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(VITRANSCHART) VST (HSX) Update Report – May 28, 2010

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(VITRANSCHART) VST (HSX) Update Report – May 28, 2010 VIETNAM SEA TRANSPORT AND CHARTERING JSC (VITRANSCHART) VST (HSX) Update Report – May 28, 2010 BUY TARGET PRICE VND 32,000 We provide an update on Vietnam Sea Transport and Chartering JSC (VST) with a Transportation BUY recommendation for medium term investment at a target price of VND 32,000 per share, corresponding to a 2010 P/E of 7.7x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. We Key Indicators recommend investing in Vietnam Sea Transport and Chartering JSC (VST) for the key Price @ 5/28/2010 23,600 rationales: Target price 32,000 The sea transport sector has just overcome the most difficult period and is Discount to target price 36% currently seeing upward momentum. After falling down from a peak of 12,000 52-week low 13,000 points in the middle of 2008, the BDI touched the bottom of 663 points at the end of 2008 and hovered around this level during the first 3 quarters of 2009. Freight rates 52-week high 27,000 have begun to see signs of recovery since Q4 2009. At present, the BDI index is at Average 10 trading day volume 502,644 4,209 points (05/28/2010), up 40% from the end of 2009. And even with recent Outstanding shares 40,000,000 downturn in the world market due to sovereig n debt crisis arising from Greek , BDI still Market capitalization (VND bil) 944 have an increase of 25% m-o-m in May 2010. Recovery of the world economy Foreign ownership 1% coupled with the transport sector’s peak season in Q2 and Q3 are buoyant factors supporting a continued uptrend in freight rates. Valuation 2008 2009 2010 Enjoying the benefits of owning a young fleet with good transport capacity, Vitranschart (VST) is capable of accelerated growth as the economy improves. EPS (VND) 4,794 1,502 4,133 VST ranks 3rd in terms of number of vessels (16 vessels, in which 11 have deadweight nd EPS growth 140% -68% 175% tonnage of 22,000 – 28,000 DWT/vessel) and 2 in terms of total deadweight tonnage (317,542 DWT) among member companies of Vietnam National Shipping Lines P/E 5.2x 15.7x 5.7x (Vinalines). VST fleet’s average age of 13.6 years is currently the youngest in P/B 1.9x 1.9x 1.3x Vinalines. Focusing on the deadweight tonnage segment o f over 20,000 DWT with EV/EBITDA 2.2x 9.3x 4.9x occupancy rate of over 80%, VST is likely to diversify its sources of transport ROE 39% 12% 27% commodity as well as maximize its operating efficiency. This is a huge advantage ROIC 9% 2% 5% compared to companies transporting dry bulk cargo in the sector. Debt/Equity 3.2 4.0 3.5 VST’s financial performance in Q1/2010 was the most positive among its Dividend yield 11% 5% 5% peers... This result was an evidence of the company’s good operating performance. Ending Q1/2010, VST recorded VND421 billion of revenue and VND23 billion of Stock price earnings after tax, up 67% in revenue and 14 8% in earnings after tax over the same period of 2009. … laying foundation for a breakthrough profit in Q2 and Q3/2010. Q2 and Q3 are peak seasons for transport operation. In general with positive upside to freight rates, this period is expected to generate good earnings for the company. In addition, the liquidation of old vessels to rejuvenate the fleet will lend further support to assure the company’s profit. In Q2, VST will record an estimated profit of VND 23 billion from the liquidation of the Far East vessel. In tandem, in June 2010, VST will liquidate the Phuong Dong with estimated earnings after tax of VND38 billion, which will be possibly recorded in Q3/2010. Thus, VST’s earning after tax in Q2 & Q3 are Source: HOSE anticipated to touch VND118 billion , exceeding 31% of 2010 plan. Ownership structure 2010 – The beginning of VST’s grow th cycle. We predict VST is likely to record Vinalines 60% VND1,897 billion of revenue and VND165 billion of earnings after tax in 2010, corresponding to a 48% increase in revenue and 175% in earnings after tax over Institutional investors 17% 2009. Accordingly, VST’s 2010 P/E might only be around 5.7x, 30% lower than the Foreign investors 1% sector average of 8.2x. Some concerns about the world recovery may arise after Retail investors 22% recent Greek’s sovereign debt crisis, however, as VST fleet is handy-side ones which is still expected to have a continued freight rate uptrend, we believe VST’s profit growth story only begins. Dinh Thi Nhu Hoa Trinh Thanh Can Nguyen Hoai Nam Research Analyst – Sea Transport Director of Research and Analysis Director of Institutional Sales [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Telephone: (+84 8) 914 3588, ext: 140 Telephone: (+84 8) 914 3588, ext: 106 Telephone: (+84 8) 914 3588, ext:133 VST – Update report - Buy Company profile History General information 428 Nguyen Tat Thanh, Ward.18, District 4, Vietnam Sea Transport and Chartering JSC (Vitranschart) was Head office established on May 26, 1975 from taking over old sea transportation HCMC operators and their fleets including many old, small and damaged Telephone (84 - 8) 3940 4271 barges and vessels. In December 2007, Vit ranschart officially Fax (84 - 8) 3940 4711 started operating as a joint stock company and was a member of Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines). During the Website http:// www.vitranschart.com.vn development process, VST actively invested in renewing the fleet as Charter cap. 400,000,000,000 VND well as diversifying operations. VST was officially listed on the HOSE on February 20, 2009 with the Auditor Ha Noi Auditing and Accounting Company total initial capital of VND 400 billion. As of April 2010, the company fleet consists of 16 vessels with a total deadweight tonnage of 317,542 DWT, up 4.3% from the end of 2009. Business activities Board of Directors Huynh Hong Vu Chairperson Truong Dinh Son Co-Chairperson The company’s current core businesses include ship operating and chartering, and other commerical services such as training Le Thi Lan Member of the Board crewman, ship brokering, repairing and maintenance. To Tan Dung Member of the Board To Thi Thu Van Member of the Board Nguyen Minh Cuong Member of the Board Board of Management Truong Dinh Son General Director Le Thi Lan Deputy Director To Tan Dung Deputy Director Huynh Nam Anh Deputy Director Revenue Structure 2009 Gross margin in past years Trading, 12.34 Others, 4.20% % 2500.0bn 30% 24.49% 25% 2000.0 20% 1500.0 14.78% 15% 11.08% 1000.0 10% 500.0 5% - 0% Transportation operation, 83. 2008 2009 2010F 46% Reveune Gross profit margin www.vcsc.com.vn – Bloomberg VCSC <GO> May 28 2010 2 VST – Update report - Buy Income (bn VND) 2008 2009 2010 Growth 2008 2009 2010 Net Revenue 2,136 1,283 1,897 Revenue growth 52% -40% 48% Cost of goods sold (1,899) (1,093) (1,432) EBITDA growth 530% -70% 115% Sales & operating (95) (78) (118) EBIT growth 128% -51% 107% EBITDA 1,045 309 665 Net income growth 96% -69% 175% Depreciation (668) (126) (285) EPS growth 2% -69% 86% EBIT 377 183 380 Gross margin 11% 15% 24% Interest expenses (111) (103) (160) EBITDA/Revenue 49% 24% 35% Profit before tax 266 80 220 EBIT/Revenue 80% 34% 50% Corporate income tax (75) (20) (55) Minority interest - - - EPS (VND) 4,794 1,502 4,133 Net income 192 60 165 DPS (VND) 2,500 1,200 1,200 Balance (bn VND) 2008 2009 2010 Indicators 2008 2009 2010 Cash & cash equivalent 254 64 134 Liquidity ratios ST financial investment 254- - - Current ratio 0.68 0.45 0.80 Accounts receivable 84- 98 154 Quick ratio 0.61 0.34 0.62 Inventory 4484 75 98 Other current assets 44 4477 57 43 Profitability ratios Current assets 77 459 77 294 429 ROE 39% 12% 27% ROA 8% 2% 5% Long-term receivables - - - ROIC 9% 2% 5% Fixed assets 2,052- 2,472 3,078 Investment properties 2,052- - - Efficiency ratios Financial investments 20- - - Days receivables 6 13 20 Other long-term assets 2720 32 - Days inventory 9 25 25 Long-term assets 2,09827 2,504 3,106 Days payables 116 186 103 Total assets 2,557098 2,798 3,535 2,557 Leverage ratios Current liabilities 678 655 535 Debt/equity 3.28 4.07 3.59 Long-term liabilities 1,376678 1,651 2,286 Debt/Capital employ 0.88 0.94 0.85 Total liabilities 21,054376 2,306 2,821 Interest coverage 3.40 1.78 2.38 2,054 Charter capital 503 493 714 BVPS (1,000 VNĐ) 12.58 12.32 12.06 Minority interest 400503 400 592 Total owner's equity 400- - - Liabilities & Equity 2,557- 2,798 3,535 2,557 Cash flow (bn VND) 2008 2009 Valuation 2008 2009 2010 Profit before tax 266 80 At market price of 23,600 23,600 23,600 Depreciation & prepaids 668 126 P/E 5.2x 15.7x 5.7x Provisional accounts 5 (4) P/B 1.9x 1.9x 1.3x Unrealised foreign exchange 18 10 EV/EBITDA 2.2x 9.3x 4.9x Investmentsprofit/loss profit/loss (253) (70) Dividend yield 11% 5% 5% Interest expense 111 103 Operating profit before 815 245 movements in working capital At target price of 32,000 32,000 32,000 Capital expenditures 75 (19) P/E 6.7x 21.3x 7.7x Interest paid (89) (92) P/B 2.5x 2.6x 1.8x Corporate income tax paid (47) (33) EV/EBITDA 2.6x 10.5x 5.6x Other (20) (76) Dividend yield 8% 4% 4% Net cash flow operating (81) (221) Acquisition of fixed assets (1,134) (589) Disposals of fixed assets 247 121 Receipts of dividends 10 - Net cash flow invest (876) (468) Disbursement from loans 930 1.064 Payment to debt principal (471) (782) Dividend payment (62) (27) Other - - Net cash flow financial 397 256 Net cash flow in year 255 (188) Cash at beginning year - 254 Exchange rate adjustment (1) (2) Cash at end of year 254 64 Source: 2009 Financial statement, VCSC forecast www.vcsc.com.vn – Bloomberg VCSC <GO> May 28 2010 3 VST – Update report - Buy Sea transport sector is seeing upward momentum on course with the economy’s recovery cycle Freight rates have overcome the breakeven point and are seeing a positive uptrend in the long term.
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