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Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) 25 June 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Restaurants Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (21-Jun-19, US$) 280.33 INITIATION Target price (US$) 320.00 52-week price range (US$) 300.67 - 234.35 Market cap(US$ m) 11,523 Time to Get A Piece of This Pie; Initiate Enterprise value (US$ m) 14,963 Target price is for 12 months. Outperform Research Analysts ■ We initiate coverage of Domino’s (DPZ) with an Outperform rating and Lauren Silberman 212 325 2720 $320 target price. DPZ is one of the best growth stories in restaurants, with [email protected] ~10% revenue growth, margin expansion and benefits from repurchases driving an EPS CAGR of ~15% over the next four years. We believe concerns regarding the impact of third-party delivery could be overdone as the honeymoon phase wears off and carryout could offset pressure, with outperformance against SSS estimates as upside. Confidence in ~7% global unit growth is driven by global brand strength, domestic whitespace opportunities in a fragmented category and international master franchise agreements. ■ US SSS Outperformance: DPZ should maintain SSS momentum and share gains as one of the few companies with contribution from positive traffic, the only company with a frequency-based loyalty program, consistent value messaging, favorable franchisee relations (avg franchisee ~$975K EBITDA) and an industry-leading digital ecosystem supporting best-in-class execution. We estimate US SSS of 5.5% in 2019, with expectations for sequential improvement throughout the year against easing compares and reduced competitive headwinds from 1Q (Points for Pies, QSR chains delivery campaigns). Longer term, we model US SSS of ~5%. ■ Third-Party Delivery as NT Pressure, But Not LT Issue: An increasing number of cross-branded campaigns with national QSR chains, competition for delivery drivers and aggressive promos represent incremental competitive pressure NT. LT, pizza’s stable 10-yr ~$10BN delivery market share should largely hold, with pizza a cuisine that travels well and offers great value. Positioning as a delivery company could be a net positive for DPZ as delivery demand increases, while increased focus on carryout can drive incremental sales and help offset competitive pressures (~2/3 delivery, 1/3 carryout split). ■ Valuation: Our $320 target price is based on ~20.5x our NTM EBITDA in 12 months, implying ~28x our NTM EPS in 12 months (30x avg), in-line with current multiples. Key risks: competition, consumer spending, interest rates. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 8.42 9.44 11.10 12.66 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - P/E rel. (%) 186.3 172.0 162.6 156.3 Revenue (US$ m) 3,432.9 3,686.0 4,042.2 4,386.1 EBITDA (US$ m) 625.9 694.5 783.2 847.1 OCFPS (US$) 9.10 10.54 12.69 14.52 P/OCF (x) 27.5 26.6 22.1 19.3 EV/EBITDA (current) 24.0 21.6 19.2 17.7 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Net debt (US$ m) 3,506 3,440 3,540 3,588 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$292.39 ROIC (%) 103.56 113.41 115.03 117.77 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of shares (m) 41.10 IC (current, US$ m) 466.22 2018A 2.00 1.84 1.95 2.62 BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) -72.8 Dividend (current, US$) 2.60 2019E 2.20 2.08 2.11 3.07 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) 3,400.6 2020E 2.44 2.43 2.46 3.79 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) -114.3 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 25 June 2019 Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) Price (21 Jun 2019): US$280.33; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: 320.00; Analyst: Lauren Silberman Income Statement 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 3,432.9 3,686.0 4,042.2 4,386.1 Domino's Pizza is the one of the world's largest pizza companies, EBITDA (US$ m) 626 695 783 847 with nearly 15,000 locations in more than 85 markets. Depr. & amort. (54) (59) (65) (70) EBIT (US$) 572 635 718 777 Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Net interest exp (140) (149) (156) (157) PBT (US$) 433 487 562 619 Income taxes (68) (92) (112) (124) Profit after tax 365 395 450 496 Net profit (US$) 365 395 450 496 Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash flow from operations 394 440 514 568 CAPEX (120) (112) (100) (90) Free cashflow to the firm 274 328 414 478 Cash flow from investments (88) (71) (100) (90) Net share issue(/repurchase) (581) (223) (392) (391) Dividends paid (92) (105) (122) (136) Changes in Net Cash/Debt (388) 66 (100) (49) Balance Sheet (US$) 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash & cash equivalents 25 17 82 98 Account receivables 190 193 212 230 Other current assets 305 268 268 268 Total fixed assets 233 241 276 296 Investment securities - - - - Total assets 1,124 1,095 1,214 1,268 Total current liabilities 412 396 404 414 Shareholder equity (3,040) (2,986) (3,040) (3,061) Total liabilities and equity 1,124 1,095 1,214 1,268 Net debt 3,506 3,440 3,540 3,588 Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 385.00 Our $385 one-year valuation in a blue sky scenario is based on an Per share 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EV/EBITDA of ~22.5x our blue sky FY20 EBITDA. Our blue sky No. of shares (wtd avg) 43 42 41 39 FY20 EBITDA is based on: 1) domestic SSS of 8%; 2) domestic unit CS adj. EPS 8.42 9.44 11.10 12.66 growth of ~6%; and 3) operating margins of ~19%. Prev. EPS (US$) Dividend (US$) 2.20 2.60 3.12 3.59 Free cash flow per share 6.33 7.85 10.22 12.22 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 235.00 Earnings 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Our $235 one-year valuation in a grey sky scenario is based on an Sales growth (%) 23.1 7.4 9.7 8.5 EV/EBITDA of ~18x our grey sky FY20 EBITDA. Our grey sky FY20 EBIT growth (%) 9.7 11.0 13.1 8.1 EBITDA is based on: 1) domestic SSS of 3.5%; 2) domestic unit Net profit growth (%) 29.5 8.1 14.0 10.2 growth of ~4.5%; and 3) operating margins of ~16.5%. EPS growth (%) 42.4 12.1 17.6 14.1 EBITDA margin (%) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.3 Share price performance EBIT margin (%) 16.7 17.2 17.8 17.7 Pretax margin (%) 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.1 Net margin (%) 10.6 10.7 11.1 11.3 Valuation 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EV/EBITDA (x) 24.0 21.6 19.2 17.7 P/E (x) 33.3 29.7 25.3 22.1 Returns 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E ROIC (%) 103.6 113.4 115.0 117.8 Gearing 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Net debt/equity (%) (115.3) (115.2) (116.4) (117.2) Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 2.00 1.84 1.95 2.62 2019E 2.20 2.08 2.11 3.07 2020E 2.44 2.43 2.46 3.79 On 21-Jun-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2950.46 Daily Jun22, 2018 - Jun21, 2019, 06/22/18 = US$292.39 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) 2 25 June 2019 Executive Summary We initiate coverage of Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) with an Outperform rating and $320 target price. DPZ is one of the best growth stories in restaurants, with ~10% revenue growth, margin expansion and benefits from repurchases supporting EPS growth of ~15% over the next four years. Please refer to our views summarizing the Restaurants industry: US Restaurants Phone To Table: Digitizing Restaurants. ■ DPZ Well Positioned for Global SSS Outperformance: DPZ has exhibited industry- leading and consistent global SSS, with domestic SSS averaging ~9% and international SSS averaging ~5.5% over the last five years. DPZ has consistently met or exceeded its long-term SSS targets, currently 3-6% globally. While increasing competitive pressure from third-party delivery companies has pressured SSS more recently, we believe DPZ’s long-term strategy around value, digital and delivery well positions the company for market share gains. For 2019, we estimate domestic SSS of 5.5%, with expectations for sequential improvement throughout the year as compares ease. We model domestic SSS of 5% post 2019, toward the higher end of DPZ’s long-term SSS target of 3-6%. Our confidence in ongoing SSS outperformance and market share gains comes from: 1) historical precedent, with 32 consecutive quarters of positive US SSS averaging ~7.5% since 2010 comprised of healthy traffic gains and average check increases; 2) fragmented pizza market, with opportunities to gain share from independents, regional chains and large chains; and 3) execution against sales initiatives, including ongoing evolution of its digital platform, compelling and consistent value offers and benefits from a greater focus on carryout.
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