Sep 2, 2016 the Outlook

The very active tropical season in the Western Hemisphere continues with numerous storms and Tropical Waves in motion. At the moment there are 2 systems that are of most concern for agricultural producers. First off former Hurricane Hermine made in Northern late last night with tremendous winds, and rain. Hermine currently moving through to the northeast at 18mph has left significant damage in it’s wake so far. Torrential rains are pushing through Georgia into as the storm retains a well defined circulation. Model consensus is high for the track of Hermine over the next 48 hours but then begin to diverge. Hermine will continue to move along or near the Southeast coast gradually weakening before emerging off the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Things get a little tricky after as Hermine moves offshore. Once this system moves into the warm Atlantic waters re-intesification is probable and this storm may regain hurricane status. General model consensuses are in agreement that Hermine will slow down on Sunday into Monday and stall in the Atlantic roughly 200 miles offshore. Models then bring the system off the coast on Monday and then become basically stationary into Wednesday. Longer range models bring the system into shore late next week before drifting out to sea on Friday. Much remains uncertain with this storms long range track at the moment and bears watching over the Holiday weekend.

We are also monitoring events in the Eastern Pacific Ocean that may impact Mexico next week. Forecasts give a high probability of a Tropical Depression forming off the Southwestern coast of Mexico near the Michoacan-Guerrero coast. This system may intensify into a strong Tropical Storm as it tracks toward Baja California Sur. The storm could produce heavy rains over portions of Southern Sinaloa, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan on Monday and Tuesday. Forecast models are not in agreement once the system nears Cabo San Lucas and the Sea of Cortez. At the moment most bring the storm into Sonora on Wednesday.

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