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Annual Report ANNUAL REPORT CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU Annual Report 2018 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERÚ BOARD OF DIRECTORS As of December 31, 2018 Julio Velarde Flores Governor Luis Miguel Palomino Bonilla Vice Chairman José Chlimper Ackerman Elmer Cuba Bustinza Javier Escobal D’Angelo Rafael Rey Rey Gustavo Yamada Fukusaki Members of the Board CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERÚ Senior Officers as of December 31, 2018 Renzo Rossini Miñán General Manager Adrián Armas Rivas Marylin Choy Chong Economic Studies Operations and Technical Affairs Paul Castillo Bardalez Monetary Policy Carlos Ballón Avalos Financial Stability and Monetary Manager Operations Manager Teresa Lamas Pérez Information and Economic Jorge Patrón Worm International Operations Analysis Manager Manager Jorge Estrella Viladegut Economic Javier Gutiérrez González Currency Management Policy Manager Manager Javier Olivera Vega Administration Arturo Pastor Porras Procurement and Services Manager Felipe Roel Montellanos Information Technology Manager María Teresa San Bartolomé Gelicich Human Resources Manager José Rocca Espinoza Manuel Monteagudo Valdez Marco Granadino Cáceres Guillermo De La Flor Viale Communications Manager Legal Department Manager Risk Department Manager Accounting and Supervision Manager Oscar Solís de la Rosa Shoschana Zusman Tinman Audit Department Manager Consultant Attorney Dehera Bruce Mitrani General Secretary CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU 6 ANNUAL REPORT 2018 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Pancho Fierro (1809-1879) Los Rurales. S. XIX Watercolor, 0.24 x 0.31 m. 7 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU Pancho Fierro (1809-1879) Militar de perfil. S. XIX Watercolor, 0.31 x 0.24 m. 8 ANNUAL REPORT 2018 INTRODUCTION In 2018, Peru’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.0 percent after the economy recovered from the adverse shocks caused in 2017 by El Niño Costero event and the Lava Jato corruption case. The recovery was mainly driven by domestic demand, which registered a growth rate of 4.3 percent, a higher rate than those observed between 2014 and 2017. It is worth pointing out that private consumption grew 3.8 percent and private investment grew 4.4 percent (versus 2.6 and 0.2 percent in 2017, respectively) and that all the sectors grew more in 2018 than in 2017, with the exception of mining. During 2018 the international environment was characterized by lower global growth, a drop in the terms of trade, global trade tensions, and higher international interest rates. The pace of growth of global activity fell from 3.8 percent in 2017 to 3.6 percent in 2018, a slowdown being observed in the Eurozone, Japan, China, and other emerging economies in Latin America, all of which were affected by fears about the impact of growing commercial tensions between the United States and its partners, particularly China, as well as by uncertainty regarding the form of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. In addition, tighter external financing conditions associated with the rise in the Federal Reserve interest rate were also observed. The current account deficit of the balance of payments rose from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2017 – extraordinary income being recorded in the year– to 1.6 percent in 2018, in a context of recovery of domestic demand and lower mining production. The trade balance surplus (3.2 percent of GDP) increased slightly compared to 2017 (3.1 percent of GDP) despite the slowdown of global growth and trade tensions. The total external debt was equivalent to 34.5 percent of GDP and external financing continued to be the main source of foreign direct investment (47.2 percent of GDP). The fiscal deficit decreased from 3.0 to 2.3 percent of GDP between 2017 and 2018 as a result of a considerable increase in the revenues of the general government, with public investment reversing its downward trend because of higher disbursements associated with road infrastructure works and infrastructure projects for the 2019 Pan American Games that will take place in Lima. Moreover, representing 25.8 percent of the country’s GDP at the end of 2018, Peru’s public debt continued to be one of the lowest debt levels in the region. 9 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU After reducing its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points in January and in March to 2.75 percent, BCRP maintained it at this level throughout the rest of the year, reflecting an expansionary stance in a context of inflation expectations anchored and a pace of economic activity still below its potential. In this scenario, inflation remained within the target range (between 1 and 3 percent) throughout the year and showed a rate of 2.2 percent in 2018. Inflation excluding food and energy remained relatively stable at 2.2 percent. Moreover, inflation expectations remained anchored within the target range, with an expected rate of 2.5 percent in December 2018. Credit to the private sector accompanied the recovery of economic activity and accelerated from a rate of 6.7 percent in December 2017 to 8.7 percent in December 2018 due to a better performance in corporate and personal loans, in line with the recovery of domestic demand and with the expansionary monetary stance. 10 ANNUAL REPORT 2018 PRODUCTION AND EMPLOYMENT I Peru’s GDP grew 4.0 percent in 2018 after having grown at a rate of 2.5 percent in 2017 due to the negative impact caused by El Niño Costero effects in the northern areas of the country and by the confidence crisis and the disruption of projects generated by the Lava Jato case. With the growth rate achieved in 2018, the Peruvian economy accumulates 20 years of continuous expansion with an average growth rate of 4.7 percent. Economic activity was mostly boosted by the recovery of domestic demand, which showed a growth rate of 4.3 percent after having grown 1.4 percent in the previous year. The evolution of private consumption stands out, reflecting the recovery of employment and the faster pace of growth of credit. On the other hand, private investment was driven by the implementation of mining projects, particularly copper and iron mining projects, while public investment resumed its growth trend due to the implementation of road and sanitation infrastructure works, as well as due to the implementation of works for the Pan American Games and for the reconstruction of the north of the country. As a result of this, the GDP per capita increased 2.9 percent in 2018, a slightly lower rate than the average rate observed over the last eight years (3.2 percent). Graph 1 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA (Index 1960=100) 250 Annual average % change 1923-1930 2.7 1931-1940 1.9 200 1941-1950 2.6 1951-1960 2.8 1961-1970 2.3 150 1971-1980 0.9 1981-1990 -3.2 1991-2000 2.1 2001-2010 4.3 100 2011-2018 3.2 50 0 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: INEI and BCRP. 11 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU In 2018, the GDP per capita in dollars was US$ 7,006, which represented an increase of 4.0 percent. Moreover, in terms of its purchasing power parity (PPP) –indicator based on the same basket of goods that is used to make international comparisons–, the GDP increased by 5.2 percent to 14,224 PPP dollars. Graph 2 GDP PER CAPITA: IN US$ AND INTERNATIONAL PPP US$ 14,224 13,084 13,518 12,179 12,574 11,803 11,083 10,380 9,660 8,905 6,736 7,006 6,409 6,632 6,567 5,744 6,142 ,6,182 5,059 4,188 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GDP per capita in international US$ (PPP) GDP per capita in US$ Source: IMF and BCRP. In the group of countries with high GDP per capita increases, including China, the United States, the European Union, and the five largest countries in the Latin American region, Peru ranks second showing the highest average increase in GDP per capita in PPP values since​​ 2001 (5.8 percent) after China (10.6 percent). Graph 3 GDP PER CAPITA IN PPP VALUES (Average annual percentage change 2001-2018) 10.6 5.8 4.7 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.1 Mexico United Brazil European Latin Colombia Chile Peru China States Union America Source: IMF. 1. Domestic Demand The negative impact of El Niño Costero and the paralyzation of infrastructure works associated with the Lava Jato case affected domestic demand in 2017, its growth rate decreasing to 1.4 percent in 12 ANNUAL REPORT 2018 that year. In 2018, on the other hand, with normal weather conditions and with the recovery of confidence in the private sector, domestic demand grew 4.3 percent, driven by the recovery observed in private expenditure since the end of 2017 and by an increase in public expenditure during most part of 2018. Table 1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE (Real % change) 2016 2017 2018 Average 2009-2018 Domestic Demand 1.1 1.4 4.3 4.4 a. Private consumption 3.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 b. Public consumption 0.3 0.5 2.0 5.6 c. Gross fixed investment -4.3 -0.2 4.9 4.2 - Private -5.4 0.2 4.4 3.9 - Public 0.3 -1.8 6.8 5.6 Change in inventories (% nominal GDP) -0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 Exports 9.1 7.6 2.5 3.5 Minus: Imports -2.3 4.0 3.4 3.7 GDP 4.0 2.5 4.0 4.4 Memo: Total public expenditure 0.3 -0.1 3.4 5.6 Source: INEI and BCRP.
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