9 Supported by: In cooperation with: The Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2019 aims to contribute to the understanding of Latvia’s foreign and security policy decisions and considerations in 2018, as well as assess the opportunities and concerns that await Latvia in 2019. During the past year Latvia saw considerable improvements in its security situation, while simultaneously met with new international and regional challenges. 2019 promises to be a similarly dynamic year full of opportunities and challenges. Latvia will have to make brave and strong choices in its foreign and security policy. Supported by: The Parliament of the Republic of Latvia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia In cooperation with: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Editors: Andris Sprūds, Elizabete Vizgunova, Sintija Broka Authors: Māris Andžāns, Reinis Āboltiņš, Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Sintija Broka, Lolita Čigāne, Justīne Elferte, Ilze Garoza, Vineta Kleinberga, Ojārs Ēriks Kalniņš, Andis Kudors, Rihards Kols, Imants Lieģis, Gunta Pastore, Diāna Potjomkina, Edgars Rinkēvičs, Toms Rostoks, Ojārs Skudra, Andris Sprūds, Otto Tabuns, Vita Tērauda, Everita Nensija Trankale, Elizabete Vizgunova. Project coordinators: Elizabete Vizgunova, Sintija Broka The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Parliament of the Republic of Latvia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia or Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or represent the opinion of any government authority or ministry. Translation from Latvian: Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Līvija Uskale, Reinis Āboltiņš, Ieva Raudsepa English language editor: Talis Saule Archdeacon Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns Cover design: Kristīne Plūksna-Zvagule This book is published in collaboration with the Publishers “Hansa Print Riga” © Authors of the articles, 2019 © Translation: Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Līvija Uskale, Reinis Āboltiņš, Ieva Raudsepa, 2019 ISBN 978-9934-567-32-2 © Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns, 2019 UDK 327(474.3) © Cover design: Kristīne Plūksna-Zvagule, 2019 La 801 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD Andris Sprūds . 5 ADDRESS BY THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS Edgars Rinkēvičs ............................................................. 7 FOREIGN POLICY—THE GUARANTOR OF LATVIAN INDEPENDENCE Rihards Kols ................................................................. 11 LATVIA IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A VISION AND “TO DO” LIST FOR THE YEARS TO COME—2019, A YEAR OF CHANGES ON ALL FRONTS Vita Tērauda ................................................................ 18 LATVIAN FOREIGN POLICY AT 100: FROM ROOTS TO BRANCHES Ojārs Ēriks Kalniņš ........................................................... 23 THE EU: MUDDLING THROUGH Lolita Čigāne ................................................................ 31 THE NATIONAL INTERESTS OF LATVIA IN A GEOPOLITICAL AND GEOECONOMIC CONTEXT Ojārs Skudra ................................................................ 43 SUNSHINE AND THUNDER IN LATVIA’S FOREIGN POLICY Imants Lieģis ................................................................ 66 THROUGH RESTLESS WINDS: LATVIA IN THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2018 AND 2019 Vineta Kleinberga ........................................................... 76 LATVIA’S DEFENCE IN 2018. MORE MONEY— MORE OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Māris Andžāns .............................................................. 96 BUILDING DETERRENCE INTERNALLLY AND EXTERNALLY: IS LATVIA CAPABLE OF BECOMING DAVID? Toms Rostoks .............................................................. 109 LATVIA AND THE US: PRECARIOUS STABILITY? Diāna Potjomkina, Justīne Elferte .............................................123 LATVIA AND RUSSIA: PHYSICALLY NEAR, FAR APART IN THOUGHTS Andis Kudors ............................................................... 138 LATVIA’S “CHINA POLICY” AND THE ROLE OF THE “16+1” Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova ........................................... 152 POSITIVE DYNAMICS IN CENTRAL ASIA— OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATVIA? Gunta Pastore .............................................................. 158 LATVIA AND THE GULF REGION: CHOOSING BETWEEN INTERESTS, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PRINCIPLES? Sintija Broka, Everita Nensija Trankale ......................................... 169 THE THREE SEAS INITIATIVE AND LATVIA: AN ATTEMPT TO SPLIT EUROPE OR TO COMPLEMENT IT? Elizabete Vizgunova ........................................................ 181 CHANGES IN THE ENERGY SECTOR: TO BE CONTINUED Reinis Āboltiņš .............................................................196 THE MOBILISATION AND POLITICISATION OF LATVIAN DIASPORA AND REDEFINING LATVIAN DIASPORA POLICY Ilze Garoza ................................................................. 205 LATVIA’S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY— THE BEST “SELFIE” FOR THE NEXT CENTENARY Otto Tabuns ............................................................... 219 CONTRIBUTORS........................................................ 233 FOREWORD Andris Sprūds, Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Professor at Riga Stradiņš University In this year’s Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook, the Latvian Institute of International Affairs continues to examine Latvia’s international challenges and choices, to inform society of these, and to issue recommendations for foreign policy shapers and decision-makers. This publication analyses the events and decisions of 2018 and attempts to outline Latvian foreign and security policy scenarios and recommendations for 2019. The past year has brought several major challenges to the international system. Within the European Union, the Brexit process is underway, the outcomes and consequences of which remain to be seen. Differences between EU member states have also arisen, despite hopes that the wave of populism might slow down after the 2017 elections in Germany and France. The international rhetoric and policy of the president of the US, Donald Trump, add a certain level of unpredictability to the system. At the same time, the US has stuck to its commitments to strengthen security on the eastern flank of NATO. Possibly the most important lesson that can be drawn from the conclusions of the authors and editors of this volume is that none of the current principles of the Euroatlantic alliance are self-evident, and a continuous fight for the fulfilment of those principles is necessary. The ambitions of other great powers, primarily Russia and China, to play a bigger role in regional and international processes are also evident. The goal of the yearbook is to examine Latvia’s view of the changing international environment, as well as of outside threats, security promotion activities, relations with neighbouring states, migration, and major infrastructure projects. Despite the changing nature of the international order, throughout its history Latvia has been characterised by its geographical position at the intersection of great powers—the interests of which Latvia has attempted to address by political and diplomatic means. It has to be pointed out that if this publication were to be compared with an analogous yearbook from another EU or NATO member state, it would become clear that perceptions of threats, friends, and challenges are often quite different across member states. The external and internal challenges that Latvia will have to face in the future will require developing long-term strategies in all nationally significant sectors, as well 5 as establishing a stable economic, political, and security environment. Only in such an environment it is possible to foster a resilient and cohesive society—a society able to overcome asymmetric attempts to destabilise and divide it. It is with this hope that the team at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs enters the second centenary of Latvia: hope that our country will have the conviction to continue to pursue a proactive, Euroatlantic-centred, and effective foreign and defence policy. Partnership and cooperation are crucial for the ability to reach a successful outcome. The 2019 yearbook reflects the importance of cooperation—the book has benefited immensely from the desire of our Latvian experts to share their opinions and recommendations. We are grateful for the support of the Saeima—and especially the Foreign Affairs Committee and the European Affairs Committee, for their significant contribution to foreign affairs research and awareness building. The support given by the Saeima has permitted us to prepare this publication in two languages, as well as to organise several regional debates including Saeima representatives, with the goal of informing the general public of different opinions and positions on important foreign affairs issues. The LIIA has a productive mutual cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that allows us to form a bridge between policy-makers and think-tanks. Also, the long-standing and generous support provided by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation has been irreplaceable. The foundation has yet again demonstrated its commitment to the promotion of intellectual discussions and the exchange of opinions on both national and international levels, providing indispensable input into an informed discussion between decision-makers, experts, and the wider Latvian society. Lastly, we would like to thank our readers, who are interested in understanding the challenges and perspectives