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COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens Public Disclosure Authorized COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens Migration and Development Brief 32 April 2020 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized i Migration and Development Brief reports an update on migration and remit- tance flows as well as salient policy developments in the area of international migration and development. The Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNO- MAD) is a global hub of knowledge and policy expertise on migration and development. It aims to create and synthesize multidisciplinary knowledge and evidence; generate a menu of policy options for migration policy mak- ers; and provide technical assistance and capacity building for pilot projects, evaluation of policies, and data collection. KNOMAD is supported by a multi-donor trust fund established by the World Bank. The European Commission, and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Interna- tionale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH commissioned by and on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) are the contributors to the trust fund. The views expressed in this paper do not represent the views of the World Bank or the sponsoring organizations. All queries should be addressed to [email protected]. KNOMAD working papers, policy briefs, and a host of other resources on migration are available at www.KNOMAD.org. COVID-19 CRISIS THROUGH A MIGRATION LENS Migration and Development Brief 32 April 2020 Migration and Remittances Team Social Protection and Jobs World Bank Migration and Development Brief 32 iv COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens Contents Summary............................................................................................... viiii Acknowledgements.................................................................................. xi 1. Viewing the COVID-19 Crisis through a Migration Lens..............................1 1.1 Impacts on Employment of Foreign Workers and Their Earnings.....................3 1.2 Impacts on Internal Migration..................................................................5 1.3 Remittance Flows to Decline in 2020......................................................... 6 1.4 Slower Progress in Reducing Remittance Costs and other Migration-related Development Goals...........................................................9 1.5 Policy Responses Should Be Inclusive of Migrants and Their Remittances........10 2. Regional Trends in Migration and Remittance Flows.........................16 2.1 East Asia and the Pacific.......................................................................16 2.2 Europe and Central Asia.......................................................................19 2.3 Latin America and the Caribbean...........................................................21 2.4 Middle East and North Africa.............................................................. .23 2.5 South Asia..........................................................................................25 2.6 Sub-Saharan Africa.............................................................................27 Appendix: Data Notes and Methodologies for Forecasting Remittances and FDI............30 A.1 Estimation of Remittance Flows for 2019.................................................30 A.2 Methodology for Forecasting Remittances for 2020...................................30 A.3 Data on Remittances, Gross Domestic Product, Remittance Prices, Refugees, and Other Variables....................................................................30 A.4 Caveats.............................................................................................31 A.5 Methodology for Forecasting Foreign Direct Investment..............................31 References..............................................................................................33 Endnotes ...............................................................................................35 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Three Phases of the Spanish Flu, 1918–19.........................................3 Figure 1.2 Migrant Workers Are More Vulnerable to Risks of Unemployment During an Economic Crisis......................................................5 v Migration and Development Brief 32 vi COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens Figure 1.3 Event Study: Remittances to the Philippines Increased During the Bird Flu, but Decreased During the Global Financial Crisis....................6 Figure 1.4 Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries Expected to Decline in 2020..........................................................................7 Figure 1.5 Remittance Costs Remain High.......................................................9 Figure 2.1 Top Remittance Recipients in the East Asia and Pacific Region, 2019.....16 Figure 2.2 Remittance Fees to the Philippines Are Among the Lowest in the East Asia and Pacific Region...............................................................17 Figure 2.3 Remittance Inflows to Europe and Central Asia Remained Strong in 2019...........................................................................18 Figure 2.4 Russia Continued to Be the Least Expensive Country from Which to Send Money.........................................................................20 Figure 2.5 Remittances Represent a Large Share of Foreign Income in Latin America..................................................................21 Figure 2.6 Cost of Sending Money to Latin American and the Caribbean, 2018 and 2019..............................................................22 Figure 2.7 Remittance Inflows to the Middle East and North Africa in 2019...........23 Figure 2.8 Sending $200 within the Middle East and North Africa Is Less Expensive Than Sending $200 from Outside the Region........................ 24 Figure 2.9 Top Remittance Recipients in South Asia in 2019.............................. 25 Figure 2.10 Remittance Costs in South Asia Vary Widely between the Highest- and Lowest-Cost Corridors...................................................... 26 Figure 2.11 Top Remittance Recipients in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2019................ 27 Figure 2.12 Remittance Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa Vary Considerably.............. 28 List of Tables Table 1.1 Comparison of COVID-19 with Other Pandemics and the Global Financial Crisis.............................................................................2 Table 1.2 Estimates and Projections of Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Regions.........................................................................8 Table 1.3 Possible World Bank Interventions Addressing COVID-19’s Effects on Migration and Remittances.......................................................... 13 Table A.1 Panel Data Regression Estimates for Remittances............................. 30 Table A.2 Panel Data Regression Estimates of Foreign Direct Investment to Low- and Middle-Income Countries.......................................... 32 List of Boxes Box 1 Access to Health Care For Migrant Workers........................................... 11 vii Migration and Development Brief 32 Summary The economic crisis induced by COVID-19 have contributed to spreading the epidemic. could be long, deep, and pervasive when Governments need to address the challenges viewed through a migration lens. Lockdowns, facing internal migrants by including them in travel bans, and social distancing have brought health services and cash transfer and other global economic activities to a near standstill. social programs, and protecting them from Host countries face additional challenges in discrimination. many sectors, such as health and agriculture, that depend on the availability of migrant Migration flows are likely to fall, but the stock workers. Migrants face the risk of contagion of international migrants may not decrease im- and also the possible loss of employment, mediately, since migrants cannot return to their wages, and health insurance coverage. This countries due to travel bans and disruption to Migration and Development Brief provides transportation services. Migrant workers tend a prognosis of how these events might affect to be vulnerable to the loss of employment and global trends in international economic migra- wages during an economic crisis in their host tion and remittances in 2020 and 2021. country, more so than native-born workers. Lockdowns in labor camps and dormitories Considering that migrants tend to be concen- can also increase the risk of contagion among trated in urban economic centers (cities), and migrant workers. Many migrants have been are vulnerable to infection by the coronavirus, stranded due to the suspension of transport there is a need to include migrants in efforts to services. Some host countries have granted fight the coronavirus. Migrant remittances pro- visa extensions and temporary amnesty to mi- vide an economic lifeline to poor households in grant workers, and some have suspended the many countries; a reduction in remittance flows involuntary return of migrants. could increase poverty and reduce households’ access to much-needed health services. The In 2020, remittance flows to low- and mid- crisis could exacerbate xenophobic, discrimi- dle-income countries are expected to drop natory treatment of migrants, which calls for by around 20 percent to $445 billion, from greater vigilance against such practices.
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