C O R P O R A T I O N Proclaiming Airpower Air Force Narratives and American Public Opinion from 1917 to 2014 Alan J. Vick For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1044 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9014-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The U.S. Department of Defense is entering a period of fiscal austerity that could last decades, which would be unprecedented in the past 70 years. In addition to its potential duration, the coming age of defense austerity also promises to be unusually challenging for the U.S. Air Force (USAF) because it is following a decade of wartime operational tempo and two decades in which relatively little modernization took place. The combination of high and continuing operational demands with a hiatus in modernization has greatly stressed the USAF as near- term readiness increasingly competes for funds with programs needed to meet future challenges. To address these and related policy issues, the USAF Quadren- nial Defense Review Office (HAF/CVAR) commissioned a RAND Project AIR FORCE Fiscal Year 2014 study. The sponsoring office was particularly interested in help with two problems: (1) measuring the benefits of high readiness levels across the USAF and (2) gain- ing deeper insights into the relationship between USAF narratives and public attitudes toward the service. To offer empirically based insights on those issues, the RAND study identified four questions for analy- sis: (1) What has been the historic demand for joint force and USAF responsiveness over the past 60 years? (2) What are the responsiveness demands associated with current U.S. strategy, operational plans, and planning scenarios? (3) What lessons can be learned from the New Look Era, when airpower was widely viewed as the cornerstone of U.S. national security? and (4) How have USAF public narratives and popu- lar attitudes toward airpower evolved over the past century? iii iv Proclaiming Airpower This report presents the findings from research directed at the final question. Other forthcoming reports address the other three ques- tions. The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf. This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in January 2014. The draft report, issued in December 2014, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................... 1 The Policy Problem ................................................................ 5 Study Methodology ................................................................ 5 Purpose of This Document ....................................................... 5 Organization ........................................................................ 6 CHAPTER TWO The Social Currency of Aviation and Airpower ............................. 7 Introduction ........................................................................ 7 Aviation and the American Imagination ........................................ 8 Quantitative Measures of Social Currency .................................... 24 Conclusions ........................................................................31 CHAPTER THREE U.S. Air Force Public Narratives, 1917–2014 ...............................33 Introduction .......................................................................33 Narratives and Influence Pathways .............................................37 USAF Public Narratives, 1917–2014 ........................................... 42 Crafting a Compelling Narrative ...............................................83 v vi Proclaiming Airpower CHAPTER FOUR Public Attitudes Toward the U.S. Air Force, 1935–2014 ................ 87 1935–1940 ........................................................................ 88 1941–1945 ......................................................................... 90 1946–1990 ........................................................................ 92 1991–2003 ....................................................................... 104 2004–2014 ....................................................................... 116 Insights for the USAF .......................................................... 131 CHAPTER FIVE Conclusions ..................................................................... 133 Findings ......................................................................... 133 Recommendations .............................................................. 136 Final Thoughts .................................................................. 139 Abbreviations ................................................................... 141 Bibliography .................................................................... 143 Figures and Table Figures 2.1. Airmen on Time Magazine Covers, 1923–2014 ................ 26 2.2. Google Ngram Viewer Plot: Aviator and Airminded, 1900–2008 .......................................................... 27 2.3. Google Ngram Viewer Plot: Aviation and Air Power, 1910–2008 ........................................................... 28 2.4. Google Ngram Viewer Plot: Air Force, Airmen, USAF, Air Power, and Strategic Bombing, 1920–2008 ...................29 2.5. Google Ngram Viewer Plot: USAF Technologies, 1984–2008 .......................................................... 30 3.1. Airpower Books Authored by Prominent Airmen, 1918–2013 ........................................................... 42 4.1. Percentage of Respondents Supporting Expansion of Military Service Branches ...........................................89 4.2. U.S. Public Sees U.S. Airpower as Having First Claim on Resources .........................................................91 4.3. U.S. Public Support for Independent Air Force, 1942–1943 ........................................................... 92 4.4. “Which Enemy Military Service Is Most Dangerous to the United States?” .......................................................93 4.5. U.S. Public Opinion on “Most Important Branch of the Armed Forces” ...................................................... 94 4.6. U.S. Public Support for the Bombing of North Vietnam, 1965–1968 ........................................................... 98 4.7. “How Do You Think the United States Should Respond to the Terrorists Acts Attributed to Libya?” .................... 102 4.8. U.S. Public Support for the Eldorado Canyon Air Strikes .... 103 vii viii Proclaiming Airpower 4.9. “Should the United States and Its Allies Begin a Ground Attack Soon to Drive the Iraqis Out of Kuwait, or Should We Hold Off for Now and Continue to Rely on Airpower to Do the Job?” ..................................................... 106 4.10. “Just Your Best Guess, Do You Think the Air War Will Be Enough to Force Iraq Out of Kuwait, or Do You Think It Will Take a Ground War?” ............................ 107 4.11. Public Support for Air Strikes Against Serbian Forces, Balkans Conflict, 1992–1995 .................................... 110 4.12. “Which Branch of the Armed Services Do You Think Should Be