way, with helpful recommendations and comments; others do it more indirectly with doses of technical, emotional, and inspirational support. In the following lines, I would like to mention all these sources of fruitful input. This thesis is in large part made to, for, and by them. I would wish to not forget anyone, but taking into consideration my short memory, I am afraid I will. My apologies to them in advance. First and foremost, I want to thank the patience of my two supervisors, Esther Barbé and Patricia Garcia-Duran. Without them I would not have started nor finished this thesis. I appreciate so much the opportunity and the help they have given to me during these intense years, in which I have endured and progressively enjoyed this sometimes tortuous and sometimes fabulous experience of doing a PhD. If in every endeavor in life you enjoy from comfort and learn from discomfort, at the end everything pays off. To all IBEI family: here I have a long list. The contributions of Yannis Karagiannis, Martijn Vlaskamp, Robert Kissack, Adam Holesch, Andrea Bianculli, Marta Íñiguez de Heredia, Emmanuele Mathieu, Frank Borge I Wietzke, Francisco Granados, Matthias vom Hau, Fulya Apaydin, Shashwat Kumar, Laura Chaqués, Héloïse Berkowitz and Thomas Rixen. Also, I want to thank everyone who makes daily life easier at IBEI, specially Jacint Jordana, Mariona Fernández, Carlos Sánchez, Berta Baquer, Glòria Alegret, Helena Arregui, Blanca Barón, Agnès Jané, Carles López and Vicente Ruiz. And all my best wishes to Pablo Astorga. Part of this path was run in Belgium with the sensational group of the Centre for EU Studies. I appreciate not only their support and insights, but also the wonderful atmosphere lived there thanks to Jan Orbie, Ferdi De Ville, Olga Burlyuk, Sarah Delputte, Joren Verschaeve, Yelter Bollen, Frederik De Roeck, Marjolein Derous, Niels Gheyle, Deborah Martens, Lies Steurs and Lore Van den Putte. Many other people have contributed in various ways. The discussants in the panels where this thesis was presented Mark Langan and Joanna Starzyk- Sulejewska. The members of the yearly assessment tribunal Laura Feliu, Joan Botella, Rafael Grasa, Margarita León, Gabriel Colomé, Oriol Costa, Guillem Rico and Lara Maestripieri. And other sources of uncountable help: Ana Garcia, Sebastian Hellmeier, Johnny Lawrence, José Antonio Sanahuja, Anna Herranz-Surrallés, Diego Muro, Montserrat Millet, Bruce Springsteen, Owen Barder, Haruki Murakami, Juan Pablo Soriano, Jack Daniels, Ixchel Pérez Duran, Ferran Grau, Sylvester Stallone, Javier Fernandez Pons and Jordi Zamora. Of course, I am also grateful to the funding received from public institutions. Honestly, this research would have never been finished without the financial support that allowed me to concentrate on my work, participate on international conferences and fund my research stay. To my lovely family and to my nice friends. And to my life partner. Now we have a long path to run together. II Abstract The European Union (EU) has become in recent years one of the most active global players in liberalizing barriers to trade. Since the creation of the World Trade Organization and besides its participation in multilateral negotiations, the Union has launched several negotiations with different countries and regions with the aim of establishing preferential trade relationships with them. In the case of region-to-region negotiations, some of them have successfully concluded with agreement whereas others have not. Interactions among world regions have constituted the natural object of study of interregionalist literature. Dominated primarily by qualitative research, the field has so far enhanced its theoretical development mostly with single in-depth case-based studies of regional interactions. One of the exceptions due to its encompassing approach to analyze the EU region-to- region trade outcomes is the theoretical framework developed by Aggarwal and Fogarty. In their edited volume, the authors identify the factors to take into account to determine the existence of cohesiveness in the EU’s regional counterpart and apply them qualitatively to several cases. This thesis brings quantitative analysis to the study of interregionalism and, taking Aggarwal and Fogarty’s framework as the departure point, suggests a method to measure and analyze the impact of the EU’s partner cohesiveness on interregional trade negotiations outcomes. Cohesiveness is understood as a mechanism formed by different factors that helps the regional partner to diminish the number of veto players and allows the III grouping to work together effectively as a unit. The research operationalizes quantitatively the factors and dimensions that compound the cohesiveness of the counterpart identified by Aggarwal and Fogarty and measures the average effect of the independent variable on the conclusion of interregional negotiations with the EU. The study hypothesizes, therefore, that cohesiveness has a positive effect on the likelihood that negotiations conclude with agreement with the EU. This thesis supports Aggarwal and Fogarty’s claim that cohesiveness of the EU’s regional counterpart is an independent variable of EU trade conclusion. Therefore, it cannot be discarded as a factor that determines the probability of agreement. Results show that the most important factors helping cohesiveness to explain the likelihood of concluding an agreement with the EU are the power considerations within the counterpart region and the degree of authority pooled by the member states to regional institutions. As regards to power considerations, negotiations are more likely to conclude where the EU negotiates with a counterpart formed by large hegemons and small open economies. In the case of institutional authority, probabilities of conclusion are higher in regions whose members have engaged in a deep transfer of competences to the regional level. The research makes three further contributions. First, the analysis through quantitative tools suggests some modifications to the dimensions proposed by Aggarwal and Fogarty. By assessing the correlations of the dimensions identified by the authors, the research tests their empirical meaning and proposes accordingly new groups of factors that conform cohesiveness. Second, the quantitative operationalization of the variables brings new empirical data to the study or interregionalism. And third, the findings suggest some insights for the EU trade policymaker, such as taking into consideration the distribution of power in the counterpart when selecting and negotiating with regional partners. IV Resum La Unió Europea ha esdevingut en els darrers anys un dels actors globals més actius a l’hora de liberalitzar barreres comercials. Des de la creació de l’Organització Mundial del Comerç i com a complement a la seva participació en negociacions multilaterals, la Unió ha mantingut negociacions amb diversos països i regions amb l’objectiu d’establir-hi relacions comercials preferents. En el cas de les negociacions interregionals, algunes d’elles han conclòs amb acord mentre que d’altres han finalitzat sense. Les interaccions entre regions han constituït l’objecte natural d’estudi de la literatura en interregionalisme. Dominada principalment per tècniques de recerca qualitativa, aquest camp de recerca ha expandit principalment el seu desenvolupament teòric mitjançant estudis de cas en profunditat de les interaccions entre regions. En aquest sentit, una de les excepcions en la literatura ha estat el marc teòric desenvolupat per Aggarwal i Fogarty, pensat per analitzar d’una forma àmplia a través de diversos casos el resultat de les negociacions interregionals de comerç de la Unió Europea. En el seu volum editat, els autors identifiquen els factors a tenir en consideració per determinar l’existència de cohesió regional en el soci de la Unió i els apliquen de forma qualitativa a diversos casos d’estudi. Aquesta tesi contribueix amb eines d’anàlisi quantitativa
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