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GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative Vol.3 GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative Report 3: 2018 Counter-Terrorism Update 02 GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative 03 StEERING COMMITTEE AND AdviSORS CONTENT ⊲ Hon. Michael Chertoff, (Chair), former Secretary ⊲ Dr Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke, Associate Introduction 05 of US Department for Homeland Security, Professor of Intelligence, The Norwegian co-founder and Chairman of The Chertoff Group. Defence Intelligence University College, Counter-Terrorism Developments and Senior Visiting Research Fellow, Department in the European Union 07 ⊲ John Cuddihy, Visiting Professor, Coventry of War Studies, King’s College London. Other Transnational Developments 10 University, former Head of Counter Terrorism, Police Scotland. ⊲ Professor Sir David Omand GCB, Visiting National counter-terrorism developments 11 Professor, Department of War Studies, King’s ⊲ Iulian Fota, former National Security Advisor to College London and former Director of the Austria 11 the President of Romania and Director Government Communications Headquarters Belgium: Threat Lowered of the National Defence College of Romania. (GCHQ). as CT Response Develops 11 Bulgaria: Laws, Plans and Proposals 12 France: Unprecedented Threat and a Multi-Faceted Response 13 Germany: Prevention and Surveillance 14 REPOrt AUTHORS Greece: A Different Threat 15 ⊲ Dr Patrick Bury, Lecturer in Defence and ⊲ S tanislav Matejka, Junior research fellow Ireland: Dissidents; Strategic Studies at the University of Bath. at GLOBSEC Policy Institute. Increasing Jihadist Activity 15 Italy: Expulsions 16 ⊲ Daniela Richterova, doctoral candidate at the ⊲ Viktor Szucs, Project coordinator Department of Politics and International Studies, at GLOBSEC Policy Institute. The Netherlands: New Laws 17 University of Warwick, United Kingdom. United Kingdom: Unprecedented ⊲ Dr Kacper Rekawek, Head of defence Threat and New Solutions 17 and security programme at GLOBSEC United States: Increase in HVEs 19 Policy Institute. Summary and Future Direction 20 Summary of 2017 – 2018 Counter-Terrorism Updates 22 GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative Report 3: 2018 Counter-Terrorism Update May 2018 04 GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative 05 EXPErtS CONSULTED INTRODUCTION FOR THE NatiONAL Since the May 2017 release of GIRI’s last report, local grievances. As Jones and Smith accurately Towards a Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism Centre surmise: ´the story of al-Qaeda, now ISIL, is of Excellence, the European Union (EU) and the essentially how a transnational movement aligns CHAPTERS United States (US) have witnessed a further 15 with local militant groups with country-specific Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) related grievances to increase their global reach and terrorist attacks. Although we are fully aware of influence. Jemaah Islamiyah – and now ISIL – ⊲ O livier de France, Research Director, ⊲ John Morrison, Director, Terrorism the growing threat from far-right terrorism, and provide a case study of how regional groupings The French Institute for International and Extremism Research Centre, Senior Lecturer the persistent threat from other terrorist groups in come to share an ideology and a strategy whilst and Strategic Affairs, Paris. in Criminology and Criminal Justice, University some nations, complimenting our last reports, the at the same time sustaining their own distinctive of East London. main focus of this report is on jihadist terrorism as character, structure and practice.’1 ⊲ L aurence Bindner, Consultant on the Spread this has continued to cause the greatest number of Jihadist Content Online, Paris. ⊲ Jan Raudszus, Head of Unit, State Bureau of casualties in the transatlantic space. While Meanwhile, as this report highlights, numerous of Investigations Bremen. ISIL continues to evolve and mutate, these latest positive developments in the counter-terrorism (CT) ⊲ Damien Saverot, Chargé de Mission, Chaire attacks have killed 58 and wounded at least 758 field have been made at both the international and Moyen-Orient Méditerranée, École Normale ⊲ Dr Matenia Sirseloudi, MPS Analysis, Bremen. civilians. As a result, between May 2014 and May national levels. These underscore that both the EU Supérieure, Sciences Po, Paris. 2018 at least 54 serious ISIL-related attacks have and numerous national governments are gradually ⊲ Nadya Stoyanova, Analyst, Center for the Study occurred inside the EU and US, killing 423 and revising and/or introducing new legislation to ⊲ Giovanni Giacalone, Italian Team for Security, of Democracy, Sofia. wounding almost 2,000 citizens, over 350 of whom address the evolving threat. In general, the Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies, were critically injured. In the last year, major attacks legislative approach can be divided into three Milan. ⊲ Annelies Pauwels, Associate Analyst, European have occurred in Manchester, London, Barcelona main elements: the introduction of new physical Union Institute for Security Studies, Paris. and New York, while smaller attacks have targeted and digital surveillance laws and limitations on the ⊲ E leni Fotou, Forensic Psychologist, PhD Berlin, Paris, Warsaw, Brussels, Milan, Linz and freedom of movement of terrorist suspects; tougher Candidate, VIA-STOP Greece, Thessaloniki. ⊲ Daniel Koehler, Director, GIRDS. Minnesota. As with previous years, these attacks sentences for convicted terrorists; and better have ranged from the large scale sophisticated funding of CT intelligence and police agencies ⊲ Jessica Sciarone, Researcher, Institute of ⊲ Jörg Peschak, Researcher, University of Vienna. (Barcelona) and the crude (both London), to the alongside the recognition that better institutional Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, small scale (Linz, Brussels) with an increase in cooperation at both the national and international The Hague. ⊲ C oordination Unit for Threat Analysis marauding attack methods during this period. level is desirable. These legislative reforms have in Belgium Europol data released in June 2017 revealed that been complemented by progress integrating EU ⊲ Thomas Renard, Senior Research Fellow, 718 jihadist terror suspects were arrested in the data platforms and increased technical measures Egmont Institute, Brussels. EU during the preceding 12 months, up from 687 to deter terrorists from attacking public spaces, in 2015 and 395 in 2014. The summer of 2017 also detect them in cyber space and through financial marked the highpoint of jihadist attacks in Europe transactions. Nevertheless, reflective of different in terms of casualties, but it is interesting to note threat levels and national cultures, there remain that there has not been a major attack reported in major differences in the approaches adopted the EU or US so far in 2018. between individual EU member states, the wider international community and the emphasis they Nevertheless, it is dangerous to believe that the place on each of the above elements in countering jihadist terrorist threat in general, and that of ISIL jihadist terrorism. The same is true of the wider in particular, has fully diminished. It is more likely international community. Similarly, a lack of capacity, that the group is regrouping, and will emerge as capability, trust and information exchange between something else, somewhere else. For example, intelligence and police agencies at the national ISIL-related terrorist-attacks have increased in level in some countries – and at international level Afghanistan as the group exploits insecurity and in many countries – remains. 1 D. Jones and M.L.R. Smith, ‘How did Islamic State establish a franchise in Southeast Asia?’, The Daily Telegraph, 21 January 2016, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ worldnews/islamic-state/12114073/How-did-Islamic-State-establish-a-franchise-in-southeast-Asia.html (accessed 8.5.2018). 06 GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative GLOBSEC Intelligence Reform Initiative 07 It is towards these issues of capability, trust and information exchange that GIRI’s work over the COUNTER-TERRORISM past year has been primarily focused. Building on our last report and in consultation with a wide range of senior CT policy makers and practitioners DEVELOPMENTS IN on both sides of the Atlantic, GIRI has been exploring practical measures for improving inter- institutional and transnational trust amongst THe EUROPEAN UNION a diverse array of intelligence and police agencies in the transatlantic space. Our approach remains guided by conversations with practitioners about As we highlighted in our first report, Reforming The Directive also included legislation to help the challenges they face in addressing the evolving Transatlantic Counter-Terrorism, the 2015 Paris and strengthen and coordinate emergency response jihadist threat in terms of capability and information 2016 Brussels attacks revealed major seams in the mechanisms immediately after an attack and exchange and finding bottom-up organisational EU’s, and some Member States’, CT law enforcement bolstered existing legislation on terrorist victim’s solutions to help address them. Capacity is also and intelligence capabilities and capacities. As rights. Member states have 18 months to integrate an issue, hence the need for our holistic approach a result of these attacks, changes to the EU’s CT these into national law, but the non-Schengen UK incorporating the public, private, academic and third legislation occurred in March 2017, when the (which already has a similar law) and Ireland, and sectors
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