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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Developments in British Politics 10 10th edition Edited by Richard Heffernan Colin Hay Meg Russell Philip Cowley 9781137494740_01_prexviii_1pp.indd iii 6/1/16 11:47 AM Copyrighted material_9781137494740. Uncorrected proof version. Please do not distribute. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION © Selection and editorial matter © Richard Heffernan, Colin Hay, Meg Russell and Philip Cowley 2016 Individual chapters (in order): © Andrew Gamble; Ben Yong and Tim Bale; Alan Renwick; Paul Webb; Michael Kenny; Meg Russell; Philip Cowley; Maria T. Grasso; Catherine Haddon; Richard Heffernan; Deborah Mabbett; Maria Sobolewska and Robert Ford; Charlie Jeffrey; Andrew Geddes; Colin Hay 2016 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. 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NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Contents List of Boxes, Figures and Tables xii Acknowledgements xv Notes on Contributors xvi 1 What’s British about British Politics? 1 Andrew Gamble A multinational state 3 A centralised state 7 An uncodified constitution 9 A post-imperial state 11 An Anglo-liberal political economy 15 A liberal political culture 17 2 Britain’s Experience of Coalition Government: Continuity and Change 20 Ben Yong and Tim Bale The Whitehall model in theory and practice 20 The impact of the 2010–2015 coalition 23 Coalition policymaking: Case studies 29 The political consequences of coalition 34 Conclusion 36 3 Voting Behaviour and Electoral Outcomes 39 Alan Renwick Citizens’ changing approaches to voting and politics 41 Symptoms of electoral change at Westminster 42 The impact of electoral systems 46 Conclusion 56 vii 9781137494740_01_prexviii_1pp.indd vii 6/1/16 11:47 AM Copyrighted material_9781137494740. Uncorrected proof version. Please do not distribute. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION viii Contents 4 The Party System: Turbulent Multipartyism or Duopolistic Competition? 57 Paul Webb The transformation of two-party unitary politics in terms of vote share, seat share and party membership, 1970–2010 58 Party politics 2010–2015 63 Conclusion: Multiparty realignment or return to stable two-party politics? 76 5 Ideological Politics and the Party System 79 Michael Kenny The return of ideology? 80 The context and drivers of change, 2010–2015 82 The right and centre-right 84 The centre-left and a socialist alternative 86 Working-class alienation and the left 88 Territory, identity and political ideology 89 Right-populism ascendant? 92 The dream of an Anglosphere 93 Other ideological sources 94 Conclusion 95 6 Parliament: A Significant Constraint on Government 97 Meg Russell Traditional views of the Westminster Parliament 98 Parliament before 2010 99 The post-2010 Parliament: The numbers 101 The 2010 coalition Parliament 102 Party management in Parliament 103 The power of Parliament 106 The coalition and parliamentary reform 110 The early months of the 2015 Parliament 112 Party management in Parliament 112 The power of Parliament 113 The Conservative government and parliamentary reform 115 Conclusion: An ever more independent Parliament? 117 7 Political Recruitment and the Political Class 120 Philip Cowley Who’s there and who’s not 122 Change, and its causes 126 9781137494740_01_prexviii_1pp.indd viii 6/1/16 11:47 AM Copyrighted material_9781137494740. Uncorrected proof version. Please do not distribute. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Contents ix A broadening debate 129 Why it matters (or doesn’t) 132 Career politicians 137 Conclusion 139 8 Political Participation 141 Maria T. Grasso The evolution of political participation 142 Understanding the roots of political disengagement 143 Is participation declining or are young people simply participating in different ways? 148 Deepening inequalities in political participation? 153 Conclusion: The future of political participation in Britain 156 9 Developments in the Civil Service 159 Catherine Haddon Changes to size and shape 161 Changes in skills and role 164 Management, leadership and reform 169 Impartiality, politicisation and relationship with ministers 173 Conclusion: Future trends for the civil service 179 10 Politics and the News Media: Messages and Messengers 181 Richard Heffernan Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose… 181 Politicians and the mainstream media: news being both obstacle and resource 185 Elections, political personalisation and ‘authenticity’ 190 Human fallibility: Getting it wrong 194 Noises off? Social media and its political impacts 196 Conclusion 200 11 Governing in Times of Austerity 201 Deborah Mabbett Austerity and the bond markets 203 How much austerity has there been? 205 The impact of austerity on public services and living standards 209 The political consequences of austerity 211 Growth, fiscal rules and fiscal monitoring 214 Conclusion 217 9781137494740_01_prexviii_1pp.indd ix 6/1/16 11:47 AM Copyrighted material_9781137494740. Uncorrected proof version. Please do not distribute. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION x Contents 12 The Politics of Immigration: Old and New 219 Maria Sobolewska and Robert Ford The second wave of immigration and the rise of immigration as a political issue 219 Not all immigrants are equal 221 Impacts of immigration: Evidence and perceptions 225 Immigration and the growing polarisation of British electorate 227 Generational divisions 227 Ethnicity 228 Political responses to immigration: Cross-pressured elites and the ‘policy gap’ 229 Immigration policy: Made in Brussels? 234 Political party best on immigration 235 UKIP: An anti-immigrant and anti-politics party 236 The legacy of the first wave of immigration and the BME vote 238 What next: A diversity divide in British politics and a ‘Brexit’? 240 13 The United Kingdom after the Scottish Referendum 242 Charlie Jeffery The Scottish referendum debate 243 The constitutional chain reaction unfolds 250 Towards the next Scotland Act 251 Thinking of England 253 The chain reaction continues? 256 Reforms without end 258 The mystery of the missing centre 259 Outlook: The UK as a disintegrating state 260 14 Britain and the European Union 261 Andrew Geddes Visions of Europe 262 Growth in popular opposition to the EU 265 ‘Leave’ and ‘remain’: Alignments in the pro- and anti-EU debate 274 Renegotiating the terms of EU membership 276 To where does the exit door lead? 279 Conclusion 281 9781137494740_01_prexviii_1pp.indd x 6/1/16 11:47 AM Copyrighted material_9781137494740. Uncorrected proof version. Please do not distribute. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Contents xi 15 Developments in (33 years of) British Politics 283