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QUARTERLY REPORT 4Th QUARTER 2017 IP-Participações

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QUARTERLY REPORT 4Th QUARTER 2017 IP-Participações QUARTERLY REPORT 4th QUARTER 2017 IP-Participações Ilustração: Cecilia Abeid This document is published exclusively for the purpose of providing information and conferring transparency to the management carried out by IP Capital Partners, is not the Offering Memorandums of the IP Fund SPC (“Fund”) and is not to be considered as an offer for the sale of Shares of the Fund or of any other security. The Fund is prohibited from making any invitation to the public in The Cayman Islands to subscribe for any of their Shares. Shares may be subscribed for by exempted or ordinary non-resident companies or other exempted or non-resident entities established in The Cayman Islands. Shares of the Fund may not be offered or sold within the United States or to any US Person. The Fund may not be sold, redeemed or transferred in Brazil. The offer and sale of Shares of the Fund in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. Before subscribing for the Shares, each prospective investor should (i) carefully read and retain the Offering Memorandums of the Funds and the relevant Annex in respect of the Class of Shares; (ii) consult with his/her/its own counsel and advisors as to all legal, tax, regulatory, financial and related matters concerning an investment in the Fund. Past performance does not guarantee future results. IP Capital Partners takes no responsibility for the accidental publication of incorrect information, nor for investment decisions taken based on this material. Access to this document or use of the services or information provided herein is prohibited by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law, rule or regulation. INDEX IP-Participações 04 Miscellaneous 13 Performance 15 IP-Participações Class 16 IP-PARTICIPAÇÕES The main positive contributions in 2017 came from the effect of Panvel’s stock volatility during those investments in Berkshire Hathaway (+21.6% in 2017), years, the fund would have risen by 28.2% in 2016 and Itaúsa/Itaú (+37.8%), Amazon (+55.9%), Alphabet 28.2% in 2017, instead of 49.3% and 10%, respectively. (Google, +35.6%), B3 (+40.9%) and Wells Fargo (+13.2%). The good news is 2018 starts with shares trading at a Additionally, there were minor contributions from rather attractive level. At R$400 per share, the company Apple (+48.5%), Danaher (+20.0%), Energisa (+50.5%), trades at an estimated sales multiple of a mere 0.75 for Anheuser-Busch InBev (+9.7%), Thermo Fisher (+35%), 2018 – assuming real sales growth will remain in line Goldman Sachs (+7.7%) and Nike (+24.7%).1 The last with the company’s results of recent years. three positions have already been closed. PORTFOLIO One of the few detractors – the only significant and by far the largest – was Panvel. After rising by a hefty Given the strong share price gains in the last months 132.2% in 2016, shares fell by 40% in 2017, resulting of 2017, we continued to trim some positions – not in a negative contribution of 6.3%2 to IP-Participações without some hesitation. during the year. It has been a pleasure to watch and participate in PANVEL (DIMED) the value creation of remarkable companies such as Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Itaúsa/Itaú, Berkshire Despite the drop in 2017, Panvel has appreciated by Hathaway, Danaher, B3, Energisa, among others. 39% in the past two years. The stock price volatility On the other hand, in some cases, prices have been contrasts with the stability of the business, which has moving ahead of value. How can one solve this been recording consistent and improving results. dilemma? Selling is not without its risks. Imagine the As mentioned in previous reports, the lower liquidity bitter regret of investors who were shareholders of and share price volatility, although an inconvenience, Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon, Ambev, Souza Cruz or do not prevent us from participating in the evolution of Itaú 10 or 20 years ago but decided to sell their shares the business. Panvel is a high quality asset with highly because they became“too expensive”. predictable results and a long runway for growth over the Our most common and costly mistake over time has coming years. Moreover, there is always the possibility been to prematurely sell investments in extraordinary that the liquidity may be mitigated in the future. businesses. The truly exceptional companies often IP-Participações’ cumulative returns in 2016 and 2017 positively surprise us and create more value than we – were 64.4%. Hypothetically, if we could smooth out and a large share of the market – are able to anticipate. 1 Returns in USD for companies abroad and in BRL for companies in Brazil. 2 Total contribution of common and preferred shares. Quarterly Report | Fouth Quarter 2017 4 Over the years, we have adjusted the frequency of income of US$55 billion in 2017 – approximately our most significant reductions to occur only when 8% of Switzerland’s GDP. market prices truly offset this “risk”. • A Japanese entrepreneur raises US$70 billion At the end of the day, we seek balance. As markets show for a US$100 billion fund to invest in disruptive increasing signs of over-heating, our conservative technologies – and is already planning another one. temperament tends to prevail. We have slowly • According to research3, a little over three in trimmed some investments, increased the funds’ cash every ten workers in South Korea have already and spent slightly more on hedges preparing for a “invested” in some type of cryptocurrency. bigger market downturn. • Daily variations of 5%, 10%, 20% and even 30% in We do not make investment decisions based on macro cryptocurrency prices. concerns but, as long-term investors, we are aware • Over US$600 billion in market cap for the dozens that markets are cyclical and are subject to shocks of cryptocurrencies. every so often. As such, it is useful to try to “take the temperature” of current market conditions. • A Sports bra company changes its name to “The Crypto Co” and shares rise from US$10 to US$575, Some signs: reaching over US$10 billion in market value, only • 2017 was the S&P 500’s 9th consecutive positive to fall by 98% to US$11 in the next few days. year. And what a year: +21.83%. • Art prices reach new records and paintings are • Nearly a decade of monetary stimulus from the sold for hundreds of millions of dollars. world’s main central banks, with negative real • Most emerging market stock indexes trade near interest rates and some trillions of U.S. dollars maximum historical levels. injected into the markets. The above message is loud and clear: the world has • Funding costs for companies from developed been swimming in liquidity for a while, with direct countries are at a historic low. Bad businesses and indirect impacts to asset prices. And this will with access to cheap capital. Bombs ahead? possibly begin to unwind. The Fed has already started • The Swiss National Bank manages a portfolio of to increase interest rates, removing liquidity from the nearly US$800 billion in bonds and stocks. Reports markets. The European Central Bank indicates a similar 3 https://news.bitcoin.com/31-of-south-korean-workers-are-cryptocurrency-investors/ IP-Participações 5 IP-PARTICIPAÇÕES path for 2018. If the ample liquidity had such positive years: Danaher. effects on asset prices, how strong will the headwind * * * be if this situation is reversed? DANAHER On the other hand, Trump’s tax reform will boost results of U.S. companies. This is good news for our “When I heard, I said Dana-who? We all had misgivings. A investments in Berkshire Hathaway and Wells Fargo, US company with no experience in medical instruments; not only given the lower taxes they will incur but if they bought us, what could they possibly add? All the also the possible secondary effects from the reform prejudices about American management style surfaced; (slightly higher interest rates?). In any case, we are not brash, political, short-term view, only interested in convinced these tax cuts are sustainable in the long profits. I heard about the Danaher Business System and term and are therefore cautious about factoring this thought, this might be real, or it could just be a public benefit into our estimates. relations stunt. We were in for a big surprise. Our investments in Brazilian companies, such as They took much the same approach as the rest, but a Itaúsa/Itaú, Energisa, B3 and M. Dias Branco continue number of things stood out. First, they wanted to talk to to report good results and trade at reasonable customers; this made a lot of sense to us. Then, they insisted prices. Nevertheless, we continue to tone down our on walking the floor of our factories. This we couldn’t enthusiasm as we face the country’s harsh reality. understand. What did they know about manufacturing There is still a lot to be done to put the country on the medical equipment? We also saw Danaher’s CEO, Larry right track –many risks and uncertainties that will not Culp, take a very intense and personal interest in the vanish in the short term – which, in most cases, is not details of our business. And then there were the questions; reflected in prices. endless questions; ten times more than anyone else. The CONCLUSION level of due diligence was impressive. 4 Despite the slightly more cautious tone of this report, Peter Kürstein, CEO of Radiometer – a we are pleased with our investments. One of the company acquired by Danaher in 2003 advantages of investing in truly top-tier companies Some of our clients have the same reaction when we is that they are accustomed to overcoming obstacles.
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