Food Price Inflation and Food Security: a Morocco Case Study L’Inflation Des Prix Des Aliments Et La Sécurité Alimentaire : Une Étude De Cas Du Maroc
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Food Price Inflation and Food Security: A Morocco case study L’inflation des prix des aliments et la sécurité alimentaire : une étude de cas du Maroc Gabriel A. Huppé Sabrina Shaw Jason Dion Vivek Voora January 2013 www.iisd.org © 2013 The International Institute for Sustainable Development © 2013 The International Institute for Sustainable Development Published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development. International Institute for Sustainable Development The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) contributes to sustainable development by advancing policy recommendations on international trade and investment, economic policy, climate change and energy, and management of natural and social capital, as well as the enabling role of communication technologies in these areas. We report on international negotiations and disseminate knowledge gained through collaborative projects, resulting in more rigorous research, capacity building in developing countries, better networks spanning the North and the South, and better global connections among researchers, practitioners, citizens and policy-makers. IISD’s vision is better living for all—sustainably; its mission is to champion innovation, enabling societies to live sustainably. IISD is registered as a charitable organization in Canada and has 501(c)(3) status in the United States. IISD receives core operating support from the Government of Canada, provided through the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), and from the Province of Manitoba. The Institute receives project funding from numerous governments inside and outside Canada, United Nations agencies, foundations and the private sector. Head Office 161 Portage Avenue East, 6th Floor, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3B 0Y4 Tel: +1 (204) 958-7700 | Fax: +1 (204) 958-7710 | Website: www.iisd.org Food Price Inflation and Food Security: A Morocco case study L’inflation des prix des aliments et la sécurité alimentaire : une étude de cas du Maroc January 2013 Written by Gabriel A. Huppé, Sabrina Shaw, Jason Dion and Vivek Voora IISD REPORT JANUARY© 2013 2013 The International Institute for Sustainable Development Food Price Inflation and Food Security: A Morocco case study ii Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Summary for Policy-Makers .............................................................................................................................................................................3 Résumé directif ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Résumé à l’Intention des décideurs ..............................................................................................................................................................10 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................15 2.0 Food Price Inflation ....................................................................................................................................................................................17 2.1 Factors That Cause Food Price Inflation .....................................................................................................................................18 2.1.1 Growing Demand From Developing Countries.............................................................................................................18 2.1.2 Changing Structure of Demand ........................................................................................................................................19 2.1.3 Energy Prices ...........................................................................................................................................................................19 2.1.4 Biofuels .....................................................................................................................................................................................20 2.1.5 Weather-Related Production Shortfalls..........................................................................................................................21 2.1.6 Stock Levels .............................................................................................................................................................................21 2.1.7 Operations on the Financial Market ...............................................................................................................................22 2.1.8 Short-Term Trade Policy Choices ...................................................................................................................................23 2.1.9 Exchange Rate Swings ........................................................................................................................................................23 2.1.10 Growing Scarcity of Viable Agricultural Land ...........................................................................................................24 2.1.11 Under-Investment ................................................................................................................................................................24 2.1.12 Interlinkages ..........................................................................................................................................................................25 2.2 Projections and Determinants .....................................................................................................................................................25 2.3 Impacts of Food Price Inflation ....................................................................................................................................................26 2.3.1 Rural and Urban Populations ............................................................................................................................................27 2.3.2 Influence on Diets ................................................................................................................................................................29 2.3.3 Stress and Potential Social Unrest .................................................................................................................................30 2.3.4 Other—Macroeconomic ....................................................................................................................................................31 3.0 Food Security ..............................................................................................................................................................................................32 4.0 The Trade and Food Security Nexus ...................................................................................................................................................35 5.0 Morocco Case Study ...............................................................................................................................................................................38 5.1 The Green Morocco Plan ..................................................................................................................................................................41 5.2 Food Security and Trade in Morocco .........................................................................................................................................43 5.3 Lentils .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 44 5.4 Impact of Reducing Import Tariffs on Lentils ..........................................................................................................................47 IISD REPORT JANUARY© 2013 2013 The International Institute for Sustainable Development Food Price Inflation and Food Security: A Morocco case study iii 6.0 Policy Responses to the Food Price Inflation, Food Security and Trade Nexus .....................................................................51 6.1 Global .....................................................................................................................................................................................................51 6.1.1 Reduce or Eliminate Food Import Duties .......................................................................................................................51 6.1.2 Export Restrictions ...............................................................................................................................................................52 6.1.3 Price Controls .........................................................................................................................................................................52 6.1 4 Drawing on and Building Food Grain Stocks ...............................................................................................................53 6.1.5 Safety Net Measures ...........................................................................................................................................................53