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Roadmaps for Awarding 5G Spectrum in the MENA Region October 2020

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Roadmaps for Awarding 5G Spectrum in the MENA Region October 2020 Roadmaps for awarding 5G spectrum in the MENA region October 2020 Copyright © 2020 GSMA ROADMAPS FOR AWARDING 5G SPECTRUM IN THE MENA REGION The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators Plum is an independent consulting firm, focused on the worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 telecommunications, media, technology, and adjacent companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset sectors. We apply extensive industry knowledge, consulting and device makers, software companies, equipment providers experience, and rigorous analysis to address challenges and and internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent opportunities across regulatory, radio spectrum, economic, industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry- commercial, and technology domains. leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles Authors and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional Val Jervis, Tim Miller, Yi Shen Chan, Akhiljeet Kaur, conferences. Aude Schoentgen For more information, please visit the GSMA corporate website at www.gsma.com. Follow the GSMA on Twitter: @GSMA. About this study This study for the GSMA seeks to identify a roadmap by which governments and regulators can make available spectrum to support the deployment of 5G services in the MENA region. The study goes on to identify where countries currently sit on this roadmap and identifies recommended actions for countries in the region. ROADMAPS FOR AWARDING 5G SPECTRUM IN THE MENA REGION Contents Summary 2 5G in MENA countries 3 Roadmaps 3 Recommendations based on international best practices 4 1 Introduction 6 2 Spectrum for 5G 8 2.1 5G frequency bands 8 2.2 A generic 5G roadmap 11 2.3 Example case study: Saudi Arabia 12 3 Current status of markets in MENA region 14 4 Roadmaps 16 4.1 Roadmap for Tunisia 17 4.2 Roadmaps for Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Turkey 20 4.3 Roadmaps for Djibouti, Libya and Sudan 20 4.4 Roadmaps for Iraq, Mauritania and Palestine 21 5 Recommendations 23 5.1 Existing spectrum 23 5.2 Technology neutral licences 25 Appendix A Roadmap considerations 26 A.1 Spectrum clearance considerations 26 A.2 Timing for 5G spectrum release 27 A.3 Objectives of award 27 A.4 Method of award 28 A.5 Licensing and obligations 29 A.6 Fees 30 Appendix B Country analysis 31 B.1 Algeria 31 B.2 Djibouti 33 B.3 Egypt 33 B.4 Iraq 35 B.5 Jordan 36 B.6 Lebanon 38 B.7 Libya 40 B.8 Mauritania 42 B.9 Morocco 43 B.10 Palestine 45 B.11 Sudan 46 B.12 Tunisia 48 B.13 Turkey 49 Appendix C Country abbreviations 50 1 ROADMAPS FOR AWARDING 5G SPECTRUM IN THE MENA REGION Summary Roughly every 10 years, a new generation of mobile technology comes along, bringing fundamental improvements to the capabilities of mobile networks and changes to spectrum management approaches as illustrated in Figure 1. Today the mobile industry is still in the nascent stages of the 5G era. According to the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) in March 2020 there were 70 commercial networks in 40 countries that had launched one or more 3GPP-compliant 5G services (63 mobile and 34 5G FWA or home broadband services)1. In countries such as China, South Korea, Finland, Germany, the UK and the US the markets are all relatively mature with high levels of smartphone adoption and 4G penetration, as a result of being among the first to deploy LTE in the early 2010s. FIGURE 1 EVOLUTION OF MOBILE GENERATIONS AND CHANGES TO SPECTRUM MANAGEMENT APPROACHES Dawn of mobile data era Arrival of 5G 5 MHz channels Multiple 5G use cases envisaged Excess demand for 3G spectrum Channels of 5 MHz up to 1 GHz Auctions become the preferred across wide range of bands mode of assignment Range of licensing and award methods possible 2G (GSM) 3G (CDMA/UTMS) 4G (LTE) 5G (NR) Mobile voice & SMS Smartphone & apps era 200 kHz channels (900/1800 Multiple LTE bands (sub-3 GHz) MHz) Scarcity under most situations Little/no scarcity 5 MHz up to 20 MHz channels Licences awarded directly or via Auction/renewals/hybrid beauty contests awards Refarming of 2G/3G spectrum Widespread 5G adoption will take time, with 1.8 billion 5G 4G in many places today, 4G will have a key role, coexisting connections by 2025, representing a share of approximately alongside 5G well into the 2030s3. 2 20400 per cent . Just as 2G and 3G still continue to exist alongside 400 340 340 339.2 326.4 330 331.9 310 299 300 282 280 300 270 300 260 1 GSMA 5G market snapshot: March 2020 at247 https://gsma.com/technology/5g 250 2 GSMA https://www.gsma.com/mobileeconomy/ 203.2 3 200 According to Ericsson, 188.44G will continue to be the dominant mobile technology in the mid-2020s, accounting200 for majority of connections globally. Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2019. 150 2 100 100 18 0 0 PLS LBN LBY IRQ DZA JOR EGY SDN MAR TUN TUR KOR JPN TWN FRA SGP GBR DEU KSA 900 1800 2100 694 698 703 733 736 753 758 788 791 UL UPLINK UL GAP DL DOWNLINK DL 5 MHz 30 MHz 3 MHz 5 MHz 30 MHz 3 MHz 3400 3420 3451 3500 3540 OMMP ORANGE (LTE TDD) OOREDOO (LTE TDD) 20 MHz 49 MHz 40 MHz ROADMAPS FOR AWARDING 5G SPECTRUM IN THE MENA REGION 5G in MENA countries enable 5G in the most efficient way possible. It also provides In the MENA region, GCC countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, recommendations based on international best practices. Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become 5G pioneers, with governments and regulators awarding spectrum Roadmaps and mobile operators deploying some of the world’s first 5G Figure 2 provides a generic roadmap that can be applied to 5G networks. This report looks at the need for 5G spectrum to be or the introduction of any other previous generation of mobile made available, and the current status across the MENA region. technology. It then sets out a roadmap, to help governments and regulators FIGURE 2 GENERIC ROADMAP Technology Award design, Identification of Spectrum Spectrum Award definition and including spectrum clearance valuation implementation restrictions bandwidth and obligations 1500 1500 It is important to recognise that although the steps may be the • Spectrum valuation. This will inform auction reserves or 1390 same for each country, the detailed activities under each may spectrum charges. When considering the level of investment vary.1200 Consultation with interested parties during the process is necessary1200 for new 5G networks it will be important that important to achieving optimum outcomes. these are not set at levels that will impact on network roll-out 990 1010 and quality and drive up the cost916.9 of services.933.4 •900 Identification of spectrum. The key frequency bands 900 860 • Award design. There are three main approaches to spectrum to prioritise for 5G are the 700 MHz, the 3.5 GHz range, 777 award: auctions, beauty contests and direct award4. The and mmWaves. However, it may be necessary to consider 625 600 532 534.2 approach600 586.4 adopted and associated licence obligations will alternative bands based on what has already been awarded need to take account of policy objectives, available spectrum for mobile. 340 359 308.6 328.4 and market specifics (for example, the number of operators, 280 •300 Spectrum 203.2 clearance. 210 247 The approach may vary depending or300 current spectrum holdings). It should be noted that on factors such as the density of use; ease of moving depending on the timescales for availability of different incumbents18 to alternative frequency bands or alternative frequency bands and award design it may be appropriate to 0 0 technologies; and impact on services and users. In some have a single multi-band award or several separate ones. PLS IRQ LBN DZA EGY SDN LBY JOR TUN MAR TUR FRA SGP KOR TWN GBR HKG DEU KSA JPN cases, the incumbents may be able to remain through • Award implementation. The final step is the actual award. geographic sharing (for example, where there is limited This will normally be underpinned by documentation that governmental use or existing regional licences). For Sub-1 GHz 1-3 GHzprovides3-6 GHz all the necessary details of the award process, assigned spectrum, it may only be necessary to realign the spectrum on offer, licence obligations and other essential band assignments to provide contiguous frequencies and information for potential licensees. maximise spectrum efficiency for 4G and 5G. • Technology definition and restrictions. This will inform the Not all the countries considered in this report are ready for 5G; technical licence obligations and the amount of spectrum some are still in the process of rolling out LTE services, as shown and geographic availability of the spectrum. in Figure 3. The data comes from GSMA Intelligence, operators and inputs from regulators and ministries and other online sources. Identification Technology Award design, 4G networks Demand Identification of Spectrum Spectrum Award and award of 4G definition and including established identified for 5G spectrum clearance valuation bandwidth and implementation 4 Forspectrum the GSMA auction best practice position see https://www.gsma.com/spectrum/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Auction-Best-Practice.pdfrestrictions obligations 3 Iraq Djibouti Algeria Mauritania Libya Egypt Palestine Sudan Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia Turkey Technology Award design, Identification of Spectrum Spectrum Award definition and including spectrum clearance valuation implementation restrictions bandwidth and obligations 1500 1500 1390 1200 1200 990 1010 916.9 933.4 900 900 860 777 625 600 532 534.2 600 586.4 340 359 308.6 328.4 280 300 203.2 210 247 300 18 0 0 PLS
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