The Canadian Army

January–February 2019 Volume 79, Number 1 RCMI The Journal of the Royal Canadian Military Institute

Founded 1890 SITREP The Canadian Army

—LCOL GRAHAM WALSH Inside this Issue

‘The .50 Cal at dusk.’ The Deputy Commander upbeat on the future of the Army Reserve Toronto Scottish on their by Bob Kennedy ��3 Canadian Army Reserves: A New Era of Optimism by John Selkirk ��5 mission task assignment Instant impact: The Integrated Soldier System by Chris Thatcher ��7 training (Reserves story Operational Influencers by Grant Cree �� 10 page five). Android vs Human Soldier: What Near-Future Warfare Will Look Like by Konrad Mech �� 12

www.rcmi.org @rcmiHQ From the Editor

appy New Year! Welcome back from the fun, feeding and frenzy of the Holiday Season. If 2019 proves to be anything like 2018 we will have more than enough Hdefence and security-related issues to address, both in this Royal Canadian Military Institute publication, as well as in our event programming. Founded 1890 For Canada, the new year is not starting out in an auspicious manner. The Patron diplomatic friction between Canada and Saudi Arabia that was initiated via a Her Excellency the Right Honourable Julie Payette tweet from the Minister of Global Affairs concerning the treatment of women and Governor General of Canada human rights in general in Saudi Arabia was further exacerbated by our extremely Vice Patrons rapid acceptance of a young Saudi woman who claimed, while escaping via Thai- The Honourable Elizabeth Dowdeswell, OC, OOnt Lieutenant Governor of Ontario land, that her life was in danger. While this gesture has been hailed as yet another General Jonathan Vance, CMM, MSC, CD Chief of Defence Staff example of Canada’s commitment to women’s rights and human rights, there are His Worship John Tory concerns that the overt politicization of this case may lead to further retaliation Mayor of Toronto by the Saudis, while simultaneously potentially endangering the individual who Officers & Directors has already received death threats here in Canada. LCdr/Dr. Michael J. Hoare, CD (Ret’d)—President and Executive Director Then there are the Chinese. Late into 2018, the Canadian government, Col Jay B. Claggett, CD (Ret’d)—Vice President ostensibly at the behest of the American, arrested a very senior executive of the Mr. James H. Lutz, MA—Vice President Capt Rodney W. J. Seyffert, CD (Ret’d)—Secretary Chinese firm Huawei who was passing through a Canadian airport, and who was BGen Paul A. Hayes, OMM, CD (Ret’d)—Director wanted in the US on charges related to an alleged move by Huawei to undermine Mr. Robert C. Kay, JD—Director Capt Stewart C. Kellock, MOM, CStJ, CD—Director US sanctions on Iran. While the Canadian authorities might have resorted to some Ms. Michele Walkau, MEd—Director form of creative incompetence in order to avoid the inevitable diplomatic fallout, HCol Bryan J. R. Brulotte, CD—Director the individual was detained pending extradition to the US. Almost immediately, Past President two Canadian citizens working in China were arrested on charges that they were HCol Gilbert W. Taylor a danger to Chinese national security. In early 2019, another Canadian who was Honoraries already in a Chinese jail for alleged drug smuggling offenses was re-tried and sen- HLGen Richard Rohmer, OC, CMM, DFC, O.Ont, tenced to be executed. While the Canadian government has, of course, appealed KStJ, OL, Legion d’Honneur, QC Honorary Vice President to the Chinese for clemency and the release of these three Canadian citizens, at Dr. J. L. Granatstein, OC, FRSC time of writing the diplomatic imbroglio had not been resolved. Dr. Desmond Morton, OC, CD, FRSC Honorary Historians These are but two of the “interesting” situations that are currently roiling Mr. Arthur Manvell Honorary Librarian the Canadian government. One could add several others, including the US partial LCol J. Roy Weir, CD, AdeC, QC (Ret’d) government shutdown; the Brexit mess; ongoing, if not increasing, insecurity in Honorary Solicitor

Mali (in spite of our relatively small, albeit effective, presence in that country); Honorary Chaplains the potential withdrawal of US troops from Syria which may endanger Kurdish Maj The Rev Gillian Federico, CD forces and increase the maneuver room for Iranian ones, etc. etc. All of this is LCdr The Rev .J David Mulholland (Ret’d) HLCol The Rev Mark L. Sargent, CD occurring, of course, against the impending October election. It would be quite a shock to the Canadian electorate if the usual debates regarding economic and General Manager social policies were overtaken by foreign affairs, diplomacy or, my goodness, Mr. Michael T. Jones defence and security issues! Happy New Year indeed! Controller In this edition of SITREP we have, as promised, focused on the Army. Our Ms. Elena Trouba Director, Defence and Security Studies Programme, timing was auspicious in that the Deputy Commander of the Canadian Army, Editor, Sitrep MGen Carl Turenne was our most recent dinner speaker, and we were given the Maj/Dr Daniel D. Eustace, CD (Ret’d) opportunity of excerpting his excellent presentation into our lead SITREP article. Deputy Director, Defence and Security Studies Programme Thank you to Robert Kennedy for undertaking this task. Mr. Eric S. Morse No Army-focused edition would be complete without a serious nod to the An Official Publication of the Reserve component. LCol John Selkirk (ret’d), who is both Executive Director Royal Canadian Military Institute of Reserves 2000 and a member of the Defence and Security Studies Program 426 University Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, M5G 1S9 Continued on page 11 Tel: 416-597-0286/1-800-585-1072 Fax: 416-597-6919 Website: www.rcmi.org Editorial E-Mail: [email protected] Copyright © 2019 RCMI ISSN 0316-5620 SITREP may be fully reproduced in whole or in part for academic research or institutional purposes, provided that the author’s and the institute’s copyright is acknowledged. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the Institute or its members.

2 SITREP Deputy Commander upbeat on the future of the Army Reserve by Bob Kennedy

ajor General Carl Turenne says the army’s plan to largest Reserve units in the GTA along with many of MGen the strengthen its Reserve, based in part on guar- Turenne’s friends and former colleagues, including his first anteeing summer employment to new recruits, is Commanding Officer. He was introduced by Honourary Col- Mworking. “We consider it a significant success,” he told an audi- onel Bryan Brulotte of the Governor General’s Foot Guards, ence at the RCMI in late January, and “we’re confident we’ll get who was already in his second year at College militaire royal the funding” to pursue the commitment into the summer of de Sant-Jean when a young Officer Cadet Turenne appeared 2019. He also wants us think in terms of an army that includes at the door. HCol Brulotte described in detail the Canadian Army of 1984—a very different army that many in the audience could remember well (if not fondly). MGen Turenne began with a brief scan of the strategic context. The government’s defence policy of June 2017— Strong, Secure, Engaged—sets the framework. Across the Ca- nadian Armed Forces, the new buzz-phrase is Force Posture & Readiness, the CDS’s approach to managing concurrent operations. Beyond this, “probably the biggest staff initiative across all of NDHQ” is the Force Mix & Structure Design project. This will grind on for at least another year and have, he said, “a signif-

—ERIC MORSE icant impact on the army.” Inside the Army, “Force 2021” captures full-time soldiers and part-time soldiers—instead of one that the staff’s continuing work on how to improve sustainability includes Regulars and Reserves. Now in his fifth tour on the and force-structure balance. Army staff, he repeatedly, and with great conviction, named Reviewing the Army Commander’s priorities, his Bureaucracy as the principal enemy of Progress. deputy zeroed in on what they call “the total fitness of the The Deputy Commander of the Canadian Army was force”, meaning the proportion of each unit that is able to the guest speaker for our annual Reserve Forces night on Jan- deploy, and the 15-25% of it that is not. “We need to reduce uary 24. Filling the Otter Room—named for the militiaman those numbers,” he said, by taking a preventive approach and who was the first president of the RCMI—were leaders of the by improving training. It’s a direct support to the commander’s necessary first priority: excellence in operations (which, he added later, “we’re already achieving.”) Capt Robert Kennedy, CD (ret’d) is a writer and editor. He is a member of There is also a new capital investment plan that lays the RCMI Defence and Security Studies Program Committee. out just under $20 billion in a twenty-year timeline. “That The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect money is there,” he declares, and ten years from now we’ll the views of the Institute or its members. have, at least at the tactical level, “the best equipped generation

The production of SITREP is made possible in part by the generosity of the Langley Bequest, which is made in honour of Major Arthur J Langley CD and Lt (N/S) Edith F Groundwater Langley

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 3 ever” of Canadian soldiers. It amounts to a near-complete mer Employment is also looking like a success. It responds to recapitalization of the land force. the need to get new recruits onto their first course promptly; It’s the state and the future of the Army Reserve, how- it’s focused on individual training; and it provides the kind ever, that MGen Turenne came to address. “Reserve issues are of predictability that goes a long way toward keeping them Army issues,” he declares, and he says that he’s never seen the in. Moreover, progressive training provides a continuing headquarters operating so well as “one integrated staff.” The challenge, and that’s also good for retention. The immediate approach is conceived as strengthening the Army by opera- result last summer was a 17% increase in total course days. tionalizing the Army Reserve. Of the dozen or so initiatives “The purpose of it is to focus on individual training that are focused on the Reserve, three matter the most. and to qualify as many people as we can, as fast as we can” The first is better recruiting. Everyone in the Canadian while so many are still in high school, college and university. Army, or anyone who has ever tried to join it, has a favourite His staff now is tweaking schedules for the summer of 2019 head-shaker to cite as an example of how bad the system can to align as many early level courses as they can. Extra money be. The Deputy Commander shared his: “One of my sons was sent to the Army last year to propel these summer-long joined the Reserves and it took him twelve months. Twelve programs forward and he’s confident enough will arrive for months!” (General Rick Hillier shares a similar experience in this summer to do more of the same. The whole program is A Soldier First: his own daughter-in-law giving him “an ear- achieving, he says, “significant success.” ful” after a futile attempt to enrol. His failure to substantially The Deputy Commander then turned to the matrix improve the system in a lasting way became the start line of of new Mission Tasks that have been given to units across the army’s new effort.) the Army. “It’s all about how the Canadian Armed Forces are The second aspect is that if you bring them in, you posturing for the future,” he says. The first tranche of tasks have to train them. Doing that well means full-time summer was assigned last April, and they include Light Urban Search employment for every raw recruit that wants it. Finally, units & Rescue (given to 7th Toronto Regiment, RCA), Direct Fire need to know what their mandate is, and that is the Mission Support (to the Toronto Scottish), Medium Mortars, Assault Tasks initiative. Pioneers, an Arctic Company Group, Public Duties (to the Affecting everything is the constant search for ways to Governor General’s Foot Guards, for obvious reasons) and reduce the friction of ordinary administration. MGen Turenne Influence Activities. His staff is spending “quite a lot of time” is thinking more in terms of full-time and part-time, instead on the effort to align the money, the equipment and the courses of Regular and Reserve, and he’d like to see a much smoother to stand up these tasks. Units without a specific Mission Task component-transfer process – especially from full time to should consider their mission to be their core activity (i.e. part time. “It needs to be a lot more fluid,” he says, reflecting infantry, service support, etc.). the experience of thousands. “That also speaks of the whole “There are a few things we need to do,” MGen Turenne integration of the team” at unit level. added, “to make this work.” He says the biggest concern of The assault on recruiting began in September 2016, when the CDS remains Operation Honour—the effort to stamp the Army Commander called MGen Turenne, then command- out sexual harassment—“because that’s what has the biggest ing 5 Division in Halifax, in frustration. “The bureaucracy’s impact on our credibility.” Units still need to return to their driving me crazy,” he declared. “We’re taking back recruiting!” foundational training every year. The Army needs to keep Someone was needed to lead a pilot project. MGen Turenne leveraging big-city units to increase its diversity. Digital means said “I’m in” and set up 36 Canadian Brigade Group for suc- of capturing everything from individual qualifications to cess. Warned by Defence staff that if they took it, they’d own it, Army-wide vehicle states remain imperfect. And at the Army the Army’s staff happily assumed responsibility for recruiting level and higher, bureaucracy is still “enemy No.1. We need to on April 1, 2017. Their target was an annual growth of 1,000 kill it.” part-time soldiers. Many of the questions following the general’s address The results for the current year, not yet complete, were involved the relationship between full-time and part-time put up on the screen. Since April 1, 2018, the effective strength soldiers. He acknowledged that not all Regular units include of the Army Reserve has grown by 819 soldiers. A streamlined their Reserve counterparts on exercises and pointed to his process aims to complete at least 20% of all enrolments in frustration, as the 5 Division commander, trying to co-or- only 30 days; it’s barely getting 12% of them in that quickly dinate actions during the March break – when the priorities (there’s still friction in medical file transfers, for example). of units were exactly opposite! He also wants to increase the Further improvement hinges on understanding the tactical full-time content of Reserve units without diminishing Reg- issues faced by unit-level recruiters. Total effective strength ular capacity. “We need to rebalance from within,” he said, in January 2019 is thought to be just under 19,000; the target “but we’re not there yet.” And it’s the Reserve units that are is 22,400. “There’s still quite a bit of work to do,” says MGen healthy and growing that will in turn get the most resources Turenne, but “Army Reserve recruiting is on the right track.” and attention. “The intent,” MGen Turenne concluded, “is to The first year of the commitment to Full Time Sum- increase the overall readiness of the Army.” 

4 SITREP Canadian Army Reserves: A New Era of Optimism by John Selkirk

en years ago the Canadian Forces Recruiting Group was Army was in the thick of given a target of 2,200 recruits the Afghanistan engage- which was much less than the Tment and Reservists made up 20% 3,000 needed to replace attrition. of the soldiers deployed there. Supporters of the Army In addition, thousands of other Reserve had been pointing out Reservists were on full-time duty these facts for years to successive preparing to deploy, just returned Army Commanders, multiple from Afghanistan or other mis- Ministers of National Defence, sions or filling essential vacancies the Senate and House standing in regular force establishments committees and the media. Final- caused by the needs of the mis- ly the message was heard at the sion. Army Reserve strength was highest level, namely by Prime higher than establishment and Minister Stephen Harper and his higher than it had been for years. new Minister of National Defence, Attrition was low, recruits were Jason Kenney. In the spring of readily attracted and prepared to 2015 the Government directed the wait out the crippling delays in Department of National Defence the length of time the Canadian and the Canadian Armed Forces Forces Recruiting Group took to to strengthen the whole Primary process applications, and funding Reserve (that is Navy, Army, Air, never seemed to be an issue. Medical and Legal Reserves) by However, when the Afghan- improving recruiting and reten- istan mission closed out Army tion, infrastructure, equipment, Reserve unit budgets were cut by and training, and to ensure stable 25%, with the entirely predictable and predictable funding. A Mem- result that unit strengths plum- orandum to Cabinet was devel- meted. In his Spring 2016 Report, —CPL LOGAN MURPHY oped in June 2015 which resulted the Auditor General stated that in detailed direction being issued Army Reserve total strength in The mission task of the Hastings and Prince Edward by the Chief of the Defence Staff. fiscal year (FY) 2014-2015 was Regiment is to provide a platoon of Assault Pioneers This direction was signed on 9 1,500 soldiers below the budgeted based in Peterborough. The unit trains both at the October 2015, just ten days before figure of 21,000, and of these, only Peterborough facility and at its Belleville HQ. the federal election. It was an Ini- 14,000 were trained and therefore tiating Directive entitled Reserve deployable. He reported that Strategy 2015: Strengthening the Cover Photo: Training for their unit mission task of direct between FY 2012-13 and 2014- fire support, soldiers of the Toronto Scottish Regiment Primary Reserve. 15 Army Reserve strength “had fire the .50 calibre heavy machine gun. This task echos In addition to recognizing been declining at a rate of about the role of the Regiment in World War 2 as a divisional the current shortfall of reservists five percent, or 1,000 soldiers per support battalion equipped with the Vickers it called for an increase of 1,500 year.” In the same time-frame he water-cooled machine gun. positions for the total Primary found that half of the soldiers Reserve, of which the Army Re- who left the Army Reserve did so serve’s share was 950. Significantly, before they had completed their first level of occupational the CDS said “the 28,500 average paid strength goal by 2019 training. The report stated that in FY 2014-15 the Canadian for the Primary Reserve will not be affected by any changes to government”. LCol John Selkirk, CD, (ret’d) is the Executive Director of Reserves 2000 and With this very public backing by the Prime Minister, a member of the RCMI Defence and Security Studies Program Committee. was the Minister, and the Chief of the Defence Staff, supporters a regular officer of the Canadian Army for 20 years, and 12 years a reservist including CO of a unit and 9 years an honorary officer. of the Army Reserve were well pleased: then the Government The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect changed. the views of the Institute or its members.

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 5 Although statements of intent to increase the Reserves continued as it always will, but hopefully at a lower annual had been issued by both Liberal and Conservative govern- rate as policy changes designed to address it gain traction. ments in the past those promises never came to pass. The Next year there should be a sound increase in trained effective excuses as to why nothing happened usually centered on a strength given that this summer’s intake will have been able lack of funds. Many supporters expected more of the same, to qualify by the end of the summer. but this time was to be different. Thus, recruiting success has been the key driver of the in- The impact of the current Minister of National Defence, crease in the strength reported above. A significant shortening Harjit Sajjan, is unknown, but the fact that he was himself an of time between attraction and enrollment continues to prove Army Reservist and had commanded a unit is undeniable. to be difficult to fully achieve, however, this is for reasons be- One of the first initiatives of the new Liberal Government yond local control, such as centralized medical approval. The was to embark upon a defence policy review which solicited goal is to achieve 20% of enrollments in under 30 days, 60% input from a broad spectrum of Canadians. Supporters of between 30 and 60 days and 20% over 60 days. So far, this FY the Army Reserve were front and centre in providing their those percentages are 13%, 19% and 68% respectively, which views, and when the review was published as Government represents only a slight improvement over the previous FY. policy—entitled Strong, Secure, Engaged—unlike every de- The other great success in this recovery story is Full Time fence policy statement since the end of World War Two, it Summer Employment, but its effect on attrition is too soon contained a significant section devoted to the Reserves. The to measure. This past summer, 8,230 soldiers were eligible to most important new policies impacting the Army Reserve participate and fully 7,247, or 88%, did so. The added value of called for the increase in strength already ordered by the guaranteed summer training is that leadership training will be previous Government; direction to fix reserve recruiting; conducted in sufficient volume to begin to offset the critical diminish attrition; and, for part-time reservists, provide new deficiency of key unit leaders. The Army is committed to in- capabilities for full-time if required, and remain committed creasing course days in upcoming years by harmonizing the to stable funding. national training calendar to optimize individual training for Armed with a supportive Government policy the then Reservists, so we should see real progress in the years ahead Commander of the Canadian Army, LGen Paul Wynnyk, de- on this most serious issue. veloped bold but workable plans to counteract the two greatest What of the future? The pressing need in the immediate impediments to growth, namely the dysfunctional recruiting future is to rebuild unit leadership. Here, as mentioned above, system and crippling attrition. Beginning in April 2017, the the full-time summer training opportunity guaranteed by much disliked Strategic Intake Plan, which for years had Strong, Secure, Engaged, provides the mechanism to qualify been setting recruit quotas below historic attrition levels, was Non-Commissioned Members up to the rank of Sergeant scrapped and units were ordered to recruit as many soldiers as within their first four years of service. Similarly, Officers may they could. Authority to enroll recruits was returned to units. be qualified in the same period of time to the rank of Cap- To reduce attrition a commitment was made to guarantee full tain. Those willing and capable of taking the training could summer employment to any soldier who desired it in their first be leaving school and starting a civilian career without the four years of service. Additional measures, such as direction to need for further military training for several years. Hopefully, conduct as much training as possible in unit locations (which unencumbered by the need for more leadership training at should also reduce attrition), and the assignment of mission this critical juncture, they will be better able to balance their tasks to every unit, accompanied by the necessary equipment work and reserve careers, and provide their units with the and instructors, spoke to creating new capabilities. leadership that is now in such critical supply. Reserves 2000 was recently briefed by the current Com- Mission tasks to create new capabilities that are being mander Canadian Army, LGen Jean-Marc Lanthier and his assigned to units are so far proving to be strong motivators for staff. It is clear that progress is being made on many fronts. the soldiers involved. Just as importantly the capabilities they Supporters of the Army Reserve know that the most provide, such as heavy machine gun, mortars and pioneers - to important issue for any unit is unit strength. Individual unit list the infantry tasks—are, in most cases, not found elsewhere strength is, of course, a factor of total strength of the Army in the Army, but one day may be deployed as formed sub- Reserve, and in the 12 months from Nov 2017 to Oct 2018 units. While individual Reserve soldiers will still be required total Army Reserve strength rose by 1,681 soldiers to 20,561. by regular units in order to sustain deployments, taskings Effective strength (those parading at least once per month) to provide formed sub-units will go a long way to moving also rose, but by a lesser degree, while trained effective strength the Army Reserve towards a mobilization framework model barely increased at all. The latter is due to the fact that most which has served Canada so well in the past. of this year’s new intake of recruits could not complete De- Supporters of a strong Army Reserve are heartened by velopment Period 1 in the time available from enrollment to these developments. There is a real sense of having turned a date, while in the same period, attrition of trained soldiers corner and entering a new era of optimism. 

6 SITREP Instant impact: The Integrated Soldier System by Chris Thatcher he road erupted in a hail of gunfire as the soldiers of getting good with it, they are starting to touch the edges of Oscar company, 3rd Battalion, The Royal Canadian its capability,” Lacey acknowledged. “It’s one of those things Regiment (3 RCR), emerged in a pincer movement where you don’t really know how it is going to work until you Tfrom the treeline and down the gravel road onto the enemy’s start integrating it.” position on the riverbank. The fighting was intense, but it was Without reservation, the soldiers of Oscar company over in minutes, and the company quickly reassembled for an had high praise for what the ISS-S enabled them to do, but attack on a target further up the road. the weight of the batteries and connectivity issues, as well as For Captain Paul Mayne of Oscar company, the delib- irritants like map icons and earbuds were causing periodic erate attack was an assessment of his offensive planning and frustration. execution skills and his ability to use his engineers, forward “The kit so far is changing our tactics,” said Sergeant observers, artillery and other enablers as part of the Infantry David Kumar, a section commander. “For commanders it Dismounted Company Commander’s Course (IDCCC), an is giving us an easier time with battlefield geometry, which annual exercise on the career path for officers, primarily Re- minimizes blue on blue [mistakes]. As a commander, I want servists, training to become company commanders. to know at all times where my troops are and where other For most of the soldiers under his command, however, friendly call signs are. With blue force tracking, instead of the exercise in the woods and over the back roads of CFB going on the radio and causing so much traffic in the air, right Petawawa was an opportunity to evaluate the capabilities of away we can open up our TUI (tactical user interface) and a new integrated soldier system suite (ISS-S), most had only track where everybody is. It allows us to move through any received three weeks before. type of terrain with max effective cover.” ISS-S, a project more than a decade in the making, will While the bulky battery was noticeable, “we adapt to eventually network individual soldiers in a way that could many things pretty quickly,” he said. “We’re a little bit heavier, significantly change how a company or platoon conducts oper- but it’s worth it.” ations. The Rheinmetall Canada system, known as Argus and Corporal Kevin Leindekar, a signaller, highlighted the introduced to 3 RCR in late July, is the first of three cycles, and ability to easily delineate arcs of fire across the company, and provides enhanced digital communication at the platoon level link their original radio with the ISS-S radio system, “so we’re with a tactical smartphone-like computer system, radio, and not (using) two sets of headsets.” push-to-talk headphone, all networked across the formation. Better situational awareness, faster dissemination of Already, after just a few weeks, it is starting to affect information, and a menu of navigation and reporting options tactics. were starting to open up new possibilities, he said. “I’m still “A picture is worth a thousand words. Instead of guys figuring it out. There are so many capabilities.” listening to the radio and plotting on the map and getting He also liked the modular rig holding the system and its their grids wrong or right, now they can just look,” said connecting hub, noting that it allowed users to fit the heavier Major Jayson Geroux, course officer for IDCCC, a program battery more ergonomically. “If you look around, you’re going run by the Tactics School at the Combat Training Centre in to see a whole bunch of different set ups. They are finding Gagetown. “Communication is so much better when you can what works best for them, as opposed to the regular tac vest do it visually.” which was set.” Soldiers were able to use the system in lower level section For Oscar company commander, Major Shane Gapp, training, but the IDCCC course marked its first use in a com- the potential of the system is huge, but there are bugs to be pany-level exercise, said Major Ben Lacey, the commanding worked out before it is truly transformational. “The speed at officer of 3 RCR’s November Company. The ISS-S survived the which we can process data now is [impressive]. We can stay August humidity of eastern Ontario and a helo-casting jump more dispersed because of the blue positional awareness and into the Ottawa River, but a dismounted company operation the fact that we can share a common operating picture,” he “is a good test because it is about as hard as you can get in said. “We’ve started to change SOPs (standard operating pro- terms of dragging it through the woods.” cedures) within the company to rely on this system.” At the end of the two-week course, though, the system’s Master Warrant Officer Roger Shaver said the ISS-S adds deficiencies were starting to emerge. “Now that they are a lot to the platoon, and “they are starting to adapt (SOPs) to utilize the system.” But he cautioned that’s not really its intended use. “We don’t need to operate at platoon level, we Chris Thatcher is a member of the Canadian Army’s Public Affairs Branch. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect need to operate at the company and battalion level when we’re the views of the Institute or its members. talking blue force tracking, because really they are the ones

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 7 that need to know.” while adapting to barriers such as a minefield; searching an On the day, the company was connected across four operational area for an evading enemy or downed aircrew; networks, one for each platoon of 30 soldiers and one for the mission planning and giving orders, and executing a mission company, platoon and section commanders. Streaming data from multiple insertion points. If early observations are any and communicating between, and even within, networks was indication, the ISS-S offers an extraordinary improvement. difficult at times for many users. “Anything the sections did in ISS-S was a fraction of the “Right now, we have four missions programmed. In my time it took without ISS-S,” she said. system I can track three of the callsigns … the 3rd platoon I With the baseline kit of a map, compass, personal role can’t track, it’s too many people,” said Gapp. “I don’t know if radio, and DAGR for the section commander, soldiers had a far that’s a programming thing. Also, sometimes we’ll be sitting more difficult time with each task, often failing to complete it [a few feet] away from each other, we’ll hit send, and it is all in the allotted time. Wayfinding, for example, was conducted red x’s. Two minutes later, we’ll move and it will all be green in dense brush lacking obvious landmarks to aid in navigation. checkmarks.” “In the non-ISS condition, the task was slowed by the need “It needs to be able to take in a lot more information, for frequent compass checks, inaccurate pace counting, and especially when it is trying to stream data from one system to insufficient consultation of the DAGR (to know their precise all the other systems all at once,” added Shaver. location) perhaps due to overconfidence in their own abilities,” “I think we are overwhelming the system,” Gapp ac- Bossi said. In one instance, a soldier failed to box a [virtual] knowledged. “As we have been going through the day, we are minefield and ended up walking through it twice. sending so many things, trying to put so much into the system, “With ISS-S, they found the system to be fast, accurate, that it could become overloaded.” reliable and easily adaptable to mission change,” she explained. He said the company had yet to test “going silent” and “The mission was successfully completed in every case in relying on digital reports and returns, but he noted that the under an hour.” usual process of providing and verifying a contact report In the search for enemy or downed aircrew, ISS allowed could take minutes, while the ISS-S allows grid location to the team to disperse and operate more effectively, the leader be shared in seconds. redrawing and sending course changes as the target moved, But he also wondered about the electronic signature 100 to affect a quick capture. Without the ISS-S, the search team networked soldiers would create. “What kind of footprint are never came close in the dense brush. we going to make as we move about the battlespace? Even For mission planning and giving orders, Bossi noted the though that bubble is small, it’s still a bubble.” baseline approach of receiving, writing down and confirming Both Gapp and Shaver noted issues with the battery orders is time consuming, and at times resulted in plotting technology; the fact that connectors insert straight in, rather errors because of incorrect grid location information, which than twist, and can also slip out; and the use of improper in turn led to searches in the wrong area during mission ex- military icons on maps. But they said tactically, it worked well. ecution. With ISS-S, commanders were able to insert orders into a template, complete with scratch drawings and map Testing, Testing overlays, and teams were then able to find and engage the In addition to anecdotal feedback, the Army is also enemy within minutes. gathering empirical evidence that the ISS-S will improve “When you have a digital map that has accurate blue soldier performance. As part of the Soldier Science and Tech- force tracking and you can enter and distribute to the team an nology Program, Defence Research and Development Canada enemy location, you can move fast and accurately, ensuring (DRDC) is conducting the Future Soldier Technologies Trial mission success every time,” she observed. 2018 with 3 RCR. The findings are only preliminary and were limited to The trial involves three studies assessing soldier move- small team tasks, not company operations. And study partici- ments under load, and the benefits of varying body armour pants and senior officers visiting the trial also raised questions coverage and load carriage designs; the value of various small about the electromagnetic signature the system will create. arms full and partial fire control systems on unknown distance The next steps in the trial will focus on identifying changes shooting and moving target engagements, and individual and that could improve the system, and participating in capturing small team performance comparing the ISS-S to the baseline lessons learned in upcoming larger live fire exercises that kit soldiers had in Afghanistan. could have bearing on the tactics, techniques and procedures “[This is] our first opportunity to objectively assess the for the ISS-S. impact of ISS-S on soldier and team effectiveness,” said Linda Subsequent Cycles Bossi, a defence scientist with DRDC in Toronto leading the trials. Nobody is paying more attention to the feedback than For the ISS-S comparison, individual and small teams Major Christopher Guilbaud-McHarg. A hard-charging of soldiers were tasked with planning and executing a route infantry officer with the Royal 22e Regiment (R22eR), who

8 SITREP became the new ISS-S project director this summer, he’s de- are placed,” he said, adding that the system had to meet very termined to see cycles two and three deliver a final product “stringent” tests before it could be fielded. that is world class. Rheinmetall was awarded the ISS-S contract in 2015, “Do we have the A solution? I don’t think so. Are we valued at over $40 million with follow-on in-service support, working toward the A solution? You’ve got my word on it,” he to deliver around 4,000 Argus systems, which comprise a said. “I’ll make certain that the infanteers will get, at the end Harris radio, Saab tactical display computer and hub, Invisio of the day, a tool that enhances their situational awareness push-to-talk headphone, battery pack and network integra- and combat effectiveness.” tion. Riquier said about 1,500 systems had been delivered as Guilbaud-McHarg acknowledged the Argus system cur- of October and almost 3,000 would be fielded by mid 2019. rently being introduced to the 3 RCR – and in late November Discussions were ongoing about capabilities for the to 2 Battalion, R22eR – is the “initial version” for soldiers to next cycle, but he offered two possibilities for consideration: “sink their teeth into.” After gathering user feedback, he met control and access to the video feed of a UAV, and integra- with the prime contractor, Rheinmetall Canada, and said the tion of night vision systems. “We’ll see how it fits into their statement of requirements (SOR) for the second cycle is being roadmap,” he said. fine-tuned, even as he prepares to draft the SOR for the third Among the many considerations for Guilbaud-McHarg cycle in June 2019. will be interoperability, not only with the LCSS modernization The aim of Cycle 2 will be a software upgrade of the project, but also with training systems such as the weapon current system and the addition of more sensors, including effects simulation (WES) upgrade, the newly acquired dig- possibly a laser range finder, a camera, a DAGR and a more itally-aided close air support system (DACAS) for forward advanced radio. The project will also bridge the gap with the observers and air controllers, and the vastly more capable LAV Army’s Land Command Support System (LCSS), its battle 6.0 with which the infantry will interact. And, of course, the management network – a challenge that must resolve data battery, which was based on an SOR written in 2011. “Tech- sharing across secure and unsecure networks. nology has changed,” he said. “We’re listening to [National Defence] and supporting Both Guilbaud-McHarg and Riquier noted that while them to define the next step in regards to the evolution of the Argus is fairly basic in Cycle 1, it has allowed the Army the equipment,” said Daniel Riquier, Rheinmetall’s project to introduce a capability that appears to be a more effective manager. system than those currently fielded by allies. “I don’t know if While the requirements for the next two cycles will come we are the arrowhead, but we certainly have one of the best from the Army, he said the company had been gathering feed- soldier systems out there,” said Guilbaud-McHarg. back from its own instructors, who have been providing the And he’s probably the right person to see it through. In initial train-the-trainer program. “Receptivity is very high,” 2015, he was awarded for his leadership as director of Exer- he said, but it would take time to introduce and resolve issues cise Frontier Sentinel, the largest joint/combined interagency with a capability the Army has never had before. counterterrorism exercise that the Royal Canadian Mounted “Argus was designed to be very … easy to use. It doesn’t Police has ever executed, involving over 10 government de- require a long training period. The handheld device is not a partments and military agencies from the U.S. and Canada. mobile phone, but it is very similar in the way it looks, the “They give me the projects that I can put some horsepower graphics, how the widgets are displayed, where the buttons into,” he joked. 

Guidelines for Contributors to SITREP SITREP provides the opportunity for our readership and members and young scholars, and for professionals and policy specialists of the academic, professional and policy communities, to comment who seek the opportunity for intellectual outreach within the on issues of contemporary defence and security. It is mailed to our broad community of defence and international security studies. 1700 members and stakeholders and receives further distribution Articles average from 850 (a one-pager) to 3000 words in length. via our website. From the feedback we receive world-wide, we Footnotes are kept to a minimum or eliminated entirely. (Please are heartened to know how widely read it is, especially in the ac- note: Footnote references/citations and bibliographies, where ademic community and sister institutes. We especially encourage they exist in manuscripts chosen may be subject to editing and young, graduate-level writers to contribute. simplification for publication.) Submissions should be in Word Key considerations in the selection of authors will include (DOC or DOCX) format. Photographs, illustrations, charts, and other the ability to write short, policy-relevant articles on military and graphic material must be provided by the author, either in JPG strategic issues; experience and credentials in the relevant or PDF format, separate from (i.e., not embedded in) the article. field along with the author’s institutional affiliations; and most To contact SITREP please write to our Director, Security importantly, willingness to contribute to the ongoing debate in and Defence Studies / SITREP Editor, Maj Dan Eustace, at the field. Publication is ideal for both established academics [email protected]. 

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 9 Operational Influencers by Grant Cree

nfluence activities (IA) operations were one of the main prepares soldiers for national or expeditionary deployments. focal points at Exercise Maple Resolve 2018 (Ex MR 18), MR 18 involved more than 6,000 military personnel from and the Canadian Army intends to substantially increase Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia IIA personnel by the end of 2019 to meet escalating demand. and France at Canadian Forces Base/Area Support Unit A combination of psychological operations (PSYOPS) Wainwright in May. and civil-military cooperation (CIMIC), an IA team supports Among its many objectives, the exercise enables Re- or ‘enables’ the success of a military mission through the servists to work with their Regular Force counterparts. Inte- fostering of goodwill and cooperation with local populations gration of Regular and Reserve is an important component by communicating across cultures and providing assistance of Strengthening the Army Reserve (StAR), an initiative where needed during the mission. launched in 2016 to make the Reserve more operationally ef- “We’re in high demand, everybody wants IA now,” said fective through better recruitment, sustained growth, mission Captain Pascal Dussault, the information operations observ- specific tasks, training, education, new and expanded equip- er-controller-trainer team lead for MR 18, who oversaw a joint ment, full-time summer employment, and greater Regular Force support. IA is one area of StAR slated for immediate growth to fill a variety of positions. “We’ve got our own specialized equipment and training to produce leaflets, magazines, video and radio segments that can be streamed online,” said Dussault, a veteran of numerous operations with NATO and the UN who serves with the Influence Activities Task Force (IATF). “The IATF has 31 members who work full- time,” he said. “I’m one of the rare Regular Force guys who is full-time IA.” What role does an IA team perform on exercises like Ex MR 18 Range Day in Afghanistan, courtesy of Major Daniel Eustace (ret’d.)—the one with the yellow scarf. or missions overseas? United States-Canadian IA team. “This is really our bread and PSYOPS officers do mission planning and approve products butter, because IA covers everything from CIMIC to media as well as lead teams; tactical operators support the mission operations, PSYOPS, projects, production of information by engaging with target audiences, friendly or adversary, and materials and social media. Communication is key.” production teams create culturally appropriate key messages Maple Resolve is the culminating exercise on the Army’s to audiences, again friendly or adversary. CIMIC teams, on the Road to High Readiness, the flagship training regime that other hand, are comprised of members with specialized skills involving liaison, projects, media operations, civil engagement Capt Grant Cree was part of Exercise Maple Resolve 2018 public affairs. and social media. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect “We’re still doing the old-school leaflet drops, plus dis- the views of the Institute or its members. tributing pamphlets and posters,” explained Dussault. “But

10 SITREP we’re gearing more towards the new technologies because any- The IATF has openings for officers and non-commis- where in the world I’ve served, even in the poorest countries, sioned members. Reservists from any element or trade can they all have cell phones. They even do their banking on cell apply. phones. “On Ex MR18, we worked very closely with public “There are two ways to join the IATF community,” said affairs, intelligence, military police and the padres. This was Dussault. “First, you can apply directly to the IATF in Kings- the first year that we were under the Information Operations ton, and that’s a direct Reserve Employment Opportunity umbrella, and Ex MR 18 was the first time we worked closely where you’d compete with others in order to join. Second, together as a group.” if a Reservist doesn’t want to work with us full-time at the During the exercise, the IATF members of the 2nd Ca- national level, each Division has an IA company and you can nadian Division Information Activities Company and the U.S. apply to them.”  PSYOPS Group conducted a flurry of activities. The CIMIC team operated at two mock villages to build trust with the “local population,” who were portrayed by actors. PSYOPS members conducted an information campaign by distributing messages on social media and on paper. Those Editor’s Desk—continued from page 2 messages were designed to reassure villagers that the military presence was intended to be temporary assistance to help Committee, has provided a detailed analysis of the challenges secure their boundaries. faced by the Army Reserve in recent times and, thankfully, “For areas where there will be combat, we will push concludes with a hopeful and positive future forecast. Thank messages to villages with campaigns like ‘Stay Home, Stay you, John. Safe’ and ‘Report Suspicious Activities’ as well as a tip line In addition, the edition includes two articles which focus campaign,” explained Dussault. on interesting developments in current and future land-based His team also worked with the Royal Canadian Air capabilities – the new Integrated Soldier System, and Influ- Force (RCAF) for a mass leaflet drop over a mock village. ence Activities (IA). The latter capability, which incorporates “We use rice paper that melts within 10 seconds of coming Psychological Operations and Civil-Military Cooperation into contact with water. The ink is made from vegetables, and (amongst other activities) has developed considerably since I yes, it is edible.” was the IA CO for 4 Canadian Division in an earlier life, and I would have surely benefited from the technology manifested Task Force Evolution in the Integrated Soldier System, instead of stumbling about The IATF continues to grow and evolve into a separate the woods. organization as it supports missions in Canada and overseas. The final article will, no doubt, come as a surprise to “We are now attached under the Canadian Combat Support many, as it discusses the use of androids in land combat. While Brigade, which is our higher headquarters and which is under in years past this potential development might have been the 5th Canadian Division,” said Dussault. dismissed as pure science fiction, the author builds his case The newly-formed Canadian Combat Support Brigade on the basis of technologies and trends which are already in (CCSB) has been under the command of 5th Canadian Divi- use in other applications. While the use of androids in combat sion (5 Cdn Div) since October 2017. The unit was recognized may represent an extreme vision for future robotics, there is as the Army’s newest brigade during a ceremony on April 5, no doubt that artificial intelligence is increasingly utilized in 2018 at 5th Canadian Division Support Base Gagetown, N.B. military applications, and this is already creating serious legal, Lieutenant-Colonel Eleanor Taylor, 5 Cdn Div’s senior ethical and operational challenges. Enjoy! planning officer, described the CCSB as “the champion of On a final note, I would ask you to mark your diaries for Canadian Army enablers.” The CCSB is comprised of five the 24th of April. This is the date of our annual Defence and units that specialize in functions ranging from intelligence Security Studies conference and, this year, we will be focusing and influence activities to electronic warfare, artillery and on the Arctic. We are lining up a series of world-class Arctic field engineers. Each unit is staffed mostly with Reservists authorities, and the subject will be examined in a holistic who will provide their mission-specific support on overseas fashion, while examining the importance of the Arctic to training exercises and deployed operations. Canadian sovereignty, and the fact that the region is under The IATF is mandated to support the first rotation on climactic pressure, as well being the new target for challengers overseas missions, the teams that construct the camps and set such as Russia and China. I look forward to seeing you there.  up facilities for new operations. Consequently, IA members can expect to deploy on a variety of missions around the globe. “I’m going to be honest, it’s very demanding. Our op tempo is very busy,” said Dussault. “For a small unit, we do a Maj Daniel D. Eustace, CD, PhD (Ret’d) lot and our skills are in high demand right now.” Director, Defence and Security Studies Programme

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 11 Android vs Human Soldier: What Near-Future Warfare Will Look Like by Konrad Mech

evelopments in robotics are advancing at an incred- down accurate, effective, and economical fire to devastating ible pace. Androids are a subset of robots—androids effect. Their fire and movement is incredibly well coordinated; are robots with human form, as distinguished from mutual supporting fire is continuous. Swarms of small airborne Dother robots like industrial assembly, welding and painting drones flit over the defensive positions, delivering direct hits robots. The technology to build, program and deploy fully into trench openings with improved conventional munitions. capable android combat units is very close. Android combat The defenders realize the defense is hopeless and surrender. units may already be operational and awaiting the right time Attackers secure each trench. They shoot the seriously wounded. for deployment, given that governments have frequently “held The survivors are rounded up and realize the attackers are not back” the deployment of new military technologies until a humans but android fighters. The androids give commands in critical mission requires it. For example, the F117 Night- perfect French. When their orders aren’t understood, they use hawk Stealth Fighter was operational for seven years before German and then English. A couple of defenders attempt to resist deployment during the US invasion of Panama in 1989, and and are immediately shot after which all resistance crumbles. the MH 60 Blackhawk stealth helicopters only made their first An android fighter approaches the Battalion Commander –who appearance during the raid on Osama Bin Laden’s compound has not been identified - and asks in perfect French: “Es-tu le inside Pakistan. colonel Susan Jones?” “Oui”, she responds, after which she is The hypothesis of this article is that past asymmetries of summarily shot. The remainder of the survivors are instructed behavior, combined with current violations of international to kneel back-to-back in circles of 5. Their wrists and ankles law by bad actors, creates a very dangerous environment are secured with zap straps, and each circle of 5 are strapped should bad actors choose to program android fighters to together at wrists and ankles so that they are immobile. Then perform illegal acts. On the contrary, if we in the West were the attacking force simply leaves the dead where they fell and to deploy androids, we would expect them to be programmed the immobile survivors with no food or water, to advance and to comply with international law: we can expect no such com- prepare for the next attack. pliance by all state actors. Arguably, once human units suffer During later debriefs, survivors recall seeing numbers of an attack by androids the default the default response may be aerial drones flying from enemy lines to fallen enemy troops, to deploy counter-android forces very quickly. and after a few minutes the android fighter getting up and advancing to join the main force. Analysts determine that the An Extreme Scenario aerial drones delivered replacement parts to repair field dam- A NATO infantry company has stood to in a prepared age and new power packs to replace run down batteries. This defensive position. Observation Posts have reported armoured experience is not isolated, but is repeated all along the front in personnel carriers preparing to move from behind enemy po- the ensuing days. sitions. The Battalion Commander is in the company CP on a visit to the front. The company is attacked by an artillery This essay examines what android vs. human combat barrage as the APCs start to move. A few APCs are hit in the may look like. I have intentionally written the extreme scenar- kill zone but the majority makes it through. The enemy troops io to include blatantly illegal actions. This essay forces us to dismount. The defending company begins to take fire from the consider how bad actors may utilize android combat units in attacking troops—but something is different. There is no sound of violation of international law. I believe that, using game theory, human voices yelling commands, no whistle signals, and despite military doctrine will rapidly default to android vs. android the enemy taking casualties, no cries of pain. Attackers do not forces. My hope is that this essay will spur the development stop to provide assistance to their wounded. The attackers lay of public policy in anticipation of this technology, which has every indication of becoming the next arms race. I also sus- Konrad Mech, CD, P.Eng., PMP, BEng, BA, MBA is a Registered Professional pect that this technology has a high probability of ending in Engineer in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia and a Project stalemate–the 21st century’s version of WWI trench warfare. Management Professional certified by the Project Management Institute. He graduated with a degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Royal Android Technology Military College of Canada in 1982 and attained the rank of Major in the Royal Canadian Artillery Active Reserves. He currently serves as Director, To appreciate what a production-quantity android sol- Subsea Channel Management with Kongsberg Maritime AS, a world leader dier may look like, and what benefits these convey, I selected in acoustic technology for numerous subsea applications. Atlas, an android manufactured under contract for DARPA, The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute or its members. the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agen-

12 SITREP cy, by Boston Dynamics. Atlas has LiDAR (light detection and ranging) and Boston Dynamics’ website states: “Atlas is the latest in stereo vision, as well as gyro stabilization. It would be simple a line of advanced robots [from Boston Dynamics]. Atlas’ to add thermal sensors, high definition IP cameras with ex- control system coordinates motions of the arms, torso and treme zoom, Infrared/Ultraviolet cameras, acutely sensitive legs to achieve whole-body mobile manipulation, greatly microphones to hear sound with active acoustic damping for loud noises (e.g. Bose or Senneheiser headphones), gas sniffers (e.g. Draeger or MSA Mine Safety Appli- ances) and other specialized sensors per mission requirements. These are all commercially available. A key design deci- sion is the sensor suite specification based on anticipated tactical sce- narios. Once an android is equipped with a sensor suite, the programmers can fuse the multiple sensor inputs to direct a tactical output action. For example, sensor fusion combines “rising temperature + infra-red signature + smoke particulate + CO gas + CO2 gas” sensor in- —BOSTON DYNAMICS puts; sensor input analysis Boston Dynamics’ Atlas Android commissioned by DARPA = “fire”; output action = “monitor and relocate if expanding its reach and workspace. Atlas’ ability to balance required based on fire proximity, fire source, heat intensity and while performing tasks allows it to work in a large volume potential to damage unit, and tactical advantage to relocation. while occupying only a small footprint. The android’s software can be programmed to perform The Atlas hardware takes advantage of 3D printing to functions such as language detection and interpretation (like save weight and space, resulting in a remarkably compact Siri or Alexa), facial recognition (already used at many border robot with high strength-to-weight ratio and a dramatical- control points), solid object interpretation (LiDAR target im- ly large workspace. Stereo vision, range sensing and other aging through obscuring foliage), with the ultimate outcome sensors give Atlas the ability to manipulate objects in its being battlefield assessment and determination of appropriate environment and to travel on rough terrain. Atlas keeps its actions based on accurate threat assessment. A recent news balance when jostled or pushed and can get up if it tips over.” story said that a man wanted for a criminal charge in Shanghai Atlas does back flips, is able to lift objects, jump over was identified and arrested in a crowd of 70,000 people at a gaps and jump from low to high platforms, walk on uneven, rock concert by facial recognition cameras in the venue. It is snowy terrain, and get up when pushed on its face. Mobility conceivable to imagine an android army programmed with is advancing. This android could be armed with an assault your personal facial feature. rifle, RPG, or other infantry weapon today. If you haven’t seen Android Capabilities Atlas in action, watch two YouTube videos at: https://youtu.be/ fRj34o4hN4I and https://youtu.be/rVlhMGQgDkY . A proper analysis needs to look not only at what androids In addition to Atlas, Boston Dynamics has a portfolio require to function, but what androids do not need to function. of robots including 4-legged, wheeled, legged and wheeled, tracked, and sprung form factors. The latter robot can ma- • No need to sleep. Result: 24/7 operation. noeuver itself into position and launch itself up to 10 meters • No requirement for food or water. Result: lighter combat in the air on top of new terrain or structure. loads; simpler supply chain logistics.

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 13 • No need to defecate or urinate. Result: less vulnerability • Androids could “listen” to human conversations using mi- during these moments. crophones, use translation software for foreign languages, • No need to wash or shave. Result: higher combat uptime; interpret, and take appropriate action. Example: Android lighter combat loads, and fewer supply chain logistics. microphone hears “I surrender!” Android responds “Drop • No requirement for oxygen for respiration. Result: androids your weapon”. Real-world examples are Dragon Dictation operate in environments unsuitable for humans. Can Software, Siri and Alexa. operate in zero- or low-oxygen locations (e.g. confined • Appearance and sounds could be designed to intimidate space tanks). humans, destroying will to fight. • Not susceptible to nuclear fall-out, biological or chemical • Androids could learn voices and mimic humans, sowing weapons. Could be a delivery system of same. confusion and misinformation. • Ability to operate in a degraded condition. If rendered • Androids are not subject to fear. They have the ability to immobile, could still operate as a fire point, or a com- continue the mission despite chaos in battle. They obey munication node relaying battlefield intelligence for programming not emotions. They are not subject to situational awareness. degradation of reasoning processes due to battle stress, • No pain when damaged. fatigue, lack of food and water, or psychic trauma. • Not subject to infection, therefore no need for medication or • Androids would have distributed network communications antibiotics. Not subject to contagion arising from living in and control. Each unit would be a node in the neural close quarters in field conditions or from lack of hygiene. network. A squad, platoon, company or battalion of Result: no need for medicine, for medical field hospitals, androids could operate as one massive interconnected no urgency of treatment. neural entity. Result: Each android would have complete • Humans bleed out—androids don’t. If an android is battlefield situational awareness instantly throughout the damaged, its change in state is digital. Post-engagement network. This allows swarm deployment. A real world repairs can be prioritized by instantaneous updating the example is the use of HUGIN AUVs by Ocean Infinity status of the entire combat force. This allows repair triage in their search for MH370 in the South Indian Ocean—8 to optimize maximum unit functionality in the shortest underwater robots operating in unison at 6,000m below time possible with the fewest resources possible. Note sea level, controlled by a mother ship on surface. that this is a key principle of Agile Project Management • Robots are already capable of adaptive learning. Result: which is used in complex dynamic environments with Rapid assessment of outcomes and failures, impediments rapid situational evolution. and obstacles, results in design of experiments for new • Androids could have the ability to self-repair, using tools approaches and work-arounds. Then on validation, the either carried or delivered. It could, for example, self-assess new, revised program is downloaded instantaneously to and place an order for replacement parts. It still lays down all nodes on the network. fire and communicates field intelligence while waiting. 3D • Androids can be upgraded remotely, for instance the up- printing allows expedient field production and delivery loading and downloading of battlefield data (map programs of replacement parts by aerial drone to fill the order. The with revised objectives/targets). Example: Tesla Model S, android replaces its own parts (just as a computer numer- Model X updates are downloaded from Tesla’s service ically controlled machine swaps tools during machining centres directly to cars in the field. processes) and reports higher ready state. Android Requirements and Drawbacks • Interchangeable parts would allow multiple damaged androids to self-assess, pool resources, and cannibalize parts Androids aren’t perfect. An android’s biggest vulnera- to rebuild a full capability android, while the remainder bility is electrical power. They need lots of it for sensors and await replacement parts or are scrapped. servo motors, therefore, they need efficient batteries and Result: Drawing on Lean Manufacturing and Agile project rapid recharging capability. If operating in cold environments, management techniques, the android neural network battery drain results in shorter up-time. Other drawbacks: aims to deliver the most scope—the highest number of fully functioning androids, and if not possible the most • Overwhelmed supply chain—since resupply and repair effective capability, in the shortest time possible with the relies on delivery of manufactured parts, and since man- locally available resources. ufacturing processes can and do have bottlenecks, the • Every android is a combat repair technician. They have supply chain may fail to resupply replacement parts in no emotional response to battle damage to others. They keeping with battle losses. could be programmed with all technical specifications • Operation in particular environments could contaminate or and replacement work flows. Result: ability to return a foul moving parts or sensors (sticks or mud in joints; dirty unit to combat strength in minimal time. grime on optic sensors). Note that protective covers (mim- icking skin) are fitted on some Boston Dynamics robots.

14 SITREP • Noisy operation—electric servos aren’t stealthy enough Androids have no emotions. They feel no pain. They have for special ops. But once the shooting starts, noise is not no fear. If an android in their unit is taken out, they adjust a factor. the mission plan based on their programming. There is • Since they are program-driven and not risk averse, androids no chance of defeating an android foe by attacking their could self-expose to danger in new, unforeseen and therefore morale or esprit de corps. This simply has no effect. The un-programmed situation. The rate of learning may not loss of morale would be on the human force when they keep up with the rate of loss. realize this. On the flip side, consider defending against • They are vulnerable to electromagnetic pulse (EMP).How - an android attack where ‘they simply keep coming’. Be- ever, EMP is indiscriminate and generating EMP would cause an android would be programmed to ignore any knock out friendly systems too. lost android around him, and because it would instantly adjust its mission based on constantly evolving situational How Androids potentially stack up against awareness communicated through the neural network, humans in battle operations the only way to stop an attack from succeeding would be • Physiological issues. Humans have numerous physiological to eliminate 100% of the android attacking force. That in needs. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs lists these needs as itself is demoralizing. the most basic. If these needs aren’t met, the individual’s • Numerical superiority. In human vs. human engagements mission in life defaults to securing them. Humans need the rule of thumb is an attacking force must be three times sleep, food, water, and warmth/cooling depending on greater than the defenders. Thus, a platoon attacks a sec- ambient temperature. They must defecate and urinate. tion; a company attacks a platoon and so on. I believe it An army marches on its stomach. Humans stop working would be possible for an android force to defeat a human without food and water. They also need shelter, clothing. force with a lower ratio due to the implicit advantages of Fulfilling these needs for soldiers deployed in the field androids in communications, maintaining effectiveness requires a robust and well-functioning supply chain. despite minor battle damage, and ability to rapidly repair That is why attacking military supply chains is such an and return to service. effective strategy. • Dealing with battlefield casualties.When a human is hit, • Androids require electrical power. They operate on own the injury can vary from fatal to minor. Even a minor power until expended. They require replacement power. injury can immobilize a soldier due to the psychological The logistics challenge is in meeting the demand for effect, shock. replacement batteries and/or providing a recharging ca- The human reaction is to stop fighting and preserve the self. pability. The supply chain for androids would be different Because humans bond during military training and oper- but still necessary. There is a need of a supply chain for ations, buddies will stop to give aid to seriously wounded weapon resupply anyway. Resupply could be done via comrades. Thus, a single battlefield injury can take out drone akin to Amazon package delivery. multiple soldiers from the fight as they render aid. This is • Battle rhythm. For humans, battle rhythm and opera- why the majority of weapons are designed to wound, not tional tempo revolves around daylight. Night is used kill. The wounded have a psychological impact on their for rest and resupply. Night attacks are possible but re- comrades. They scream in pain, they cry for help, they sult in higher casualties and fewer successful missions. moan. This definitely degrades morale. Androids don’t Androids don’t sleep. Androids can be resupplied at any care if they are hit. They can be programmed to self-assess time. Androids can operate well at night due to sensors. and determine what function they can still perform in a Battle rhythm becomes one-sided since it is moot for fight. If an android loses mobility, it can still drag itself to android combat units. Asymmetry in operations favours a firing position and provide covering fire. If an android androids. Night attacks by androids can wear down hu- loses its weapon firing ability, it can still use its sensors to man units by denying rest and resupply. locate targets and relay those coordinates to other nodes • Esprit de corps, maintenance of morale, psychological effects. in the unit to engage the target. They can be programmed Soldiers are emotional beings. Soldiers fight for their to provide different capabilities in various degraded states. friends. Fear is contagious. Leadership puts significant Many recipients of the highest military honours—VC, effort into building esprit de corps and maintaining mo- Medal of Honour—were awarded posthumously for rale. Battles have been lost by superior forces due to loss bravery displayed while wounded. Why? Because it is ex- of morale. Psychological operations focus on eroding ceptional for humans to continue to fight when wounded. the enemy’s will to fight. If soldiers feel a fight is unwin- Androids would do this by programming as the norm. nable, they will quit fighting. During WWII, Americans • Acceleration of new anti-android weapons. Humans know in the Pacific theatre were found bayoneted by Japanese how to kill, wound and incapacitate other humans. The soldiers—and their rifle magazines were full. The Amer- focus would rapidly turn to neutralizing or destroying icans were killed without ever having fired a single shot. androids. Unless androids start to invent other ways to kill

JANUARY–FEBRUARY 19 15 humans (I hope Stephen Hawking is wrong) the methods without human direction? Would removing war to defeat humans are constrained by the ideas of other from the purview of humans unleash another, humans. Androids are merely the means of attaining a more unconstrained, weapons race? desired outcome. An open letter published during the 2015 Interna- • Androids do have vulnerabilities. The most likely tactic tional Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence would be to cause intense battlefield damage to an android warned that autonomous weapons “require no attacking force and disrupt the supply chain of power and costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will repair parts. Other weapons have the problem of being become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant indiscriminate—air detonating a nuclear explosion to pro- military powers to mass produce. duce a battlefield EMP would take out our own equipment Will an era of increasingly automated conflict be, and is self-defeating. This would be similar to the use of on balance, more peaceful or more violent? RAND poison gas during WWI, which often blew back into the researchers have called for an analytical framework trenches of those deploying it. and an international approach to address the use • Obeying the rules of war and the Geneva Convention: bat- of long-range armed drones in counter-terrorism tlefield surrender, the wounded, POWs, forbidden weapons. and targeted killing.” The rules of war state that if an enemy drops his weapons and surrenders, he is to be taken prisoner. If an enemy is In Philosophical Quarterly (Philosophical Quarterly 66 wounded, he is to be cared for. If a prisoner, they are to (263):302-22 (2016), Thomas .W Simpson & Vincent C. Müller be provided with food, water, shelter, and latrines. published a paper entitled Just war and robots’ killings (https:// In battle, there is a prohibition about using certain philpapers.org/rec/SIMJWA). In it they state: types of weapons (mines, White Phosphorus on personnel, plastic fragmentation weapons, NBC…) Since androids “We defend the moral permissibility of killer aren’t human, this opens up the possibility of them being robots, but on the basis of the non-aggregative intentionally programmed to perform inhuman acts. structure of right assumed by Just War theory… Androids don’t require food or water or shelter. All they An implication of our argument is that there is need is power. If their logistics supply chain is focused a public responsibility to regulate killer robots’ on supplying power and spare parts to repair androids, design and manufacture.” there won’t be any food or water for prisoners. In fact, prisoners become a significant logistical headache, so why While this philosophical argument may give some in keep prisoners at all? Androids may be programmed to the West psychological comfort, this argument is moot (and simply kill soldiers who surrender. incredibly naive) because it is based on the false premise that • Androids likely wouldn’t have the physical dexterity to all states will obey international law. Recent international in- perform first aid on the wounded. Again, the wounded cidents, such as the Russian downing of MH 17 over Ukraine, may simply be killed as part of the android’s programming. murdering 283 civilian passengers, dashes this hope. Since androids aren’t vulnerable to lack of oxygen, or sus- And the worst-case scenario is... ceptible to nuclear fallout or Biological/chemical weapons, the command element behind the androids may deploy Just like the game theory “The Prisoner’s Dilemma” - a these weapons against a human force. very simple yet powerful game—humans will realize the only way to defeat an android army is with an android army. Philosophical Issues at Play Android vs. android then becomes a war of attrition—who In the Rand Corporation Blog: AI’s Promise and Risks can build and deploy an android army faster than the other by Marjory S. Blumenthal, Andrew Parasiliti and Ali Wyne, side. And just as the two sides in WWI bogged down for three they ask: How Will AI Impact Warfare? Which decisions should years in trench warfare due to amazing killing power but no be entrusted to AI? Which should remain in human hands? mobility, this scenario could quickly reach that point. Unless the rules of engagement in the use of this weapon system are “Proponents of armed drones contend that such clearly articulated, agreed to, and are made truly enforceable, weapons can strike targets with far greater accura- rogue parties will abuse such systems by deploying them cy than humans; the larger a role they play in com- against civilians, POWs, leadership etc., as has been done in bat theaters, the thinking runs, the less frequently the past with other systems (mass bombing, unrestricted sub- service members would have to deploy into harm’s marine warfare, banned chemical agents) leading inevitably way. But what if such weapons become sufficiently to stalemate stasis at great cost to human capital and natural independent that they operate independently, resources. 

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