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2012 Wind Technologies Market Report

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2012 Wind Technologies Market Report 2012 WIND TECHNOLOGIES MARKET REPORT AUGUST 2013 This report is being disseminated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). As such, this document was prepared in compliance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for fiscal year 2001 (public law 106-554) and information quality guidelines issued by DOE. Though this report does not constitute “influential” information, as that term is defined in DOE’s information quality guidelines or the Office of Management and Budget’s Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review, the study was reviewed both internally and externally prior to publication. For purposes of external review, the study benefited from the advice and comments of five wind industry and trade association representatives, seven consultants, three federal laboratory staff, and one U.S. Government employee. NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: [email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: ntis.gov/ordering.htm 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report Primary authors Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory With contributions from Galen Barbose, Naïm Darghouth, Ben Hoen, Andrew Mills, Samantha Weaver (Berkeley Lab) Kevin Porter, Michael Buckley, Sari Fink (Exeter Associates) Frank Oteri, Suzanne Tegen (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Table of Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... i List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................... ii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 2. Installation Trends ................................................................................................................... 3 3. Industry Trends ...................................................................................................................... 14 4. Cost Trends ............................................................................................................................ 32 5. Performance Trends .............................................................................................................. 42 6. Wind Power Price Trends ..................................................................................................... 49 7. Policy and Market Drivers .................................................................................................... 55 8. Future Outlook ........................................................................................................................ 69 Appendix: Sources of Data Presented in this Report ........................................................... 72 References .................................................................................................................................. 76 Acknowledgments For their support of this ongoing report series, the authors thank the entire U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind & Water Power Technology Office team and, in particular, Patrick Gilman, Cash Fitzpatrick, Mark Higgins, and Rich Tusing. For reviewing elements of this report or providing key input, we also acknowledge: Eric Lantz and Ted James (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL); Liz Salerno, Emily Williams, and Michael Goggin (American Wind Energy Association, AWEA); Cash Fitzpatrick, Liz Hartman, and Larry Mansueti (DOE); Alice Orrell (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Andrew David (U.S. International Trade Commission); Matthew Kaplan (IHS-EER); Charlie Smith (UVIG); Ed DeMeo (Renewable Energy Consulting Services); Ed Weston (GLWN); and Matthew McCabe (Clear Wind). We greatly appreciate AWEA for the use of their comprehensive database of wind power projects. We also thank Amy Grace (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) for the use of Bloomberg NEF’s graphic on domestic wind turbine nacelle assembly capacity; Charlie Bloch, Terese Decker, and Bruce Hamilton (Navigant Consulting) for assistance with the section on offshore wind; Donna Heimiller and Billy Roberts (NREL) for assistance with the wind project and wind manufacturing maps as well as for assistance in mapping wind resource quality; Kathleen O’Dell (NREL) for assistance with layout, formatting, and production; and Jarett Zuboy (consultant) for editorial assistance. Berkeley Lab’s contributions to this report were funded by the Wind & Water Power Technology Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors are solely responsible for any omissions or errors contained herein. 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report i List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AWEA American Wind Energy Association Bloomberg NEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance BPA Bonneville Power Administration CAISO California Independent System Operator CREZ Competitive Renewable Energy Zone DOE U.S. Department of Energy EDPR EDP Renováveis EEI Edison Electric Institute EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GE General Electric Corporation GW gigawatt HTS Harmonized Tariff Schedule ICE IntercontinentalExchange IOU investor-owned utility IPP independent power producer ISO independent system operator ISO-NE New England Independent System Operator ITC investment tax credit kV kilovolt kVA kilovolt-amp kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LIBOR London Interbank Offered Rate m2 square meter MAPP Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MTEP12 MISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2012 MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSP Northern States Power Company NYISO New York Independent System Operator O&M operations and maintenance OEM original equipment manufacturer PATH Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report ii PGE Portland General Electric PJM PJM Interconnection POU publicly owned utility PPA power purchase agreement PSCo Public Service Company of Colorado PTC production tax credit REC renewable energy certificate RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative RPS renewables portfolio standard RTO regional transmission organization SPP Southwest Power Pool SPS Southwestern Public Service Company USITC U.S. International Trade Commission W watt WAPA Western Area Power Administration 2012 Wind Technologies Market Report iii Executive Summary Annual wind power capacity additions in the United States achieved record levels in 2012, motivated by the then-planned expiration of federal tax incentives at the end of 2012 and recent improvements in the cost and performance of wind power technology. At the same time, even with a short-term extension of federal tax incentives now in place, the U.S. wind power industry is facing uncertain times. It will take time to rebuild the project pipeline, ensuring a slow year for new capacity additions in 2013. Continued low natural gas prices, modest electricity demand growth, and limited near-term demand from state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) have also put a damper on industry growth expectations. In combination with global competition within the sector, these trends continue to impact the manufacturing supply chain. What these trends mean for the medium to longer term remains to be seen, dictated in part by future natural gas prices, fossil plant retirements, and policy decisions, although recent declines in the price of wind energy have boosted the prospects for future growth. Key findings from this year’s Wind Technologies Market Report include: • Wind Power Additions Hit a New Record in 2012, with 13.1 GW of New Capacity Added in the United States and $25 Billion Invested. Wind power installations in 2012 were more than 90% higher than in 2011 and 30% greater than the previous record in 2009. Cumulative
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